Bellwether States and Counties

Bellwether States and Counties - 1960 through 1996

Two states and eight counties have voted for the winning candidate in every election from 1960 through 1996. These are shown below:

Bellwether Map

For 2000 and 2004, the state of Delaware and its dominant county, New Castle, have lost their bellwether status having voting solidly Democratic in the 2004 election (5.1% and 12.3% respectively above the national result). Also, Socorro, NM loses its bellwether status, having voted for Kerry in 2004. Arguably, Eddy, NM and Ferry, WA may also no longer vote in bellwether fashion as the result in each county differed from the national result by more than 9%. The most solid bellwether is Vigo, IN having maintained an average difference relative to the national result of 0.9 percentage points for all Democratic and Replubican Candidates since 1960. The results for the 1960 - 1996 bellwethers are shown below.

Results Nationwide

National

Year D R I Margin %Margin Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 2 1 - 3,012,457 2.46% 48.26% 50.73% 0.00% 1.01%
2000 1 2 3 547,398 0.52% 48.38% 47.87% 2.74% 1.02%
1996 1 2 3 8,201,370 8.52% 49.23% 40.72% 8.40% 1.65%
1992 1 2 3 5,805,256 5.56% 43.01% 37.45% 18.91% 0.64%
1988 2 1 - 7,077,121 7.73% 45.65% 53.37% 0.00% 0.98%
1984 2 1 - 16,878,120 18.22% 40.56% 58.77% 0.00% 0.67%
1980 2 1 3 8,423,115 9.74% 41.01% 50.75% 6.61% 1.63%
1976 1 2 - 1,683,247 2.06% 50.08% 48.01% 0.00% 1.91%
1972 2 1 - 17,995,488 23.15% 37.52% 60.67% 0.00% 1.80%
1968 2 1 3 511,944 0.70% 42.72% 43.42% 13.53% 0.33%
1964 1 2 3 15,953,286 22.58% 61.05% 38.47% 0.30% 0.18%
1960 1 2 3 112,827 0.16% 49.72% 49.55% 0.42% 0.32%


Results for Bellwether States

Delaware:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Delaware - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 1 2 - 28,492 7.59% 53.34% 45.74% 0.00% 0.92%    5.07% -4.98% 0.00% -0.09%
2000 1 2 3 42,780 13.06% 54.96% 41.90% 2.54% 0.60%    6.58% -5.96% -0.20% -0.42%
1996 1 2 3 41,293 15.23% 51.78% 36.54% 10.59% 1.09%    2.54% -4.17% 2.20% -0.57%
1992 1 2 3 23,741 8.19% 43.51% 35.31% 20.44% 0.74%    0.50% -2.13% 1.53% 0.10%
1988 2 1 - 30,992 12.40% 43.48% 55.88% 0.00% 0.64%    -2.17% 2.51% 0.00% -0.34%
1984 2 1 - 50,534 19.85% 39.93% 59.78% 0.00% 0.29%    -0.62% 1.01% 0.00% -0.38%
1980 2 1 3 5,498 2.33% 44.87% 47.21% 6.91% 1.01%    3.86% -3.54% 0.30% -0.62%
1976 1 2 - 12,765 5.41% 51.98% 46.57% 0.00% 1.44%    1.91% -1.44% 0.00% -0.47%
1972 2 1 - 48,074 20.41% 39.18% 59.60% 0.00% 1.22%    1.66% -1.08% 0.00% -0.58%
1968 2 1 3 7,520 3.51% 41.61% 45.12% 13.28% 0.00%    -1.11% 1.70% -0.25% -0.33%
1964 1 2 0 44,626 22.17% 60.95% 38.78% 0.00% 0.27%    -0.10% 0.31% -0.30% 0.09%
1960 1 2 0 3,217 1.64% 50.63% 49.00% 0.00% 0.37%    0.92% -0.55% -0.42% 0.05%


Missouri:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Missouri - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 2 1 - 196,542 7.20% 46.10% 53.30% 0.00% 0.60%    -2.16% 2.57% 0.00% -0.41%
2000 2 1 3 78,786 3.34% 47.08% 50.42% 1.63% 0.86%    -1.30% 2.56% -1.10% -0.15%
1996 1 2 3 135,919 6.30% 47.54% 41.24% 10.06% 1.16%    -1.69% 0.53% 1.67% -0.50%
1992 1 2 3 242,714 10.15% 44.07% 33.92% 21.69% 0.33%    1.06% -3.53% 2.78% -0.31%
1988 2 1 - 83,334 3.98% 47.85% 51.83% 0.00% 0.32%    2.20% -1.54% 0.00% -0.66%
1984 2 1 - 425,605 20.05% 39.98% 60.02% 0.00% 0.00%    -0.58% 1.25% 0.00% -0.67%
1980 2 1 3 142,999 6.81% 44.35% 51.16% 3.71% 0.79%    3.33% 0.41% -2.90% -0.84%
1976 1 2 - 70,944 3.63% 51.10% 47.47% 0.00% 1.42%    1.03% -0.54% 0.00% -0.49%
1972 2 1 - 455,527 24.59% 37.71% 62.29% 0.00% 0.00%    0.18% 1.62% 0.00% -1.80%
1968 2 1 3 20,488 1.13% 43.74% 44.87% 11.39% 0.00%    1.02% 1.45% -2.13% -0.33%
1964 1 2 0 510,809 28.10% 64.05% 35.95% 0.00% 0.00%    3.00% -2.52% -0.30% -0.18%
1960 1 2 0 9,980 0.52% 50.26% 49.74% 0.00% 0.00%    0.54% 0.19% -0.42% -0.32%


Results for Bellwether Counties

Logan, AR:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Logan, AR - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 2 1 - 1,715 20.06% 39.31% 59.36% 0.00% 1.33%    -8.96% 8.64% 0.00% 0.32%
2000 2 1 4 1,204 14.87% 40.55% 55.42% 1.53% 2.50%    -7.83% 7.56% -1.20% 1.48%
1996 1 2 3 866 10.82% 47.89% 37.07% 13.10% 1.95%    -1.35% -3.65% 4.70% 0.30%
1992 1 2 3 587 6.76% 45.99% 39.23% 14.04% 0.74%    2.98% 1.78% -4.86% 0.10%
1988 2 1 - 949 27.08% 35.79% 62.87% 0.00% 1.34%    -9.86% 9.50% 0.00% 0.36%
1984 2 1 - 2,457 27.39% 35.75% 63.14% 0.00% 1.11%    -4.81% 4.37% 0.00% 0.45%
1980 2 1 3 413 4.63% 45.98% 50.61% 1.86% 1.55%    4.96% -0.14% -4.75% -0.08%
1976 1 2 - 2,404 28.98% 64.06% 35.07% 0.00% 0.87%    13.98% -12.94% 0.00% -1.05%
1972 2 1 - 3,008 43.28% 28.14% 71.42% 0.00% 0.43%    -9.38% 10.75% 0.00% -1.37%
1968 3 1 2 181 2.79% 30.74% 36.02% 33.24% 0.00%    -11.98% -7.40% 19.71% -0.33%
1964 1 2 0 1,339 22.71% 61.13% 38.42% 0.00% 0.46%    0.07% -0.05% -0.30% 0.28%
1960 1 2 0 622 13.06% 55.33% 42.28% 0.00% 2.39%    5.62% -7.28% -0.42% 2.08%


Van Buren, AR:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Van Buren, AR - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 2 1 - 678 9.19% 44.89% 54.08% 0.00% 1.03%    -3.38% 3.36% 0.00% 0.02%
2000 2 1 3 283 4.05% 45.85% 49.90% 2.19% 2.06%    -2.54% 2.03% -0.54% 1.05%
1996 1 2 3 1,176 17.29% 51.77% 34.48% 12.20% 1.54%    2.54% -6.23% 3.81% -0.11%
1992 1 2 3 1,207 16.40% 51.88% 35.48% 12.06% 0.57%    8.88% -1.96% -6.84% -0.07%
1988 2 1 - 955 15.38% 41.99% 57.37% 0.00% 0.64%    -3.66% 4.00% 0.00% -0.34%
1984 2 1 - 1,531 22.99% 37.98% 60.97% 0.00% 1.05%    -2.58% 2.20% 0.00% 0.38%
1980 2 1 3 122 1.94% 47.17% 49.11% 2.43% 1.29%    6.16% -1.64% -4.18% -0.34%
1976 1 2 - 2,380 42.29% 71.14% 28.86% 0.00% 0.00%    21.07% -19.16% 0.00% -1.91%
1972 2 1 - 1,028 24.27% 37.64% 61.91% 0.00% 0.45%    0.11% 1.24% 0.00% -1.35%
1968 3 1 2 101 2.73% 31.07% 35.83% 33.10% 0.00%    -11.65% -7.59% 19.57% -0.33%
1964 1 2 0 784 23.39% 61.28% 37.89% 0.00% 0.84%    0.22% -0.58% -0.30% 0.66%
1960 1 2 0 149 6.57% 51.08% 44.51% 0.00% 4.41%    1.36% -5.04% -0.42% 4.10%


New Castle, DE:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for New Castle, DE - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 1 2 - 53,100 21.99% 60.52% 38.54% 0.00% 0.94%    12.26% -12.19% 0.00% -0.07%
2000 1 2 3 48,952 22.98% 59.86% 36.88% 2.71% 0.55%    11.48% -10.98% -0.03% -0.47%
1996 1 2 3 37,894 21.11% 55.05% 33.94% 9.88% 1.12%    5.81% -6.77% 1.49% -0.53%
1992 1 2 3 25,205 12.81% 46.50% 33.69% 19.09% 0.72%    3.49% -3.76% 0.19% 0.08%
1988 2 1 - 13,440 7.77% 45.75% 53.52% 0.00% 0.73%    0.10% 0.14% 0.00% -0.25%
1984 2 1 - 26,084 14.57% 42.57% 57.14% 0.00% 0.29%    2.02% -1.63% 0.00% -0.38%
1980 2 1 3 1 0.00% 45.66% 45.66% 7.62% 1.07%    4.64% -5.09% 1.00% -0.55%
1976 1 2 - 7,447 4.37% 51.38% 47.01% 0.00% 1.61%    1.31% -1.00% 0.00% -0.30%
1972 2 1 - 30,491 17.63% 40.58% 58.21% 0.00% 1.21%    3.06% -2.46% 0.00% -0.60%
1968 2 1 3 1,546 0.99% 43.77% 44.76% 11.46% 0.00%    1.05% 1.34% -2.06% -0.33%
1964 1 2 0 36,985 25.18% 62.46% 37.28% 0.00% 0.25%    1.41% -1.19% -0.30% 0.08%
1960 1 2 0 4,080 2.85% 51.31% 48.46% 0.00% 0.23%    1.60% -1.09% -0.42% -0.09%


Vigo, IN:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Vigo, IN - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 2 1 - 2,562 6.45% 46.36% 52.81% 0.00% 0.83%    -1.90% 2.08% 0.00% -0.18%
2000 2 1 5 451 1.24% 48.50% 49.74% 0.44% 1.32%    0.11% 1.88% -2.30% 0.31%
1996 1 2 3 2,223 5.77% 46.69% 40.91% 11.71% 0.69%    -2.55% 0.20% 3.31% -0.96%
1992 1 2 3 2,216 5.26% 42.81% 37.56% 19.31% 0.32%    -0.19% 0.11% 0.40% -0.32%
1988 2 1 - 2,737 6.63% 46.48% 53.11% 0.00% 0.42%    0.83% -0.27% 0.00% -0.56%
1984 2 1 - 7,830 17.41% 40.98% 58.39% 0.00% 0.63%    0.42% -0.39% 0.00% -0.04%
1980 2 1 3 4,872 10.47% 41.40% 51.87% 5.34% 1.39%    0.38% 1.12% -1.27% -0.23%
1976 1 2 - 1,129 2.32% 50.78% 48.46% 0.00% 0.76%    0.70% 0.45% 0.00% -1.15%
1972 2 1 - 10,832 22.13% 38.60% 60.73% 0.00% 0.67%    1.08% 0.05% 0.00% -1.13%
1968 2 1 3 486 1.04% 43.56% 44.60% 11.54% 0.29%    0.84% 1.18% -1.98% -0.04%
1964 1 2 0 8,605 18.41% 59.05% 40.64% 0.00% 0.31%    -2.00% 2.17% -0.30% 0.13%
1960 1 2 0 165 0.33% 50.03% 49.70% 0.00% 0.27%    0.32% 0.15% -0.42% -0.05%


Lincoln, MO:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Lincoln, MO - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 2 1 - 2,948 14.86% 42.18% 57.04% 0.00% 0.78%    -6.08% 6.31% 0.00% -0.23%
2000 2 1 3 1,588 9.98% 43.74% 53.72% 1.41% 1.12%    -4.64% 5.86% -1.33% 0.11%
1996 1 2 3 747 5.92% 44.75% 38.83% 14.92% 1.50%    -4.48% -1.88% 6.52% -0.15%
1992 1 2 3 1,735 13.59% 42.72% 29.13% 27.98% 0.17%    -0.29% -8.32% 9.08% -0.47%
1988 2 1 - 700 7.04% 46.34% 53.38% 0.00% 0.28%    0.69% 0.01% 0.00% -0.70%
1984 2 1 - 2,847 30.20% 34.90% 65.10% 0.00% 0.00%    -5.66% 6.33% 0.00% -0.67%
1980 2 1 3 853 9.14% 44.03% 53.17% 1.95% 0.86%    3.01% 2.42% -4.66% -0.77%
1976 1 2 - 892 10.96% 54.95% 43.99% 0.00% 1.06%    4.88% -4.02% 0.00% -0.86%
1972 2 1 - 2,343 29.62% 35.19% 64.81% 0.00% 0.00%    -2.33% 4.14% 0.00% -1.80%
1968 2 1 3 43 0.56% 41.21% 41.78% 17.01% 0.00%    -1.51% -1.64% 3.49% -0.33%
1964 1 2 0 2,722 37.47% 68.74% 31.26% 0.00% 0.00%    7.68% -7.21% -0.30% -0.18%
1960 1 2 0 322 4.43% 52.22% 47.78% 0.00% 0.00%    2.50% -1.77% -0.42% -0.32%


Socorro, NM:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Socorro, NM - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 1 2 - 329 4.19% 51.27% 47.08% 0.00% 1.66%    3.00% -3.65% 0.00% 0.64%
2000 1 2 3 121 1.77% 48.26% 46.48% 4.09% 1.17%    -0.13% -1.38% 1.35% 0.16%
1996 1 2 3 1,059 16.64% 53.02% 36.38% 7.15% 3.46%    3.78% -4.34% -1.25% 1.80%
1992 1 2 3 722 11.86% 47.77% 35.91% 15.08% 1.25%    4.76% -1.54% -3.83% 0.61%
1988 2 1 - 154 2.48% 47.61% 50.09% 0.00% 2.30%    1.97% -3.28% 0.00% 1.32%
1984 2 1 - 862 14.25% 42.01% 56.27% 0.00% 1.72%    1.46% -2.51% 0.00% 1.05%
1980 2 1 3 459 8.47% 41.05% 49.52% 7.14% 2.29%    0.04% -1.23% 0.53% 0.66%
1976 1 2 - 341 6.90% 52.76% 45.86% 0.00% 1.38%    2.69% -2.15% 0.00% -0.54%
1972 2 1 - 664 14.04% 42.16% 56.19% 0.00% 1.65%    4.63% -4.48% 0.00% -0.15%
1968 2 1 3 359 8.38% 43.68% 52.07% 4.04% 0.21%    0.96% 8.65% -9.49% -0.12%
1964 1 2 0 623 14.90% 57.33% 42.43% 0.00% 0.24%    -3.72% 3.96% -0.30% 0.06%
1960 1 2 0 531 12.86% 56.37% 43.51% 0.00% 0.12%    6.65% -6.04% -0.42% -0.19%


Eddy, NM:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Eddy, NM - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 2 1 - 6,388 31.51% 33.94% 65.46% 0.00% 0.60%    -14.32% 14.73% 0.00% -0.41%
2000 2 1 3 3,227 18.14% 39.96% 58.10% 1.44% 0.49%    -8.42% 10.24% -1.30% -0.52%
1996 1 2 3 425 2.24% 47.16% 44.92% 6.83% 1.09%    -2.08% 4.21% -1.57% -0.56%
1992 1 2 3 96 0.53% 40.70% 40.18% 18.84% 0.27%    -2.30% 2.73% -0.06% -0.37%
1988 2 1 - 1,261 6.80% 46.10% 52.90% 0.00% 1.00%    0.45% -0.47% 0.00% 0.02%
1984 2 1 - 4,446 22.96% 38.03% 60.99% 0.00% 0.99%    -2.53% 2.21% 0.00% 0.32%
1980 2 1 3 2,789 16.07% 40.49% 56.55% 1.88% 1.08%    -0.53% 5.80% -4.73% -0.54%
1976 1 2 - 1,375 8.14% 53.73% 45.59% 0.00% 0.68%    3.66% -2.42% 0.00% -1.23%
1972 2 1 - 4,881 31.81% 32.84% 64.65% 0.00% 2.51%    -4.68% 3.98% 0.00% 0.71%
1968 2 1 3 1,100 7.30% 40.44% 47.74% 11.09% 0.72%    -2.28% 4.32% -2.43% 0.39%
1964 1 2 0 4,469 24.78% 62.20% 37.42% 0.00% 0.38%    1.15% -1.05% -0.30% 0.20%
1960 1 2 0 721 4.30% 51.89% 47.59% 0.00% 0.52%    2.17% -1.96% -0.42% 0.20%


Ferry, WA:

Year D R I Margin %Margin Results for Ferry, WA - Difference from National
Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth. Dem. Rep. Ind. Oth.
2004 2 1 - 818 24.46% 35.92% 60.38% 0.00% 3.71%    -12.35% 9.65% 0.00% 2.70%
2000 2 1 3 964 31.73% 30.68% 62.41% 3.85% 3.06%    -17.71% 14.54% 1.12% 2.05%
1996 1 2 3 106 3.76% 42.49% 38.73% 14.48% 4.30%    -6.74% -1.99% 6.09% 2.64%
1992 1 2 3 190 7.43% 37.66% 30.23% 29.80% 2.31%    -5.34% -7.22% 10.89% 1.67%
1988 1 1 - 0 0.00% 48.10% 48.10% 0.00% 3.81%    2.45% -5.28% 0.00% 2.83%
1984 2 1 - 297 13.44% 42.31% 55.75% 0.00% 1.95%    1.75% -3.03% 0.00% 1.28%
1980 2 1 3 306 14.57% 38.19% 52.76% 6.05% 3.00%    -2.82% 2.01% -0.56% 1.37%
1976 1 2 - 38 2.25% 48.11% 45.86% 0.00% 6.03%    -1.97% -2.15% 0.00% 4.11%
1972 2 1 - 255 16.70% 36.67% 53.37% 0.00% 9.95%    -0.85% -7.30% 0.00% 8.15%
1968 2 1 3 12 0.87% 42.97% 43.84% 13.12% 0.07%    0.25% 0.42% -0.40% -0.26%
1964 1 2 0 405 27.76% 63.81% 36.05% 0.00% 0.14%    2.76% -2.42% -0.30% -0.04%
1960 1 2 0 298 19.28% 59.57% 40.30% 0.00% 0.13%    9.86% -9.25% -0.42% -0.19%



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