Ireland 2009

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Irish Elections in 2009

5 June: Local Elections
5 June: European Elections
TBD: Dáil By-Elections in Dublin South and Dublin Central
October: 2nd Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty

Though the current Dáil can run until 2012, there is a not unreasonable possibility of a general election this year. It's also possible that other referenda could arise (probably at the same time as the Lisbon Treaty) - most probably one regarding 'children's rights', particularly relating to the laws on statutory rape.

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Avril Doyle MEP (FG/EPP-East) will not be defending her European seat. Doyle is coming to the end of her 2nd term in the European Parliament and is the current leader of the FG delegation there. Initial indications are that she may be calling a halt to her political career. (Though she strikes me as a possible FG Presidential candidate for 2011).
- The Irish Times

In 2004, FG won 2 of the 3 seats in the East constituency. This time out it looks like 1 FF, 1 FG with the final seat now probably a contest between FG and Labour.

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What's the latest news on the Referendum ? Any polls ?

I'm not aware of any polls since last November. It's not been getting much attention in the last few weeks, but I'd imagine we'll probably have some more polling before too long. It's too early too say much for certain on it though.

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Who gets to decide when the special election to replace the late Independent TD Tony Gregory is held?  The Taoiseach?  I know the party of a late or resigned TD gets to decide when to call a by-election and (at least roughly) when the election is held, but I don't know who in the party gets to make that decision.  Does Taoiseach Brain Cohen have the descretion over the timing of by-elections to fill both vacancies, through his position as leader of the party of late Fianna Fáil TD Séamus Brennan and though his position as Taoiseach in the case of Tony Gregory?  Could he (or whomever gets to make the decision) keep the seat vacant for the rest of the 30th Dáil if he wants).

For a by-election to come about, the Dáil must pass a resolution directing that a writ be issued to the returning officer of the relevant constituency to hold an election to fill the vacancy. There is no time limit for the passing of the resolution by the Dáil. In effect therefore the Government should be able to control the timing of by-elections and can effectively prevent their occurance.

You’re quite right that, by custom, the former member's own party will move the writ (but not normally until at least a month has passed). It would be quite unusual (though not unprecedented) for a party to be refused a by-election for one of ‘their’ seats.

We’ve only had one by-election in the last 50 years to replace an Independent TD – Wicklow 1995, when Mildred Fox was elected to replace her father, Johnny. On that occasion the then Taoiseach (John Bruton, FG) moved the writ.

The previous occasion when an Independent seat was vacated was that of Kieran Doherty, the imprisoned IRA hunger striker who died a few weeks after being elected in the 1981 General Election as a TD for Cavan-Monaghan. Twice opposition FF deputies moved writs of by-elections, both of which were narrowly defeated by the Dáil votes when the Government opposed the motions.

Is a by-election is likely in either constituency?  When will one likely be held in either constituency (Séamus Brennan's constituency Dublin South and Tony Gregory's constituency Dublin Central)?

Short of a general election occurring (improbable, IMO, but far from impossible) I’d be very surprised if these by-elections weren’t brought about this year. It was thought by some that regarding Dublin South, Fianna Fáil were likely to try and go for the autumn. They’ve been trying to get Séamus Brennan’s son, Shay Brennan, to run (something that is apparently increasingly likely).

Traditionally when multiple vacancies arise the by-elections are held on the same day. The delay in the calling of the Dublin South by-election has already raised qualms amongst the opposition and I suspect that they will seek to have the elections held in the first half of the year and indeed may move the writ on Dublin Central in themselves to try and force this. 5 June (the date for the local and European elections) seems like a not unreasonable bet to me.

What are people's predictions regarding the by-elections if they are held?  I remember reading on this site that Fianna Fáil was expected to hold Brennan's seat in Dublin South, but I haven't read speculation on the possible Dublin Central by-election or checked out the 2007 results.

Dublin South
Fianna Fáil got 41% in Dublin South in the General. Their junior partners did fairly well there. Séamus Brennan was a long-standing, well respected TD and there’s no doubt that a significant element of the electorate would be sympathetic to sending his son to replace him.

However, a Government party has not won a by-election since 1982, a streak of 18 losses now. Fianna Fáil is currently at an all-time low in polling. They’re coming off a major referendum defeat, the loss of a personally popular Dublin based Taoiseach to financial scandal and the unmitigated death, decapitation and destruction of the Celtic Tiger. I think their chances are slim. On paper this looks to me to be a Fine Gael pick-up with Labour not to be ruled out. I’d also keep an eye on what independents step forward.


Dublin Central (2007 General Election Result)

Another constituency where a reasonable number of pros for FF. Bertie Ahern’s home constituency - his electoral machine (and it’s very definitely his machine, not Fianna Fáil’s) is a huge asset. If a Bertie-ite is chosen as the FF nominee then they certainly can’t be ruled out. However, the likely favoured FF candidate is Mary Fitzpatrick – not a Bertie-ite by any means, indeed someone who begrudges what she felt was Bertie’s cold shoulder in the last General Election.

On paper, this seems to me to be a potential Labour gain, but getting a good, party-uniting candidate may not be easy. There is word of an Independent Gregory-ite candidate being put forward who would have a good basis for a run, but it’s too early to speculate too much on this. Fine Gael can’t necessarily be dismissed either.

We’ll have to wait and see on this one.

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Labour already have one seat here (Costello) - would they really go for another?

Almost certainly. It'd be remarkable if an organised political party with a realistic shot at a seat didn't contest it. They may have difficulty finding the right candidate but I'd bet my bottom dollar on there being a Labour candidate on the ballot. The only way I'd see this not happening is if they were to support some Gregory-ite candidate, but I think that's quite unlikely.

In a GE, the chances of retaining both are very slim even in good circumstances for Labour and then there are vote splitting and transfer problems.

Certainly, the chances aren't fantastic of retaining 2. However, presumably with no Bertie to run (and so presumably a less effective Drumcondra Mafia) and no Gregory, the prospects increase markedly. Without Bertie, even at the best of times, I couldn't see FF taking 2 here and these are of course not the best of times.

The hypothetical Labour incumbent will have had a number of years to try and establish their own base and given a very fractured leftist vote in the constituency, couldn't be ruled out in a General Election. Plus at the very least, their chances of retaining 1 increase - while Deputy Costello may not be enamoured with the idea, the Labour Party should definitely be contesting the seat.

Unless someone associated with Gregory runs (who?), I'd go with FG gain here for now.

There's a couple of possibilities from the Gregory camp. Mick Rafferty, who took his seat on the City Council in 2004 and has been part of Gregory's campaign team for some time, is a possibility. It's much too early to say though.

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The Sunday Independent lack all credibility.
I never post their 'polling' on anything.

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Following Labour deciding to move the writ for a by-election in Dublin South, the matter has been approved by the Dáil. It will be held on the same day as the Euopean and Local elections, 5 June.

- The Irish Times

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Following Labour deciding to move the writ for a by-election in Dublin South, the matter has been approved by the Dáil. It will be held on the same day as the Euopean and Local elections, 5 June.

- The Irish Times

So when do you (Jas, and also Gully Foyle - I mean The Man Machine) now think the Dublin Central by-election will be held?  As Finian McGrath was an anti-Government Independent the Government might not have the credibility to delay the calling of that election like they did in Dublin South.  Perhaps Fianna Fáil is concerned that if Fine Gael or Labour or a Gregorite independent win both by-elections (as seems likely), expelled (caucus-wise) Fianna Fáil TD Jim McDaid will come out against the government, the Greens will withdraw from the government, ex-Fine Gael TD Michael Lowry will come on board and the non-Sinn Féin opposition (the current Fine Gael (51), Labour (20) and Green (6) TDs, the two TDs elected in the special elections, McDaid, Lowry, Joe Behan (who resigned from Fianna Fáil on 17 October), Finian McGrath (who withdrew his support from the Government on 20 October according to ElectionsIreland.org)) will have 83 TDs, enough to form a government of their own unless John O'Donoghue resigns as Ceann Comhairle which would put a sure second seat in Kerry South for Fianna Fáil in serious jeopardy.  How cozy are the Greens in government now, by the way?

I'd say it's now all but certain that the Dublin Central by-election will also be held on 5 June.
Both seats will almost certainly fall to the opposition - but the Government should still be able to stand it's ground.

Fianna Fáil, the Greens and the ex-PDs together make 83 (which is just enough anyway) and they still retain the outright support of 2 Independents (Lowry and Healy-Rae). Question marks will always hang over just how much Lowry is willing to stand by the Government - but he hasn't wavered so far, despite the abandonment of the Government by other independents and fully-fledged FF TDs.

Neither McDaid nor Behan are necessarily reliable opposition votes. Indeed, I'd suggest that when push comes to shove, they (McDaid, in particular) may be more likely to support than oppose the Government at critical moments.

The Green leadership has so far shown no indication of a willingness to jump ship. They've had considerable issues with that section of the grassroots which were not comfortable entering coalition with FF in the first place - however the parliamentary party remains seemingly resolute. The June election results may be significant.

It's hard to envisage a scenario whereby we have a change of Government without a General Election. I don't see any way the opposition gather a stable coalition of 83+ votes; nor am I inclined to believe that Fine Gael are prepared at this time to enter a government supported by Sinn Féin.

A General Election is though far from inconceivable. Dire economic news continues to come forth on a daily basis. The Government yesterday announced spending cuts of around €2 billion, mostly through pay cuts for public servants - following the breakdown of social partnership, thus hugely increasing the potential for significant industrial action. The Government also intends to recapitalise Irish banks to the cost of €8 billion. New unemployment figures yesterday show that it continues to break records in it's rapid rise - with high profile job losses announced now with regularity. Ireland's credit rating is expected to take a hit in the coming days also undermining international confidence. etc,. etc. ad nauseum.

The Government lost 3 TDs in the first wave of this crisis, but with further spending cuts of €4 billion apparantly required for the next budget and further billions to be found for the coming few years - sooner or later they will be testing the patience and resolve of everyone.

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By the way, when did this happen?

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32786/fine_gael_holds_on_to_lead_in_ireland/

Fine Gael: 33 (-2 on Nov 2008)
Fianna Fail: 28 (-2)
Labour: 14 (nc)
Sinn Fein: 9 (+1)
Green: 8 (+3)

The poll was published on 1 February in the Sunday Business Post, research by RedC.

Some may also be interested in their numbers on the Lisbon Treaty which were 58-28-14.

I'm not sure how much credibility I attach to either set of numbers though.

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I meant a more general question about when it happened that Fianna Fail's fortunes went so far south. Clearly it's not an immediately recent development since the November poll also had them 5 points behind Fine Gael. I suppose it's probably economic crisis-related.

The last poll that had Fianna Fáil above 30% was on 21 October when they led Fine Gael 36-28.
Last week's poll makes 3 in a row in which they're trailing FG:
14 Nov (TNS-MRBI) 26-33
23 Nov (RedC) 30-35
1 Feb (RedC) 28-33

You're quite right that the economy is the major reason for the shift. As I noted before, these numbers are historic lows for FF. Since then the economy has only gotten worse. Only last week, the Taoiseach, after ending social partnership and making significant public service wage cuts, has said we should expect a 10-12% fall in our standard of living; as well as advising that unemployment is likely to easily surpass 10% this year. Since the budget, protests, such as third-level students (below), have been increasingly common - and with the Government needing to billions in expenditure year-on-year for at least 4 more years...




On a somewhat unrelated point, it seems to me that our economic woe also the reason why the numbers in favour of the Lisbon Treaty continue to rise - the idea that because we have been saved an even worse downturn because we are in the eurozone seems has gotten quite a bit of play and would seem at this point to have been adopted as conventional wisdom.

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TNSmrbi Poll for tomorrow's Irish Times:

TNS were the most accurate pollsters in the last election.
The below numbers include data from the new poll; the previous TNS poll in November; and the General Election.

	TNSmrbi	TNSmrbi	Election
	Feb 09	Nov 08	May 07
Fianna Fáil	22%	27%	42%
Fine Gael	32%	34%	28%
Labour	24%	14%	10%
Sinn Féin	8%	7%	7%
Greens	4%	4%	5%
Indies/Others	9%	13%	8%

Labour outpoll Fianna Fáil for the first time ever, on the back of a 10 point surge, as FF plumb new depths leading a terribly unpopular Government (see below). And yet still (and thankfully) the pollsters continue to find that the public have no great appetite for Enda Kenny's Fine Gael.

The poll puts FF at almost half the support they had at the General Election; and Labour at almost 2¹/₂ times their support then.


Satisfaction with the Government?
14-82

Prefer a change of Government?
62-28


More data should be available tomorrow and Saturday, presumably to include new Lisbon numbers.

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More numbers from the TNS poll.

Leadership Satisfaction Ratings
Brian Cowen (FF) 24-69 (Satisfieds: -2)
Enda Kenny (FG) 30-52 (Satisfieds: -3)
Eamon Gilmore (Lab) 44-32 (Satisfieds: +6)
John Gormley (Grn) 29-47 (Satisfieds: +1)
Gerry Adams (SF) 32-40 (Satisfieds: -1)

Only Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has a net positive satisfaction rating, and is at his highest satisfaction rating ever.
Cowen and Adams are now at their lowest satisfaction ratings ever; Kenny is at his lowest since 2003.


Fianna Fáil Supporters
Satisfaction with the Taoiseach? 56-39
Support the Government? 40-55

Green Party Supporters
Satisfaction with the Taoiseach? 18-79
Prefer Change of Government? 61-29
Support the Government? *-85

*unpublished

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Why aren't the Greens going to collapse the goverment? (In saying that, elections are three years away, but which this opportunity will be wasted, however given the order of things right now I can't imagine anyone wanting to run this country. The meeja alone are bad enough, see the thread I posted in Individual politics.)

They need a reason they can sell, to the media and the electorate, to walk out on. So far, they've been unflinching. They've sat through the public sector pay cut and the bank recapitalisation without a hint of real dissatisfaction. I don't see what would shift them at the moment.

Either way as I said on the other thread on the other board, THIRD PLACE! THIRD PLACE!

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Carlow-Kilkenny: 2FF 2FG 1LAB

Disagree
1FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
That's with Mary White (Grn) defending the last seat in a tight race with both FF and Lab.

So FG and Lab gains from FF.

Cavan-Monaghan: 1FF 3FG 1SF (Though if SF run a second candidate, they might beat FG for the final seat)

1FF, 2FG, 1SF, and ... not sure. Depends very much on who stands. Would FG run 3 candidates? Would SF run 2? Would Labour run a credible candidate? Would Connolly run again or some other reasonable Independent?
I think on these numbers FF are only probable to win a second if the answer to all of the above is no. Odds are that one of the above answes though is yes, so I'll put it down as 1 Ind as a sort of default.

So FG and IND gains from FF.

Clare: 2FF 2FG (even if that Poll still difficult to see how any result can very different without Inds)

One of the amazing results of 1992 - Ireland's first Muslim TD, the unknown and unexpected Dr. Bhamjee elected on the Spring Tide.

I'd predict a repeat:
1FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab

Lab gain from FF

Cork East: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Agree
Though Labour would be in strong contention for a second seat.

FG gain from FF

Cork North Central: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Agree
I'd again think that Labour could strongly contend for a 2nd here on these numbers though.

FG gain from FF

Cork North West: 1FF 2FG

Agree - once more Labour in contention for the final seat against FG though.
Possible Cabinet seat lost here for Minister for Education Batt O'Keefe.

FG gain from FF

Cork South Central: 1FF 3FG 1LAB

1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab and again...unsure for the final seat.
I can't see a 3 FG seat here. FF would have a shot at defending their 2nd seat. I wouldn't even dismiss the Greens to retake it. Cork SC is an odd place - Pat Cox won here, Kathy Sinnott lost by 6 votes or so. Can't rule out a random Independent. A good 2nd Labour candidate could also steal it.

For want of filling it in I think FF defending th 2nd seat is what I'll punt for.

No change.

Cork South West: 1FF 2FG

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
(Though I could have agreed with your prediction also - or even 2 FG, 1 Lab.)

Lab gain from FG

Donegal North East: 1FF 1FG 1SF

Agree

SF gain from FF

Donegal South West: 1FF 1FG 1SF

Agree

SF gain from FF

Dublin Central (still has to be by-election here): 1FF 1FG 2LAB (The Dublin ones are probably the least predictable... alot would depend on where Bertie's personal vote would go and there is always SF)

1 FF, 2 Lab, 1 SF
Incredibly diffficult to predict what happens in Dublin Central without Ahern and Gregory. The absence of predicting a FG seat here is either genius or insane and nothing in between.

Lab and SF gains from FF and Ind

Dublin Mid West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF (very tricky, this is the sort of suburban area which should see massive swings against FF)

Agree

SF gain from Grn

Dublin North: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
Greens to just about hold off a Socialist gain here.

Lab gain from FF

Dublin North Central: 1FF 1FG 1IND (If Finian McGrath doesn't run, then either FG/LAB gain (might be so anyway), I'm hoping Richard Bruton might become leader of FG by then, so if so FG gain)

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab

Lab gain from Ind

Dublin North East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF

SF gain from FF

Dublin North West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 SF

SF gain from FF

Dublin South (By election soon): 1FF 2FG 2LAB

1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
With Labour pushing hard for the Green seat as well.

Lab gain from FF

Dublin South Central: 1FF 1FG 2LAB 1SF

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Dublin South East: 0FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Grn
One of the most difficult constituencies so far. Where does the McDowell vote go? I suspect enough of it gets to FF to help them over the line. Gormley obviously not safe - but it really depends on the 2nd candidates of FG and Lab.

No change.

Dublin South West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Agree
Though a 2nd Lab candidate would give SF a run for their money.

SF gain from FF

Dublin West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC

Agree
Though the Minister for Finance might well sweat it out.

Soc gain new seat

Dun Laoghaire: 1FF 1FG 2LAB

1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 PBP

People Before Profit to gain one in a difficult one to forecast.

PBP gain from FF and Grn.

Galway East: 1FF 3FG

1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Assuming Labour can find a non-joke candidate.

Lab gain from FF

Galway West: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (a bit ambitious this one...)

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab

Greakish to hold his ex-PD seat under the FF banner. FG to pick up a former FF seat, but would technically be a gain from PD.

FG gain from PD

Kerry North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Kerry South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

2 FF, 1 Lab

Given the Ceann Comhairle's automatic re-election, only 2 seats actually up for grabs. Healy-Rae won't run again, and FF is the natural home of these votes. There should be enough for FF to take one of the two elected seats. The other should be close between FG and Lab, but on these numbers Lab should get it.

Lab and FF gain from FG and Ind

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Kildare North: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab

Lab gain from FF

Kildare South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Agree

FG gain from FF

Laois-Offaly: 2FF 3FG (lol)

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Another one where a non-joke Lab candidate would be needed - otherwise it would probably be 3 FG.

Lab gain from FF

Limerick: 1FF 2FG

Agree

FG gain from FF

Limerick City: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Agree

FF seat lost

Longford-Westmeath: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Agree

FG gain from FF

Louth: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1SF

Agree

Lab and FG gain from FF and new seat

Mayo: 2FF 3FG (could 1-4 if Enda still leader)

Agree

Technically FF gain from Ind, but no real change.

Meath East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Meath West: 1FF 2FG

Agree

FG gain from FF

Roscommon-Sleitrim: 1FF 2FG

Agree

FG gain from FF

Sligo-Nleitrim: 1FF 2FG

Agree

FG gain from FF

Tipperary North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND

Agree
But I've no idea what will actually happen to Lowry's vote.

Lab gain from FF

Tipperary South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Agree

Lab gain from FF

Waterford: 1FF 1FG 2LAB

1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Close between FG/Lab for seat #4

FG gain from FF

Wexford: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (maybe could be 1-3-1)

2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
Possible FG gain from FF. I don't see Lab running 2 here.

No change

Wicklow: 1FF 2FG 2LAB

Agree

Lab gain from FF

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Our predictions collated:

	Jas	Gully
Fine Gael	63	72
Fianna Fáil	46	44
Labour	38	37
Sinn Féin	11	8
Greens	4	1
Socialist	1	2
People Before Profit	1	0
Independents	2	2

...which surprises me as to just how substantial I have the FF/Lab gap at.

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If Fine Gael becomes by far the largest party after this election as both of you presently predict (there doesn't seem to be much doubt now about them surpassing Fianna Fáil, but the final result could be closer), is there any chance Fianna Fáil and Labour could form a coalition government (Jas predicts the two parties to have 84 TDs between them, just enough for a majority alone if the Ceann Comhairle comes from one of those two parties; some of Jas's projected four Independents or the Greens could give the government a cushion) as I've heard a Fine Gaal-Labour government might be "too large"?  I remember someone saying that about a Fianna Fáil-Labour government with 98 TDs counting the outgoing Ceann Comhairle, whereas Jas projects Fine Gael and Labour to have 109 TDs between them and Gully The Man Machine projects those two parties to have 116 seats between them (although I imagine he would have projected Fianna Fail to elect 2 TDs in Kerry South if he knew about the FF Ceann Comhairle being automatically reelected, which would mean "only" 115 TDs for Fine Gaal and Labour before the new Ceann Comhairle was elected; please correct me Gully if I'm mistaken).

Well, first things first...I wouldn't take for granted that after the next General Election FG will be the largest party. Given that we really don't know when the next election will be between now and 2012, and given how quickly things can change, little can be taken for granted. Plus this is but one poll, with some very unusual numbers. Even though TNS have been our most accurate pollster, one shouldn't be prepared to rule out the possibility that this is a rogue poll.

Now, that said, if a General Election was to be held in the short term and we did get results like this, then a FG-Lab Government is the only realistic outcome. (Your addition of our coalition numbers is a bit off btw, my numbers would give FG/Lab 101 TDs, Gully 109.) If FG get high enough, maybe a minority Government could be considered - but I doubt either of our projections allow that to come about. I don't see Labour contemplating coalition with Fianna Fáil in the medium-term ; FF are politically radioactive at the moment, to be seen to be propping them up could be electoral suicide, and Labour remember that coalition with FF in 1992 led to long-lasting electoral punishment.

Governments that are 'too-large' find that they have problems on their own side rather than with the opposition. It's something which I believe has arisen occasionally in other parliamentary democracies too.

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What seat allocation would that poll give us in the June EU elections?

The European elections here will be complicated by the presumed presence of Libertas, a leading anti-Lisbon Treaty campaign group. Nobody rally knows how they'll perform.

However, taking the numbers at face value, I'd suggest...
Dublin: 1 FG, 1 Lab + either Lab/SF for the 3rd seat.
Lab/SF gain from FF

South: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind
No change
Though I really have no idea how Independent, Kathy Sinnott's vote will hold up.

Northwest: 1 FG, 1 Ind, + either FF/SF for the 3rd seat.
Either no change or SF gain from FF.
Again though judging how well the Independent vote will old is difficult.

East: 2 FG, 1 Lab
Lab gain from FF


Totals:
Fine Gael 5
Labour 2-3
Fianna Fáil 1-2
Sinn Féin 0-2
Independents 2

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Jas, Thanks for not punishing my laziness and counting up my tally.

No problem. I just wanted to see how close our general numbers were.

Anyway I will just add that I don't think that the Greens will do as well as you predict, especially considering the location of their seats - Dublin North, Dublin SE and maybe Dublin South seem to be the only ones which could be possible holds. Possible. Though they might pick up some ex-FF vote from other places.

Well, the poll pretty much has the Greens exactly where they were at the last election. I still think they'll be fairly transfer-friendly (though obviously much less so than they have been) and should see more FF transfers to pick up on. I'd agree though that there would be no safe Green seat in this scenario.

Also in large parts of the country (say Clare or Galway East) it is still difficult for the Labour Party to find a non-joke candidate, though in saying that they will probably some more counciller incumbents after this years locals than before. Also don't underestimate the extent to which large rural conservative constituencies vote for either FF or FG and no-one else (though you are right in your 1992 comparsion, however remember Personality politics is what matters here).

You're quite right. Some of Labour's candidate selections are shameful. However, if we are to presume they pick up 24% of the vote, then surprises will emerge (presumably on a bigger scale than in 1992). I'd suggest even that I've been somewhat conservative about their potential in this prediction...given those sorts of numbers.

[Јas]

Lol@FF in Dublin. But those Dublin numbers for the three parties put together are far too low, what gives?

I'd guess that undecideds/don't knows weren't excluded, but I don't know.

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The same TNS poll, for publication on tomorrow's Irish Times, shows support for Lisbon increasing.
In favour: 51 (+8)
Against: 33 (-6)

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The same TNS poll, for publication on tomorrow's Irish Times, shows support for Lisbon increasing.
In favour: 51 (+8)
Against: 33 (-6)

Breakdown by Party
Fianna Fáil: 60-31
Fine Gael: 59-29
Labour: 53-34
Greens: 57-33
Sinn Féin: 30-49

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The first Millard Browne/IMS poll (for the Irish Independent) since the election was published today.

State of the Parties

	MB/IMS	Election	MB/IMS
	Feb 09	May 08	May 08
Fianna Fáil	25	42	37
Fine Gael	30	27	25
Labour	22	10	12
Sinn Féin	7	7	9
Green	5	5	5
Ind/Other	10	7	9

Satisfaction Ratings
Government: 10-86
Taoiseach Brian Cowen (FF): 21-72
Enda Kenny (FG): 29-57
Eamon Gilmore (Lab): 52-28
Gerry Adams (SF): 37-41
John Gormley (Grn): 28-52

Should there be a General Election called?
52-40

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Same IMB/IMS poll:

Lisbon II:
46-27


In other Euro-news, Fianna Fáil will be changing their European affiliation and moving from the small UEN to the Liberals (Irish Times).

The Greens are crazy to not bring down the government at this point. Just doing so would be worth a big bump in their approval ratings, if not necessarily support.

Paul Gogarty (Grn-Dublin MW) might agree with you. He was interviewed by Hot Press (a music magazine with forays into quasi-leftist anti-establishment political interviews/reporting) last week and made explicitly clear his view that the Greens were being screwed by Fianna Fáil. (see The Irish Times)

My own view, is that pulling out of Government now, and so effectively forcing an Election would be putting every Green seat on the line. Having rowed in directly behind FF on pretty much every major decision of the Government, they would (IMO) need a credible issue to walk out on.

The Greens potentially have a very strong position within Government until 2012. It's possible that the best advice for the Greens is to act on the assumption that they will be all voted out in the next election, and so work to maximise the implementation of Green policies within the lifetime of this Government using their new found leverage as the only thing keeping a historically policy-pliant FF in power.

[Јas]

Today's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll:

Fine Gael 30 (-3)
Fianna Fáil 23 (-5)
Labour 22 (+8)
Greens 6 (-2)
Sinn Féin 11 (+2)
Ind/Other 8 (-)

The numbers are in the same territory as the MB/INS and TNS/MRBI within the last 2 weeks.