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Author Topic: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?  (Read 20853 times)
nclib
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« on: June 05, 2008, 05:54:01 pm »
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i.e. metro area - central city

Boston, San Francisco, NYC, DC, Philly...

can anyone think of others?
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2008, 05:56:26 pm »
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Decent chance of Denver
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2008, 05:58:19 pm »
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He'll carry most suburbs surrounding the Twin Cities, but he likely won't win the exurbs in the western and southwestern metro area.
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2008, 05:58:29 pm »
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That plus:

Seattle
Chicago
Baltimore
Portland, OR

I'm not willing to go past the 30 biggest Tongue
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2008, 06:00:20 pm »
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Detroit, maybe? Dunno how their suburban layout is, but Kerry either won or barely lost the surrounding counties. And assuming a somewhat uniform national swing towards Obama....
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2008, 06:12:28 pm »
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What constitutes the suburbs? Depending on the definitions, NYC, Philly, and LA could have suburbs voting for Obama. Here's my list of the top metro areas:

NYC: maybe
LA: no
Chicago: yes
Dallas: no
Philly: maybe
Houston: no
Miami: no
DC: yes
Atlanta: no
Boston: maybe
Detroit: yes
Bay Area: yes
Phoenix: no
Riverside (how is this an MSA larger than Seattle!?): no
Seattle: yes
Minneapolis: yes
San Diego: no
St. Louis: maybe
Tampa: no
Baltimore: yes
Denver: maybe
Pittsburgh: no
Portland: yes
Cincinnati: definitely not
Cleveland: no
Sacramento: no
Orlando: no
San Antonio: no
Kansas City: maybe??
Las Vegas: maybe??

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.


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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2008, 06:25:48 pm »
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Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2008, 06:27:58 pm »
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Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

That's my problem. The LA suburbs in the county should mostly vote for Obama, but OC won't. Also, San Diego city should vote for Obama, but most of the "city" is a suburb.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2008, 06:45:54 pm »
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Too Early To Tell. With a few exceptions. Obviously.
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« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2008, 07:06:55 pm »
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Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

That's my problem. The LA suburbs in the county should mostly vote for Obama, but OC won't. Also, San Diego city should vote for Obama, but most of the "city" is a suburb.

Yeah everyone lives in suburbs here..especially in southern california.
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nclib
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« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2008, 07:30:51 pm »
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Chicago

The home state bounce might be enough to push Obama over the top, but I think Bush carried every county in the Chicago metro other than Cook, though I'm not sure how the Cook County suburbs voted.
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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2008, 07:33:13 pm »
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Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

The San Fernando Valley is part of the city of LA. The number of GOP towns in LA county is getting shockingly thin (so many old GOP standbys of my relative  youth, like South Pasadena, Glendale, Arcadia, Whittier, Long Beach, the beach cities,  are gone, gone, gone, sob!), but if you define LA suburbs as including Orange County, and Riverside and San Bernadino Counties, then the GOP is in the hunt to carry it overall.
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2008, 07:39:00 pm »
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Chicago

The home state bounce might be enough to push Obama over the top, but I think Bush carried every county in the Chicago metro other than Cook, though I'm not sure how the Cook County suburbs voted.

Kerry won the Cook County suburbs:

Kerry 594,928 (58.9%)
Bush 407,867 (40.4%)
Other 6,942 (0.7%)

Bush's margin in the collar counties was only a little over 100,000, about half than what he needed, and less than he'll likely need in 2008.
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2008, 07:40:04 pm »
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Without an effective definition of what "suburbs" are for each of these places, this thread almost useless.  I mean, you can predict that Obama's not going to carry the Houston suburbs using any realistic measurement of that, but a lot of these depend on what they are.
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2008, 07:52:58 pm »
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Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

The San Fernando Valley is part of the city of LA. The number of GOP towns in LA county is getting shockingly thin (so many old GOP standbys of my relative  youth, like South Pasadena, Glendale, Arcadia, Whittier, Long Beach, the beach cities,  are gone, gone, gone, sob!), but if you define LA suburbs as including Orange County, and Riverside and San Bernadino Counties, then the GOP is in the hunt to carry it overall.

Well you guys will always have Santa Clarita. Smiley Perhaps you guys can convince more chinese to vote GOP. That is the key to win the san gabriel valley region of LA county, the only part of the county the GOP even has a chance in. The rest of the county is too hispanic. Now if they suddenly started voting like OC hispanics, you guys might be in business.
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2008, 07:56:03 pm »
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Chicago

The home state bounce might be enough to push Obama over the top, but I think Bush carried every county in the Chicago metro other than Cook, though I'm not sure how the Cook County suburbs voted.

Kerry won the Cook County suburbs:

Kerry 594,928 (58.9%)
Bush 407,867 (40.4%)
Other 6,942 (0.7%)

Bush's margin in the collar counties was only a little over 100,000, about half than what he needed, and less than he'll likely need in 2008.

The demise of the Republican in the Chicago suburbs over the past 15 years or so has just been shocking. If someone has predicted 15 years ago what in fact happened, I would have thought they were some Dem hack on crack.
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2008, 08:05:53 pm »
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Without an effective definition of what "suburbs" are for each of these places, this thread almost useless.

I clarified in the first post:

i.e. metro area - central city

Though I would imagine some metro areas would be a bit more complicated if the metro has two central cities (ex. Minneapolis/St.Paul) or those with overlapping areas (ex. WDC/Balt).

Minneapolis: yes

If St. Paul also qualifies as a center city, BRTD calculated a while back that the Twin Cities suburbs voted for Bush, or perhaps do you think that area would swing towards Obama?
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« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2008, 08:36:06 pm »
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The Philly 'burbs are questionable.
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J. J.

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« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2008, 08:36:33 pm »
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I'd rule out most suburbs in the northeast/great lakes.
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« Reply #19 on: June 05, 2008, 08:45:45 pm »
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He'll win the Bay Area ones, LA County LA suburbs.
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« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2008, 09:18:03 pm »
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He'll win the Bay Area ones, LA County LA suburbs.

Bush was slaughtered in both, so I think your opinion here is well, incontrovertible. Sad
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« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2008, 11:28:41 pm »
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Minneapolis: yes

If St. Paul also qualifies as a center city, BRTD calculated a while back that the Twin Cities suburbs voted for Bush, or perhaps do you think that area would swing towards Obama?

Yes, Bush won the Twin Cities metro area minus Minneapolis and St. Paul. Though it was close enough to swing if Obama has a major swing in Minnesota.
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« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2008, 11:56:01 pm »
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Sorry if I missed it, but I scanned quickly. Also, in WI which will be a swing state, Obama wins big in Milwaukee & Madison
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« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2008, 12:25:05 am »
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Sorry if I missed it, but I scanned quickly. Also, in WI which will be a swing state, Obama wins big in Milwaukee & Madison

Obama is NOT winning the Milwaukee suburbs. No chance.
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« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2008, 12:26:24 am »
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Sorry if I missed it, but I scanned quickly. Also, in WI which will be a swing state, Obama wins big in Milwaukee & Madison

Obama is NOT winning the Milwaukee suburbs. No chance.

Kerry didn't even win Milwaukee County outside of Milwaukee city.
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