Canada 2008: Official Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

Meh. I was secretly hoping for at least 43, same as 1988. And for Tories under the crucially all-important psychological number of 133.
Don't think I only got up - I spent the past 70 minutes on the CBC and CanadaVotes (and electionprediction) websites.

Care to tell me why no one's ever bothered to point out Welland to me?
Oh and to Saskatchewan and to Strathcona! I picked the right avatar.

[minionofmidas]

bq is in trouble in brome-missisquoi

Well spotted. A possible Liberal takeback in the Estrie; not something anyone had predicted, I think.

No, I think people were aware Brome-Missisquoi might be in danger. At least, I was. But I think the Bloc will hold it, barely.

I think it was sort of "Liberals won't take a seat in the Estrie back, but if they do it's this one".

[minionofmidas]

My god. When are boundaries redrawn?

I think before the next election. Think means hope. But there's been a new census.

Nope, no remap after censi ending in 6. You'll have to wait til after the 2011 Census.

[minionofmidas]

The Parliament would have to last its entire term (5 years that is, not 10 months. ), and the boundary commission take as long as last time (which was much less than the four times before that, law change maybe?) or shorter to complete its review, for new boundaries to be in effect for the next election. It's exceedingly unlikely.

[minionofmidas]

PR... using the same setup as  2006...

Newfieland
Liberal 4 (+1)
NDP 2 (+1)
CPC 1 (-2)

Nova Scotia
Liberal 4 (0)
NDP 3 (-1)
CPC 3 (0)
Greens 1 (+1)
...the obvious problem (as also wherever else an Independent does well) that the Wet Party would have gotten some scattered votes outside of CCMV under this system, which might have been enough to push him to victory (instead of a Liberal) - he wasn't that far off.

PEI
Liberal 2 (-1)
CPC 2 (+1)

New Brunswick
CPC 4 (0)
Liberal 4 (0)
NDP 2 (0)
...even though the CPC overtook the Liberals in the popular vote. I was worried about NB by the way. Damn. Why didn't I post that?* Meh. I'd have gotten the exact gains wrong anyhow.

Manitoba
CPC 7 (+1)
NDP 3 (-1)
Liberal 3 (-1)
Greenies 1 (+1)
...though the NDP overtook the Liberals.

Saskatchewan
CPC 8 (0)
NDP 4 (+1)
Liberal 2 (-1)

Territories
CPC 1 (0)
Liberal 1 (0)
NDP 1 (0)
CPC went from third to first. Surprised *how* badly Ittinuar did.




*Answer is: Because I gave up on my seat-by-seat prediction when I noticed that that would involve doing Québec, non-Northern Ontario, and Metro Vancouver, and didn't post what little I had.

Harper wants to add seats to BC, AB and ON, I dont know when they will do that, and if they would change borders in the other provinces or not at that time.

Maybe he just wants to change the law so that every Census is used? Because that would (I suppose. Haven't done the math, actually, just judging from past performance) add new seats to these three and leave the totals elsewhere unchanged. These three are proportional to each other and to a fictitious total number of seats (283 I think), everywhere else is overrepresented to varying legally guaranteed degrees.

[minionofmidas]

In Manitoba, I was correct with Churchill when they weren't. +1 for me.

Yeah, I was quite puzzled how they got that one wrong... nobrainer, it seemed to me, almost.

[minionofmidas]

Isle de Montréal
Lib 8 (+1)
Bloc 5 (-1)
Con 3 (0)
NDP 2 (+1)
Greens 0 (-1)

Really close between the 17th to 19th seats - 8th Lib, 3rd Con, 3rd NDP in that order. 19th seat would have been an NDP seat last time around as well. Green seat falls from 18th to 21st (although I suppose they would have rallied the votes to hold the seat if this system was used. Especially as they didn't stand against Dion as things are.)

Québec Nord-Est (ie Québec-Ville, Chicoutimi, 3 Rivières and as far west as Montcalm)
Bloc 8 (0)
CPC 5 (-1)
Liberal 3 (+1)
NDP 1 (0)
Arthur not even close. And adding him to the Torie pile (they didn't run against him after all) doesn't change anything either. Very close between the third Lib and a second Dipper though.

Québec Nord-Ouest (Laval and almost the entire leftbank suburbia, Outaouais, and MaxQué)
Bloc 6 (-2)
Liberal 4 (+1)
CPC 3 (0)
NDP 2 (+1)
Quite surprised how well the NDP did here, btw (I don't mean the Outaouais; that was obvious.) Then again, the showing in places like these (14.5 and second place in Rivière du Nord!) explains why the NDP didn't make any gains (nor come close, except for Gatineau) despite doing as well as predicted provincewide... I expected their vote gains to be more localized. My bad, perhaps. *recalls 2004 election*

Québec Sud-Est (as far as Sherbrooke basically)
Bloc 5 (-1)
CPC 5 (0)
Liberal 2 (0)
NDP 1 (+1)
Interesting pattern btw... the Tories seem to have piled up where they won in 2006, receded elsewhere.

Québec Sud-Ouest
Bloc 6 (0)
Liberal 3 (+1)
CPC 2 (-1)
NDP 1 (0)
NDP barely loses out in three out of five Québec constituencies... this might make me depressed if it were real life.

[minionofmidas]

Edmonton
CPC 5 (0)
NDP 2 (+1)
Liberal 1 (-1)
Gets to be (just barely) 6-1-1 if you add the iCPC vote to the CPC total.

Calgary
CPC 6 (0)
Liberal 1 (0)
Greens 1 (+1)
NDP 0 (-1)
Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.) Yeah well, they came within a percentage point of repeating that at a national level (15.04% in Ed, 14.23% in Cal). Meanwhile the NDP is more than twice in strong in Edmonton (19.36% vs 9.23%.) And the Greens are stronger in Calgary (10.95% vs 7.19%). At least the Tories are still much stronger in Calgary, so sanity's prevailing, really: 63.50% vs 54.13%.

Rural Alberta
CPC 10 (0)
NDP 1 (0)
Greens 1 (+1)
Liberals 0 (-1)
For full disclosure: CPC 73.73%, NDP 10.47%, Greens 8.26%, Liberals 6.47%. Lol. NDP now ahead of the Liberals in every rural Albertan riding.

[minionofmidas]

BC Interior - Fraser Valley
CPC 8 (+1)
NDP 3 (0)
Liberal 1 (-2)
Greens 1 (+1)
Came damn close to third place here, too. Liberal vote must have downright collapsed in places.

Vancouver Island
CPC 3 (+1)
NDP 2 (-1)
Lib 1 (0)
NDP would be stronger, but not in first place, if it wasn't for Julian West. Then again the Liberal vote is probably squeezed about as low as it can go in the three northern ridings. Probably cancels out, at least very approximately.

Metro Vancouver
CPC 7 (+1)
Liberal 5 (-1)
NDP 4 (-1)
Greens 1 (+1)
...obvious tactical voting gone nucular caveat...

Ontario some other time.

[minionofmidas]

Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.)

That's because Stelmach's an idiot who is unpopular in Calgary, not because Calgary necessarily favours the Liberals, but rather because they disfavour the Tory Premier.

And mostly because there's also an NDP in Edmonton.

[minionofmidas]

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Trying to piece this thing together... I suppose Beaches - East York is in Inner Toronto. (So are the Don Valley seats and Eglinton-Lawrence, but not York South-Weston.) York - Simcoe must be in what Earl tells me should be called York - Durham (the xy-Oshawa thingy) - ep now lists it as a fourth Simcoe constituency, and with reason when I look at the outline, but, well, strict comparability compels. It could have been York S - Weston in Inner Toronto instead, of course. Only one way to find out - recalculate 2006 figures and see if it makes a difference. Except that it doesn't. I used Beaches in Inner for the 2008 calculations.
The SWern split must have Cambridge, Oxford, Lambton in the London-Windsor constituency, anywhere north of that in Simcoe - Kitchener. Oh, and Dufferin - Caledon is still listed as a 905 constituency on electionprediction, and seems to belong in Mississauga etc.

Cough. Ahem.

Inner Toronto
Lib 5 (0)
NDP 2 (-1)
Con 2 (0)
Green 1 (+1)
As a side benefit of having to calculate the 2006 distribution, I can tell you that the Liberals lost about 40,000 voters - 1 in 6 - compared to 2006 and the NDP almost 30,000 - 1 in 5. The Tory vote total was down by a thousand, about 1%. Didn't calculate how much the Green vote is up, although up it certainly is. So much for lowered turnout.

Scarborough - York - Etobicoke
Lib 7 (-1)
Con 4 (+1)
NDP 2 (0)

York - Durham (christ, this double usage of place names without cardinal points attached still gets on my tits. It's the Canadian thing to do I guess, though.)
Con 5 (+1)
Lib 4 (-2)
NDP 1 (0)
Green 1 (+1)
Swung a fair bit, this area. Green gain is pretty tight against either a 6th Con or 5th Lib.

Mississauga - Brampton (shouldn't this be Peel - Halton? Or at least Mississauga - Brampton - Halton?)
Con 5 (0)
Lib 5 (-1)
NDP 1 (0)
Green 1 (+1)
Close against 6th Tory. Tories outpolled Grits by 12,000 votes here, but won 5 seats to Liberals' 7.

Hamilton - Niagara
Con 4 (+1)
NDP 2 (0)
Lib 2 (-1)
Tightest of margins (under 300 votes) against 3-3-2.

London - Windsor
Con 6 (0)
Lib 4 (-1)
NDP 3 (0)
Green 1 (+1)
irl it's 10-1-3... Lib vote is just too spread out.

Simcoe - Kitchener - Huron
Con 6 (+1)
Lib 3 (-1)
NDP 1 (-1)
Green 1 (+1)
I think Greens were pretty close here even last time around (it includes both Guelph and BGOS...)

Northern Ontario
NDP 4 (+1)
Con 3 (0)
Lib 3 (-1)

Eastern Ontario
Con 9 (+2)
Lib 5 (-1)
NDP 2 (-1)
Green 1 (0)

[minionofmidas]

Btw, didn't the Liberals do better in Calgary than in Edmonton at the last provincial election (in seats only I think. Or was it in votes only? Whatever.)

That's because Stelmach's an idiot who is unpopular in Calgary, not because Calgary necessarily favours the Liberals, but rather because they disfavour the Tory Premier.

And mostly because there's also an NDP in Edmonton.

Well, apparently there's a Green Party in Calgary. Calgary Centre and Calgary Centre-North were two of the best Green ridings in the country.

There is a Green Party everywhere in Alberta. Although it is stronger in Calgary than in Edmonton... but that may be partly due to the lack of any sliver of reason to tactically vote for somebody else.

[minionofmidas]

Ta-daa. Canada.

CPC 127 (+7)
Liberal 87 (-12)
NDP 52 (-1)
Bloc 30 (-4)
Greens 12 (+10)

[minionofmidas]

Any thoughts on how IRV would play out?
Say, use a few select seats you know well   (and that are interesting, no 47%+ on first round results please)

[minionofmidas]

Any thoughts on how IRV would play out?
Say, use a few select seats you know well   (and that are interesting, no 47%+ on first round results please)

I can use poll data for second preferences.

As a starting point, or for a rough estimate of national totals. To get it "right" obviously requires taking the candidates, the local campaign, the type of people who vote for party x in riding z, into account.
Which makes it hard work... :/

[minionofmidas]

There's also a consensus that the party should move toward the centre and away from the centre left where Dion took it (sorry Earl)

...uh... Suicide Squad?

The path (even further) towards the centre is the path towards where oblivion becomes, not a certainty (the party has survived for too long for that), but at least an option. Just ask Paul Martin. Just ask Palmer.
A Liberal majority requires keeping the NDP down. That requires a leftist course (and a charismatic leader).


EDIT: Turner. Not Palmer. How embarassing.

Meh. Damn bland random surnames.

[minionofmidas]

The Liberals didn't lose this election because they weren't leftist enough. They lost way more seats to the Tories than to the NDP and, Northern Ontario notwithstanding, they lost (or failed to win back) in places where centrist voters were the deciding factor.

Liberals bleed support to the NDP (and Greens, now) not because of a sudden leftist reawakening among Canadians, but because they're weak overall: poor leadership, scandal, fatigue, bad economic stewardship (in the 70s and 80s, less so now). Voters get tired of the complacency that characterizes long stretches of Liberal tenure, so they move their vote elsewhere.

The two issues are related. Dead Centrist leadership is no leadership, almost by definition. Not of course sayin' a hard-left university Marxist would do better...

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Check the national fi'ures (missin' letter seems not to work...) since the Bloc appeared... (for what they're worth)

PC/Reform/CA/CPC
93 34.7
97 38.2
00 37.7
04 29.6
06 36.3
08 37.6

Lib/NDP/Greens (from 04 - irrelevant before)
93 48.1
97 50.0
00 49.4
04 56.7
06 51.1
08 51.2

How credibly, exactly, are the Conservatives appealin to the Centrist voter?

04 is the one outlier... when based on seats you mite have thouht it rite in the middle.

[minionofmidas]

Please don't put us with the Liberals, again please.

Lol, I'm NOT saying you should merge or anything (nor am I saying that all NDP voters would vote Liberal over Conservative, or even a new Liberal-NDP merger over Conservative. Nor vice-versa for the Liberals). I'm just saying the Liberals have more to gain from squeezing the NDP vote than from winning over some more relatively centrist conservatives.

[minionofmidas]

CAPE BRETON SOUTH (1962/06/18)
Candidate    Party    Occupation    Votes    Elected
MACINNIS, Malcolm Vic    N.D.P.    adult educator     17,409     
MACINNIS, Donald    P.C.    mine worker     13,602     
MACINNIS, Earl V.    Lib    salesman     7,774     

Had to share that. Hilarious.

[minionofmidas]

There should be a mini territories insert somewhere on Al's map.

[minionofmidas]

Tories need about a 2.odd uniform swing from the Liberals for a majority. Liberals would need an almost 7.0 uniform swing to be largest party (although they'd outpoll the Tories by 2.5% on a 7 point swing, they'd have just one seat more).

Tory gains on a three-point swing from Liberals:

Malpeque (PEI), Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe (NB), Guelph, Mississauga S, Brampton W, Brampton Springdale, Don Valley W, York C, Eglinton - Lawrence (Onto), Winnipeg SC (Man), Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca, Newton - N Delta, Vancouver S (BC) from the Liberals plus Welland, Sault Ste Marie (Onto), Burnaby - Douglas and New Westminster - Coquitlam (BC) from the NDP. In addition, such a swing would make the Liberals lose Papineau (and Brossard - La Prairie actually, but I used election night figures for consistency's sake) to the Bloc.

Liberal gains on a seven-point swing from Tories:

West Nova (NSc), Egmont (PEI), Miramichi, Fredericton, St John (NB), Ottawa W, Ottawa - Orléans, Glengarry - Prescott - Russell, Huron - Bruce, Essex, Haldimand - Norfolk, London W, Brant, Kitchener C, Kitchener - Waterloo, Oakville, Halton, Mississauga Erindale, Thornhill, Oak Ridges, Newmarket - Aurora, Kenora (Onto), St Boniface (Man), Nunavut (Nunavut), Saanich - Gulf Islands, N Vancouver (BC) directly, Haute Gaspésie etc, Gatineau, Brossard - La Prairie (see above), Brôme - Missisquoi, Ahuntsic, Jeanne Le Ber (Qué) Liberal gains from the Bloc, Outremont (Qué), Welland, Trinity - Spadina, Sudbury (Onto) from the NDP, South Shore - St Margaret's (NSc), Oshawa (Onto), Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar (Sas), Vancouver Island N, Surrey N (BC) Tory losses to the NDP, Edmonton Sherwood Park to an Independent, for a combined total of
112 Liberals
111 Tories
44 Bequistes
38 Dippers
3 Independents