IN-SEN: Who wins the Republican primary?

[Politician]

Holy sh**t, Braun is running up massive numbers in the Evansville suburbs.

[Politician]

Marion comes in, and it almost perfectly matches the statewide numbers. It and Hamilton might be our bellweathers tonight.

Looks like you're right. Braun is leading by 13% in both of them. However, Messer's leading Rokita in both of them.

[Oryxslayer]

Holy sh**t, Braun is running up massive numbers in the Evansville suburbs.

Go back a page, we were discussing how the SW has a bunch of ancestral dems who might have been attracted to the "Braun is a Dem" line.

[Skill and Chance]

Holy sh**t, Braun is running up massive numbers in the Evansville suburbs.

Yeah, if the Evansville vote is high enough and he stays strong in Rokita's district, he could get to 50% statewide once Messer's district is done reporting.

[Politician]

Prediction: Braun wins every CD except the 4th (goes to Rokita) and the 6th (Messer).

[Skill and Chance]

Prediction: Braun wins every CD except the 4th (goes to Rokita) and the 6th (Messer).

Messer has clearly got the 6th, but it's not at all clear that Rokita has the 4th.  Rokita might get the 3rd instead, which looks quite close right now, although Braun has clearly been doing better in the election day vote.

[ajc0918]

Who is the weakest GOP candidate? Sorry if this has been asked before

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Who is the weakest GOP candidate? Sorry if this has been asked before

Rokita probably. Messer second weakest.

Braun is the strongest and makes this race a tossup. I feel like this race could be Lean D with the other two.

[Politician]

Western Indiana results are coming in, further increasing Braun's lead. Bad news for Donnelly.

[Sestak]

Messer's almost caught up with Rokita.

Braun is running away with it so far.

[Oryxslayer]

Rokita is finally starting to collect some counties in his Western base of the state.

[Politician]

Braun is winning a landslide in Southwestern IN, heck he is winning everywhere except IN-06 so far.

[Skill and Chance]

Western Indiana results are coming in, further increasing Braun's lead. Bad news for Donnelly.

Ehhh, I think he would either lose to any GOPer or none of them.  There is also the possibility of more skeletons in Braun's closet given that he's relatively unvetted.

[Skill and Chance]

Braun is winning a landslide in Southwestern IN, heck he is winning everywhere except IN-06 so far.

Former Dem attack = own goal in historical Blue Dog areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Braun has Flipped Fort Wayne, Rokita has linked his counties in the north, and Braun is being called the winner by all sites who don't want to wait on more of lake.

[krazen1211]

Braun will be a Senator soon.

[TJ in Oregon]

I take it Braun is from Dubois County?

[Oryxslayer]

I take it Braun is from Dubois County?

How did you know?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's hard to say for sure but it's possible that Messer and Rokita split the mouth-foaming GOP primary vote, allowing Braun to win.

Finally I predict something right on this forum! I'm actually surprised at how accurate I am too right down to saying that Messer and Rokita would split their faction's vote. They almost got the exact same percentage!

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

DONE-lly a sure goner now with Braun having cast himself as the moderate. He was the Luther Strange in a sea of Moore's.

[MarkD]

From my perspective, Braun's victory carries a reminder of how Russ Feingold won the Democratic primary in 1992.
Early in 1992, Feingold started out a distant third place behind two major candidates: Rep. Jim Moody and businessman Joe Checota. Moody and Checota had ever reason to look on each other as their main opponent and they went after each other with tons of negative ads. Voters hated the negative attack ads. Feingold ran ads that were positive, emphasizing his down-to-earth qualities, and the only negative thing he said about the other two candidates was to point out how much mud they were slinging at each other. Moody and Checota's attack ads succeeded at making each other look terrible, and Feingold's strategy worked like a charm. He ended up winning that primary with 70% while Moody and Checota were virtually tied at 14% each.
It looks like something similar has happened this year with Braun.

[_]

Tilt R, great job Braun!!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is a Tossup, but Donnelly is likely the most vulnerable Democrat in the country right now.

Yeah. I would say Manchin is the most vulnerable Democrat, but of course WV primary voters decided the corrupt slob would be a better choice instead of Evan Jenkins.

I think Braun is favored, but Donnelly is likely underrated by pundits. He's a pretty uncontroversial guy and will get a ton of moderates to vote for him.

[Hoosier_Nick]

It's hard to say for sure but it's possible that Messer and Rokita split the mouth-foaming GOP primary vote, allowing Braun to win.

Finally I predict something right on this forum! I'm actually surprised at how accurate I am too right down to saying that Messer and Rokita would split their faction's vote. They almost got the exact same percentage!

This is a bad take. All three's ads were really Trump-y, but honestly with Messer's less so. Braun's were all about career politicians, draining the swamp, the wall, trade deals, etc.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's hard to say for sure but it's possible that Messer and Rokita split the mouth-foaming GOP primary vote, allowing Braun to win.

Finally I predict something right on this forum! I'm actually surprised at how accurate I am too right down to saying that Messer and Rokita would split their faction's vote. They almost got the exact same percentage!

This is a bad take. All three's ads were really Drumpf-y, but honestly with Messer's less so. Braun's were all about career politicians, draining the swamp, the wall, trade deals, etc.

I'll be honest, I had a hard time telling Rokita and Messer apart throughout the whole campaign.  That's why I kind of lumped them together. Braun to me came off as the less desperate candidate since he was an outsider and seemed to have appeal beyond desperately trying to appeal to Trump's base like "Trump-Pence endorsed" Rokita did.