Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2009-06-22 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	0
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	-1	-2	0	0	0	-2
Rep	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

It should be noted that at this early stage of the game nothing is for sure. Be that as it may, I feel that the GOP has the chance to do quiet well.

New Jersey: For now the polls tend to indicate that Chris Christie has a good shot at beating incumbent Govenor Jon Corzine. However, Republicans tend to poll pretty well in New Jersey in the spring and summer while the fall favors the Democrats. That could very well be the case. This is blue New Jersey. However, given the dissatisfaction with Corzine and the general support for Christie I think the GOP has a shot at this seat.

Virginia: This is going to be a close one. Last time Deeds and McDonnell faced off McDonnell won by a margin of only 300 votes or so. Deeds tends to be a moderate to conservative Democrat and enjoyed wide support in the party's primary. This could make things tough for McDonnell in the red-purple state of Virginia. However, McDonnell did beat him once, enjoys his own levels of good support, has no intra party troubles, and is an experienced member of the current executive branch. Not only that but the last two govenors came from the office that McDonnell currently holds, the Attorney General. So while the race is a real tossup I'll leave it, narrowly, in the GOP's column for now.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-09-05 @ 11:53:00
Actually, ConservRep, the last two governors of Virginia, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, DEFEATED two GOP Attorney Generals. Before that, however, the last GOP governor was Jim Gilmore, indeed a former AG. However, I think as you do that McDonnell can break that string of defeats by GOP AGs in Virginia, provided the chatter on the positively medieval views he expressed in his thesis doesn't stick and dies away. If you want to look for threads, no candidate has been elected governor of Virginia from the same party as the sitting president since 1973. So maybe this is your party's time to shine in Va. ...

By: CR (--MO) 2009-10-12 @ 19:36:51
Well so far things look over encouraging in Virginia. As I suspected New Jersey has tightened up as we moved into October. That usually happens to the GOP in that state in the fall. At least as far as the polls are concerned. However, I believe both races to be promising at this point and so is a great chance for my Republican party to gain some badly needed electoral ground.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-10-13 @ 12:37:46
Both internals SV and Democracy Corps have their respective candidates leading, while public polls still favor Christie. The final Survey USA poll will be the one who wins the race. Both candidates have had their problems in the race, Christie with traffic violation and Corzine with personal dissatisfaction with job performance. Both will be neutralized in the debates as we move forward. Last Edit: 2009-10-13 @ 12:41:53

By: CR (--MO) 2009-10-13 @ 21:52:29
Still the closeness in blue New Jersey and the good numbers coming out of red-purple Virginia are encouraging.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

Links

Back to 2009 Gubernatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home