Tasmanian state election - 3rd March 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Franklin is a three way race for the fifth seat between Liberal, Labor and the Greens.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Now looking more like the Liberals will lose their 3rd in Franklin

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The green vote is waaaaaay down.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Currently, if we award seat to parties by whole quotas only, (ie 1.00-1.99=1 seat, 2.00-2.99=2 seats) then the figures are:
LIB - 13
LAB - 7
GRN - 1

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Looks pretty certain that the Liberals will maintain their majority.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberals position in Franklin detiriorates by the minute, looking increasingly certain the final split in Franklin will be LIB 2 LAB 2 GRN 1

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Greens do have the slightest chance to come through the middle in Bass, however it would require near-miracle preference results.

[BidenDuckworth2020]

Have to just hope for a complete collapse in the Libs Lyons vote to get them below 13. Don't really see it happening though.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think the Greens stuffed up their chances in Lyons with the choice of Fraser Brindley, a mainlander who served on Melbourne city council before moving to Tasmania a year or two ago. Salmon farming had the potential to be a big issue in Lyons which could of been very beneficial for the Greens, but instead of choosing a good East Coast councillor they chose an outsider from the mainland, which has really hurt them.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Anthony's called Cassy O'Connor, the Greens leader, elected in Denison.

[Lachi]

I would like to see a few more booths come in, but unless the greens pull off a miracle, Hodgman is back.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Have to just hope for a complete collapse in the Libs Lyons vote to get them below 13. Don't really see it happening though.

There's a far greater chance of us getting 14 seats (holding the third in Franklin) than us losing our third in Lyons.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There's always a seat or two we have to wait until Friday to see the winner, and the fourth and fifth in Franklin will certainly be two of them.

[Lachi]

Libs are at 3.17 quotas in Lyons. They aren't going to fall below 3 there, that's certain, unfortunately for me...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Libs are at 3.17 quotas in Lyons. They aren't going to fall below 3 there, that's certain, unfortunately for me...

And more importantly, we've balanced the ticket excellently, the top three Liberals are on 0.80, 0.78 and 0.75 quotas, which is Northern Ireland level ticket balancing.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Antony Green is all but calling a Liberal Majority

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There does remain the slightest chance the the Liberals will hold the fourth in Braddon, the Labor ticket is poorly balanced, though likewise is the fourth Liberal. Extremely unlikely but the slightest chance remains.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jacqui is conceding in her typical full on aggressive manner.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Lambie: "We are squeaky bloody clean"

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Three seats called in Lyons, four called everywhere else.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Fourth seat in Lyons called for the Liberals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In Franklin the Liberals and Labor both have two and the fifth seat is going to go down to the wire between the Liberals and the Greens

[AustralianSwingVoter]

All the Liberals need is a second seat in Denison and they'll maintain they're majority.