2nd Place

[MAS117]

In Iowa, John Kerry poses a new threat to Rep. Gephardt for second place. Kerry has been surging and providing more money and staff to Iowa. It all comes down to Gephardts labor endorsements. Dean will come in 1st in Iowa, but if John Kerry overtakes Dick for 2nd it gives him a boost in NH. Gen. Clark has been surging in NH possibly taking over the 2nd place spot from Kerry. The Dean seems to be worrying about Clark in NH, but if Kerry wins 2nd in Iowa that puts Clarks effort in NH potentily down the drain. These surges by Clark in NH, and Kerry in Iowa have happened only recently. In NH the new poll shows Clark only 3 points ahead of Kerry. Tell me what you think.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Kerry is surging!  Please...that's a joke, right?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Kerry is surging!  Please...that's a joke, right?

I swear that Kerry's appearance is that of a person who has been dead for three days!

Even Jay Leno compared him to Lerch on the Munsters.

[Beet]

Oh hes surging just enough to help Dean.

1) Kerry blunts Gephardt in Iowa
2) Clark blunts Kerry in New Hampshire
3) Dean wins the nomination
4) Bush wins a 45-state landslide, 700 Club ratings surge
5) US becomes ultraconservative state

[MAS117]

If you take a look at Dean's numbers, they arent going up, there are staying the same. I wouldnt really call it a surge (I'll retract my last comment - Hey i look like dean). but kerry is moving up in iowa and could take 2nd and clark in nh is moving up.

[Beet]

Well if Gephardt loses in Iowa and he drops out before SC, there is a slim chance that the Clinton wing of the party could panic and just pressure everyone to drop out except for Clark, to allow him to pull off a win against Dean.

[jravnsbo]

Yes i hear the same thing.  Kerry is hoping to beat expectations and come in 2d to get a lift for 2d in NH, thereby cating himt he anti-dean.  But then with nothing promising in the feb 3rd races it will still be uphill for him.

I hear Clark is going to spend 5 million in NH to blanket the airwaves and try to make himself the anti-dean.

In Iowa, John Kerry poses a new threat to Rep. Gephardt for second place. Kerry has been surging and providing more money and staff to Iowa. It all comes down to Gephardts labor endorsements. Dean will come in 1st in Iowa, but if John Kerry overtakes Dick for 2nd it gives him a boost in NH. Gen. Clark has been surging in NH possibly taking over the 2nd place spot from Kerry. The Dean seems to be worrying about Clark in NH, but if Kerry wins 2nd in Iowa that puts Clarks effort in NH potentily down the drain. These surges by Clark in NH, and Kerry in Iowa have happened only recently. In NH the new poll shows Clark only 3 points ahead of Kerry. Tell me what you think.

[jravnsbo]

No way would edwards or sharpton drop out of SC, that is their whole campaign.

and if Edwards wins it maybe he becomes the anti-dean ( unlikely- but possible)

Well if Gephardt loses in Iowa and he drops out before SC, there is a slim chance that the Clinton wing of the party could panic and just pressure everyone to drop out except for Clark, to allow him to pull off a win against Dean.

[Clay]

I think now that Clark is finally starting to show some steam in the polls, he's going to look back on this race (after he loses) and regret dropping out in Iowa.

See, the problem is, anyone who wins in Iowa gets a boost in N.H.  So if Dean wins Iowa, it helps him in N.H., not that he really needs it.  Next, the 2nd place winner in Iowa gets a boost in N.H.  So say Kerry gets 2nd, that then knocks Clark out in N.H. for a second place win.

If Gephardt wins Iowa, it'll help him in N.H., but not enough to get second place.

So...here's the scenario: Dean wins Iowa, Kerry or Gephardt comes in 2nd.  Dean gets another boost in N.H. and all national polls.  Dean then goes on to win N.H. which then gives him an even bigger boost in the polls and in all the February 3rd primaries, the most important of which is South Carolina, where Dean and Clark are pretty well tied - right now, before any primaries have taken place.  But once Dean wins Iowa and N.H., the free publicity boosts him to a lead in S.C., Arizona, Oklahoma, etc. - knocking Clark out of the race.

Clark's biggest mistake (aside from the massive flip flops on *every* issue he's tried to get across) was dropping out of Iowa.  If he hadn't done that, then he might be a real threat to Dean.

[Clay]

Has anyone else heard that John Zogby says he just can't see a scenario where Clark gets the nom?

He says he can see Dean (obviously), maybe Gephardt (doubtful, but possible), and even Edwards (gasp!), but not Clark.

That's pretty big, coming from Zogby.

[jravnsbo]

no hadn't heard that from Zogby, got a link?

I think Dean will get some much PR from winning IA and NH he will win.  2 weeks of free media essentially to play in other feb 3 states.  Clark may or may not materialize, lot depends on IA and how Kerry does there.

[Clay]

no hadn't heard that from Zogby, got a link?

I think Dean will get some much PR from winning IA and NH he will win.  2 weeks of free media essentially to play in other feb 3 states.  Clark may or may not materialize, lot depends on IA and how Kerry does there.

Sure, here you go:

http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=6652

It's the first question.  I enjoyed the whole thing, just in case anyone cares that much to read it.

I think this small bump in the polls for Clark is just too late.