UK Election 2010

[The Mikado]

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Good lord.

A sucker's bet at 22/1.  300/1 was more like it.

[© tweed]

this stuff is ranking pretty high on the fun chart eh?

[minionofmidas]

I don't see what 1979 and 1983 have to say about the current situation.

1974, otoh...

[Silent Hunter]

I don't see what 1979 and 1983 have to say about the current situation.

1974, otoh...

1979: An unelected Labour PM deals with industrial unrest and a recession.
1983: A strong third-party support and an embattled Labour party.

Please see my blog.

[minionofmidas]

The circumstances of third party rise were very different in 1983 - 1974's (or 1970 if you prefer, though the third party was far weaker then) is more like today's. Besides, you had the Nationalists at a low ebb in 1983

And where the hell is the "industrial unrest" today? Gone, alas. In the past. Finito.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't see what 1979 and 1983 have to say about the current situation.

1974, otoh...

Assuming that most of the LibDem surge doesn't fade away for one reason or another, then 1974 would be a better comparison, yeah. Circumstances and reasons were quite different, but are at least comparable.

[minionofmidas]

Assuming that most of the LibDem surge doesn't fade away for one reason or another

Which is, of course, a big assumption. But one I was making for the sake of argument.

[Democratic Hawk]

And the next debate - foreign policy/international affairs - is a perfect opportunity for Brown and Clegg if they are able to project Cameron as the "Billy No Mates" of international politics, which is what he'd, undoubtedly, be as PM. Especially, after marching the Conservatives out of the sane mainstream centre-right EPP into the arms of fringe nuts from the Czech Republic and Poland. He'll never have the gravitas Brown - a man of substance, like him or not - has.

My fears, more than anything else, is that the hard right of the Conservative Party is just biding its time but waiting for its moment to grab him by the the short and curlies at which point he'd capitulate like a spineless wuss

There's so little substance to Cameron. He can give a fine speech, but fine speeches doth not a leader make; indeed, some of his rhetoric should appeal to me - a humane soul with a most profound social conscience - but his 'Big Society' falls flat because I don't trust him. I'm not sure the party has 'centred' and when I read Tim Montgomerie writing in The Guardian, on Cameron:

“He is crafting a new governing philosophy. It is a work reminiscent of George W Bush's 1999 compassionate conservatism”

That was enough to send shivers down my spine. While the Conservative manifesto is, seemingly, without plans to throw much largesse the way of the wealthiest (aside from increasing the IHT threshold), we all know what compassionate conservatism a la Bush was premised on, aye, the bigger your wallet, and, therefore, the greater your propensity to donate to GOP coffers, the more compassion Bush had

Many of Cameron's ideas just seem too radical and I don't do radical, I never have. He seems to be calling for, and, indeed, is going to rely on an active citizenry. Does he not get it? We are living in an apolitical consumer society, Margaret Thatcher had to leave a legacy somewhere

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And where the hell is the "industrial unrest" today? Gone, alas. In the past. Finito.

There have been a couple of high profile strikes recently. Emphasis on 'couple'. Unions these days prefer to negotiate then head into arbitration rather than strike.

[minionofmidas]

But... well... the comparison with the 70s doesn't exactly hold water does it (nevermind the 20s and 30s! )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But... well... the comparison with the 70s doesn't exactly hold water does it (nevermind the 20s and 30s! )

Of course it doesn't; that was my point! (1920s especially... but don't forget the period just before the first world war either. Btw, the General Strike has always been called the Great Strike in my mother's family).

[minionofmidas]

But... well... the comparison with the 70s doesn't exactly hold water does it (nevermind the 20s and 30s! )

Of course it doesn't; that was my point!

I know, but I decided to be Captain Obvious anyways.
After all, some child had brought it up.

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You're right.

[KuntaKinte]

And where the hell is the "industrial unrest" today? Gone, alas. In the past. Finito.

There have been a couple of high profile strikes recently. Emphasis on 'couple'. Unions these days prefer to negotiate then head into arbitration rather than strike.

What's the rate of unionization these days in Britain? Not yet as bad as, let's say, France, i guess (and hope), but pretty bad, isn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the rate of unionization these days in Britain? Not yet as bad as, let's say, France, i guess (and hope), but pretty bad, isn't it?

The most recent set of figures I can find put it at a shade under 28%. Union membership is highest in Wales (37%) and the North East and Northern Ireland (both 35%). Lowest rates of membership are in the South East of England (21%).

[KuntaKinte]

What's the rate of unionization these days in Britain? Not yet as bad as, let's say, France, i guess (and hope), but pretty bad, isn't it?

The most recent set of figures I can find put it at a shade under 28%. Union membership is highest in Wales (37%) and the North East and Northern Ireland (both 35%). Lowest rates of membership are in the South East of England (21%).

Thanks!
That better I expected. In Germany you're usually told that the unions 'collapsed' during/after the Thatcher years, so to me it's appeasing that you have still more than a quarter of employees in the union.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks!
That better I expected. In Germany you're usually told that the unions 'collapsed' during/after the Thatcher years, so to me it's appeasing that you have still more than a quarter of employees in the union.

The key thing is that union membership used to be extremely high; it peaked in the late 70s at a tad over 50% (and the unions were never especially moderate by international standards either). Current rates are roughly what they were in the late 1930s; it's the (massive) postwar gains that have gone. A lot of that was related to the banning of the closed shop.

[KuntaKinte]

A lot of that was related to the banning of the closed shop.

There were so many closed shops?
I consulted wikipedia, but they don't deliver much information. From what I read about the miner's strike, the pits were no closed shops. And if I'd have expected any UK union to be powerful enough to push through closed shop agreements across the board, it was the NUM.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There were so many closed shops?

Quite a few (concentrated in certain industries) though I don't have anything in front of me at the moment. The collapse of the economies of most of the old industrial areas probably accounted for most of the fall, though. The jobs that replaced the old unionised ones were in the low-pay service sector rubbish.

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I can't entirely remember how things worked wrt that sort of thing in the coal industry (it's especially confusing as different unions overed different aspects of the industry; overhead workers were in NACODS and not the NUM, for example. Amazingly, NACODS is still going) though union membership was pretty much total in most places even if there wasn't a closed shop. The scabs were mostly ex-NUM members who formed their own union (UDM), fwiw.

[KuntaKinte]

The collapse of the economies of most of the old industrial areas probably accounted for most of the fall, though. The jobs that replaced the old unionised ones were in the low-pay service sector rubbish.

*The economic infrastructure
Must be swept away
To make way for call centers
And lower rates of pay*

It's depressing. I must say I'm really glad we just had to deal with s guy like Helmut Kohl, and never with something comparable to Maggie.

The scabs were mostly ex-NUM members who formed their own union (UDM), fwiw.

Yeah, Nottinghamshire and all that. Is the UDM-NUM division still current?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

*The economic infrastructure
Must be swept away
To make way for call centers
And lower rates of pay*

It's depressing. I must say I'm really glad we just had to deal with s guy like Helmut Kohl, and never with something comparable to Maggie.

Utterly depressing, yeah.

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Amusingly enough, yes! Though you can probably count UDM membership on the fingers of your left hand now.

[afleitch]

The pedant in me would say that in fact the 'rates of pay' in call centres were higher.....

[KuntaKinte]

The pedant in me would say that in fact the 'rates of pay' in call centres were higher.....

So in Britain the call center guy makes more than the miner or the steelworker? I don't think so.

[Silent Hunter]

The pedant in me would say that in fact the 'rates of pay' in call centres were higher.....

So in Britain the call center guy makes more than the miner or the steelworker? I don't think so.

There's probably more of the former though...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What an idiotic headline, although I hardly expect better from the Express, but do they really think a stern talking to from Gordon and Dave will make the volcano stop?

Yes. It's the Daily Express - it's all about the emotional outrage. I'm just surprised they didn't have a Princess Diana angle on all this (or perhaps they do inside).

Btw, I haven't been paying attention to your election much, dear chaps, but with that poll I'm beginning to notice a bit.

[You kip if you want to...]

What an idiotic headline, although I hardly expect better from the Express, but do they really think a stern talking to from Gordon and Dave will make the volcano stop?

Yes. It's the Daily Express - it's all about the emotional outrage. I'm just surprised they didn't have a Princess Diana angle on all this (or perhaps they do inside).

Btw, I haven't been paying attention to your election much, dear chaps, but with that poll I'm beginning to notice a bit.

It's been pretty uninteresting... until Thursday.