Israel-Gaza war

[Vosem]

The first step is justice for those like Hallel Yaffa Ariel who were murdered in cold blood by state endorsed terror. Members of Fatah and Hamas need to face trials in the same way the Nazis did, with trials of all of the collaborators.

When it comes to rooting out evil, there's no compromise with those who believe the cold blooded murder of children is something to celebrate.

This is not an answer. What is your long term vision for peace?

One state solution is the only way. Israel is the only successor state to the British Mandatory Palestine in existence and the only state with any sort of claim to the region, and modern Palestinian nationalism is explicitly antisemitic including pushing for the ethnic cleansing of all Jewish settlements from a hypothetical Palestinian state.

So I'd say something along the lines of, Israel formally declares the West Bank and Gaza Strip as being part of Israel, recognizes Arabic as a national language and Arab Israelis as a national minority group. Make it so that Arab residents of the West Bank/Gaza can get Israeli citizenship if they want it (along with the responsibilities that comes with like IDF service). Anyone who engages in collaboration with terror groups like Hamas is deported with their property seized by the Israeli state and given to victims of Hamas attacks and their families as compensation; the higher up terror leaders should face life in prison (I'm pro-life and oppose the death penalty on principle no matter how evil someone's actions are). And gradually remove the checkpoints in the West Bank and so on as it becomes safe to do so.

Do you not see that Israel is the major obstacle to the peace you envision? The notion of Israel voluntarily giving up its status as a Jewish state someday, which this situation would, is completely unthinkable. Why do you spend so much time attacking reprehensible but relatively powerless Hamas supporters and so little time attacking the people who insist that Palestinians can never be given equal citizenship, who actually have the preponderance of political power in the region's only nuclear state?

Netanyahu recently suggested a two state solution might not be viable and got lambasted for doing so. Some Israeli MKs recently suggested the Jewish population which was ethnically cleansed from Gaza twenty years ago should be able to return to their homes; this again received heavy criticism.

Israel's status as a Jewish state wouldn't be under question following the incorporation of the West Bank and Gaza if done right. It's not about numbers. The Druze minority in Israel largely respects the state institutions; this is true regardless of the size of the Druze population of Israel.

The fundamental issue is that a large number of Arabs living in the area do not respect the existence of Israel or recognize the state institutions. For example the Arab population of Jerusalem is eligible for Israeli citizenship but most have declined because they want to instead be part of a hypothetical state of Palestine.  

Probably because they have as much right to self-autonomy as any other people. In order to get to the view that they do not have a right to self-autonomy, we have to start from the viewpoint that they are less than human.

But there is no "right to self-autonomy". What would you say to people in Ambazonia or Biafra or Khalistan, all of which had majorities for independence in the modern era? Or, for an example in a rich country, Catalonia? (And even if we ignore this, countries are well within their rights to occupy other countries which attack them -- consider the US occupation of Afghanistan, which lasted for 20 years, or the Allied occupation of Germany, which legally lasted for 45.)

Israel is a country of the Jewish people because that is how it was initially set up, and because its voters have chosen to perpetuate that status (for very good reasons that this thread has gone over many times), but it is a right of the Israeli state to be a representative of the Jewish people, not the inherent right of the Jewish people to have a state which represents them.

Perhaps the most important "hard decision" it needs to come to is that killing or expelling the entire Palestinian population is not an option, so some way needs to be found to live with them instead.

Until either the demographic situation radically changes or international public opinion radically changes (...as it has gradually been doing over the past few decades), I think the only reasonable solution here is "occupation until Palestinian political culture changes". The change in international public opinion -- which to be clear I think is most of the way complete -- is a prerequisite for the change in Palestinian public opinion.

My guess is that in 20-30 years international sympathy for the Palestinian cause will mostly have died out on the current trajectory, and also that in 20-30 years demographic questions whose answers are at present unclear -- whether the current rates of Palestinian emigration are sustainable and whether the current Israeli birthrates are sustainable -- will be answered. It remains my long-term guess that the West Bank will eventually treated as a massive East Jerusalem, where Israeli civil law applies and everyone has the option for Israeli citizenship, and Gaza becomes a Taiwan-style remnant, but that sort of depends on extrapolating trendlines outwards further than they might actually go, and becomes less realistic if the outcome of this war is the reestablishment of Israeli settlements in Gaza.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1755284262574584062

Really bad for Biden's odds

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

90% of this thread is just abstract policy arguments about the conflict.  Only 10% of it, at this point, is about the actual events unfolding in the Israel-Gaza war.  

Fine, I'll just stick to arguing about the facts on the ground then.

The Israelis are very clearly negotiating in order to have better relations with the Biden administration and EU. (I guess, yes, because some in the current Cabinet have rescuing the hostages as a priority over destroying Hamas, but it was never terribly realistic that both of those goals could coexist, and the latter is very obviously more important.)

Even the death count is pretty dubious because it looks suspiciously like the Obama era strategy of counting every dead "fighting age male" as an insurgent. If that's the standard then the count is 10,000 down, ~990,000 to go.

Well...not to be cynical but it is obviously in the interests of Israel's current leadership for the war to continue as long as possible, both because international support only seems to be increasing over time (defunding UNRWA was a fringe idea in October), but also because they would be unlikely to win an election and public pressure for one would rise significantly.

All of their international allies have abandoned them.

The US literally just launched a wave of attacks across the Middle East because the allies of Hamas that supposedly abandoned them have killed American troops, attacked American bases and shut down Red Sea transit to America and its allies. Gallant has been threatening to invade Lebanon for weeks because Hezbollah has depopulated northern Israel and forced hundreds of thousands of Israelis to become internal refugees. You have a funny definition of "abandoned"

I mean, yes, every indicator we have is that Hamas expected there to be direct intervention from Hezbollah and Iran into a war, and that they expected that Israeli tactics would result in increased global sympathy for the Palestinians; but the reverse seems to have happened. Hezbollah's non-intervention in spite of heavy Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanon (in spite of hundreds of militant deaths acknowledged by Hezbollah) kind of implies to me that they just literally don't have the strength for it, presumably because of their losses in 2006 and the scale of their intervention in Syria...

The strategy is to continue bombing until Hamas either doesn't exist or voluntarily surrenders and agrees to implement the orders of an Israeli occupation force. This seems to be going fine at the moment (kind of slow to be sure, but that slowness can be fully explained by a mixture of the secondary goal of recovering hostages, pressure from allies, the desire of the Israeli leadership for a campaign which is as slow as possible, and the likelihood that if the war is ongoing in 2025 the rules of engagement will change dramatically).

After pages of you making stuff up without any citation I need to ask: what are your sources?

Because I read the Israeli papers and I read Hamas's telegram reports and your conception of how the war is going is totally disconnected from what even the most optimistic Israelis are saying. In no particular order:

* Hezbollah isn't "not intervening", they've literally depopulated northern Israel with constant missile attacks. They obliterated the IAF's northern command at Meron and forced them to redeploy some of their best forces to the northern border. That's the IDF's official explanation: the alternative is that they were forced to withdraw most of their regulars and nearly all of their reservists from Gaza by intense pressure from Hamas. Gallant has been threatening to invade Lebanon for weeks. If anything they're probably doing more than Hamas expected considering they were only given 12 hours advance warning of the initial attack.

* Israel isn't negotiating to have better relations with Biden, they're negotiating because of internal pressure regarding the hostages. There aren't roads being blocked by angry protesters in Tel Aviv because they want Biden to like them but because they want the hostages released by any means necessary. Also, if you think this war is somehow making Israel more popular internationally then why would agreeing to a ceasefire improve their relations with anyone?

* Also, it isn't making them more popular internationally:

Net favorability—the percentage of people viewing Israel positively after subtracting the percentage viewing it negatively—dropped globally by an average of 18.5 percentage points between September and December, decreasing in 42 out of the 43 countries polled.

China, South Africa, Brazil, and several other countries in Latin America all went from viewing Israel positively to negatively. And many rich countries that already had net negative views of Israel—including Japan, South Korea, and the U.K.—saw steep declines. Net favorability in Japan went from -39.9 to -62.0; in South Korea from-5.5 to -47.8; and in the U.K. from -17.1 to -29.8.

* An extended war is in the interests of the current Israeli leadership but not Israel itself. Obviously Netanyahu will be out the second the war ends as will hardliners like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir but even Gantz has no motivation to rock the boat when he's almost guaranteed to be PM as long as he just waits patiently and doesn't do anything controversial. But the current status quo is a disaster for Israel; they can't afford to keep hundreds of thousands of internal refugees in hotels and hundreds of thousands of reservists raised indefinitely. There are only two ways this goes: an escalation in Lebanon or a ceasefire. Once again, this isn't just some crazy idea I'm just making up, this is what the Israelis themselves are saying.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Israel just expanded their war to Rafah

https://twitter.com/orbitnews365/status/1755324465020297562

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1755284262574584062

Really bad for Biden's odds

Imagine actually believing this will hurt Biden

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1755284262574584062
Really bad for Biden's odds

Imagine actually believing this will hurt Biden

The point is that there is no ceasefire like Biden is trying to push for. Usually each side underestimates the time it will take until victory, so the war will likely last quite long (with the Red Sea blocked and Iran fighting a proxy war against American in other countries as well).

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1755284262574584062
Really bad for Biden's odds

Imagine actually believing this will hurt Biden

The point is that there is no ceasefire like Biden is trying to push for. Usually each side underestimates the time it will take until victory, so the war will likely last quite long (with the Red Sea blocked and Iran fighting a proxy war against American in other countries as well).

If the Red Sea is blocked, then the best thing Biden could do for his re-election odds is to unblock it with force.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1755284262574584062
Really bad for Biden's odds

Imagine actually believing this will hurt Biden

The point is that there is no ceasefire like Biden is trying to push for. Usually each side underestimates the time it will take until victory, so the war will likely last quite long (with the Red Sea blocked and Iran fighting a proxy war against American in other countries as well).

If the Red Sea is blocked, then the best thing Biden could do for his re-election odds is to unblock it with force.

He has already tried and failed. The blocked Red Sea means more inflation, which also causes higher interest rates and lower stock prices eventually.

[Birdish]

Israel won't accept a Gaza with Hamas. Hamas won't accept a Gaza without them.

I'm guessing the question is, does one of them blink before the IDF get to Rafah?

[GoTfan]

An attack of Rafah starts a regional war and will essentially turn the whole Arab world against Israel instantly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If sanity does not reign in the state of Israel, we will eventually have to rein in the state of Israel.

[Birdish]

An attack of Rafah starts a regional war and will essentially turn the whole Arab world against Israel instantly.

At the very least, it seriously damages Israel's relationship with Egypt. It's also where the last bit of organized Hamas resistance is, probably with a good chunk of the remaining leadership. Both have incentive to blink before the fighting gets too bad. Not to mention saving the +1 million refugees.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Rafah is in Gaza, why should Egypt have any say in whether or not Israel is allowed to attack it?  Egypt has made overwhelmingly clear over the last few decades that they want to build as big a wall as possible between the modern Arab Republic of Egypt and their former client state / occupied territory.  They want nothing to do with the many Egyptian now-emigrants who lived in Gaza in 1948 or who migrated there during the subsequent decades where it was Egyptian territory.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

An attack of Rafah starts a regional war and will essentially turn the whole Arab world against Israel instantly.

1) No, it won’t

2) The entire Arab world is already against Israel

3) This is the same thing we were told after Al-Arouri was taken out

[Meclazine for Israel]

List of kidnapped dead Israeli's.

Kidnapped Dead Victims in Gaza Captivity

https://www.instagram.com/p/C3Bbtp4JDuq/

Most of these people were killed in Israel on October 7. Then the Palestinians 'kidnap' the dead body.

Then they, would you believe, keep the bodies.

This just gets worse and worse. Some Israeli's are still missing their heads, hence the Palestinians kidnapped their skulls only.

Kidnapped Heads

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2-FZQArSF7/

It's like an Evil Dead movie.

What a horrible outcome for their families.

[Pres Mike]

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1755284262574584062
Really bad for Biden's odds

Imagine actually believing this will hurt Biden

The point is that there is no ceasefire like Biden is trying to push for. Usually each side underestimates the time it will take until victory, so the war will likely last quite long (with the Red Sea blocked and Iran fighting a proxy war against American in other countries as well).

If the Red Sea is blocked, then the best thing Biden could do for his re-election odds is to unblock it with force.

He has already tried and failed. The blocked Red Sea means more inflation, which also causes higher interest rates and lower stock prices eventually.

Why more inflation? Very few goods come to the US via the Suez Canal

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1755284262574584062
Really bad for Biden's odds

Imagine actually believing this will hurt Biden

The point is that there is no ceasefire like Biden is trying to push for. Usually each side underestimates the time it will take until victory, so the war will likely last quite long (with the Red Sea blocked and Iran fighting a proxy war against American in other countries as well).

If the Red Sea is blocked, then the best thing Biden could do for his re-election odds is to unblock it with force.

He has already tried and failed. The blocked Red Sea means more inflation, which also causes higher interest rates and lower stock prices eventually.

Why more inflation? Very few goods come to the US via the Suez Canal

1.Container freight indices, even from China to US and Rotterdam to US, have doubled.

2.Supply chain issues cause shortages, which leads to higher prices.

[Pres Mike]

Rafah is in Gaza, why should Egypt have any say in whether or not Israel is allowed to attack it?  Egypt has made overwhelmingly clear over the last few decades that they want to build as big a wall as possible between the modern Arab Republic of Egypt and their former client state / occupied territory.  They want nothing to do with the many Egyptian now-emigrants who lived in Gaza in 1948 or who migrated there during the subsequent decades where it was Egyptian territory.

Rafah is on the border. Any attack has the potential to accidentally strike the Egyptian side.

Plus, Rafah is kinda the last major safe haven. Attacking Rafah could lead to milions of Palestinians trying to flee into Egypt.

[GoTfan]

The only correct take on this whole mess:

https://twitter.com/Ben_Davison1/status/1755532126374805908

[Meclazine for Israel]

Benjamin Netanyahu

Total Victory

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3EfSDvN8Xc/

[AtorBoltox]

The only correct take on this whole mess:

https://twitter.com/Ben_Davison1/status/1755532126374805908

I like how stuff like this always leave open implicitly that while it may not be all Jews, it is all Israelis

[Meclazine for Israel]

Former Fatah terrorist, Mohammed Masad, explains that the PA and Hamas won't stop their activities because they are making billions.

Palestinian Authority

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3DHW42o-5m/

Who would have guessed?

[CumbrianLefty]

I like how stuff like this always leave open implicitly that while it may not be all Jews, it is all Israelis

Frankly that is nitpicking.

The fact is that people who make such sweeping assertions see "Jew" and "Israel" as interchangeable.

[Meclazine for Israel]

3,400 targets have been hit in Lebanon since October 7.

Hezbollah

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3AwQktNb9F/

The Israeli's appear ready to deal with Hezbollah. Lebanon cannot afford to go to war given their economy.

On another front, senator Ted Budd has said we need to put pressure on Qatar to either get Hamas to free the hostages or get Qatar to expel Hamas from Doha.

Ted Budd

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3DySQfuSkE/

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden: Please end the war, it's hurting my reelection chances.

Blinken: We are so close to a ceasefire deal. We are making progress.

Qatar: Hamas responded positively, and we're about to get a deal.

Netanyahu the next day: Invades Rafah