Election 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-31 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	22
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	18
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	0	+3	-1	-2	-3	9	2	11	0
Rep	+1	+2	+3	-3	0	-3	16	3	19	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
31	30	1

Analysis

CT, IL, CO pure tossups. rnCT slight lean D due to incumbency. IL slight lean D due to incumbency. CO slight lean R due to polling, R GOTV effort WI, MI, ME slight lean R due to incumbency. FL, KS lean D takeovers due to polling. RI (open) leans D due to polling. MA lean/R takeover due to polling. AK slight lean I due to polling. GA slight lean R, due to incumbency, polling edge. 50/50 chance Deal averts runoff.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	35/36	2/36	37/72	51.4%	1	4	359	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	1/36	31/72	43.1%	1	4	293	T	300
Aggregate Predictions	65/72	3/72	68/144	47.2%

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