43rd British Columbia general election

[Hatman 🍁]

The map came out in April. I remember people freaking out (and rightly so) about that Ladysmith-Oceanside seat. That should be unconstitutional.

[lilTommy]

The map came out in April. I remember people freaking out (and rightly so) about that Ladysmith-Oceanside seat. That should be unconstitutional.

The preliminary proposal for Nanaimo-Ladysmith wasn't that much better either, both draws still created this odd encompassing "hugging" riding.

[adma]

Of course, I'm presently guarded about the BCU assessments of some of the Interior seats.  (Langara's another matter)

[Harlow]

Another poll showing the Cons comfortably in second place:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709969175685255604?s=20

We also got a question about how well-known it is that the BC Liberals changed their name:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709976014191792340?s=20

The cross-tabs show that among the four parties, Con voters are the least aware of the name change, although still with a majority for awareness (58-40).

[lilTommy]

Of course, I'm presently guarded about the BCU assessments of some of the Interior seats.  (Langara's another matter)

Agreed, it's better to say it like BCU/CON or Centre-right vote would be favoured in seats. But with this split on the right... phew the NDP can almost be favoured everywhere.

[Bacon King]

We also got a question about how well-known it is that the BC Liberals changed their name:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709976014191792340?s=20

I'm fairly certain that awareness of the name change is even lower than what these numbers suggests, I think the phrasing of this question significantly inflates the number of people answering "aware".

Asking people, "are you aware the BC Liberals changed their name to the BC United Party?" is basically just asking them "this thing that happened - does it ring any bells for you?" because it directly prompts them with the information and primes them to dig up any memories about it.

like i bet a lot of people answer that they're familiar with it after having a thought process that's something like, "oh yeah, now that you mention it, I do remember hearing about it when it happened"

so they answer in this poll they're aware the BC Liberals are now BC United, even if they didn't remember that fact at the start of the poll when they were asked about their voting intentions

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I do think people are generally surprised that awareness was that high to begin with.

[patzer]

It occurs to me that given that the right-wing vote will likely be quite divided, there's a chance that in number of seats the Greens become the largest opposition party, which would be very odd to see.

Greens could feasibly end up on 4 seats or so, whereas each of BCU and the Conservatives could fail to get a significant number- it looks like the only two seats which don't even have a chance of going NDP are Peace River North/Peace River South but everything else is potentially up for grabs?

[JohnAMacdonald]

It occurs to me that given that the right-wing vote will likely be quite divided, there's a chance that in number of seats the Greens become the largest opposition party, which would be very odd to see.

Greens could feasibly end up on 4 seats or so, whereas each of BCU and the Conservatives could fail to get a significant number- it looks like the only two seats which don't even have a chance of going NDP are Peace River North/Peace River South but everything else is potentially up for grabs?

I believe you are over-estimating the collapse of said vote, with 20% BCU is still comfortably ahead of the greens, especially with things like a well established party machine, tactical voting between both conservative parties and incumbency advantage, they are both likely to win in 5-6 ridings with such polling.

[Harlow]

We also got a question about how well-known it is that the BC Liberals changed their name:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709976014191792340?s=20

I'm fairly certain that awareness of the name change is even lower than what these numbers suggests, I think the phrasing of this question significantly inflates the number of people answering "aware".

Asking people, "are you aware the BC Liberals changed their name to the BC United Party?" is basically just asking them "this thing that happened - does it ring any bells for you?" because it directly prompts them with the information and primes them to dig up any memories about it.

like i bet a lot of people answer that they're familiar with it after having a thought process that's something like, "oh yeah, now that you mention it, I do remember hearing about it when it happened"

so they answer in this poll they're aware the BC Liberals are now BC United, even if they didn't remember that fact at the start of the poll when they were asked about their voting intentions

They should have a poll that doesn’t prompt people on what the parties are, just ask them to name the party they would vote for, and see how many of them say BC Liberals.

Says a lot about me maybe that if I had unlimited money and resources that’s the sort of thing I’d spend it on.

[adma]

They should have a poll that doesn’t prompt people on what the parties are, just ask them to name the party they would vote for, and see how many of them say BC Liberals.

Says a lot about me maybe that if I had unlimited money and resources that’s the sort of thing I’d spend it on.

Or even more so, the *person* they'd vote for--I'm sure that incumbent advantage counts in a whole lot of cases, whatever the party confusion...

[lilTommy]

It occurs to me that given that the right-wing vote will likely be quite divided, there's a chance that in number of seats the Greens become the largest opposition party, which would be very odd to see.

Greens could feasibly end up on 4 seats or so, whereas each of BCU and the Conservatives could fail to get a significant number- it looks like the only two seats which don't even have a chance of going NDP are Peace River North/Peace River South but everything else is potentially up for grabs?

I believe you are over-estimating the collapse of said vote, with 20% BCU is still comfortably ahead of the greens, especially with things like a well established party machine, tactical voting between both conservative parties and incumbency advantage, they are both likely to win in 5-6 ridings with such polling.

I have to agree, the Greens are polling lower then 2020, the poll here has them -5. Redistribution has hurt Green leader Furstenau by making her seat much more NDP friendly (Cowichan Valley) and she may have a chance in Juan de Fuca-Malahat but again it favours the NDP. The Greens may be relegated to only 1 seat again.
But I do agree there are about a dozen at least seats that will never go NDP I think; even with this 25-20 split among the rightwing parties, these seats will elect a rightwing party.

[Harlow]

BCU and BC Cons still virtually tied in new Angus Reid poll. This is one year out from the scheduled date of the next election.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1715037510936465564?s=20

[Benjamin Frank]

One interesting thing a year from the election is that as far as I can tell, the NDP hasn't nominated any candidates. To be sure, the NDP holds power unlike in other provinces, but there are still likely some MLAs who won't run again and there probably a half a dozen or so ridings the B.C Liberals (and Greens) won in the last election, that the NDP are likely targeting.

This should be especially the case given the challenges the NDP likely will face in all the ridings they won for the first time in the Fraser Valley in 2020 where in a good deal of that area there was a lengthy transit strike, and in Surrey where there is the neverending battle with Surrey city council over the RCMP vs. the municipal force and its resulting costs.

Of course, I can see the NDP delaying nominations to some extent given the confusion over B.C United vs. B.C Conservatives.

However, the Manitoba NDP likely benefited from nominating candidates early, some of them nearly two years before the election, and the Ontario NDP recently put out a report on the 2022 election that started off by saying something like 'start everything earlier.'

Although that was actually a bigger criticism in 2018 where I read from somebody that the NDP believes it could have won up to five more ridings in that election if they had nominated candidates earlier. I speculate the reason this didn't come out until the after the 2022 election is that the 'perfect should be the enemy of the good' Andrea Horwath wouldn't take the constructive criticism as she seemed to believe that every box had to be checked off in triplicate - vetting, diversity, membership... - before a candidate could be nominated.

One thing about many NDP candidates is that while many of them aren't high profile in their communities, they often work in social service type sectors, which often means they have to be 'people persons.' So, getting them nominated early allowing them to get known in their riding tends to mean they get liked in their ridings by most people.
 

[Benjamin Frank]

Also: I've looked over the riding redistribution and obviously things are further complicated with the B.C United/B.C Conservative split, but not taking into account either of those, these are the half a dozen ridings from 2020 the NDP should be targeting:

1.Vancouver-Langara
2.Fraser-Nicola
3.Columbia River-Revelstoke
4.Kamloops-North Thompson
5.Skeena
6.Cowichan Valley

Vancouver-Langara is a longtime non NDP riding that has been trending NDP. This same area is the one riding in Vancouver the Conservatives have held federally (at least once) since 1993. I mention that, mainly to mention that the reason I think for this is because Vancouver Langara/South Vancouver has a more suburban feel to it than other parts of Vancouver. The reason for this is because the area used to be a suburb. I read in a book on Richmond, that there was an interurban tram that used to travel between Richmond and the city of South Vancouver (just as there are cities of North Vancouver and West Vancouver, up until, I believe, 1935, there was a city named South Vancouver.)

This area, like much of Greater Vancouver, has been trending NDP provincially, and with Michael Lee dropping back in the Liberal leadership race, it might be more prime for the picking for the NDP.

In the Interior and North, Columbia River-Revelstoke, Skeena and to a lesser degree, Fraser-Nicola have all be historically provincial NDP ridings, that the NDP lost largely due to divisive nomination battles at least somewhat involving the NDP gender and diversity requirements. I can't remember if that was also a factor in the Cowichan Valley riding on Vancouver Island, but it was narrowly held in 2020 by provincial Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau.

Kamloops is, of course, a fairly large city (population approx 100,000) in the Interior that has been historically competitive. This riding had always voted with the government since at least the 1972 NDP up until the 2017 election. Of course, that was only three elections (1972, 1991 and 1996) where it voted for the NDP, but it had usually been competitive. The other Kamloops ridings in 1996 voted B.C Liberal.

[lilTommy]

Also: I've looked over the riding redistribution and obviously things are further complicated with the B.C United/B.C Conservative split, but not taking into account either of those, these are the half a dozen ridings from 2020 the NDP should be targeting:

1.Vancouver-Langara
2.Fraser-Nicola
3.Columbia River-Revelstoke
4.Kamloops-North Thompson
5.Skeena
6.Cowichan Valley

Vancouver-Langara is a longtime non NDP riding that has been trending NDP. This same area is the one riding in Vancouver the Conservatives have held federally (at least once) since 1993. I mention that, mainly to mention that the reason I think for this is because Vancouver Langara/South Vancouver has a more suburban feel to it than other parts of Vancouver. The reason for this is because the area used to be a suburb. I read in a book on Richmond, that there was an interurban tram that used to travel between Richmond and the city of South Vancouver (just as there are cities of North Vancouver and West Vancouver, up until, I believe, 1935, there was a city named South Vancouver.)

This area, like much of Greater Vancouver, has been trending NDP provincially, and with Michael Lee dropping back in the Liberal leadership race, it might be more prime for the picking for the NDP.

In the Interior and North, Columbia River-Revelstoke, Skeena and to a lesser degree, Fraser-Nicola have all be historically provincial NDP ridings, that the NDP lost largely due to divisive nomination battles at least somewhat involving the NDP gender and diversity requirements. I can't remember if that was also a factor in the Cowichan Valley riding on Vancouver Island, but it was narrowly held in 2020 by provincial Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau.

Kamloops is, of course, a fairly large city (population approx 100,000) in the Interior that has been historically competitive. This riding had always voted with the government since at least the 1972 NDP up until the 2017 election. Of course, that was only three elections (1972, 1991 and 1996) where it voted for the NDP, but it had usually been competitive. The other Kamloops ridings in 1996 voted B.C Liberal.

Agreed with this, in fact if you look back at my post on the redistribution on the last page the NDP would have won Fraser-Nicola and Cowichan Valley in 2020 under the 2024 boundaries.
In Van-Langara the NDP, even under the new boundaries which increased the BCL margin slightly, only need a swing of i think 2-3% to win the seat.

The issue is the Centre-Right is in deep trouble if they cannot really behind a single vehicle, the NDP can afford to lose 5% even 10% if the CR is split so evenly AND for that to be across BC.

Angus Reid Regionals:

Metro Van:
NDP - 49%
BCU - 17%
GRN - 17%
CON - 15%

Lower Main/Fraser:
NDP - 42%
BCU - 26%
CON - 24%
GRN - 7%

VanIsland:
NDP - 41%
BCU - 22%
GRN - 19%
CON - 17%

North/Interior:
NDP - 38%
CON - 31%
BCU - 24%
GRN - 7% 

Bad news for the BCU; they are not favoured overly so in any region while the CONs are polling fairly ahead of the BCU in the North/Interior. Could we see a 2005 level sweep for the NDP in 2024? probably not that drastic, but I could see the CR combined with 10 seats or so only, and maybe 1 Green.

[DL]

Its interesting that BC Greens are doing so badly. Supposedly there were all these environmentalists upset with the BC NDP for going ahead with Site C and with various LNG pipelines - and yet if anything the Greens are doing even worse than in 2020.

I suppose it is worth noting that before their boomlet in 2017 under Andrew Weaver when their popular vote went up to 16% - they typically would only get about 8% of the vote in BC elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Although that was actually a bigger criticism in 2018 where I read from somebody that the NDP believes it could have won up to five more ridings in that election if they had nominated candidates earlier.

I can believe this. There were winnable seats they didn't get candidates for until the beginning of the campaign! (Kevin Yarde comes to mind)

[Benjamin Frank]

I mentioned in my alt country song of the day thread that I went out last night and experienced sensory overload. I went to a politcal fundraiser at a bar where I was doing my own networking. Of course with me, I wasn't networking for anything really personal, but to try to help out in my own way.

Specifically, this was a provincial NDP event, and I went partly to mention how the NDP in other provinces - mainly Manitoba- have recognized that nominating candidates as much as 2 years before the election seemed to have really helped, in contrast, for instance, to Ontario in 2018 and 2022 where even candidates in winnable ridings were not nominated until after the election had been called (or just before.) Again, in fairness to the Ontario NDP, they actually did a somewhat better job nominating candidates earlier in 2022 than in 2018. All of which I've mentioned here previously.

I sat at a table with NDP cabinet minister Josie Osborne, but she said 'nominations for non incumbents won't begin until the new year but those decisions are up to the party executive.'  Of course, being in government makes this a slightly different situation but there are still a number of winnable ridings not presently held by the NDP.

I also went to donate books, and for anybody here interested, I was informed of a public facebook group called B.C NDP history. Indeed they want my books and other memorabilia which I placed into about 20 large bags with many other papers that I now have about one week to find.

[King of Kensington]

Regardless of the BC United vs BC Conservatives split - the elephant in the room is the fact that the NDP is at 48% which is extraordinarily high for a second term government. Its like the BC NDP is the new "natural party of government" in BC.

Under Horgan, the NDP was transformed into a big-tent party of the center-left.  The NDP broke the juggernaut of the "free enterprise" coalition.  Nobody thought Horgan was radical or a class warrior and AFAIK there isn't much business hostility to the BC NDP these days.

[Benjamin Frank]

Regardless of the BC United vs BC Conservatives split - the elephant in the room is the fact that the NDP is at 48% which is extraordinarily high for a second term government. Its like the BC NDP is the new "natural party of government" in BC.

Under Horgan, the NDP was transformed into a big-tent party of the center-left.  The NDP broke the juggernaut of the "free enterprise" coalition.  Nobody thought Horgan was radical or a class warrior and AFAIK there isn't much business hostility to the BC NDP these days.

I think a large part of this was the change in financing of political parties. Especially in the B.C NDP the party executive used to be very powerful. They were an enormous thorn in the side of Mike Harcourt on both policy (pushing to go further left) and in politics (trying to minimize Bingogate), it was really them and not organized labour that caused so many problems for Harcourt (maybe the public sector unions were a source of pressure though, but the media referred to B.C Fed of Labour leader Ken Georgetti as 'an unelected cabinet minister. The only thing as far as I know that was true with that was that cabinet minister Joy MacPhail had been his assistant at the B.C Fed prior to getting elected.)

However, with the changing to party financing and the decline in membership of the B.C NDP, the party executive doesn't seem to have the say it did during Harcourt's time.

Of course, there may have been other factors with that, Harcout was suspected by many New Democrats of really being a 'red Liberal' and this was compounded ironically by his winning the leadership by acclamation. Due to that, he didn't have to entrentch his connections with the coalitions in the party but also because he didn't do that, he was suspected of not being a 'real' New Democrat. So, much of the party executive was suspicious of him in ways they weren't of, say, Dave Barrett.

Also, it didn't help Harcourt that he believed in a 'chair of the board' style of leadership which meant he was often fairly hands off to begin with. Had he put his foot down more often he might have taken control of both the cabinet and the party executive. There was, I think, some concern of drift or aimlessness in the government in the cabinet, so a group of the top ministers (including Joy MacPhail) met for their own informal cabinet sessions, and for several months, they never even informed Harcourt they were holding these meetings.

Of course, that can be contrasted with the Dave Barrett government which was more or less a two person show of just him and Bob Williams, although cabinet minsters sometimes did have authority over things that solely involved their portfolios. So, I believe that it was Education Minister Eileen Dailly's decision to ban the strap in school. Incredible to think that the strap was still used in schools in British Columbia only 50 years ago. (And not long before that were still attempts to 'reeducate' left handed kids.)

The first book written on the Barrett government, 1200 Days, starts with a story on election day in 1975 with one of Dave Barrett's children saying to him "Dad, if they bring back the strap, I'm quitting school."

[Benjamin Frank]

Also, As Mike Harcourt sometimes used to say when he had another point to make "Oh", I had a junior high teacher who when disagreeing with somebody started with saying "oh, oh, oh."

I think one reason for the decline in hostility from the business community is simply that it's more diverse than it used to be (not that the NDP hasn't made moves to accomodate some of the business community, especially the high tech sector, just like say Democrats in Washington and California, uh oh.)

But, in the 1970s, the mining community was very important and it was very hostile to the B.C NDP. And, in the 1990s, the forest sector had something of an ongoing war with the NDP for a time. The B.C NDP arguably haven't changed their views on the forest sector, but circumstances have changed.

The NDP is trying to quietly pull off changes in the forest sector to make it more indigenous controlled and more 'community based' (whatever that means.) I personally suspect most of this will fail because there just isn't enough money in forestry to make this more small scale forestry profitable in competitive world markets (but, I could be wrong, of course.)

However,
1.The indigenous community through recognition of treaties starting in the 1990s (under Harcourt) and through UNDRIP has much more say now that the old guard in the forest sector can not challenge.

2.The population of British Columbia has increased by nearly 2 million since the Harcourt government was elected in 1991. One of the things about renewable resources is that they can't really be expanded too much because there are natural limits to growth. So, as British Columbia has grown in size and as British Columbians have also gotten wealthier per person, the size and influence of the forestry sector has really declined in relative terms. So, even if the forest sector were to try to be as hostile to the NDP as it was in the 1990s and as the mining industry was in the 1970s, it simply wouldn't have the same impact.

See economics concepts are both interesting and fun.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, BC had a very class-polarized politics right through the 1990s that was unusual in North America.  As you say, resource industries created very sharp class distinctions.

[Harlow]

So...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1731382666027483297?s=20

[mileslunn]

So...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1731382666027483297?s=20

If this happens on e-day great news for NDP since even if right unites, it will be BC Conservatives not BC United who have upper hand and BC Conservatives are too extreme to win in Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.  Off course some might be name recognition as many don't know who BC United is while confuse BC Conservatives with federal Conservatives.  Although I suspect with Poilievre in charge federally if he makes any endorsement or MPs get involved it will be for BC Conservatives.