leading 2012 GOP presidential candidates as of early 2009?--10/07 edition

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I did a poll that was similar to this back in March.  This one's similar, but now that the '08 presidential race is further developed, people's opinions might have shifted.  I'll probably do another poll like this in February, once the '08 nominations have been clinched, and then again in late Summer '08 after the VP nominees have been chosen.

For the purpose of this poll, assume the Democrats win the 2008 presidential election.  Whichever scenario for a Democratic victory in '08 that you think is most likely, assume that that happens.  Now here's the question: In the spring of 2009 (just ~18 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier"  of potential contenders for the 2012 GOP nomination?

Unlike the previous iteration of this poll, you can now pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

My picks are: Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney (Huckabee and Romney would only happen if they're not nominated in 2008 and lose the general election).  I'm tempted to throw a more unknown possibility in there, like Pawlenty, but no one jumps out at me.

For fun, if you like, you can also offer your opinion on who the media will include in the very first 2012 GOP primary poll, which would probably come as early as Nov. 2008.  In 2004, McLaughlin & Associates did a 2008 poll on election day, which included these names and results:

Giuliani 30
McCain 18
Jeb Bush 5
Frist 2
Pataki 2
Romney 1
Owens 1

Their list included three people (Giuliani, McCain, and Romney) who would eventually become leading candidates for the nomination, along with a bunch of others who didn't run.

[Mr. Morden]

These were the top choices from a similar poll here in March (when you were limited to two options, and the question was phrased a bit differently):

(name, followed by # of votes)

Jeb Bush 13
Crist 8
Pence 7
Barbour 6
Pawlenty 5
Thompson 5

[Erc]

Barbour: will leave office as Governor of MS in 2011.  A possibility, but his "management of Katrina" appeal will have faded considerably.  More likely to head back Washington to lobby.
Jeb Bush:  left office as Governor of FL in 2006.  Perhaps a bit too long out of the public sphere, plus the obvious name connotations.  Only a possibility if there's any sort of Bush nostalgia, which would only be possible if Iraq gets considerably better before January 2009 and the new Democratic President really messes things up.
Norm Coleman:  assuming he wins in '08.  Still, not the strongest candidate and not very likely to run.
Cornyn: nope
Crist:  Assuming he wins re-election in 2010, definite possibility.
Ensign:  I can't imagine him running.
Giuliani:  If he doesn't win the nomination this time around, he's not winning it in 2012.  And should he win the nomination and lose, the Republicans won't be offering him a second chance.
Graham:  Nope.  A bit...eccentric...in his views.
Hagel:  Is departing politics for good this year.
Huckabee:  Yes, if he places a strong second in the 2008 primary competition, or is a inspiring VP candidate brought down by the head of the ticket.
Hutchison:  not likely to run, getting on the old side, perhaps too moderate.
Jindal:  A possibility, although I'd say he's more likely to wait until 2016.  (the man's only 36, he's got plenty of time)
Owens:  hasn't been in office since 2006.  Too far out of the public eye--if he wasn't running in '08, he's not running in 2012.
Palin:  If nothing else, Alaska is too far away from the rest of the country for her to keep being Governor and make the usual swings through Iowa / NH.
Pawlenty:  Could very well run for re-election in 2010, or challenge Klobuchar.  If he does neither, he's a definite possibility.
Pence:  It's always said he's going places, but he's still in the House and essentially nobody's heard of him.  Unless Bayh is the VP and Pence gets the Senate seat, he's not leaving the House far enough before 2012...and then he has to defend the seat in 2010.
Rice:  Again, no, barring Bush nostalgia.
Riley:  highly unlikely
Rounds:  Probably unelectable on a national basis.
Sanford:  Will leave office in 2010.  It's a slim possibility, but I can't see him wanting to go on in politics after 2010.
Sununu:  Will lose his effort for re-election in 2008
Thompson:  Don't make me laugh.
Thune:  Possible.

[Frodo]

Assuming a moderate (or craven flip-flopper) wins the nomination and loses to Hillary Clinton in '08, Republicans will likely go back to their roots with a real conservative, probably a southern governor (or former governor). 

I'm picking Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Mark Sanford of South Carolina, and Haley Barbour of Mississippi. 

[phk]

I agree with Frodo.

I would even go as far as to say that a governor from the upper-south or midwest would be the best geographically.

I can't name any names though.

[Mr. Morden]

I hate to even bring this up, as in an ideal world it would be a non-issue, but what about the rumors that Crist is gay?  Are those rumors serious enough to dampen his chances in a potential presidential run?  Or even just the fact that he's single?  In today's GOP, is being single a harder sell than being on your third marriage?

[Frodo]

Barbour: will leave office as Governor of MS in 2011.  A possibility, but his "management of Katrina" appeal will have faded considerably.  More likely to head back Washington to lobby.

Or he could just as likely run for Trent Lott's senate seat if and when he decides not to run for another term in 2012.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 

Agreed -he's probably more likely to run for Richard Shelby's senate seat (assuming the latter retires) in 2010.

[Verily]

Mike Pence, Sarah Palin and John Thune were my choices, all three apparently not very popular with others. I'll elaborate further if asked.

[Mr. Morden]

Mike Pence, Sarah Palin and John Thune were my choices, all three apparently not very popular with others. I'll elaborate further if asked.

Yes, please elaborate.  I'm especially curious about what you think about Palin.  I don't really know much about her, other than the fact that she's one of the few Republican women to hold major elective office who's pro-life and generally socially conservative.  Maybe that's enough, if enough Republicans think that they need to put up another woman to run against Hillary Clinton, yet they can't stomach nominating a Susan Collins or a Jodi Rell....though I'm still not sure if one can successfully launch a national political campaign out of Alaska.

Oh, and on a similar note, I just found this blog:

http://palinforvp.blogspot.com/

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Mike Huckabee, Mark Sanford and Mike Pence in my mind would be considered leading 2012 GOP Presidential candidates as of early 2009. I reckon a ticket of Huckabee/Pence would be a pretty strong one, but would lose to Clinton/Bayh.

[Colin]

Crist, Sanford and Huckabee were my choices. I think Crist could be a good candidate however the only problem I can see for him would be the rumours concerning his sexuality which could put off the Republican base.

[HappyWarrior]

Huckabee, Pawlenty, and Barbour, especially if Huck is the 2008 VP nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

So it looks like people are expecting a GOP nomination fight dominated by current or former Southern governors (Huckabee, Crist, Bush, Sanford, Barbour....).  I guess that makes some sense, since there are few current GOP Senators who obviously have their eye on the White House, and excepting small states like North Dakota, few popular GOP governors left outside the South.

Still, I wonder if Huckabee v. Crist v. Sanford v. Barbour might be Southern overload, and whether that might create an opening for a Palin or a Pence or a Pawlenty.

[© tweed]

voted Barbour, Bush, Rice

[big bad fab]

Well, the GOP list is shorter and older and... than the Dem list.
A real problem for the future for the GOP.

What about a comeback of Colin Powell or a rock'n roll choice like Bloomberg ?!?

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg is an Independent now, not a Republican.  Powell will be 75 in 2012, and he's never run for public office before.  He's had ample opportunity to run for president already, and he's never taken the bait.  No reason to think he would do so in 2012.

[big bad fab]

"Justement", Bloomberg (I know he is Ind. and even former Dem) would be the only opportunity for the Gop to win....

And I know Powell's age: just to underline the GOP puzzle: hardly any new and/or young faces.

[Kevin]

"Justement", Bloomberg (I know he is Ind. and even former Dem) would be the only opportunity for the Gop to win....

And I know Powell's age: just to underline the GOP puzzle: hardly any new and/or young faces.

You're forgetting Crist and Jindal.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd put Charlie Crist really high up on that list along w/Bill Owens as a darkhorse

[ShadowRocket]

I'm not really sure. I could see Jeb Bush's name being thrown around. Mike Huckabee might be a possibility.

[Lief 🗽]

Republicans will want to turn back to nominating moderates after losing in 2008.

Who is a moderate, successful Republican politician from a swing state?
Charlie Crist. Even I like Crist.

[Verily]

Mike Pence, Sarah Palin and John Thune were my choices, all three apparently not very popular with others. I'll elaborate further if asked.

Yes, please elaborate.  I'm especially curious about what you think about Palin.  I don't really know much about her, other than the fact that she's one of the few Republican women to hold major elective office who's pro-life and generally socially conservative.  Maybe that's enough, if enough Republicans think that they need to put up another woman to run against Hillary Clinton, yet they can't stomach nominating a Susan Collins or a Jodi Rell....though I'm still not sure if one can successfully launch a national political campaign out of Alaska.

Oh, and on a similar note, I just found this blog:

http://palinforvp.blogspot.com/

At the time, I was basing my assumption on the idea that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic President in 2009, and that, unless she is somehow very unpopular by that time, the Republicans would not be able to unseat her without eating into what will presumably be a substantial advantage among women voters. As Clinton's Democratic primary victory now looks less certain, Palin may be marginally less likely a candidate (though, now that one major female candidate runs, I think it opens the floodgates to others who previously considered themselves unelectable).

Of course, Sarah Palin also has all of the credentials of a stellar Republican candidate. She's conservative on most issues, though not so conservative as to be off-putting to centrists in the party. She has shown broad consensus-building skills in Alaska, working with the bipartisan coalition that controls the Alaska Senate very effectively.

She's a new face, and she can play up her anti-old guard credentials for being Frank Murkowski's ouster. Really, the only disadvantage I can see for her as a candidate is that Alaska is far from the rest of the country, but her smooth running of Alaska also means that their governor doesn't need to be at home every day any more.

[Michael Z]

Crist, Huckabee, Pawlenty.

[ShadowRocket]

Reviving this thread, I've been thinking that John Ensign could be a stong GOP candidate down the line. A conservative, Western Senator could play well against a Democratic incumbent in 2012.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

In order:
Thune
Jindal
Hutchinson


All 3 have issues to overcome: Thune is from a very small state and an initial launch would be horribly difficult in most circumstances. Jindal would be very hard to sell unless the media gave him proper coverage or the entire nation went blind. Hutchinson will be quite old and wants to retire as it is, I don't see her having much aspirations for the spot in 2012.