State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[ajc0918]

Absentee ballots in MO HD-50:

Michela Skelton (D)   195   
Sara Walsh (R)   81

Woohoo!

Is absentee voting not a a regular thing in MO? This seems like very low numbers

[Ebsy]

Absentee ballots in MO HD-50:

Michela Skelton (D)   195   
Sara Walsh (R)   81

Woohoo!

Is absentee voting not a a regular thing in MO? This seems like very low numbers

There is no early voting in Missouri, just absentee ballots that have to be mailed out and returned.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In a further sign of the demise of the Missouri Democratic Party, I am ready to project that Republicans have won the 50th district special election:

State Representative - District 50           18 of 27 Precincts Reported
Sara Walsh   Republican   1,409   60.214%
Michela Skelton   Democratic   931   39.786%
Total Votes:   2,340   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans win state senate 28 too:

State Senator - District 28           109 of 119 Precincts Reported
Sandy Crawford   Republican   8,417   67.934%
Albert J. Skalicky   Democratic   3,973   32.066%
    Total Votes:   12,390   

[Ebsy]

In a further sign of the demise of the Missouri Democratic Party, I am ready to project that Republicans have won the 50th district special election:

State Representative - District 50           18 of 27 Precincts Reported
Sara Walsh   Republican   1,409   60.214%
Michela Skelton   Democratic   931   39.786%
Total Votes:   2,340   

lol

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone have a page for Iowa? SOS Does not appear to. Polls close there in 17 minutes.

[Ebsy]

In a further sign of the demise of the Missouri Democratic Party, I am ready to project that Republicans have won the 50th district special election:

State Representative - District 50           18 of 27 Precincts Reported
Sara Walsh   Republican   1,409   60.214%
Michela Skelton   Democratic   931   39.786%
Total Votes:   2,340   

Well McCaskill only won the district by 5 points in 2012 as she was winning by 16 points statewide, so expecting a pickup here was kind of ridiculous.

I didn't go into it expecting a pick up but Skelton can still win. Even if she doesn't, it looks like it is going to be much closer than the partisan lean of the district.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In a further sign of the demise of the Missouri Democratic Party, I am ready to project that Republicans have won the 50th district special election:

State Representative - District 50           18 of 27 Precincts Reported
Sara Walsh   Republican   1,409   60.214%
Michela Skelton   Democratic   931   39.786%
Total Votes:   2,340   

Well McCaskill only won the district by 5 points in 2012 as she was winning by 16 points statewide, so expecting a pickup here was kind of ridiculous.

I didn't go into it expecting a pick up but Skelton can still win. Even if she doesn't, it looks like it is going to be much closer than the partisan lean of the district.

The gap is too big to make up at this point. Just 6 precincts left now:

State Representative - District 50           21 of 27 Precincts Reported
Sara Walsh   Republican   2,219   56.825%
Michela Skelton   Democratic   1,686   43.175%
    Total Votes:   3,905   
            

[MarkD]

The gap is too big to make up at this point. Just 6 precincts left now:

State Representative - District 50           21 of 27 Precincts Reported
Sara Walsh   Republican   2,219   56.825%
Michela Skelton   Democratic   1,686   43.175%
    Total Votes:   3,905   
            

It appears that the six precincts not reported yet are all in Boone County, where at least 2/3s of the votes are cast for the whole district, and that is where Skelton is narrowly ahead.
Boone County Clerk's report, time 8:34 CST:
Sara Walsh (Rep) ........... 1,022
Michela SKelton (Dem) .... 1,122

I'm not surprised that the Cole County, Cooper County, and Moniteau County portions of the district would all be very heavily Republican, but their combined populations are only 1/3 of the whole district, while 2/3s of the population lives in Boone County.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That lead is only a fifth of what would be needed to catch up. My projection isn't about the margin, it merely states that the republican will remain in the lead.

[MarkD]

That lead is only a fifth of what would be needed to catch up. My projection isn't about the margin, it merely states that the republican will remain in the lead.

I agree; Walsh will win, and I'm not surprised. I was a little off, btw, about how much of the population is in Cole, Cooper, and Moniteau counties combined: they're only a little over 26% of the district, so nearly 74% is in Boone County. But if Skelton wins Boone, she won't win it by a margin big enough to overcome how badly she lost in the other three.

[Ebsy]

Just 300 votes short.

[Ebsy]

So much for the district being noncompetitive. This is a major overperformance downballot considering the inelasticity of the district. 17 point swing.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone have a page for Iowa? SOS Does not appear to.

[Ebsy]

So much for the district being noncompetitive. This is a major overperformance downballot considering the inelasticity of the district. 16 point swing.

Considering it's only 9 points net worse than McCaskill's performance (and about matches what she got in vote share) it's not bad for MO Dems at all.

If this result is replicated, there will be quite a few more Democrats in the State House of Representatives in 2019.

Skelton actually outperformed Kander by about 4 points in this district, if you can believe that.

[jamestroll]

Hopefully we can pick up legislative seats in the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs next year.

But I am tired of these near victories. 52 R to 48 D.

[JGibson]

Hopefully we can pick up legislative seats in the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs next year.

But I am tired of these near victories. 52 R to 48 D.

It's past time to whittle the GOP supermajorities down in the Missouri Senate and the House.

[Virginiá]

Hopefully we can pick up legislative seats in the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs next year.

But I am tired of these near victories. 52 R to 48 D.

We'll probably get a big victory later this year, with Washington's special election which will determine control of the state Senate and thus whether or not Democrats have a trifecta. That means more than any of these legislative special elections. Plus, we've won a number of legislative specials recently. It's just the Congressional ones that were painfully close but ultimately lost. I'm pretty sure we'd be drinking champagne instead of sulking if Trump had tapped Congressmen like Mike Coffman or Barbara Comstock, who represent considerably more competitive districts than the deeply conservative ones in play so far this year.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

All results in for state senate 28:

State Senator - District 28           119 of 119 Precincts Reported
Sandy Crawford   Republican   9,768   68.279%
Albert J. Skalicky   Democratic   4,538   31.721%
    Total Votes:   14,306   
            

[jamestroll]

Hopefully we can pick up legislative seats in the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs next year.

But I am tired of these near victories. 52 R to 48 D.

It's past time to whittle the GOP supermajorities down in the Missouri Senate and the House.

Yes.

In 2020 hopefully MO Democrats can get that open 17th State Senate District (KC/Clay County) and finally take back the Columbia based Senate District. Though the latter will not be open.

[Ebsy]

Democrats only need 54 seats in the House to break the supermajority, and they held 46 after 2016. Definitely doable, but it is hard without winning a few rural seats in the Lead Belt, Jefferson County, the bootheel, and northeastern Missouri.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully we can pick up legislative seats in the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs next year.

But I am tired of these near victories. 52 R to 48 D.

We'll probably get a big victory next month (?), with Washington's special election which will determine control of the state Senate and thus whether or not Democrats have a trifecta. That means more than any of these legislative special elections. Plus, we've won a number of legislative specials recently. It's just the Congressional ones that were painfully close but ultimately lost. I'm pretty sure we'd be drinking champagne instead of sulking if Trump had tapped Congressmen like Mike Coffman or Barbara Comstock, who represent considerably more competitive districts than the deeply conservative ones in play so far this year.

[jamestroll]

Democrats only need 54 seats in the House to break the supermajority, and they held 46 after 2016. Definitely doable, but it is hard without winning a few rural seats in the Lead Belt, Jefferson County, the bootheel, and northeastern Missouri.

One of the biggest questions in my head is how open the rednecks in Jefferson County and the lead belt would be to voting Democrat without Obama in office.

In Kander's upset win in 2012 for Secretary of State he did win many of those areas. So too early too tell if 2016 was a one time fluke up and down the ballot or not.

To be fair those the slate of candidates Missouri Democrats ran in 2016 were quite pathetic and the Republican candidates made no major mistakes.

[jamestroll]

Hopefully we can pick up legislative seats in the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs next year.

But I am tired of these near victories. 52 R to 48 D.

We'll probably get a big victory next month (?), with Washington's special election which will determine control of the state Senate and thus whether or not Democrats have a trifecta. That means more than any of these legislative special elections. Plus, we've won a number of legislative specials recently. It's just the Congressional ones that were painfully close but ultimately lost. I'm pretty sure we'd be drinking champagne instead of sulking if Trump had tapped Congressmen like Mike Coffman or Barbara Comstock, who represent considerably more competitive districts than the deeply conservative ones in play so far this year.

You make a good point there Virginia. Generally presidents will not risk losing power in congress. Though Obama made a few errors like that especially with governorships.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Hopefully we can pick up legislative seats in the Kansas City and St Louis suburbs next year.

But I am tired of these near victories. 52 R to 48 D.

We'll probably get a big victory next month (?), with Washington's special election which will determine control of the state Senate and thus whether or not Democrats have a trifecta. That means more than any of these legislative special elections. Plus, we've won a number of legislative specials recently. It's just the Congressional ones that were painfully close but ultimately lost. I'm pretty sure we'd be drinking champagne instead of sulking if Trump had tapped Congressmen like Mike Coffman or Barbara Comstock, who represent considerably more competitive districts than the deeply conservative ones in play so far this year.

The general for Washington  is in November not next month.