Election 2012 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	6
Rep	5
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	6
Rep	5
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	-2	-2	3	3	6	-2
Rep	0	+2	+2	0	0	0	2	1	3	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 8)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
16	10	6

Analysis

Updating my map to reflect what the nytimes.com blog, FiveThirtyEight is predicting this morning, via the Presidential level, and I would have to admit that with rain system over North Carolina it will be tough for the Democrats to hold the Governorship there (that plus recent problems with the state Democratic party in N.C. and a 2nd time showing for former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, R. that's been very good.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2013 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	230	138	T	153
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%	4	0	115	T	760
2012 Senate	33/33	20/33	53/66	80.3%	4	0	56	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	3	0	89	T	228
Aggregate Predictions	99/102	71/102	170/204	83.3%

User Info

SouthernLiberal Gubernatorial Endorsements

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