Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

The closest in Whatcom County was a precinct near WWU, in the Sehome neighborhood, that voted 80% Obama, 10% Romney, 9% Other (a mix of Stein, Johnson, and some Rocky Anderson.)

I used to live in that precinct.

Out of curiosity, here it is compared to 2008:

2008
87.18% Obama
10.62%  McCain
2.20% Other

2012:
80.14% Obama (-7.04)
10.40% Romney (-0.22)
9.46% Other (+7.26)

---

And the other Bellingham precinct I lived in:

2008:
87.28% Obama
10.52% McCain
2.20% Other

2012:
83.61% Obama (-3.67)
10.37% Romney (-0.15)
6.02% Other (+3.82)

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here's Tim Eyeman's intitiative in my hometown of Bellingham:




Only 51.89% of our electorate voted against in, compared to 53% or so last time. 

I think college students tend to be low-information voters, and low-information liberals seem to vote Yes on Eyman stuff much more often.  You'll notice that the stand-out "Yes" precincts among the "No" are actually the WWU campus and surrounding, student-heavy precincts.  WWU itself wasn't even that close:

245 (Western Washington University): Yes 370, No 260 (59% Yes)
252 (Fairhaven College at WWU): Yes 138, No 113 (55% Yes)

Nice map, by the way!

Thank you 

[wdolson]

Hello all.  I'm fairly new to the forums.  I guess I'm the only Washingtonian here from Clark County.  Jaime Herrera Beutler is my House Rep, though I never voted for her.

Back in 2010 when this was an open seat Denny Heck and her were in a tight race for this seat.  Super pacs pumped a lot of money into the Portland TV market with negative ads against Denny Heck which gave Herrera Beutler the seat.

The redistricting for the 2012 election has had more impact on WA-3 than I think any other district in the state.  WA-3 is now much smaller geographically and includes a section of the Columbia River east of Clark County (a former portion of Doc Hasting's district).  WA-3 used to be a swing district with the liberal Olympia suburbs in the north offset by the more conservative Clark County to the south.  Now it's a pretty conservative district overall.

Herrera Beutler has always come across as very fake to me.  Her smile seems too forced and too fake.  Her record doesn't thrill me either. 

Considering WA-3's demographics, Herrera Beutler is probably going to be there for a while unless something happens like the entire country suddenly has a big political shift, or she gets run out in some scandal.

Some other observations:
Here in Clark County, we're sort of isolated from what's going on in the rest of WA.  You need to seek out political news on the state because the Portland media market generally ignores WA politics unless something big happens.

Another thing I noted is that CA's new districting and primary system got national news in the last couple of months like it was something brand new when CA pretty much pinched the same system WA has used for several years (in the case of the primaries) or decades (for redistricting). 

Not to bash on CA.  I grew up there and most of my family still lives there.  It just seems like one of those 600 pound gorilla things.  The country ignores it when a medium-small state like WA adopts it, but it becomes a headline if a big state does the same thing.

If CA goes to all vote by mail it will probably be big national news too, even though OR pioneered the idea (in the US).

Bill

[Meeker]

Another thing I noted is that CA's new districting and primary system got national news in the last couple of months like it was something brand new when CA pretty much pinched the same system WA has used for several years (in the case of the primaries) or decades (for redistricting). 

Not to bash on CA.  I grew up there and most of my family still lives there.  It just seems like one of those 600 pound gorilla things.  The country ignores it when a medium-small state like WA adopts it, but it becomes a headline if a big state does the same thing.

If CA goes to all vote by mail it will probably be big national news too, even though OR pioneered the idea (in the US).

I've noticed this phenomenon as well. California adopted online voter registration for the 2012 cycle and I saw a couple news articles that heralded this as some revolutionary breakthrough. They all ignored that fact that we've had that system in place for several cycles now (heck, you can now even register to vote on Facebook in this state).

Also, welcome to the forum!

[Ogre Mage]

Hello all.  I'm fairly new to the forums.  I guess I'm the only Washingtonian here from Clark County.  Jaime Herrera Beutler is my House Rep, though I never voted for her.

Back in 2010 when this was an open seat Denny Heck and her were in a tight race for this seat.  Super pacs pumped a lot of money into the Portland TV market with negative ads against Denny Heck which gave Herrera Beutler the seat.

The redistricting for the 2012 election has had more impact on WA-3 than I think any other district in the state.  WA-3 is now much smaller geographically and includes a section of the Columbia River east of Clark County (a former portion of Doc Hasting's district).  WA-3 used to be a swing district with the liberal Olympia suburbs in the north offset by the more conservative Clark County to the south.  Now it's a pretty conservative district overall.

Herrera Beutler has always come across as very fake to me.  Her smile seems too forced and too fake.  Her record doesn't thrill me either. 

Considering WA-3's demographics, Herrera Beutler is probably going to be there for a while unless something happens like the entire country suddenly has a big political shift, or she gets run out in some scandal.
Bill

Welcome to the forums!  I used to be in Herrera-Beutler's district so I feel your pain.  She's not blatantly offensive in an Allen West or Michele Bachmann way, but she is a GOP drone.  I agree that in the newly redrawn WA-03, she is safe barring a Democratic wave or scandal.

[Seattle]

Welcome! It would take an 06/08 type of environment to get even a close race with Herrera-Beutler. What did she get this year? 60%? That's impressive considering McMorris Rodgers did only marginally better than her and she's in a considerably more R district.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

And just for the lulz, I also did the gubernatorial, senatorial, and presidential elections:

[bgwah]

Tim Sheldon was "only" re-elected 54-46 over another Democrat in his re-election bid to the Mason County Commission. He beat the same opponent 63-37 in 2008 (and I still can't believe he gets away with holding two elected offices like that). And not that anyone cares, independents won both of the other seats up, beating Democrats in both cases.

It's always interesting when independents win partisan races. It's not terribly uncommon in some of the smaller counties. Wahkiakum also has a 2-1 independent commission. One won in Clallam as well.

[Meeker]

Not sure about in Wahkiakum and Clallam, but both of those independents in Mason County were just Republicans who figured out that they could win more easily with that ballot label (one of them has actually run as a Republican candidate in the past; don't know about the other).

[Meeker]

While we're on the fascinating subject of county commissioners, here's some data I assembled about county commissioners in all 39 Washington counties as a result of this month's election!

3 Republicans: Adams, Benton, Chelan, Columbia, Douglas, Ferry, Franklin, Grant, Kittitas, Klickitat, Lewis, Lincoln, Okanogan, Pend Oreille, Skamania, Spokane, Stevens, Walla Walla, Whitman, Yakima

2 Republicans, 1 Democrat: Clark, Grays Harbor, Island

2 Republicans, 1 Independent: Garfield

1 Republican, 1 Democrat, 1 Independent: Asotin, Clallam, Cowlitz

2 Independents, 1 Democrat: Mason, Wahkiakum

2 Democrats, 1 Republican: Skagit

3 Democrats: Jefferson, Kitsap, Pacific, Thurston

County Councils: Pierce (5-2 R-D with a D executive), Snohomish (4-1 D-R with a D executive)

Non-partisan Councils: King (in reality 5-4 D-R with a D executive), San Juan (I have no real idea what these people are), Whatcom (in reality 4-3 D-R with an R executive)

We lost Democratic commissioners in Cowlitz, Ferry, Grays Harbor, Island, Mason, Pend Oreille, Wahkiakum and Whitman this fall. No pick-ups to speak of.

[Meeker]

Something unexpected: the race in the 47th LD for State House, Pos. 1 went from not being in recount territory to being in hand recount territory with today's report. The Republican incumbent leads by 134 votes.

[Alcon]

Well, King is 99.9% reported, so not happening...but that would have been an unexpected bit of awesome.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but Mark Hargrove seems like such a dumb.

[Meeker]

Yes, that's the impression people have given me as well.

Down in Clark County, Benton leads by 82 votes today; Stonier by 135.

[Alcon]

Election results are being certified today.  I'll report results as I see them.

Yakima County - City of Wapato
Obama 670 (85.35%)
Romney 102 (12.99%)
Other 13 (1.66%)

Yakima County - Town of Mabton
Obama 266 (84.98%)
Romney 44 (14.06%)
Other 3 (0.96%)

Something tells me that Romney might have had some problems with the Mexican-American vote.

[Meeker]

^ lolz

Senate Democrats are out with something of a peace offering in regards to chamber control. Not clear to me if this a serious offer or just an effort to make one so they can say they tried.

- Tim Sheldon would become President Pro Tem, so he and Brad Owen would chair/vice chair the Rules Committee (both are from Mason County). The current President Pro Tem, Paull Shin, would become Vice President Pro Tem, a position which I don't think exists right now.

- Conservative Democrat Jim Hargrove of Hoquiam would chair the budget-writing Ways & Means Committee, a position being vacated by Ed Murray. The vice chair would be liberal Democrat Sharon Nelson of Vashon Island (the vice chair is in charge of the capital construction budget).

- Rodney Tom would get to keep his position as chair of the Higher Education, and it looks from a quick glance that all the other Democratic chairs stay the same as well (most notably Rosemary McAuliffe of Bothell would keep her chairmanship of the K-12 Education Committee. McAuliffe is perceived as a close ally of the WEA.)

- Meanwhile, a new "Select Committee on Education Finance and Results" would be co-chaired by David Frockt of Seattle and a Republican to-be-named. Since it's a select committee it wouldn't have any real power but would instead be more of a fact-finding task force.

- The Democrats would only have one more member than Republicans on all the committees, which is basically unheard of power for a minority party.

I guess this is better than Majority Leader Rodney Tom but... ugh.

[Alcon]

Thurston - College precinct - Final results

Obama 251 (82.3%)
Stein 31 (10.2%)
Romney 13 (4.3%)
Johnson 7
Anderson 3

Lol. Just imagine if they hadn't actually included the random subdivision in there.

Some close shaves for Romney versus Other elsewhere in Olympia:  Obama 235, Romney 26, Other 22 was the closest.

[Meeker]

Sheldon seems pleased with the PPT offering, but it's not clear yet whether a crisis has been averted: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/11/27/conservative-dems-snag-key-committee-posts-as-state-democratic-caucus-names-new-leaders

[Meeker]

Busy day in Washington politics. Seattle City Councilman Tim Burgess is running for mayor: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/11/27/its-official-tim-burgess-is-running-for-mayor

[Meeker]

...aaand for my third post in a row, certification is in from all the counties.

Turnout: 81.25%

President
Obama: 56.16%
Romney: 41.29%
Others: 2.55%

Governor
Inslee: 51.54%
McKenna: 48.46%

Senator
Cantwell: 60.45%
Baumgartner: 39.55%

R-74
Approve: 53.70%
Reject: 46.30%

I-502
Yes: 55.70%
No: 44.30%

Hand recount for LD 17 State Senator (Republican leads by 78 votes); machine recounts for LD 17 State Representative Pos. 1 (Democrat leads by 139 votes) and LD 47 State Representative Pos. 1 (Republican leads by 157 votes).

[Alcon]

These numbers exclude King County.

Top Obama
1. Nespelem - 92.00%
2. Wapato - 85.35%
3. Mabton - 84.98%
4. Langley - 81.18%
5. Port Townsend - 78.30%
6. Mattawa - 77.52%
7. Toppenish - 77.10%
8. Bainbridge Island - 74.76%
9. Index - 74.75%
10. Granger - 74.41%

Top Romney
1. Lamont - 84.38%
2. Hatton - 78.95%
3. LaCrosse - 77.90%
4. Waverly - 76.92%
5. Starbuck - 76.4%
6. Washtucna - 74.53%
7. Mansfield - 74.48%
8. St. John - 74.32%
9. Lynden - 73.74%
10. Davenport - 71.07%

R-74 Best Performances
1. Langley - 79.67%
2. Bainbridge Island - 79.32%
3. Port Townsend - 77.93%
4. Index - 71.88%
5. Bellingham - 70.88%
6. Olympia - 70.66%
7. La Conner - 69.91%
8. Friday Harbor - 67.34%
9. Pullman - 66.25%
10. Ruston - 64.08%

R-74 Worst Performances
1. Hatton - 15.79%
2. Starbuck - 20.00%
3. Lynden - 21.04%
4. Kahlotus - 21.33%
5. Malden - 21.51%
6. Coulee City - 22.45%
7. Washtucna - 23.36%
8. Warden - 24.62%
9. Mansfield - 25.35%
10. Reardan - 25.67%

[Ogre Mage]

The Washington Post profiles Patty Murray.  The general theme is that she is very influential in the Senate.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/patty-murray-will-be-key-voice-in-senate-on-budget-deal/2012/11/23/d02a5a02-300d-11e2-a30e-5ca76eeec857_story.html

[RI]

I put up some precinct maps from Snohomish County in my precinct map thread.

[Seattle]

I put up some precinct maps from Snohomish County in my precinct map thread.

Those are great! I'm surprised how well Obama did in Monroe. Did it vote for him?

Oh... as for Burgess running... ehh.

[Alcon]

I put up some precinct maps from Snohomish County in my precinct map thread.

Those are great! I'm surprised how well Obama did in Monroe. Did it vote for him?

Oh... as for Burgess running... ehh.

Yeah, Monroe was Obama 2,966; Romney 2,738; Other 128.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.