Georgia Supreme Court Election

[GeorgiaModerate]

My thoughts: uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  The incumbent tag powered Pinson, but this was mitigated by Barrow's higher name recognition in the areas he used to represent.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1793070235987116047

[wbrocks67]

My thoughts: uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  The incumbent tag powered Pinson, but this was mitigated by Barrow's higher name recognition in the areas he used to represent.

Honestly, given all of this, if Barrow can keep it to like 7-8% or something I would say that's not bad at all, considering

[GeorgiaModerate]

Meanwhile, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee is crushing his opponent, as is Fulton County DA Fani Willis in her primary.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What are the odds that black voters are powering Pinson's win? This explains why the inner ring of Atlanta is so bad for Barrow. Perhaps many of them are pro-life and this gives them the opportunity to express that viewpoint without voting for a Republican.

Nah, I’d think pro-life black voters are more likely to live in rural areas as opposed to the metro.

You are seeing it in the rurals though. There is a number of Biden black belt counties going for Pinson right now.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Do we Agree or disagree?

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1793059812156010743?s=46

[wbrocks67]

Given what is out, I don't think Pinson wins double digits

[Oryxslayer]

I warned us going in that these types of nominally nonpartisan court races can have weird or old coalitions.

 The weird part is cause people have little partisan direction on how to act. The old part is usually cause these elections are overrepresented by older voters, who still behave like those days even though they are now outvoted be everyone else when everyone votes.

[Dan the Roman]

I think it makes more sense to argue this election indicates abortion doesn't have much impact in the south as opposed to the Midwest. African Americans are unlikely to have voted for Pinson because of it, but it clearly failed to move them towards  Barrow. It also reinforces the evidence from 2022 that southern suburbanites aren't prochoice in the same way their Midwestern counterparts were.

In that sense, what didn't happen tells us a lot. Because if Barrow were winning by 10% a lot of people here would be rightfully drawing inferences.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

My thoughts: uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  The incumbent tag powered Pinson, but this was mitigated by Barrow's higher name recognition in the areas he used to represent.

Do you know why Barrow chose to run against Pinson? There were three other justices seeking re-election today as well who were left uncontested.

[wbrocks67]

Some e-day vote in any of the major counties would be great...

[wbrocks67]

I think it makes more sense to argue this election indicates abortion doesn't work well in the south as opposed to the Midwest. African Americans are unlikely to have voted for Pinson because of it, but it clearly failed to move them towards  Barrow. It also reinforces the evidence from 2022 that southern suburbanites aren't prochoice in the same way their Midwestern counterparts were.

In that sense, what didn't happen tells us a lot. Because if Barrow were winning by 10% a lot of people here would be rightfully drawing inferences.

Completely disagree, Barrow made abortion an issue but we really don't know how many people even heard of his stance on the issue. He was still out spent by the Republican and barely spent over $1M. It's not like it was universally known that he was running on abortion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My thoughts: uncontroversial incumbents almost always do well.  The incumbent tag powered Pinson, but this was mitigated by Barrow's higher name recognition in the areas he used to represent.

Do you know why Barrow chose to run against Pinson? There were three other justices seeking re-election today as well who were left uncontested.

I have no idea.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think it makes more sense to argue this election indicates abortion doesn't work well in the south as opposed to the Midwest. African Americans are unlikely to have voted for Pinson because of it, but it clearly failed to move them towards  Barrow. It also reinforces the evidence from 2022 that southern suburbanites aren't prochoice in the same way their Midwestern counterparts were.

In that sense, what didn't happen tells us a lot. Because if Barrow were winning by 10% a lot of people here would be rightfully drawing inferences.

Completely disagree, Barrow made abortion an issue but we really don't know how many people even heard of his stance on the issue. He was still out spent by the Republican and barely spent over $1M. It's not like it was universally known that he was running on abortion.

I got 2 mailers from Pinson, nothing from Barrow.  I live in Forsyth County.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1793071648373080522

[Dan the Roman]

I think it makes more sense to argue this election indicates abortion doesn't work well in the south as opposed to the Midwest. African Americans are unlikely to have voted for Pinson because of it, but it clearly failed to move them towards  Barrow. It also reinforces the evidence from 2022 that southern suburbanites aren't prochoice in the same way their Midwestern counterparts were.

In that sense, what didn't happen tells us a lot. Because if Barrow were winning by 10% a lot of people here would be rightfully drawing inferences.

Completely disagree, Barrow made abortion an issue but we really don't know how many people even heard of his stance on the issue. He was still out spent by the Republican and barely spent over $1M. It's not like it was universally known that he was running on abortion.

But that is my point.  If Barrow were winning by 10% it would tell us something about the potency of Dobbs in Georgia because every single other factor was against him.

We can't isolate any single factor for why he lost, because there were plenty of reasons for him to lose.

But there was really only one possible reason he could have won, which is why him not winning tells us Dobbs is not some silver bullet in Georgia which can trump other factors on its own.

Wheras I think there is an argument that it has largely made it impossible for a Republican to win a Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and very hard in Pennsylvania.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, the fact that Barrow is even getting 45% (and likely higher) of the vote based off of just $1M running against an incumbent with no party affiliation actually tells me that he had a pretty strong case here.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1793071648373080522

I think a lot of it was crossover voting and can’t all be attributed to turnout.

[wbrocks67]

I think it makes more sense to argue this election indicates abortion doesn't work well in the south as opposed to the Midwest. African Americans are unlikely to have voted for Pinson because of it, but it clearly failed to move them towards  Barrow. It also reinforces the evidence from 2022 that southern suburbanites aren't prochoice in the same way their Midwestern counterparts were.

In that sense, what didn't happen tells us a lot. Because if Barrow were winning by 10% a lot of people here would be rightfully drawing inferences.

Completely disagree, Barrow made abortion an issue but we really don't know how many people even heard of his stance on the issue. He was still out spent by the Republican and barely spent over $1M. It's not like it was universally known that he was running on abortion.

But that is my point.  If Barrow were winning by 10% it would tell us something about the potency of Dobbs in Georgia because every single other factor was against him.

We can't isolate any single factor for why he lost, because there were plenty of reasons for him to lose.

But there was really only one possible reason he could have won, which is why him not winning tells us Dobbs is not some silver bullet in Georgia which can trump other factors on its own.

Wheras I think there is an argument that it has largely made it impossible for a Republican to win a Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and very hard in Pennsylvania.

If the two candidates spent the same amount of money in GA as they did in Wisconsin (and there was on incumbent label), I think things would've been decently diffferent here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's like this election found a time machine and went back to a Georgia of 20+ years ago

The 1990s called, they want their geographic coalitions back.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://x.com/brent_peabody/status/1793071648373080522

I think a lot of it was crossover voting and can’t all be attributed to turnout.

In addition, if you remind Democrats, you will remind Republicans too. It would have helped Barrow in Atlanta but likely hurt Barrow in the rurals.

[wbrocks67]

https://x.com/brent_peabody/status/1793071648373080522

I think a lot of it was crossover voting and can’t all be attributed to turnout.

In addition, if you remind Democrats, you will remind Republicans too. It would have helped Barrow in Atlanta but likely hurt Barrow in the rurals.

Yep

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1793074600638820712

[Dan the Roman]

I think it makes more sense to argue this election indicates abortion doesn't work well in the south as opposed to the Midwest. African Americans are unlikely to have voted for Pinson because of it, but it clearly failed to move them towards  Barrow. It also reinforces the evidence from 2022 that southern suburbanites aren't prochoice in the same way their Midwestern counterparts were.

In that sense, what didn't happen tells us a lot. Because if Barrow were winning by 10% a lot of people here would be rightfully drawing inferences.

Completely disagree, Barrow made abortion an issue but we really don't know how many people even heard of his stance on the issue. He was still out spent by the Republican and barely spent over $1M. It's not like it was universally known that he was running on abortion.

But that is my point.  If Barrow were winning by 10% it would tell us something about the potency of Dobbs in Georgia because every single other factor was against him.

We can't isolate any single factor for why he lost, because there were plenty of reasons for him to lose.

But there was really only one possible reason he could have won, which is why him not winning tells us Dobbs is not some silver bullet in Georgia which can trump other factors on its own.

Wheras I think there is an argument that it has largely made it impossible for a Republican to win a Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and very hard in Pennsylvania.

If the two candidates spent the same amount of money in GA as they did in Wisconsin (and there was on incumbent label), I think things would've been decently diffferent here.

Perhaps, but if this election were taking place in Wisconsin I don't think it would have gone the way it did.

Barrow failed to galvanize the state party, donors or the voters who should have cared about the issue to find out who to vote for.

If Barrow were up 10% now this thread would be having a very different conversation.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't know what to make of this election.

All I know is that I wanted something encouraging to happen out of it, and I'm not sure I got that.