Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:123

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	13
Rep	23
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	21
Ind	1
Tos	4
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+5	+5	-2	-9	-11	5	3	8	-6
Rep	+2	+9	+11	0	-6	-6	6	6	12	+5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	33	26

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 85

Version: 21

I was sad to see Artur Davis loose the AL Democratic primary.

Version: 17

best case Dems...

Version: 14

SAFE DEM (7)
AR: Beebe (65-35)
MA: Patrick (42-35-23)
NH: Lynch (59-40)
NM: Denish (63-35)
OR: Kitzhaber (57-42)
NY: Cuomo (68-30)
HI: Abercrombie (64-34)

Lean/Likely Dem (5)
CA: Brown (54-46)
CT: Lamont (53-45)
ME: Mitchell (53-42)
MD: O’Malley (56-43)
AZ: Goddard (53-47)

Close Dem (6)
MN: Dayton (52-45)
AL: Davis (51-48)
GA: Barnes (52-47)
OH: Strickland (53-46)
WI: Barrett (50-48)
NV: Reid (50-48)

Independent (1)
RI: Chafee (41-32-27)

Close GOP: (6)
SC: McMaster (51-47)
VT: Dubie (52-46)
FL: McCollum (53-46)
PA: Corbett (54-46)
TX: Perry (46-43)
CO: McInnis (52-47)

Lean/Likely GOP (5)
MI: Hoekestra (55-44)
IL: Brady (54-46)
IA: Branstad (58-41)
TN: Haslam (57-43)

SAFE GOP (8)
AK: Parnell (60-38)
ID: Otter (64-36)
NB: Heineman (72-25)
WY: Simpson (59-40)
UT: Herbert (66-32)
SD: Daugaard (61-39)
KS: Brownback (61-37)
OK: Fallin (62-38)

Version: 13

Dem's best case scenario.

Version: 11

I'm going harsh on the Dems for now. I'd like to give them more seats, but the polls aren't agreeing with me. States that should be leaning Dem are polling as tossups (CA, AZ, CO, MN, OH, WI, IL).

Version History

Member Comments

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 11:59:57
This is a leap of faith, but I'm calling OH for Strickland. ...I'm hoping for loss of Stickland/Portman crossballots!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	3	0	194	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	19/34	47/68	69.1%	8	1	213	T	362
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	3	0	8	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	21/36	54/72	75.0%	37	0	138	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	21/36	51/72	70.8%	31	0	22	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	4	58	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	44/56	99/112	88.4%	61	0	146	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	25/33	57/66	86.4%	34	0	5	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	3	0	1	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	42/52	21/52	63/104	60.6%	30	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	29	66	37	T	106
2010 Senate	37/37	30/37	67/74	90.5%	191	0	2	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	123	0	59	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	360/397	250/397	610/794	76.8%