Which of these Democratic states will be the first to go Republican?

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'm going with New York.

[SingingAnalyst]

Because of its relative lack of organized Democratic (as opposed to Green or liberal or left-wing) strength, and its low ethnic minority population, I'm going to go with VT.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Because of its relative lack of organized Democratic (as opposed to Green or liberal or left-wing) strength, and its low ethnic minority population, I'm going to go with VT.

I would've guessed Vermont had it not been for the fact that it still trended Democratic from 2012-2016 and Bernie Sander's strong influence over the Party's future from here on out.

[Nyvin]

Because of its relative lack of organized Democratic (as opposed to Green or liberal or left-wing) strength, and its low ethnic minority population, I'm going to go with VT.

I would've guessed Vermont had it not been for the fact that it still trended Democratic from 2012-2016 and Bernie Sander's strong influence over the Party's future from here on out.

VT didn't trend Dem from 2012 to 2016.

None of the states listed will vote Republican without a major party realignment.  It's just not feasible with the current status quo.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Because of its relative lack of organized Democratic (as opposed to Green or liberal or left-wing) strength, and its low ethnic minority population, I'm going to go with VT.

I would've guessed Vermont had it not been for the fact that it still trended Democratic from 2012-2016 and Bernie Sander's strong influence over the Party's future from here on out.

VT didn't trend Dem from 2012 to 2016.

None of the states listed will vote Republican without a major party realignment.  It's just not feasible with the current status quo.

My mistake, I was thinking of the 2000-2016 trend map: Link.

[MarkD]

I'm going with New York.

I agree, based on the fact that there still is a significant Republican presence in the state Senate, which is indicative of the potential of suburban voters to return to the GOP eventually.

[DPKdebator]

I'd rank it as this:

1. VT
2. NY
3. MA
4. HI
5. MD
6. CA

[Senator-elect Spark]

VT, since it went R from 1950s to 1992

[RINO Tom]

VT, since it went R from 1950s to 1992

This sentence is so odd.  For one, it went Republican for MANY years before the 1950s, and it went Democratic (1964) during the random stretch you chose, LOL.

[Skill and Chance]

It's definitely more likely to be Hawaii or Vermont because they could both easily be swung by a large group of outsiders moving in from other parts of the country.  Indeed, that is how Vermont got started voting for Democrats in the first place.  I am going to go with Hawaii, because as in the Solid South days, there is a substantial conservative leaning bloc in the party that would bolt or at least endorse Republicans in federal races if the state ever crossed a basic threshold of competitiveness.  I also expect Republicans to slowly improve with Asian voters going forward.

[Kingpoleon]

1. Vermont
2. Hawaii
3. New York
4. Massachusetts
5. California
6. Maryland

[cvparty]

Vermont is the most volatile

[Xing]

In a massive Republican landslide, I think Vermont would be the first one to go Republican, but it would truly take a Reagan-style landslide.

[President Johnson]

Vermont, because it is more flexible than the others. Give me a bad Democratic candidate a moderate Republican and it may happen. At least it's more likely than the others.

[twenty42]

New York, 2028.

The economy stays strong into the early 2020s, and Trump gets reelected. We start to experience a minor dip in 2023-2024, and a generic D wins 2024 by 2000 margins. Said candidate takes office without a clear mandate and murky approval ratings. The stock market experiences a 2008-like crash in the summer of 2025, and the incumbent president's approval ratings hit the floor. Democrats take a severe beating in the 2026 midterms, and Ivanka Trump announces her candidacy for the presidency on January 20, 2027, the tenth anniversary of her father's inauguration. She cruises to the Republican nomination behind the slogan of "Getting Back to Greatness" and pulverizes the incumbent Democratic president by becoming the first Republican candidate to win the female vote since 1988. It is a 452-86 electoral college landslide, with Ivanka taking her native state by 0.2%.

Ivanka Trump (R)--59.2%, 452 electoral votes
Incumbent Democrat (D)--38.8%, 86 electoral votes
Tagg Romney (Pro-Life Party)--1.7%, 0 electoral votes

[cvparty]

New York, 2028.

The economy stays strong into the early 2020s, and Trump gets reelected. We start to experience a minor dip in 2023-2024, and a generic D wins 2024 by 2000 margins. Said candidate takes office without a clear mandate and murky approval ratings. The stock market experiences a 2008-like crash in the summer of 2025, and the incumbent president's approval ratings hit the floor. Democrats take a severe beating in the 2026 midterms, and Ivanka Trump announces her candidacy for the presidency on January 20, 2027, the tenth anniversary of her father's inauguration. She cruises to the Republican nomination behind the slogan of "Getting Back to Greatness" and pulverizes the incumbent Democratic president by becoming the first Republican candidate to win the female vote since 1988. It is a 452-86 electoral college landslide, with Ivanka taking her native state by 0.2%.

Ivanka Trump (R)--59.2%, 452 electoral votes
Incumbent Democrat (D)--38.8%, 86 electoral votes
Tagg Romney (Pro-Life Party)--1.7%, 0 electoral votes

cool story

[DPKdebator]

New York, 2028.

The economy stays strong into the early 2020s, and Trump gets reelected. We start to experience a minor dip in 2023-2024, and a generic D wins 2024 by 2000 margins. Said candidate takes office without a clear mandate and murky approval ratings. The stock market experiences a 2008-like crash in the summer of 2025, and the incumbent president's approval ratings hit the floor. Democrats take a severe beating in the 2026 midterms, and Ivanka Trump announces her candidacy for the presidency on January 20, 2027, the tenth anniversary of her father's inauguration. She cruises to the Republican nomination behind the slogan of "Getting Back to Greatness" and pulverizes the incumbent Democratic president by becoming the first Republican candidate to win the female vote since 1988. It is a 452-86 electoral college landslide, with Ivanka taking her native state by 0.2%.

Ivanka Trump (R)--59.2%, 452 electoral votes
Incumbent Democrat (D)--38.8%, 86 electoral votes
Tagg Romney (Pro-Life Party)--1.7%, 0 electoral votes

This scenario is very creative, if implausible.

[twenty42]

New York, 2028.

The economy stays strong into the early 2020s, and Trump gets reelected. We start to experience a minor dip in 2023-2024, and a generic D wins 2024 by 2000 margins. Said candidate takes office without a clear mandate and murky approval ratings. The stock market experiences a 2008-like crash in the summer of 2025, and the incumbent president's approval ratings hit the floor. Democrats take a severe beating in the 2026 midterms, and Ivanka Trump announces her candidacy for the presidency on January 20, 2027, the tenth anniversary of her father's inauguration. She cruises to the Republican nomination behind the slogan of "Getting Back to Greatness" and pulverizes the incumbent Democratic president by becoming the first Republican candidate to win the female vote since 1988. It is a 452-86 electoral college landslide, with Ivanka taking her native state by 0.2%.

Ivanka Trump (R)--59.2%, 452 electoral votes
Incumbent Democrat (D)--38.8%, 86 electoral votes
Tagg Romney (Pro-Life Party)--1.7%, 0 electoral votes

This scenario is very creative, if implausible.

Lol...I agree it is implausible, but it would take a high degree of implausibility for a Republican to win any of these states in the near future.