Election 2011 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2011-09-02 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		3 \|	4 \|	50 \|
Dem	2
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	46

Confidence States Won

		3 \|	4 \|	50 \|
Dem	2
Rep	2
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	46

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 8)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
6	4	2

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

West Virginia: Solid Democrat at the state level. With Shelley Moore Capito not running, this race should be a fairly safe bet for the Democrats.

Kentucky: Steve Beshear remains solidly popular in the state. David Williams is hated. Enough said. Solid Democrat.

Mississippi: Haley Barbour being ineligible for reelection shouldn't scare Republicans in the state. Given the way Mississippi has been trending at the state level in recent years (the gradual loss of seats by state Democrats in the legislature), Republicans should have an edge. Phil Bryant, the lieutenant governor, is running and is likely to win the nomination. The Democrats have yet to field a top-tier candidate to make the race competitive.

Louisiana: Governor Bobby Jindal is very popular and no top-tier Democrats have declared yet. Given increasing Republican strength in the state, Democrats are unlikely to knock off Jindal.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	30	1	T	115
2022 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	3	7	124	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%	6	2	51	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	11	1	T	118
2020 President	53/56	44/56	97/112	86.6%	8	7	103	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	7	3	137	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	5	12	10	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	3	5	35	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	24/35	56/70	80.0%	6	6	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	23/36	55/72	76.4%	4	2	122	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	3	2	1	T	149
2016 President	47/56	32/56	79/112	70.5%	16	0	280	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	22/34	52/68	76.5%	8	5	35	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	4/12	13/24	54.2%	7	5	119	T	279
2015 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	3	0	1	T	112
2014 Senate	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	18	0	99	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	20/36	49/72	68.1%	13	0	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	4	7	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	48/56	104/112	92.9%	13	1	13	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	6	0	20	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	0	5	T	228
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	2	67	12	T	106
Aggregate Predictions	489/537	369/537	858/1074	79.9%