NYT donations map

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/16/us/elections/biden-trump-donors.html



These 2 maps show the net change in donors by county from the 2020 cycle. In general, the number of Trump donors hasn't changed much from 2020 whereas Biden has seen an increased number of donors since 2020. However, one confounding variable that in 2020 Dem donors were split between multiple candidates as the primary played out.

Another thing to consider is that it's hard to extrapolate how meaningful these giant spikes are. LA County has a giant spike as Biden has gained nearly 5000 more voters since 2020, however, in the context of a County of 10 million people, that might not be very meaningful.

With that being said, there are many aspects of this graph which align with conventional wisdom. For instance, the biggest positive Trump spikes are in places where the GOP has gained in recent cycles (Miami-Dade, Long Island) or fast growing GOP strongholds (Mohave County AZ, Horry County SC, parts of Utah and Idaho, ect).

Trump has seen declines in most of the metros that shifted hard against him in 2020 (Denver, Atlanta, Dallas, ect). I wonder if some of this is some Rs unhappy with Trump in these areas donating to Haley instead.

For Biden, the biggest spikes almost universally come from urban areas and honestly where the green spikes are seem to correlate with the 2016-->2020 swing map quite a bit. Many of the biggest spikes seem to be in white-liberal bastions like Seattle, Austin, Denver, Twin Cities, Boston, ect. whereas Dem cities with larger non-white populations haven't held up quite as well like Dallas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, NYC, ect. Also seems like there's pretty big dropoffs in the Philly and DC areas which is interesting considering both have a lot of white liberals.

Again, because the number of donors relative to the overall population is small and likely unrepresentative, I wouldn't read into this too much but still interestingly. Also another one of those smaller metrics that at least topline suggests Biden should be fine in re-election despite polls.

Thoughts?

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

 
Looking at the zoom ins for Arizona (and Clark County NV), it seems like total donations are decreasing/increasing in the same Metro Las Vegas zip codes for both candidates, with a southwest (less) vs northeast (more) divide.
Trump has gained relative to Biden in NV because his gains in the North and East parts of Vegas are greater than Biden's, even though his losses in the South and Southwest are also larger than Biden's.

[GAinDC]

Interesting data but it’s hard to extrapolate much from it at this point in the race

ATL seeing fewer donations for Biden and Trump is interesting. Wonder why they have both fallen off in some areas?

[Crumpets]

I'm guessing this includes data from the 2020 primary, since Biden's biggest drop offs are in his home state and in states with competitive primaries in 2020. New Hampshire is the exception, and that was a state where Biden was not competitive in the primary.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I guess I need to ramp up my donations. Charleston county is slacking this time

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm guessing this includes data from the 2020 primary, since Biden's biggest drop offs are in his home state and in states with competitive primaries in 2020. New Hampshire is the exception, and that was a state where Biden was not competitive in the primary.

Yeah SC and IA in particular really stand out in this reguard.

I also wonder if in SC Nikki Haley could be any sort of factor - perhaps some anti-Trump Republicans who supported Biden in 2020 instead chose to give money to Nikki Haley in her primary against Trump?

[redjohn]

Dane county pulling above our weight (per usual ).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dane county pulling above our weight (per usual ).

Dane County really deserves an MVP award from Dems.

Super blue considering its demographics, high turnout even in midterms and other off elections, and cycle after cycle seems to net Dems more votes thanks to solid growth. Main reason why Dems continue to stay viable in WI.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Looking at the zoom ins for Arizona (and Clark County NV), it seems like total donations are decreasing/increasing in the same Metro Las Vegas zip codes for both candidates, with a southwest (less) vs northeast (more) divide.
Trump has gained relative to Biden in NV because his gains in the North and East parts of Vegas are greater than Biden's, even though his losses in the South and Southwest are also larger than Biden's.

I'm guessing the strongest Vegas surge in Trump donations is coming from the area north of Henderson that's "Vegas working class melting pot"? The dropoff in overall donations seems strongest in "Vegas Asian Growth" and the SE "suburban crescent", with the Biden dropoff being slightly heavier in "Asian growth" and the Trump dropoff being heavier in the "suburban crescent"

https://www.patrickruffini.com/p/can-trump-turn-the-silver-state-to

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at the zoom ins for Arizona (and Clark County NV), it seems like total donations are decreasing/increasing in the same Metro Las Vegas zip codes for both candidates, with a southwest (less) vs northeast (more) divide.
Trump has gained relative to Biden in NV because his gains in the North and East parts of Vegas are greater than Biden's, even though his losses in the South and Southwest are also larger than Biden's.

I'm guessing the strongest Vegas surge in Trump donations is coming from the area north of Henderson that's "Vegas working class melting pot"? The dropoff in overall donations seems strongest in "Vegas Asian Growth" and the SE "suburban crescent", with the Biden dropoff being slightly heavier in "Asian growth" and the Trump dropoff being heavier in the "suburban crescent"

https://www.patrickruffini.com/p/can-trump-turn-the-silver-state-to

Yeah honestly for me it’s what the opposite of what I’d generally expect - I’d expect Biden to hold up better with donations in places like Summerlin and Henderson and collapse in the heavily Hispanic northeast corner of the metro area.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Part of why does trump bad among donations is because a lot of people wouldn't donate to their campaign but would just pay for his court cases.

[Rand]

Trump supporters are poor.