CA-50 Special Election Busby vs. Bilbray

[TheresNoMoney]

The NRCC spent 1/5th of their cash on this race.

[Galactic Overlord]

11% reporting:

Bilbray- 50.60%

Busby- 42.88%

[The Duke]

11% reporting:

Bilbray- 50.60%

Busby- 42.88%

Where can I get results?

[Galactic Overlord]

Try here:

http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress.xml

[Beet]

At the top of the page it says "absentees only" but in the table it says 57 precincts out of 500. Thats because their program automatically tabulates the precinct numbers by the percentage counted? Because shouldnt absentees come from all precincts? Or are they only allowed in 57 precincts where everyone is forced to vote by absentee (not likely)?

[Alcon]

At the top of the page it says "absentees only" but in the table it says 57 precincts out of 500. Thats because their program automatically tabulates the precinct numbers by the percentage counted? Because shouldnt absentees come from all precincts? Or are they only allowed in 57 precincts where everyone is forced to vote by absentee (not likely)?

They may be absentee-only precincts, or there may be separate precincts for absentee and poll votes.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Did the San Diego pollworkers go to sleep?

[Beet]

At the top of the page it says "absentees only" but in the table it says 57 precincts out of 500. Thats because their program automatically tabulates the precinct numbers by the percentage counted? Because shouldnt absentees come from all precincts? Or are they only allowed in 57 precincts where everyone is forced to vote by absentee (not likely)?

They may be absentee-only precincts, or there may be seperate precincts for absentee and poll votes.

K thanks

[Beet]

Did the San Diego pollworkers go to sleep?

The election is over jFRAUD, Bilbray wins 50.6%-42.88%

[Alcon]

Did the San Diego pollworkers go to sleep?

The election is over jFRAUD, Bilbray wins 50.6%-42.88%

Let's not go that far with 11 percent of precincts reporting...

[Beet]

Did the San Diego pollworkers go to sleep?

The election is over jFRAUD, Bilbray wins 50.6%-42.88%

Let's not go that far with 11 percent of precincts reporting...

Im kidding

[Alcon]

Did the San Diego pollworkers go to sleep?

The election is over jFRAUD, Bilbray wins 50.6%-42.88%

Let's not go that far with 11 percent of precincts reporting...

Im kidding

Haha, OK.  Don't mean to be rude at all, but your posting style has been kind of different tonight.  Anything interesting in your cup?

[Eraserhead]

When the hell are the results going to be updated?

[Beet]

Did the San Diego pollworkers go to sleep?

The election is over jFRAUD, Bilbray wins 50.6%-42.88%

Let's not go that far with 11 percent of precincts reporting...

Im kidding

Haha, OK.  Don't mean to be rude at all, but your posting style has been kind of different tonight.  Anything interesting in your cup?

Oh hows it different? I guess im being a little more emo than usual...

[Sam Spade]

In CA, the absentees are usually counted before polls close or first, whichever.

They are usually dumped one county at a time.  Since CA-50 is entirely within San Diego County, they are all dumped at once (the results above).  It looks strange how they've numbered it, but that's how it is.

As I said earlier, I'm about 90% sure Bilbray will win, as these results seem to indicate a Bilbray win of about 4%, based on voting patterns in the last primary.  In order to make sure that something doesn't change or these results are not accurate, I reserve certainty on any prediction at this time.

Interestingly enough, this absentee number is the exact same absentee number Busby got in the first primary.

[Nym90]

Interestingly enough, this absentee number is the exact same absentee number Busby got in the first primary.

Exact same? Odd. Any chance of it being an error then?

[Sam Spade]

Interestingly enough, this absentee number is the exact same absentee number Busby got in the first primary.

Exact same? Odd. Any chance of it being an error then?

Nope.   It's the percentage number, not the actual vote total.

[Sam Spade]

Results in California are coming slower than molasses.

100 out of 500 precincts (20%)

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
24786
50.52%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
21269
43.35%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
2108
4.30%

PAUL KING - LIB
895
1.82%

[Sam Spade]

Slight bump for Busby...

124 out of 500 (24.8%)

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
26637
50.02%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
23461
44.05%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
2215
4.16%

PAUL KING - LIB
945
1.77%

[CARLHAYDEN]

I must agree that the election authorities in San Diego are being very slow.

The polls have been closed for two hours!

They should have at least half of the vote counted by now!

[Sam Spade]

151 of 500 precincts (30.2%)

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
28568
49.67%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
25605
44.52%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
2340
4.07%

PAUL KING - LIB
998
1.74%

Problem is, these are probably Busby's best precincts we're getting right now.  The closer in we go, the more GOP it will become, I would predict, just based on the knowledge of the area.  I have been wrong before, though. 

[Sam Spade]

178 out of 500 precincts (35.6%).  Slight tick up for Bilbray.

At some point, I'm going to stop reporting and call it a race, but not just yet.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
30683
49.80%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
27383
44.44%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
2489
4.04%

PAUL KING - LIB
1063
1.73%

[Alcon]

The problem with this race is that this district has such a weirdly scattered precinct selection.  If votes are coming in regionally, we could suddenly see a massive uptick for Billbray if Encinitas reports, or one for Busby if parts of incorporated San Diego report.

[Sam Spade]

The problem with this race is that this district has such a weirdly scattered precinct selection.  If votes are coming in regionally, we could suddenly see a massive uptick for Billbray if Encinitas reports, or one for Busby if parts of incorporated San Diego report.

Actually, it's the opposite of what you're thinking here.  The closer towards the coast you are and the more money you have, the more likely you are to vote for Busby and vice versa.

In the scheme of things, Carlsbad should be slightly favorable towards Bilbray, though.

Encinitas and Solana Beach are going to be the Busby strongholds.

The further you go away from the coast, in general, the more favorable it will be for Bilbray.  La Jolla is the Bilbray home base.

The little secret that I know is that the polling center where they're counting votes here is in the Encinitas/Solana Beach area.  Therefore, that area should report first and the further from the area should report later.  Absentees don't count in this observation.

[Alcon]

Sorry, I meant Escondido, not Encinitas.