Question:
I am going to read match-ups between some possible Democratic and Republicans in next November’s general election for U.S. Senate. For each pairing, please tell me which candidate you would vote for if the election for U.S. Senate were being held today. What if the candidates were (SEE RELEASE FOR NAMES AND PARTIES)? If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today, for whom would you vote?

January 2010
October 2009
March 2009

Boxer (D) vs. Campbell (R)
Boxer
48%
N/A
N/A
Campbell
38
N/A
N/A
Undecided
14
N/A
N/A

Boxer (D) vs. Fiorina (R)
Boxer
50%
49%
55%
Fiorina
35
35
25
Undecided
15
16
20

Boxer (D) vs. DeVore (R)
Boxer
51%
50%
N/A
DeVore
34
33
N/A
Undecided
15
17
N/A

Poll Demographics

About this Poll
The latest Field Poll survey was completed by telephone January 5-17, 2010 among a total of 958 California likely voters in the November general election and 202 likely voters in the GOP primary. The survey polled a random cross section of voters statewide and for the general election this sample was supplemented with additional interviews conducted among random samples of Chinese-American, Korean-American, Vietnamese-American and African-American voters to permit the poll to examine these voter subgroups. The survey was conducted in six language and dialects – English, Spanish, Cantonese, Mandarin, Korean and Vietnamese – based on the preference of the voter.
The main statewide sample was developed by selecting voters randomly from a list of registered voters throughout California. Supplemental samples of Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese voters were developed by selecting voters with ethnic surnames most associated with these populations and screening them to determine their eligibility. After the completion of interviewing, the overall sample was weighted to align it to its proper statewide proportions by race/ethnicity and other demographic characteristics of the registered voter population.
Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Interviews were conducted on either a voter’s landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter.
Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error estimates for results based on the sample of likely voters in the general election is +/- 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while the maximum sampling error based on the sample of likely voters in the GOP primary is +/- 7.1 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have somewhat smaller margins of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other sources of error.
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