"Grading" my county prediction maps.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Yep, that's what this is for. I'll post a new map of every state, with the counties I called wrong blanked out. I'd like to get actual numbers on how well I did.

Two comments beforehand from what I've seen:

1-The general rule of Republican rural areas being less partisan than Republican urban/suburban areas didn't apply this time for the most part. Though granted the set of issues and the local Democratic candidates for state offices probably had a lot to do with this.
2-There's no question as to who is more racist: Southern rednecks or Rust Belt industrial workers. Or at least less willing to put their economic interests ahead of their racism.

Anyway, coming up...

[Ronnie]

I think you should wait a bit before you do this.  There are some remaining precincts that could tip counties from one candidate to the other.

[Beef]

All I have to say is: you are wise to listen to me regarding counties in which I have resided .

[So the Heroes Fall]

I think you should wait a bit before you do this.  There are some remaining precincts that could tip counties from one candidate to the other.

Which I will. Once Dave has all the official results up.

[Beef]

Don't feel bad about missing Waupaca, Waushara, and Calumet, WI (assuming you picked McCain).  I'm still finding it difficult to believe those.

Obama crushed in NE Wisconsin in a way I never anticipated.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Don't feel bad about missing Waupaca, Waushara, and Calumet, WI (assuming you picked McCain).  I'm still finding it difficult to believe those.

Obama crushed in NE Wisconsin in a way I never anticipated.

Here's what I care about:

-81/88 counties in Minnesota called correctly (though I narrowly missed the margins in too many.)
-No one getting over 50% in ALL 7 of the missed ones.

[So the Heroes Fall]

OK, I can do the ones now that at least don't have obvious glaring errors in them (like Van Zandt, TX):



Some counties swung weird and tough to predict. Jefferson was a big oversight on my part, I forgot that the rural whites who voted for Clinton weren't going to vote for any black and thus Clinton's failure to overcome the white suburbanites was moot if blacks were all that was needed. Pretty good overall though, though I did overestimate the black boost in some places.

Note: Macon was actually weaker for Obama than Shannon, SD and the Bronx. The white Blue Dog population must've abandoned Obama (surprise, surprise.)

[So the Heroes Fall]

I predicted an identical map to 2004, almost happened. The county that dropped wasn't the one I expected though.

Obama would've almost certainly have won Maricopa against a non-Arizonan.

[Stranger in a strange land]

2-There's no question as to who is more racist: Southern rednecks or Rust Belt industrial workers. Or at least less willing to put their economic interests ahead of their racism.

yeah, I'll admit I was kind of (pleasantly) surprised by that. Obama did about as well in Pennsylvania and Ohio as a white candidate with similar views would have, though admittedly some white racists were cancelled out by increased turnout among blacks and youth.

[NOVA Green]

A+ in Oregon.

You got 35/36 correct in Oregon, the only exception being Marion county.

I think that the city of Salem is becoming increasingly progressive, and that combined with a large Latino population was enough for a narrow Obama win.

There were three counties that McCain won by only a few hundred votes, including key fast-growing areas around Bend and Medford (Jackson, Polk, and Deschutes counties), but you correctly predicted a McCain win.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Looks like old "Zack the Barak Hack" underestimate the swing to Obama. By a lot.

[??????????]

Put your Florida map back up, lol.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Put your Florida map back up, lol.

BRTD:


life:

[Senator MaxQue]

That was very good, BRTD.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I just made my most common mistake, underestimating the swing of southern racists against Obama. And greatly underestimated it in northern Florida as a result. Though I also underestimated the swing to him in Alachua.

My theory about Florida (That moderate Republicans in central Florida were jumping ship over the economic crisis) largely turned out to be correct it seems.

[??????????]

That was NOT his original county prediction for Florida. He had Obama sweeping the west coast.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I said they were subject to change.

[??????????]

I lost track of the thread, I see where you revised it. So ok, good job.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Figured I'd do the state I care about the most:



Damn >40% counties messing so much up. I called the winner right and the general margin at least close in most. Lake and Cook are just heart-breaking (go check out how much Obama got in both.)

[So the Heroes Fall]

OK, I deserve some accolades on this one. I called every county except Cass and Traill. Obama's urban appeal here is quite obvious, and that's one thing I greatly underestimated. Another was the swing to him in some of the rural counties, even if he didn't flip them.