URL: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_Democratic_Iowa_caucus_poll.html
Question:
1. If the vote for the Democratic nominee for president were held today would you vote for: (likely voters)





Age
Gender


Total
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Male
Female

(Base)
(977)
(34)
(88)
(436)
(419)
(392)
(585)


%
%
%
%
%
%
%


Edwards
29.8
17.6
35.2
27.1
31.3
31.4
27.9

Clinton
26.4
26.5
15.9
28.2
38.7
26.0
35.2

Obama
24.3
35.3
35.2
19.5
12.6
19.6
17.8

Another candidate
12.1
8.8
8.0
15.4
11.9
17.6
9.9

Undecided
7.4
11.8
5.7
9.9
5.5
5.4
9.2






2. If you are planning to vote for a candidate other than Clinton, Edwards, or Obama, and your candidate fails to receive the required 15% of the overall caucus vote in the first round of voting, and if the remaining choices were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, which candidate would you vote for as your second choice? (Likely voters)





Age
Gender


Total
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Male
Female

(Base)
(977)
(34)
(88)
(436)
(419)
(392)
(585)


%
%
%
%
%
%
%


Edwards
42.3
29.4
42.0
41.7
47.3
46.9
41.5

Obama
29.4
38.2
40.9
25.5
16.9
26.3
21.9


Clinton
28.2
32.4
17.0
32.8
35.8
26.8
36.6
















3. If the vote for the Democratic nominee for president were held today would you vote for: (highly likely voters)





Age
Gender


Total
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Male
Female

(Base)
(633)
(17)
(52)
(307)
(257)
(219)
(414)


%
%
%
%
%
%
%


Obama
26.6
41.2
38.5
20.8
14.0
21.9
19.1

Edwards
26.0
5.9
25.0
26.1
32.3
32.0
25.8

Clinton
23.8
23.5
15.4
27.7
35.8
21.0
34.5

Another candidate
14.0
5.9
11.5
15.6
12.1
20.1
10.1

Undecided
9.5
23.5
9.6
9.8
5.8
5.0
10.4










5. If you are planning to vote for a candidate other than Clinton, Edwards, or Obama, and your candidate fails to receive the required 15% of the overall caucus vote in the first round of voting, and if the remaining choices were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, which candidate would you vote for as your second choice? (highly likely voters)





Age
Gender


Total
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Male
Female

(Base)
(633)
(17)
(52)
(307)
(257)
(219)
(414)


%
%
%
%
%
%
%


Edwards
41.9
23.5
38.5
41.4
49.4
48.9
41.3

Obama
31.1
41.2
46.2
27.0
15.2
28.3
22.0


Clinton
27.0
35.3
15.4
31.6
35.4
22.8
36.7

Poll Demographics

About this Poll
This InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll of the Iowa Democratic caucus was conducted Dec. 16-17. The margin of error on the first two questions is 3%; on the second two questions is less than 4%. Both polls weighted for age and gender.

Note: The first two questions were asked of likely voters in the Democratic caucuses. The third and fourth questions are the same as the first and second questions, but the third and fourth questions were asked of highly likely voters (based on a series of questions designed to pinpoint those most likely to participate in the caucuses.)