What does a second Trump term look like?

[GAinDC]

Obviously we can't predict the future, but what do you think will happen if Trump gets another term?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tax cuts for the rich, trickled down economics very similar to Bush W without the war and more racist judges

If we lose Harris career is over anyways where are Solid, Brucejoel and Obama defenders of Harris last time. She needed to be replaced even moreso if Haley is picked not Burgum

[Sir Mohamed]

Obviously disastrous, and I would expect polling in the summer and fall of 2025 that at least 50-55% would prefer Biden had won the election. So basically, like in 2017.

In terms of policy, Trump would be much more erratic and staff up his entire admin with a bunch of hardcore MAGA simps and yes-men. He'll move forward with more aggressive policies on issues like the border, and with several Trump judicial appointees from his 1st term, the courts may not serve as a good check on him.

Legislation obviously depends on the congressional majorities, but he could pass major stuff with small majorities this time around as the GOP House conference and senate caucus will be much more ideologically united compared to 2017/18, when there were the McCains of the world. Trump and the MAGA wing basically "cleaned house" over the last few cycles with just very few skeptics remaining in office.

Additionally, Trump will issue massive personnel overhaul in the executive and judicial branch and use the Justice Dept for retribution against his opponents. His AG almost certainly make Barr or Sessions look like part of Resistance.

On foreign policy, he'll end Ukraine aid which would likely cause Russia to win the war over the median run. Potentially this encourages Putin to go all in on the Baltics while Europe isn't ready to go to war against Russia.

Dems will probably do well in the 2026 midterms and may enter 2028 as the favorite. That said, the damage by that time might be close to irreversible. At least it would require a Dem POTUS with solid majorities for at least 2 full terms (which probably won't happen unless there's an entire realignment of politics and voter coalitions).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Not much. If a trifecta, then just tax cuts, otherwise if Democrats win the House then nothing but another impeachment.

Foreign policy wise we might get ceasefires in Ukraine and Gaza.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is a silver lining in all of this at least Harris won't be the fav to win in 28 Newsom will be but Newsom favs are up over 50 he can beat her in the primary now if they debate, this just makes me hard core anti Harris looking at polls not Biden

At least Ds may not repeat the mistake of nominating a woman for Prez ever again

[Rand]

- Zero crime
- $.50 a gallon gas
- National debt eliminated
- Flying cars that run on freedom
- Supreme Court Justice Tucker Carlson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

- Zero crime
- $.50 a gallon gas
- National debt eliminated
- Flying cars that run on freedom
- Supreme Court Justice Tucker Carlson

Trump ran up the debt more than any other Prez due to his tax CUTS

[GAinDC]

Not much. If a trifecta, then just tax cuts, otherwise if Democrats win the House then nothing but another impeachment.

Foreign policy wise we might get ceasefires in Ukraine and Gaza.

How would Trump broker a ceasefire in both wars?

[GAinDC]

Obviously disastrous, and I would expect polling in the summer and fall of 2025 that at least 50-55% would prefer Biden had won the election. So basically, like in 2017.

In terms of policy, Trump would be much more erratic and staff up his entire admin with a bunch of hardcore MAGA simps and yes-men. He'll move forward with more aggressive policies on issues like the border, and with several Trump judicial appointees from his 1st term, the courts may not serve as a good check on him.

Legislation obviously depends on the congressional majorities, but he could pass major stuff with small majorities this time around as the GOP House conference and senate caucus will be much more ideologically united compared to 2017/18, when there were the McCains of the world. Trump and the MAGA wing basically "cleaned house" over the last few cycles with just very few skeptics remaining in office.

Additionally, Trump will issue massive personnel overhaul in the executive and judicial branch and use the Justice Dept for retribution against his opponents. His AG almost certainly make Barr or Sessions look like part of Resistance.

On foreign policy, he'll end Ukraine aid which would likely cause Russia to win the war over the median run. Potentially this encourages Putin to go all in on the Baltics while Europe isn't ready to go to war against Russia.

Dems will probably do well in the 2026 midterms and may enter 2028 as the favorite. That said, the damage by that time might be close to irreversible. At least it would require a Dem POTUS with solid majorities for at least 2 full terms (which probably won't happen unless there's an entire realignment of politics and voter coalitions).

This all seems plausible and it's terrifying

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously disastrous, and I would expect polling in the summer and fall of 2025 that at least 50-55% would prefer Biden had won the election. So basically, like in 2017.

In terms of policy, Trump would be much more erratic and staff up his entire admin with a bunch of hardcore MAGA simps and yes-men. He'll move forward with more aggressive policies on issues like the border, and with several Trump judicial appointees from his 1st term, the courts may not serve as a good check on him.

Legislation obviously depends on the congressional majorities, but he could pass major stuff with small majorities this time around as the GOP House conference and senate caucus will be much more ideologically united compared to 2017/18, when there were the McCains of the world. Trump and the MAGA wing basically "cleaned house" over the last few cycles with just very few skeptics remaining in office.

Additionally, Trump will issue massive personnel overhaul in the executive and judicial branch and use the Justice Dept for retribution against his opponents. His AG almost certainly make Barr or Sessions look like part of Resistance.

On foreign policy, he'll end Ukraine aid which would likely cause Russia to win the war over the median run. Potentially this encourages Putin to go all in on the Baltics while Europe isn't ready to go to war against Russia.

Dems will probably do well in the 2026 midterms and may enter 2028 as the favorite. That said, the damage by that time might be close to irreversible. At least it would require a Dem POTUS with solid majorities for at least 2 full terms (which probably won't happen unless there's an entire realignment of politics and voter coalitions).

This all seems plausible and it's terrifying

Lol we go thru 2 Terms of Bush W with that Edwards pick instead of Kerry picking Gephardt and David Axelerod told Kerry to pick Edwards instead of Gephardt and Edwards turned out to be a sex abuser

As soon as Kerry lost I said Gephardt would of won CO, NV, OH, VA and NM and IA

[ShadowRocket]

I'll start with a sliver of silver lining: I don't think he gets much done legislatively.  My current expectation is that the Democrats win back control of the House regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election so he at least has a check on that front.

But on the flipside, I think its borderline a foregone conclusion that the GOP will take the Senate.  In which case he gets to appoint more conservative judges that continue to issue rulings out of step with the majority of the country.  Alito and Thomas both retire and the current conservative majority on the Supreme Court is cemented even further.

Faced with a Democratic House, he governs mostly by executive order.  The federal bureaucracy becomes exponentially politicized following massive layoffs.

The 2026 midterms are a Blue Wave with Democrats growing their House majority and winning back the Senate.

MTG and her ilk propose repealing the 22nd Amendment which ultimately goes nowhere.  Trump pays lip service to running again but is privately vindicated that he was able to stage a comeback in 2024 and surprisingly makes no concerted effort to run again in '28

The 2028 Presidential Election is a 2008 redux with a progressive Democrat being elected.  Trump says he would've won in a landslide had he ran again.

So in sum, I'm naively optimistic the country survives but is undoubtedly worse off.

[GAinDC]

I'll start with a sliver of silver lining: I don't think he gets much done legislatively.  My current expectation is that the Democrats win back control of the House regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election so he at least has a check on that front.

But on the flipside, I think its borderline a foregone conclusion that the GOP will take the Senate.  In which case he gets to appoint more conservative judges that continue to issue rulings out of step with the majority of the country.  Alito and Thomas both retire and the current conservative majority on the Supreme Court is cemented even further.

Faced with a Democratic House, he governs mostly by executive order.  The federal bureaucracy becomes exponentially politicized following massive layoffs.

The 2026 midterms are a Blue Wave with Democrats growing their House majority and winning back the Senate.

MTG and her ilk propose repealing the 22nd Amendment which ultimately goes nowhere.  Trump pays lip service to running again but is privately vindicated that he was able to stage a comeback in 2024 and surprisingly makes no concerted effort to run again in '28

The 2028 Presidential Election is a 2008 redux with a progressive Democrat being elected.  Trump says he would've won in a landslide had he ran again.

So in sum, I'm naively optimistic the country survives but is undoubtedly worse off.

How does 2026 go for Dems? Is it like a 2018 or a 2010 in terms of seats gained?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I'll start with a sliver of silver lining: I don't think he gets much done legislatively.  My current expectation is that the Democrats win back control of the House regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election so he at least has a check on that front.

But on the flipside, I think its borderline a foregone conclusion that the GOP will take the Senate.  In which case he gets to appoint more conservative judges that continue to issue rulings out of step with the majority of the country.  Alito and Thomas both retire and the current conservative majority on the Supreme Court is cemented even further.

Faced with a Democratic House, he governs mostly by executive order.  The federal bureaucracy becomes exponentially politicized following massive layoffs.

The 2026 midterms are a Blue Wave with Democrats growing their House majority and winning back the Senate.

MTG and her ilk propose repealing the 22nd Amendment which ultimately goes nowhere.  Trump pays lip service to running again but is privately vindicated that he was able to stage a comeback in 2024 and surprisingly makes no concerted effort to run again in '28

The 2028 Presidential Election is a 2008 redux with a progressive Democrat being elected.  Trump says he would've won in a landslide had he ran again.

So in sum, I'm naively optimistic the country survives but is undoubtedly worse off.

How does 2026 go for Dems? Is it like a 2018 or a 2010 in terms of seats gained?

Depends on how much Rs start with, but could see a D +15 generic ballot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'll start with a sliver of silver lining: I don't think he gets much done legislatively.  My current expectation is that the Democrats win back control of the House regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election so he at least has a check on that front.

But on the flipside, I think its borderline a foregone conclusion that the GOP will take the Senate.  In which case he gets to appoint more conservative judges that continue to issue rulings out of step with the majority of the country.  Alito and Thomas both retire and the current conservative majority on the Supreme Court is cemented even further.

Faced with a Democratic House, he governs mostly by executive order.  The federal bureaucracy becomes exponentially politicized following massive layoffs.

The 2026 midterms are a Blue Wave with Democrats growing their House majority and winning back the Senate.

MTG and her ilk propose repealing the 22nd Amendment which ultimately goes nowhere.  Trump pays lip service to running again but is privately vindicated that he was able to stage a comeback in 2024 and surprisingly makes no concerted effort to run again in '28

The 2028 Presidential Election is a 2008 redux with a progressive Democrat being elected.  Trump says he would've won in a landslide had he ran again.

So in sum, I'm naively optimistic the country survives but is undoubtedly worse off.

How does 2026 go for Dems? Is it like a 2018 or a 2010 in terms of seats gained?

Depends on how much Rs start with, but could see a D +15 generic ballot.

No, they won't start out at D 15 percent it will be D 3 on GCB we still have gerrymandering in the Deep S the S map is identical to 24 map. Also, 28 S map is identical to 303 map except in 26 Daines is vulnerable to Busse when Busse loses to GIANFORTE and Vance is vulnerable to Landmam


Also, Trump won't be vulnerable until he does as he said he would do free the insurrection he probably will have close to 50 percent Approvals the day he enters office but the outcry when he frees the insurrection will cost Rs seats

[SnowLabrador]

If we don't fight Trump like hell, we won't have a country anymore.

[GAinDC]

I agree with pretty much all of the predictions so far.

As much of the current polling shows, a lot of Trump's support is based on his "image" and "branding" than anything else, and I think a second Trump term would be really detrimental to him and the GOP in that regard:

High chance we enter a recession or a period of sluggish growth in the next five years, which erodes Trump's advantage on the economy.

Trump also will likely be forced to deal with some sort of punishment if he is convicted. A President under house arrest or on probation is a very bad look. If Trump tries to fight it, he looks like he's above the law and focusing more on his legal troubles than governing. If he doesn't, it will be embarrassing for him, his supporters and the country to have a President locked up.

As we've seen on the campaign trail, he's not as sharp tongued as he used to be. He's made a lot of weird gaffes that will probably become more frequent and more public if he's president again. That probably leads to his handlers hiding him away more and propping him up only when necessary. That gives aging cult leader/dictator vibes that will not make people feel any better about his leadership.

Best thing for the GOP is to take the L in 2024 and come back stronger, without Trump. I know that means another Biden term will be tough for Dems, but I'm ok with that if it means Trump is gone for good.

[emailking]

Best thing for the GOP is to take the L in 2024 and come back stronger, without Trump. I know that means another Biden term will be tough for Dems, but I'm ok with that if it means Trump is gone for good.

Yeah the unfortunate part of Trump hopefully losing is that 2026 could be a bloodbath for Dems. Might go the other way too if Biden gets more popular in the 2nd term like some Presidents, but I think more likely than not he doesn't and there will be heavy losses.

[Umengus]

-revenge

-border crisis solved

-if riots, send army to kill criminals (not like in 2020 when Trump acted like a pussycat)

-support Israel, kill terrorists (Iran,Isis,...). Maybe a big agreement US-Israel-Arabs

-taxe cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

-revenge

-border crisis solved

-if riots, send army to kill criminals (not like in 2020 when Trump acted like a pussycat)

-support Israel, kill terrorists (Iran,Isis,...). Maybe a big agreement US-Israel-Arabs

-taxe cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts.

You aren't gonna get very few of the tax cuts, rich people get 40 K

[DrScholl]

Mass murders of political opponents.
Undocumented immigrants murdered and thrown in mass graves.
The Republican Party is declared the only legal political party.
Elections are declared postponed indefinitely.
Open exchanges of money for political favors with no legal consequences.
Women arrested for having abortions and sentenced to long sentences.
Segregation re-litigated (Brown vs. The Board of Education possibly overturned).
Homosexuality outlawed in most red states with gay spaces being raided by police.
Social Security and Medicare gutted.
HUD abolished with public housing being sold to private developers and Section 8 vouchers ended.
Department of Education abolished. Public schools will be turned over to religious institutions.

[wnwnwn]

Mass murders of political opponents.
Undocumented immigrants murdered and thrown in mass graves.
The Republican Party is declared the only legal political party.
Elections are declared postponed indefinitely.
Open exchanges of money for political favors with no legal consequences.
Women arrested for having abortions and sentenced to long sentences.
Segregation re-litigated (Brown vs. The Board of Education possibly overturned).
Homosexuality outlawed in most red states with gay spaces being raided by police.
Social Security and Medicare gutted.
HUD abolished with public housing being sold to private developers and Section 8 vouchers ended.
Department of Education abolished. Public schools will be turned over to religious institutions.

2035:

... bUt tHe cRiMe rAtE lOwErEd,

Yeah, Maga boy, give me the rubles you own me.

[heatcharger]

Mass murders of political opponents.
Undocumented immigrants murdered and thrown in mass graves.
The Republican Party is declared the only legal political party.
Elections are declared postponed indefinitely.
Open exchanges of money for political favors with no legal consequences.
Women arrested for having abortions and sentenced to long sentences.
Segregation re-litigated (Brown vs. The Board of Education possibly overturned).
Homosexuality outlawed in most red states with gay spaces being raided by police.
Social Security and Medicare gutted.
HUD abolished with public housing being sold to private developers and Section 8 vouchers ended.
Department of Education abolished. Public schools will be turned over to religious institutions.

So true!

[Oppo]

I think Erdogan post-2016 would be a pretty useful analog, particularly with both men's desire to purge the civil service.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Erdogan post-2016 would be a pretty useful analog, particularly with both men's desire to purge the civil service.

Netanyahu since 2023 looks like the better international comparison, though hopefully without a 10/7.

[7,052,770]

"OmG I can't bel-ie-eve he's doing everything they warned us he was going to do and MORE!!!!11"