This is Clinton v Giuliani with a possible third candidate.

I think that there is a possibility of a third party candidate targeting "Values" voters or failing that they actually don't turn up to vote will swing it for the Dem candidate in several states.
I think that if Rep pick Giuliani that independent Dem leaning committees will run negative ads in the south showing him saying one thing as Mayor of NYC and another as Presidential candidate. I think that this will create enough doubt in "Values" voters to mistrust what he says and believe that he will not keep his promises on social issued; judge nominations etc.

I think that the reason that he will be so unpopular with "Values" voters would be that he will have a dirty floor fight with one or possible two other candidates to get the nomination. He's could possible have a southern VP candidate forced onto his ticket. This could cause a whole host of problems and it would be something that the Dem's could take advantage of.

I know that it's still a year out, but looking at the primary timetable, another possibility is that the Dems will have a candidate selected early in the year, say about march, while the Rep will have to wait till the convention to find out who will be the candidate. This could give Clinton the chance to look presidential and present her message to the nation and ignore the Rep because "if they can't actually win a campaign how can you expect them to run a country?"

I know the argument is kind of all over the place, but it's very late here.

O.K.
I am basing my map on Clinton v Giuliani with no third party candidate of any importance. I'm ignoring the VP completely, I believe that they will choose based on the top of the ticket.
I think that the splitting of the christian voting block will cause problems with the GOP and I think that the biggest problem will be values voters staying home.
I think that the current round of endorsements show that there isn't a straight choice, being split between those who will support Giulani as a way of beating Clinton and those who won't support Giuliani because of his liberal social views and will look for some other candidate to support. I think that the GOP leadership will be successful in holding people who would have fun staying on the reservation.
I think that it wouldn't be a big problem where the GOP has a god lead, but in states where they don't make up a large part of the GOP vote I think it will make the difference between Giuliani winning the state and Clinton winning.

The only choice that I'm wondering about, and which I have mulled over a lot is WV. There is a chance, I feel, of the Dems winning the state. But I will accept that the GOP has an equal change of also winning the state.

this is an edit of version 5. I'm going to reproduce what was discussed below.

Analysis (version 5)

This is a Clinton V Giuliani v Bloomberg

This is based on the following assumptions.

Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination hands down.
Giuliani wins the Republican, Thomson make a kind of splash, but either by leaving it too late to get into the rase, or he doesn't rase enough money. But he could damage Giuliani, even denie him the nomination outright.
Bloombery runs on the Unity08 ticket with Hagel, and judging by an article in the NY times today, http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/07/20/poll-an-independent-president/
Republicans seem to favor an independent more than democrats.
so they are the assumption I've made in this map.

I've used the 1992 and 1996 elections and the independent vote as a guide in gesstamating the vote for an Independent. I decided on an average national vote of 11% and varied it across the states, using how they voted in 1992 and 1996 as a guide of more than 11% or less than 11% i used +/- 3% as limits which is roughly what was Perot's was in 1996.

I hope this makes sense.

Comments from Version 5:

By: AnythingGoes41 (I-IL) - 2007-07-21 @ 01:49:09
I agree that a Bloomberg candidacy currently will draw more Republican votes than Democrat. However, I would argue that given a credible third party candidacy such as Bloomberg, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin will be much closer and I highly doubt Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina will go Dem if Clinton is the nominee.

By: ConservRep (R-MO) - 2007-07-21 @ 06:15:38
I have talked about Bloomberg over and over, so I won't go into detail here again. But I read an AP story ealier today that Hagel says he has no intention of leaving the GOP or running in 2008. Not that if would matter if he did.

By: Tarazis (O-IRL) - 2007-07-21 @ 07:17:05
The reason I gave Florida, Virginia and N.Carolina to the Dems are as follows.

Independent National Vote (1992) 18.91% (1996) 8.4&

FL 1992:19.82%, 1996:9.12%, So guessing FL should go for an Independent over the 11% I've assigned. Since the difference between Bush and Kerry in 2004 was only 5%, and assuming that Rep's are more likely to go Independent, then Reps are more likely to lose votes than Dems.

I would still give Virginia, With the increasingly Democratic nature of the population growth in the northern part of the state I feel that it would go dem, but only with a 1.5% max difference.

Looking back at the figures I would have to agree that that N.Carolina is unlikely to go.

Now how Do I change my map to reflect this?
I'm going to do version 6 now and you can see it there.....

This is a Clinton V Giuliani v Bloomberg

This is based on the following assumptions.

Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination hands down.
Giuliani wins the Republican, Thomson make a kind of splash, but either by leaving it too late to get into the rase, or he doesn't rase enough money. But he could damage Giuliani, even denie him the nomination outright.
Bloombery runs on the Unity08 ticket with Hagel, and judging by an article in the NY times today, http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/07/20/poll-an-independent-president/
Republicans seem to favor an independent more than democrats.
so they are the assumption I've made in this map.

I've used the 1992 and 1996 elections and the independent vote as a guide in gesstamating the vote for an Independent. I decided on an average national vote of 11% and varied it across the states, using how they voted in 1992 and 1996 as a guide of more than 11% or less than 11% i used +/- 3% as limits which is roughly what was Perot's was in 1996.

I hope this makes sense.

O.k....this is a response for gporter poser....completely going by gut.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59801.0

Even I don't think that it's based in reality...

I think that FL will vote for Gore as an apology for 2000. I think that he'll also carry CA coz he won and oscar. WA and OR for his love of trees and weather. Iowa because of Bio-fules and TE because he came from there and they are also sorry for not voting for him in 2000. MA, NH and VT coz of the trees thing. So it's trees on either side with show Biz, money and regret in the middle for Gore.

the Dem. and Rep. is all speculation...

as you can see now that there is no over all control.
I think that the vote would be Rep 50. Dem 50 and Dick Chaney casts the deciding vote.

Gore then goes mad.

(I actually really like Gore)

This is Clinton v Giuliani based on a Gallop poll taken Jun 11-14 2007

This is like talking out loud, I know we're 18 months out. I would welcome any comments, suggestions etc.
This is Clinton/Obama v Giuliani/Romney with Bloomberg as an independent.
it's guessing a lot. I This that Bloonberg would eat into both tickets, but I think that he would be a spoiler more for the Republicans that the Democrats.
Anyways it's going to be fun.

This is general, based on local factors and on national trends. It complete guess work.

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