A brief History of the three closest states in Presidential elections

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

After a recent set of polls- showing large leads for Trump in the Sun Belt, but a more competitive race in the Rust Belt. I decided to loo at the History of Presidential candidates sweeping the closest states.  

Present polling indicates that the 3 Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are (along with NE-2) Biden's best chance. At present polling averages have Trump ahead slightly in all three. These seem to be the right now the odds on favorite to be the closest states in 2024. What are the chances someone sweeps all three.

I decided to look into the history of candidates wining the 3 closest states.

1. Biden did in 2020 but that is a rather thing. In 2016 for instance the Clinton won 2nd  closest state was New Hampshire, While Trump won Michigan (1st) and Pennsylvania (3rd). It is must more likely that the 3 closest states split

2. The last time the three closest states went for the same candidates was 40 years  earlier in 1980 when Reagan won 44 states.

3. If you want to exclude blow outs the last time was in 1960 when JFK swept Hawaii (by only 115 votes), Illinois (insert Mayor Daley voter fraud allegations here) and Missouri.


TLDR version- Don't count on one candidate to sweep the 3 closest states. Biden likely needs a general improvement/ polling error.      

[Progressive Pessimist]

A pro-Biden polling error is very possible.

Trump is not going to get the numbers polls are finding him at.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

A pro-Biden polling error is very possible.

Trump is not going to get the numbers polls are finding him at.

What candidate has been underestimated for two successive presidential cycles again ?

There's as much a possibility that the polling error favors Trump than favors Biden.

[emailking]

If I understand this correctly, the winner(s) of the 3 closest states doesn't correlate will with the winner of the election.

[Radicalneo]

A pro-Biden polling error is very possible.

Trump is not going to get the numbers polls are finding him at.

What candidate has been underestimated for two successive presidential cycles again ?

There's as much a possibility that the polling error favors Trump than favors Biden.

Trump isn’t winning Nevada by 15.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

A pro-Biden polling error is very possible.

Trump is not going to get the numbers polls are finding him at.

What candidate has been underestimated for two successive presidential cycles again ?

There's as much a possibility that the polling error favors Trump than favors Biden.

Trump isn’t winning Nevada by 15.

The average doesn't have Trump winning by double digits in Nevada.