CA-50 Special Election Busby vs. Bilbray

[Sam Spade]

Another vote dump (nearly even split this time)

214 out of 500 precincts reporting (42.4% reporting)

I am pretty close to calling this one.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
33468
49.59%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
30190
44.74%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
2688
3.98%

PAUL KING - LIB
1139
1.69%

[MAS117]

Although I'm sure Bilbray will win I wouldn't call this one just yet.

[Sam Spade]

Another vote dump (another slight Bilbray tick)

232 out of 500 precincts reporting (46.4% reporting)

Once we get up to 60%, I'm quitting for the night.  I'm also calling the race.  Bilbray will most likely win by somewhere in the range of 2%-4%, depending on exactly which precincts have yet to be counted.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
35505
49.67%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
31955
44.70%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
2827
3.95%

PAUL KING - LIB
1193
1.67%

[MAS117]

What website has the election results for this race?

[Sam Spade]

Another vote dump and probably the last for me tonight.

255 out of 500 precincts reporting (51.0% reporting)

Bilbray wins by 2%-4%, more towards the 4% now I'm thinking. 

Color me underimpressed.  As I said in the first special election, Busby's GOTV did not wow me.  It still doesn't.  She really didn't pull any more (1%-2%) than Kerry did in 2004 in a open Congressional election, since I think it's fair to say that most, if not almost all of Griffith's votes (endorsed by the Minutemen) came from potential Bilbray voters.

I'll be starting off with this one in Likely R for the general election in November in my next list.

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
37593
49.66%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
33945
44.84%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
2931
3.87%

PAUL KING - LIB
1237
1.63%

[Sam Spade]

What website has the election results for this race?

http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress.xml

[MAS117]

I'm calling it a night. I am dissapointed that Busby did not win, but I'm not suprised. This can be viewed as victory for the DCCC anyway. The NRCC spent millions on defending a seat which should have been won outright!

[The Duke]

I'm calling it a night. I am dissapointed that Busby did not win, but I'm not suprised. This can be viewed as victory for the DCCC anyway. The NRCC spent millions on defending a seat which should have been won outright!

Given the fact that Miramar is in the 50th, "There are no points for second place."

[Sam Spade]

The last vote dump has pushed the margin up to Bilbray +5.11% at 56% of the precincts in.  The Bush margins around the edges seem to be holding up better than I thought they would.

I am thinking the final margin may be more in the 5%-6% range than than the 2%-4% range, now.

That is probably all for tonight for me, ciao..

[Sam Spade]

I'm calling it a night. I am dissapointed that Busby did not win, but I'm not suprised. This can be viewed as victory for the DCCC anyway. The NRCC spent millions on defending a seat which should have been won outright!

There are no Pyrrhic victories in politics, MAS, sorry.

Besides, this was 1 of only 9 open seats the GOP has to defend this year where Bush got less than 59% of the vote in 2004.  Spending money here was the correct move on the NRCC's part.  Incumbents can handle themselves, but open seats often can't.

[minionofmidas]

255 out of 500 precincts reporting (51.0% reporting)

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
37593
49.66%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
33945
44.84%

49.6-45.1 now, with 78% in.

[Storebought]

It's over:

ABC News

With 90% of precincts reporting,

Brian Bilbray       
56,016   49%   
Paul King             
1,753       2%   
Francine Busby    
51,202        45%   
William Griffith     
4,212      4%   

NBC San Diego

Man, what this a slow night.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Its really hard to predict these special elections in California as a high percentage of the vote typically comes from 'early'  voting.

My best guess when the dust settles is:

Bilbray               Republican          49%
Busby                Democrat            45
Griffith               Independent         4
King                   Libertarian            2

Bilbray is a lackluster candidate who barely won the Republican primary.

Not too bad a prediction.

[CARLHAYDEN]

The race in the 50th CD has been closely watched as a harbinger for the fall elections.

Several tentative conclusions:

1. The 'culture of corruption' argument doesn't work.

2. Opposing amnesty for illegal aliens does work.

3. John McCain is digging himself into a hole,

4. The Democrats are not likely baring unexpected changes between now and november, to achieve control of the house.

5. Nancy Pelosi, go looking for another job.

6. S. 2611 will either have to be dramatically altered, or it is dead!

[jerusalemcar5]

The race in the 50th CD has been closely watched as a harbinger for the fall elections.

Several tentative conclusions:

1. The 'culture of corruption' argument doesn't work.

2. Opposing amnesty for illegal aliens does work.

3. John McCain is digging himself into a hole,

4. The Democrats are not likely baring unexpected changes between now and november, to achieve control of the house.

5. Nancy Pelosi, go looking for another job.

6. S. 2611 will either have to be dramatically altered, or it is dead!

This is a Republican district where a Democrat came within a few percentage points of the Republican.  This is still an excellent sign for the Democrats and liberal policies.

[Harry Hayfield]

With 498 of the 500 precints declared as of 5.42am PDT June 7th, the result (and change on 2004) is:

Paul King (Lib) 1,869 (1.5% +0.3%)
Brian Bilbray (GOP) 60,152 (49.3% -9.2%)
Francine Busby (Dem) 55,412 (45.5% +9.0%)
Wiliam Griffith (Ind) 4,482 (3.7% +3.7)

GOP HOLD with a majority of 4,740 (3.8%)
Swing from GOP to Dem: 9.1%

[Adlai Stevenson]

It is a good harbinger of things to come.  The Democrats have an excellent chance of taking the House of Representatives.  In 2004, Busby lost this race 58%-36%.  To go from a 22% loss to a 4% one sounds like a quite good reversal in fortunes to me.

[Gustaf]

Lol, 2004 was against an incumbent this was an open seat. If she ran similar to Kerry in an open seat election, that's a bad sign.

[Sam Spade]

A couple of simple observations:

1.  Comparing this to the 2004 results between Cunningham and Busby is useless and blatantly partisan as well.  The partisan baseline is 2004 Bush numbers in the CD, adjusted.  If you want to mellow out any potential foibles in using one number, add 2000 to it and do the same thing.  This is what you gauge House seats with, especially open ones.

The simple fact is that Bilbray held onto the Bush baseline numbers fairly well, much better than I thought he would.  Leakage occurred mainly to third-party candidates, especially Griffith, but leakage to third-parties hurts much less than leakage to your key opponent.  It appears that here, which may not apply to other places, dissatisfied Republicans chose to protest by going the third-party route.

2.  It is interesting to note that Busby and Young, the two Democrats in the race, got 45.06% of the vote in April 2006.  She got 45.46% percent, an increase of 0.4%.  The Republicans spent a lot of money here, but so did Busby, who got nearly $4 million in campaign funds from outside sources.  A rather pathetic uptick for that type of money, imo.

3.  It is hard to predict whether the race would have been closer pre-Busby's now well-known dumb remarks.  It is therefore a little harder to place this race in a national contest as I might have been able to do earlier.  Still, if this is a harbinger of things to come, there is simply not the momentum as of June 2006, for the Democrats to be considered the favorites to take back the House.

4.  Busby really was a third-tier candidate, frankly.  Conditions almost turned right for her, but I think she probably lost her one chance at it.

[Beet]

If every CD in the country voted precisely the way they voted for President in 2004, the Democrats would lose seats in Congress... they would lose a lot of seats... I think about 23 to be precise (insert partisan jab at gerrymandering here).

[12th Doctor]

I've said it before, and I will say it again... one election, esspecially a special election, is not a good indicator of which way the country is headed.

[Alcon]

This is a sign that Duke Cunningham annoyed a small number of Republicans into voting for the Democrats.  It is a sign that this congressional district s drifting to the left, but still not enough to choose Frances Busby over Brian Bilbray.  That is pretty much it.

[Sam Spade]

If every CD in the country voted precisely the way they voted for President in 2004, the Democrats would lose seats in Congress... they would lose a lot of seats... I think about 23 to be precise (insert partisan jab at gerrymandering here).

That's the reason why you calculate it against the deviation away from the mean, which will remove a few of those CDs and add others to the Dem list.

At present using this model, for example, there are 22 CDs with a Bush percentage of less than 50% against the mean.  I don't know the number of Democratic ones, because I haven't calculated it out.

Still, Bush 43, as a very polarizing figure, makes him almost the perfect gauge, or probably the most perfect we're going to get in a while.  Back in 1990s and 1980s, Presidents like Clinton and Bush 41 are a little bit harder to pigeonhole, as they won many Democratic or Republican CDs on the way to larger popular vote victories.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Moral of the story, $11 million is effective at buying a Congressional race.

[Flying Dog]

Am I sad Busby Lost, Yes.  Do I think we should abondon the culture of corruption message, NO.  One special election in a rebublican leaning district doesnt mean the message doesnt resonate with americans. I also think Busby wasnt the best candidate we could have had and her GOTV effort sucked. Also her illegal voting remark (which I still am sceptical about) didnt help.  Bilbray also used the immigration isssue to get conservatives to vote for him.  Busby's campaign relied on young people to get out and vote. They seldom do. Bilbray took the reliable 50 and over voters.  So I am actually surprised how good busby did with all that stacked against her. Had Busby ran an efficient campaign without any gaffes and did not let bilbray compare her to pro-amnesty people and had a great GOTV effort I think she would have won.
Well, no use crying over spilled milk. Lets put this behind use us and focus on the next election: November 2006