A lot of changes in this update, mostly in the Midwest. Iowa/Ohio go from Lean R -> Strong R. Branstad has recovered from his poor news cycles in Iowa and should easily win re-election, whereas Kasich's opponent has essentially thrown in the towel. In the opposite direction, Michigan and Wisconsin have moved towards the Dems. While they remain toss ups and could easily go either way, I'm changing Wisconsin from Walker -> Burke and Michigan from Snyder -> Schauer. Also, I'm giving the Republicans the slightest of edges in Connecticut, moving it from Malloy -> Foley.

AR: Lean R -> Strong R. GA: Toss Up -> Lean R.

MA: Coakley -> Baker. HI: Lean D -> Strong D. NE: Lean R -> Strong R.

AZ: Toss Up -> Lean R

Kansas: Lean D -> Toss Up.

Maine: Lean D -> Toss Up. I kept this one at lean D for so long because I figured Cutler would end up fading in the home stretch, or perhaps even drop out and endorse Michaud. Neither seems like it will happen at this point.

CT: Foley -> Malloy

Michigan: Schauer -> Snyder. Massachusetts: Lean D -> Toss Up.

NM: Lean R -> Strong R

Alaska: Parnell -> Walker. Illinois: Rauner -> Quinn.

Arkansas: Toss Up -> Lean R. Wisconsin: Burke -> Walker.

RI: Strong D -> Lean D

Arizona: Lean R -> Toss Up. Minnesota: Strong D -> Lean D.

AK: Strong R -> Lean R. GA: Lean R -> Toss Up

AR: Lean R -> Toss Up. SC: Lean R -> Strong R.

A lot of changes in this update, mostly in the Midwest. Iowa/Ohio go from Lean R -> Strong R. Branstad has recovered from his poor news cycles in Iowa and should easily win re-election, whereas Kasich's opponent has essentially thrown in the towel. In the opposite direction, Michigan and Wisconsin have moved towards the Dems. While they remain toss ups and could easily go either way, I'm changing Wisconsin from Walker -> Burke and Michigan from Snyder -> Schauer. Also, I'm giving the Republicans the slightest of edges in Connecticut, moving it from Malloy -> Foley.

Arkansas: Toss Up -> Lean R. Georgia: Toss Up -> Lean R. Kansas: Toss Up -> Lean D.

Hawaii to Lean D due to Ige's primary victory.

Connecticut: Lean D -> Toss Up. It's looking like Malloy is in for a difficult race, but he'll probably slide through again. Illinois goes from Quinn -> Rauner, but only by a knife's edge. This is still very much a toss up, and it would not surprise me at all for Quinn to barely squeak through yet again. Hawaii will probably move back to Lean D (at least) if Ige wins the primary, but for now I'll keep it at a toss up.

Colorado goes from Lean D to Toss Up. New Mexico goes from Lean R to Toss Up. Kansas stays at a Toss Up, but I'm giving it to Davis now. His fortunes seem to only be improving as time goes on, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain it after Brownback goes on the offensive.

Georgia has gone from Lean R to Toss Up. If it wasn't for the fact that Carter needs to crack 50% in order to win, I'd probably give Carter the win. But due to the presence of a potential runoff, I still give Deal a very slight edge. Hawaii has gone from Lean D to Toss Up. The presence of the independent Hannemann who is polling strongly and the yet to be decided Democratic primary, along with the notoriously bad/sparse Hawaii polling, makes this race extremely difficult to judge. Michigan has gone from Lean R to Toss Up. Snyder appears to still have a slight edge, but it's no longer the large lead he used to command. Oklahoma's Strong R rating has not changed, but a poll suggests the race could be potentially competitive. At the least, this probably means the Democrat won't be blown out, so I lessened the winning share of the vote for Fallin from >60% to >50%.

Democrats will most likely be gaining governorships this year. Probably the best case scenario for the GOP is no net change, or maybe +1 if they're having a really great night. Although I currently have the Dems gaining a net of 2 governorships (the prediction says 3, but Lincoln Chafee is a Democrat now, so Rhode Island is not a gain), that's actually pretty decent news for the GOP considering how bad it could potentially get for them. At the moment, they seem to be doing a pretty good job at holding their turf, especially in key Rust Belt races such as Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. As of right now, their only black eye is Pennsylvania, where it's all over but the shouting. The only question at this point is whether Wolf wins by double digits, or his numbers come back to earth and he ends up winning by "only" 5-10 points.