The dynamics of the Virginia race change as Deeds falls behind.

Well it took longer than usual, but the Democrat is back ahead in New Jersey, just at the last minute. This race is very close, but the smart money is that Corzine has taken a slight sliver lead, owing in great part from negative campaigning, large spending, and the Daggett third party candidacy.

The New Jersey see-saw tips back slightly to Christie in what is becoming anyone's race.

In Virginia, Deed still trails. However in New Jersey, true to form, the Democrat is beginning to overtake the Republican. Corzine is just about crossing the threshold of moving ahead. This race is close people!

McDonnell has bounced back into a wide lead in Virginia. Meanwhile, in typical New Jersey fashion, the Democrat is coming back from the dead. But Corzine is very unpopular, and Christie might be able to just hold on for victory. New Jersey is a race to watch.

As we approach the end of September, it appears that Christie is holding on for victory in New Jersey. Corzine's hopes of a comeback may hinge on whether he can push Christie below 50%, with, as is usually the case in New Jersey, third party candidates taking at least 3%-6%. Here I see Christie getting 50%-51% of the vote.

I may have spoken prematurely...the race has prematurely tightened- in Virginia! Perhaps the McDonnell thesis is finally starting to weigh on McDonnell. He is still the favorite to win, however, and it does not appear that Deed can move himself far enough ahead in this increasingly difficult environment for Democrats across the country. McDonnell has dominated for most of the race so far.

It's mid September and Christie and McDonnell are staying well ahead. One would've expected more volatility in these races, but it might just be that the voters have made up their minds and that these races are going to see little movement. It doesn't look like McDonnell is suffering yet from his graduate thesis and it also doesn't seem like the tide is turning on Christie, worrisome for Democrats at this stage.

Christie's support is slowly being eroded in New Jersey, but as Labor Day rolls around, he's maintaining his lead. Can he hold on?

The dynamics of the Virginia race change as Deeds falls behind.

The race in Virginia remains close, but McDonnell has maintained a consistent edge. Deeds still has time to pull ahead, however. But on the other hand, the conditions might just be right for the GOP...this time.

So far, so good for Chris Christie in his bid to unseat Jon Corzine. Even considering the disadvantages that a Republican has to have running in New Jersey, what more could Christie ask for?

Corzine is gaining some ground in New Jersey, and remains dangerous, though Christie still retains a healthy, if not diminished, lead.

My first prediction map of 2009. Republicans have a lot to feel good about in these two races. They have very strong candidates, both of whom have lead their respective races for much of the year. The Virginia race is close, as is typical these days. Deeds is probably the strongest Dem candidate, but McDonnell is also a strong candidate, who has a united Virginia GOP behind him, hungry for blood after several statewide losses for governor, Senate and now even president. Deeds has the power of the Dem trend, and the strong Kaine-Warner legacy. Deeds will also be hard to taint as a liberal, but McDonnell could still fall prey to being portrayed as a conservative yokel out of the George Allen/ Jerry Kilgore mold. I now give the race slightly to McDonnell. In New Jersey, I know never to count the Democrats out and Corzine could still pull this one out, but Christie is the Republicans best candidate, and Corzine is not popular. I think Christie can win this, but he'll need every vote.

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