Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-08-16 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	-1	-2	0	0	0	-2
Rep	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
4	2	2

Analysis

I have Christie only winning by +40% because I think Daggett will siphon away enough votes and Corzine will close the gap, but not enough to actually win. Probably will look like 49-45-5.

Member Comments

By: Aguagon (D-AZ) 2009-11-05 @ 22:03:31
Frighteningly accurate on New Jersey. Good job!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	30/37	21/37	51/74	68.9%	2	137	206	T	456
2010 Governor	30/37	17/37	47/74	63.5%	1	292	197	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	79	1	T	103
Aggregate Predictions	62/76	40/76	102/152	67.1%

Links

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