GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[MT Treasurer]

Yep.

Research shows that special elections are more in line with the most recent presidential vote than with the most recent house race.

Probably true, but that's definitely not going to be the case in Montana.

[MT Treasurer]

I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana

Democrats always troubled by what they were/are/becoming.

I don't necessarily disagree, but Quist could have won this race without breaking a sweat had he actually run a good campaign. In fact, Republicans should be glad that (a) he turned out to be a poor candidate and (b) that Gianforte has run a decent campaign. But like Figueira said, the race certainly isn't over yet, and I'd still rate it Tossup/Tilt R given the high floor Quist has.

My point about internal polls not always being wrong stands. Ossoff at 48% and Handel at 47% isn't implausible, especially if the undecideds are Republican-leaning Independents. Like Bacon and Castro said, I'm sure this was released to motivate Ossoff supporters and donors and not get complacent.

[MT Treasurer]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Wow. I still think this will go down to the wire, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Republican Leaning Pollster.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250974.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249194.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201912.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201571.0

Doesn't strike me as very Republican-leaning.

[MT Treasurer]

Well it should be pointed out Landmark Communications polled Ossoff really under

Take a look at the RCP average. While they did have Ossoff at 45%, they were still the most accurate pollster.

I agree with GeorgiaModerate. This is a MoE race.

[MT Treasurer]

Why isn't Handel leading with numbers like these?

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, after all that money, attention and hype the party that loses this race by 1 or 2 points is going to be very disappointed, to say the least.

[MT Treasurer]

Actually, most networks had ND and IN as Tossups on election day, and IN was definitely considered to be in play. For some reason, McCain did significantly better in ND than predicted, though. Maybe the polling there just sucked.

[MT Treasurer]

So what would the GA posters say is the most likely outcome right now? I think there's a good chance that it will go down to the wire, but the momentum is probably with Ossoff, right? I'm beginning to think that Republicans might be wasting a ton of money here and that the race has basically already been decided in Ossoff's favor.

[MT Treasurer]

WHOA

SurveyUSA poll of GA-6: Ossoff +7 (!)

Jon Ossoff - 51%
Karen Handel - 44%
Undecided - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

Yeah, like I said...

I'm beginning to think that Republicans might be wasting a ton of money here and that the race has basically already been decided in Ossoff's favor.

[MT Treasurer]

No that's what I mean Ossoff has been "touch me see me feel me" all over the place

As long as he doesn't take this literally....

[MT Treasurer]

Oh God, not McDonald again. I'm getting 2016 flashbacks from this.

That being said, Ossoff should win 51-49 or so. This is not the same as MT.

[MT Treasurer]

How much is Ossoff expected to win the early vote by? And what margin does Handel need with election day voters in order to win? I assume things here aren't as complicated in Montana.

[MT Treasurer]

This is probably a stupid question, but why is the early vote in GA-06 generally Republican-leaning? Didn't Ossoff win it in a landslide in April?

[MT Treasurer]

Ossoff has ran a great campaign and was a very good candidate. Regardless of how this race turns out or your political views you have to admit that.

No, he's a prop-up if he loses. A prop-up who ate money that could've gone to TWO districts that were competitive, one of which had a +20 edge against and moved left by 14!

A handsome looking one, but still a prop-up.

1.) Quist really was an uninspiring candidate who ran a pretty awful campaign. Ossoff is obviously a better candidate, and Handel's campaign strikes me as significantly worse-run than Gianforte's.
2.) Comparing the results of a special Cogressional election with the 2016 presidential results, especially in a state like Montana, is incredibly misleading.