PredictionsNewsEndorse2010 Gubernatorial Predictions - d-russ (I-OH) ResultsForumPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Advertisements

Time Plot Posters!

300-200-tplots-ad


Date of Prediction: 2010-10-28 Version:40

Prediction Map
d-russ Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
d-russ Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep28
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem4
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind0
 
Tos10
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+2+2-3-10-13426-11
Rep+3+10+130-3-36915+10
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Analysis

Along with wins in both houses of congress I predict 13 pickups for the GOP and 5 pickups for the Democrats. A net gain of 8 for the Gop. Lets take a look at the races!

Ohio
John Kasich vs Ted Strickland
This is my home state. Under Ted Strickland Ohio has lost 400,000 jobs. Ted Strickland has made Ohio the seventh highest taxed state in America. John Kasich has a huge lead in the polls. He should win this one.

Pennsylvania
Tom Corbett vs Dan Onorato
Democratic governor Ed Rendell has been an absolute disaster as governor of Pennsylvania. Corbett with a large amount of popularity and a massive lead in the polls along with Rendells unpopularity in Pennsylvania being baggage for the Democrats Corbett should win this one easily.

Michigan
Rick Snyder vs Virg Bernero
Jennifer Granholm was one of the worst governors in America. She will be massive baggage for The Democrats. The Democrats are simply offering more of the policies that helped destroy Michigan and along with high unemployment the voters will most likely vote Rick Snyder into office as governor.

Tennessee
Bill Haslam vs Mike McWherter
With the Democrats unpopularity in Washington and Bill Haslams massive lead in the polls this heavily Republican state should come back into GOP hands in November.

Nebraska
Dave Heineman vs Mark Lakers
Nebraska is one of the most conservative states in The Union. Dave Heineman should easily win.

Wyoming
Matt Mead vs Leslie Petersen
Another heavily Republican state where McCain won 65% of the vote in 2008. Without Freudenthal running and a massive lead in the polls from Mead this state should easily go to Mead.

Illinois
Bill Brady vs Patrick J. Quinn III vs Rich Whitney
With the Blagojevich scandal hurting the Democrats and a lead in the polls for Brady this seat should go for the GOP. Rich Whitney will definitely not win. Brady will win.

New Mexico
Susan Martinez vs Diane Denish
Susan Martinez is ahead in the polls and has a positive message for her state. This will be a very close race but in the end Martinez will win.

Utah
Gary Herbert vs Peter Corroon
Gary Herbert has a huge lead in the polls in a conservative state where McCain won by 62% of the vote and Bush in 2004 won 71.54% of the vote. Herbert will easily win.

California
Meg Whitman vs Jerry Brown
Jerry Brown is well known in his home state. He even ran on a 13% Flat Tax in the 1992 Democratic primary against Bill Clinton and Paul Tsongas. But Meg Whitman is more conservative than Jerry Brown and she has business experience that being a plus for I think she will win in the end.

Colorado
John Hickenlooper vs Tom Tancredo vs Dan MaIn a conservative state in a Republican year this race should hve gone Republican. But in a 3-way race I dont think The Republican or Tom Tancredo can win. John Hickenlooper will win.

Iowa
Terry Branstad vs Chet Culver vs Gregory James Hughes
Iowa is center-right state. They are tired of Obamas agenda. Terry Branstad has a huge lead in the polls. Gregory James Hughes is impressive but in the end will not win. I predict a win for Terry Bransted.

Arizona
Jan Brewer v Terry Goddard
Jan Brewer has taken on illegitimate citizens giving her a large amount of popularity in the state that she didnt have before. She now has a huge lead in the polls. I predict Jan Brewer wins a full term in office.

Oklahoma
Mary Fallin vs Jari Askins
Fallin has a huge lead in a very conservative state. McCain got 66% of the vote in Oklahoma. Mary Fallin will win.

Texas
Rick Perry vs Bill White
Rick Perry even though he is a moderate will win this Texas race. Texas is very conservative state. I predict a win for the GOP.

Massachusetts
Deval Patrick vs Charlie Baker vs Tim Cahill
Deval Patrick is in trouble in Massachusetts. He ruined the state. Charlie Baker is also having problems with Tim Cahill in the race whose drawing votes away from Baker. In the end I predict a win for Baker.

Minnesota
Mark Dayton vs Tom Emmer vs Tom Horner
Minnesota has traditionally been a very independent state. They have voted Democrat in presidential elections since 1976 almost losing in 1984 with Reagan. They also voted for Jesse Ventura an Independent and Tim Pawlenty a Republican. This race is clearly a toss-up. I predict a win for Mark Dayton.

New York
Andrew Cuomo vs Carl Paladino
Andrew Cuomo is more of the same while Carl Paladini represents change. There is alot of anger in New York over taxes and irresponsible government. Lazio is out of the race. but I think with the polls on Cuomo's side he will win in the end. This race will go to Cuomo.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: {Faye} (D-NV) 2010-10-30 @ 11:04:43 prediction Map
"Carl Paladini represents change."

You think Carl "Paladini" represents change? Well I'll tell you who really represents change - Jimmy McMillan, because The Rent Is Just Too Damn High.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 136 17T
P 2012 President 48/56 28/56 76/112 67.9% pie 84 5 702T
P 2012 Senate 25/33 13/33 38/66 57.6% pie 27 3 283T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 6/11 15/22 68.2% pie 3 43 131T
P 2012 Rep Primary 40/52 20/52 60/104 57.7% pie 57 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 3/4 2/4 5/8 62.5% pie 3 14 37T
P 2010 Senate 31/37 17/37 48/74 64.9% pie 48 1 265T
P 2010 Governor 31/37 18/37 49/74 66.2% pie 41 2 179T
P 2008 President 48/56 21/56 69/112 61.6% pie 4 12 1031T
Aggregate Predictions 237/288 126/288 363/576 63.0% pie



Back to 2010 Gubernatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home

© David Leip 2009 All Rights Reserved