PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - Inks.LWC (R-MI) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2007-11-29 Version:17

Prediction Map
Inks.LWC MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Inks.LWC MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem252
 
Rep286
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem205
 
Rep212
 
Ind0
 
Tos121
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+30+21-20-211822310
Rep+20+21-30-212832650
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Rom/Huck v. Edw/?????


NC D40T --> R50T


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: EarlAW (D-ON) 2007-11-29 @ 01:22:04
Edwards isn't going to win the Democratic nominationprediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-30 @ 00:41:47
Nor will Romney be the Republican candidate. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-30 @ 03:06:34
Inks still has Louisiana as lean. That state will be so solid GOP in 2008 it wont even be funny. Due to jim crow laws... oh wait.. the blacks are either 1) successfully in random cities, like Atlanta or San Antonio or 2) killing each other in Houston.

Last Edit: 2007-11-30 @ 03:12:23
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 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-11-30 @ 06:50:53
IMHO, Romney wouldn't do nearly this well. Under the very best of circumstances I see him keeping the states Bush won in 04, minus New Mexico and perhaps narrowly taking New Hampshire.

Romney has hurt himself with Republicans because of his Kerry-esque flip-flopping, and hurt himself with Independents and Moderate Democrats by trying to pander to the GOP base.
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2007-11-30 @ 07:11:24
Romney would not carry a number of states included here especially if Dems carry Missouri...for example Iowa, New Hampshire will not favor Romney- neother would Michigan, Ohio or Virginia

McCain is strongest opponent to Hilary unless Ron Paul runs as Ind. then Hilary wins
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 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-11-30 @ 07:15:14
I highly doubt Ron Paul will run as an Independent, he's smarter than that. If he wants a Democrat to win, he'll run, but I'm sure he'd much rather have a Republican.

He is, technically, a Republican after all... : P
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-11-30 @ 07:21:18
Oh, I wouldn't say no to a Paul ind run yet.

If RP is a republican, then I am the pope.
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-11-30 @ 09:44:04
The GOP looks at Ron Paul as the "crazy uncle in the attack." He's anti-war and there is no way he will get the nomination from the GOP base who is overwhelmingly pro-military and pro-Iraq war. So why is he raising so much money? He's going for third party run!prediction Map

 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-11-30 @ 09:50:16
I did say technically... :P

He does have more in common with a Republican than he does a Democrat though; but if he's not a Republican than he should draw just as many supporters from the Dems as the GOP, so Huck could still win.

These days you have to be a Perot to mount a successful 3rd Party/Independent run. Either that or have a rallying issue (like global warming) to bring people to your cause. If what Paul speaks of was a rallying issue, the Libertarian candidates would draw more votes than they do.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-11-30 @ 15:01:18
To run a successful independent campaign you need:

1.) about 4 billion of your own dollars.
2.) people willing to draft you.
3.) Huge name recognition
4.) and maybe one controversy around you to get people talking.

Were Bill Gates to launch an independent campaign, you watch, he would end up on the ballot in all 50 states, and could pull at least 10% of the vote.

But Paul is like a major cult figure that I cannot figure out. And his following is young!!
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-30 @ 19:06:46
Ron Paul was asked at the debate point blank last night if he'd run as an independent and he said no. He said he is running to be a Republican nominee and if he does not get it then he is done. I heard him speak and there was little room for doubt. My guess is that he would go back to the House to crusade for libertarian causes. prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-11-30 @ 20:05:32
ConservRep, who WILL get the Rep nomination?prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-30 @ 20:10:45
Inks, he says Giuliani. You see moderate partisan republicans stick together.

He claims to be a conservative, ConservRep, but he is in reality a moderate conservative. And if he doesn't like that, TOO BAD!
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 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-30 @ 20:16:38
ConservRep use to like Thompson, untill he saw the failure that Thompson was.

If Thompson got the nod, which is still vaugely possible, his motto should be Fred Thompson: Ugly America.

Ironically, Thompson is one of the least repulsive GOPers. Texaslefty agrees with me on that.
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-30 @ 20:21:38
You know Inks at this point I really don't know. lol, But if you want my personal opinion on the race I can give it to you. I think right now the race is going to be between Huckabee, Thompson (both strong at the debate), Giuliani (our front runner). I think McCain burned too many bridges with a majority of the GOP electorate to win the nomination and Romney just doesn't play well.

The most likely senerio at this point to me is as follows. Romney has not caught on nationally and has poured himself into the traditional early states. For a while he was considered the alternative to Rudy. But now Huckabee is coming on fast and eating up a lot of support that was for Romney or Thompson. Mike could very well win Iowa. Even if he doesn't he looks to come in a very close second. And if Rudy is third then that is an absolute disaster for Mitt.

This takes us to New Hampshire. Romney may have some lead their now, but in five or six weeks? And if he is seriously damaged in Iowa that opens up an opertunity for the second place guy in NH which is Rudy. Even if Mitt wins, Giuliani will be in second place. Then its off to Michigan were Rudy is currently ahead of Mitt. Rudy could win there and is likely to follow that win with Nevada. South Carolina is the next stop and its anyone's guess with Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee doing well. If Rudy wins NH, MI, and NV I think he could win SC. If Fred wins it and Rudy is second or third, Mitt's done.

Hawaii votes later that week and I expect Rudy picks it up along with Florida and then Maine. Now we hit Super Tuesday where Giuliani's strongest states are. At this point Paul, Hunter, Tancrato, and maybe McCain will have dropped out. Fred is likely to win Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia. Mitt will win in Utah. If McCain is around he could get Arizona and maybe Rhode Island while Huckabee picks up Arkansas.

But Rudy is in a good position to win New York, Missouri, New Jersey, Delaware, North Dakota, New Mexico, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Montana, Minnesota, Connecticut, Oklahoma, California, and Oregon. Following Feb 5 is Maryland and Virginia on the 12 where Rudy is favored in both along with Wisconsin on the 19.

So at this point I'd say Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee drop out (after Feb 5). Romney would be forced to drop out sooner or later. Giuliani would thus be the candidate.

However, the race is very fluid and could change. But as I see it, there is about half (roughly) of our party interested in Rudy and the other half not. That other half is divided between the other top 4 candidates. Thompson and Huckabee are dividing the southern vote. Romney and McCain are dividing the moderate not Rudy vote. And the Christian vote is heavily fragmented between all 5. There is also the fact that amoung the four non-Rudy candidates, a majority of their supporters list Rudy as their number 2 choice.

Well that is how I see things. What do you think Inks??
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 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-11-30 @ 20:22:44
Even if Paul does run, I don't see him breaking the 4% barrier, but that still could be enough to tip the vote in favor of the Dems in several key states.

However, I think most of the people that support Ron Paul are people that don't typically show up on election day, I could be completely wrong, but that is the way I perceive it; they may show up for Ron Paul, but any other candidate could not typically count on those people.

OTOH, I find a Nader run to be very likely, at least if HRC is the Dem candidate. With fire in the west, drought in the south, and winds in the east, he could garner a lot of support in '08. Throw in a few good Hurricanes next year and you've got a Tor-Nader of a candidate (My Lord, that was a stupid joke).

Anything is possible at this point I suppose, maybe I should run for President.
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-30 @ 20:22:58
And James, I'm about as standard a Republican as you can get. Both a social and fiscal conservative. I'd hardly call myself a moderate just because I like Rudy, lol. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-30 @ 20:23:04
Inks is more fun to mess with then ConservRep actually.

ConservRep, don't think your the only one I mess with. There are plenty of others I mess with also, and yes this includes texaslefty.
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 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-30 @ 20:23:59
Oh, I'm not special, LOL. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-30 @ 20:25:09
No, and it isn't limited to Republicans either. Usually a bit more fun tho. The liberals usually block me.. hahaprediction Map

 By: texaslefty (I-UT) 2007-11-30 @ 20:45:03
No ConservRep, as a fellow Scientist, you are not special. And I hope your getting a BS and not a BA!prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-11-30 @ 22:38:49
CR is a lot of talk! lol... :) He likes to say he is a conservative Rep, but he certainly does some moderate talk. I want to take him to work with me one day- get him around some good, old, white, male investors! That should teach him what conservative is! lol...

Chance of getting nomination:
Rudy 50%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 25%

Last Edit: 2007-11-30 @ 22:39:47
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 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-30 @ 22:41:32
doniki80, he has sad before that his family would disown him if he ever voted Democrat or become moderate, iirc. :Pprediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-11-30 @ 22:43:07
Oh he is full of it- no offense CR... If you are conservative why are you so nice to me and James? If the men at work knew I was gay, I'd get fired so fast! Seriously, I'd have no job! prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-30 @ 23:03:24
It is an ongoing joke. ConservRep one time joked about it once, and I have been periodically joking about it ever since.

Missouri social conservatism is a whole different thing then Ohio. Compare Kenny Hulshof to some of y'all GOP Congressman.

CR is conservative, just not an idoit conservative.
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-11-30 @ 23:25:56
I agree. He's not that bad- you can have a debate with him and, though he might not agree with you he doesn't act superior or "holier-than-thou" like the Republicans I deal with every day! I don't know, the guys I work with would never even think of voting for Rudy Giuliani! He's way too liberal for them! That's why I maintain that Conservrep should change his name to Modrep. No offense CR... lol..

Last Edit: 2007-11-30 @ 23:26:33
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 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-01 @ 00:20:45
Dang yall have no real lives!

To answer CR's question - I think Romney will take IA - I think Huckabee will peak too early (and Romney isn't really losing support, Huckabee is just gaining) - I think he'll definitely hold NH no matter what happens in IA. I think he's got a good shot at SC and MI and if he gets those states he's got it - now, if Huckabee keeps gaining, I may change my prediction (to a Democratic win most likely).
prediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-12-01 @ 00:28:12
Why does everyone talk like they are in dog-patch? lol.. Y'all, yokels, Opie, Floyd, the Barber Shop? What the hell is this?prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-12-01 @ 00:52:50
Do have a real life, no while I'm working on all these lab reports, gag! Oh the curse of the scientist. And yes Texasindy, no BA for me, I'm a stick BSer. No pund intended.

ModRep hummm, just doesn't feel right. As I've said, Rudy is only half a moderate. And though those guys at work may say they won't vote for him now, but when it comes election day between him and Hillary, well no one can see you in the voting booth.

And why you ask I'm I a conservative and nice to you and James doniki, well quiet simple, I'm a Christian. And just because I don't agree with your lifestyle does not mean I'm going to attack you. I've got my own problems and I can't make choices for anyone but me. If we are going to show God's love, we are not going to do it by hating people. We can take stands for what we believe without all that.

But thanks guys for the nice comments. I like to think I'm fair. I may be conservative but I also like to stop into reality every now and again, lol.

Ink, thanks for the info. Romney may win in the early states yet, but if Rudy stays in the number 2 or 3 position then he can still grab Nevada, Florida, Hawaii, and Maine and move on into Super Tuesday. Guess we'll just have to see how it goes!
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 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-01 @ 01:14:21
He'll keep Florida and HI, but I don't know about ME and NV.

You should come on the forum - you'd have fun there.
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 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-12-01 @ 04:41:26
ConservRep,

texaslefty/indy has a BS in Biology. She is having problems finding a job, do you think she should go ahead and get her masters, or find a job now? or a bit of both? She is having problems with her situation.

Inks, why on earth would you want ConservRep on this forum.. all he would do is predict a GOP victory in every single race...

And you know that I do have a life inks, im just a bit shy.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-12-01 @ 15:39:22
"He is a border-line poor hater."

Now what is this junk?
This kind of accusation has nothing to do within such a debate.

Enough is enough. Control yourself, James. This is truly inappropriate behaviour.
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 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-12-01 @ 19:27:06
What are you talking about?prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-12-01 @ 20:09:23
Inks (and everyone), be sure to check out my new map. Its a GOP primary devoted page. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-12-02 @ 01:43:20
Inks is probably one of the better looking republicans on this board.prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-02 @ 02:27:48
Physically James?prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-12-02 @ 02:29:21
Probably.prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-02 @ 04:27:13
Have you actually seen any of the others? And that's kinda insulting to them, since you've told me that I'm OK. If the best here is OK, then they must be ugly in your mind.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2007-12-02 @ 04:48:15
Oh, Lord...

James, that was a quote from you that you have since deleted.
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 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-12-02 @ 08:50:34
@bonncaruso

Yep, I saw it, I say we prosecute him to the full extent of the law.

@Inks

Republicans are naturally ugly, that's why we become Republicans. There are a few Republican women that are teh hawt though, but I don't understand that at all...

Also, I read something about someone's family disowning them. Mine already disowned me, they're a bunch of Democrats, it must be in the Moore Family genes, luckily I'm an Adams, I do have some Moore in me though and it scares me...

Last Edit: 2007-12-02 @ 08:55:38
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 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-12-02 @ 10:20:56
It was an ongoing joke with ConservRep, nothing serious.prediction Map

 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-12-02 @ 11:03:24
Too late, the paperwork has been filed, your going down.prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-12-02 @ 11:17:38
This is a joke too right? prediction Map

 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-12-02 @ 11:47:36
If this is a joke, then I'm a Republican Hick from Kentucky.prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-02 @ 12:37:27
What joke? I missed it.prediction Map

 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-12-02 @ 12:44:01
I'm not entirely sure actually...

I'm just lonely and need conversation...
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-12-02 @ 17:18:08
I picked up on it! Of course sluts just have a 6th sense! James is doing something naughty!

And how does everyone know what eveyone else look like? And I saw James comment too, but I thought "why the hell fight with the kid." I get in enough trouble on here all the time. I'll let Bonn handle this one....lol...

Last Edit: 2007-12-02 @ 17:18:41
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 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-02 @ 18:40:00
James is my friend on Facebook - we've been internet friends for about a year now.prediction Map

 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-12-02 @ 18:53:44
Yuck, Facebook...prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2007-12-04 @ 01:59:23
I think McCain probably would be the strongest GOP candidate. I wouldn't count him out quite yet...he may pull another New Hampshire upset. But he has the same problem as 8 years ago - where would he go from there?prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-04 @ 03:41:11
Wow - I just realized it's been 8 years since the 2000 election - I feel old.prediction Map

 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-12-04 @ 04:25:06
Yeah, I was thinking about that the other day. It seems like just yesterday I was standing in line waiting to vote for Bush and make up for voting for Bill in '96.

Time flies when your invading countries...

I wonder how different the world would be if we'd had "President Dole"...

Last Edit: 2007-12-04 @ 04:26:18
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 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-12-04 @ 10:58:34
I don't know how the world would be different, but- since Bill Clinton invaded Iraq you never know! prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2007-12-04 @ 12:52:18
Doniki: Clinton did some tactical bombing. He did not invade.prediction Map

 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-12-04 @ 12:59:33
Yeah, everyone knows Clinton didn't have the balls to invade Iraq... :Pprediction Map

 By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2007-12-04 @ 13:26:31
Wingindy, it was joke... And there wouldn't be the need to invade Iraq when Iraq wasn't a threat to our national security... Of course you are against "nation builiding!?"prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-12-04 @ 13:27:46
Inks, as far as me saying your "okay", you dont remember the time when I put on your so-called anonymous honesty box on face book, "your cute." ? If that box was so anonymous how did you know it was me?prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-04 @ 15:51:53
Because you're the only one who would do that.prediction Map

 By: outzawe (R-KY) 2007-12-04 @ 16:02:48
Yes, yes, doniki, I was only joking.

...and I think this discussion has gotten a little lost...

Last Edit: 2007-12-04 @ 16:06:35
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 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-12-04 @ 16:09:39
lol, this map has some strange comments.

Now, texaslefty's map has the strangest parade of comments! LOL read through her comments, on both her maps, they are funny...

But it was only inevitible her map would be infested with stupid comments, considering what happened last spring 2007..
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 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) 2007-12-05 @ 03:06:01
I don't read her page - way too many comments to keep up with.prediction Map

 By: texaslefty (I-UT) 2008-01-15 @ 18:11:17
Oklahoma is too solid on all your maps.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2023 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 23 74T115
P 2022 Senate 34/35 31/35 65/70 92.9% pie 1 1 3T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 1 1 5T272
P 2021 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 6 1T118
P 2020 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 1 6 179T684
P 2020 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 1 4 44T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 6 51T293
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 4 14T192
P 2018 Senate 31/35 25/35 56/70 80.0% pie 1 1 42T483
P 2018 Governor 30/36 26/36 56/72 77.8% pie 1 3 94T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 2 40T149
P 2016 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 2 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 23/34 54/68 79.4% pie 1 1 6T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 2 1 67T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 11 8T112
P 2014 Senate 33/36 24/36 57/72 79.2% pie 3 5 82T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 18/36 47/72 65.3% pie 3 1 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 6 17T153
P 2012 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 7 1 115T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 5 1 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 22/52 65/104 62.5% pie 37 - 22T231
P 2011 Governor 3/4 1/4 4/8 50.0% pie 1 332 79T106
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 16 0 21T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 8 0 17T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 6 1T103
P 2008 President 51/56 45/56 96/112 85.7% pie 32 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 14 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 10 1 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 26/52 68/104 65.4% pie 30 - 20T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 19/49 60/98 61.2% pie 31 - 11T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 4 21 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 10 2 232T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 14 1 36T312
P 2004 President 51/56 25/56 76/112 67.9% pie 24 4 1441T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 900/994 637/994 1537/1988 77.3% pie


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