Sparing all the usual hoopla, this is my final answer. If I was able to go back in time and show this map to myself two months ago, Past Me would probably declare Present Me a hack.

The economy has collapsed. Bad news for Wall Street, bad news for Main Street, and, most of all, bad news for John McCain. I could gloat that Reaganomics are dead, but hey, probably not...Americans on both sides of the aisle have always loved their bumper sticker philosophies, and "less government intrusion will fix everything!" will remain, I am sure, a very popular sentiment for a very long time.

But maybe not so much right now. Dems are arguing passionately and persuasively for the death of reckless de-regulation and the creation of better safeguards, and the public is listening. The economy is unarguably the #1 issue of this election now, and American politics has reached an era where that simple fact will favor the Democrat just as surely as terrorism being the #1 issue would favor the Republican. Obama is doing as well in the polls as he has ever done, and McCain's time is running out. It has already been shown that the debates won't do anything to help McCain, and may, in fact, do just the opposite. Johnny now needs the mother of all October surprises AND the Bradley effect working in full swing if he hopes to catch up to Obama on election day. He needs to win virtually every state that can now be considered a swing state (see my confidence map for my thoughts on which of the states can now be called swing states).

Barack Obama has always been a lucky man. He was elected to the U.S. Senate against a cream puff opponent who made constant gaffes and he won a primary against Hillary Clinton that he had no foreseeable business winning. The polls, the trends, the debates, the economy, they all point to his luck continuing.

Also, Sarah Palin.

Changes from last month’s prediction and explanations for them:

Alabama: “R>50” to “R>60”. This one was always on the border, and even now, in Obama’s finest hour, the hockey mom will pummel the alleged black nationalist Muslim.

Alaska: “R>50” to “R>60” and “Lean R” to “Strong R”. Two words: Sarah Palin.

Delaware: “D>50” to “D>60”. Two more words: Joe Biden.

D.C.: “D>90” to “D>80”. I feel like a chump backing down because of an ARG poll, but here we are.

Florida: “R>50” to “D>40”. The demographics of this state have always favored McCain. There were times in the campaign when I felt it would be pointless for Obama to spend another dime in Florida. It fact, it seemed like nothing short of a 6-8% national lead could swing Florida Obama’s way. And it still does.

Kansas: “R>60” to “R>50”. Given the national circumstances, I see McCain falling just short of 60% here now.

Kentucky: “R>60” to “R>50”. Ditto.

Maine: “Strong D” to “Lean D”. I’m not sure what’s behind Obama actually losing momentum in Maine, except maybe bad polling.

Michigan: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Team McCain has prematurely admitted defeat in Michigan, making an Obama victory here almost inevitable. Thank you, Team McCain.

Montana: “Tossup” to “Lean R”. This one was always a bit too good to be true, and ever since the RNC, Montana has been pretty solidly back in McCain’s column. I credit Sarah Palin’s gun enthusiasm.

Nevada: “D>40” to “D>50”. Nevada remains the least likely of the Southwestern swing states to go for Obama, but under the current national circumstances, it would be all his.

New Jersey: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. The show has been stolen in New Jersey, and the thief is Barack Obama.

New Mexico: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Even in the best-case remotely realistic scenario I can imagine for McCain right now, he still loses two Bush states.

North Carolina: “R>50” to “R>40” and “Lean R” to “Tossup”. And here we have it, ladies and gents: North Carolina as an honest-to-God swing state. Honestly, I think the vast majority of undecideds here will break for McCain, probably throwing him the state, but hey, a 1 or 2-point Obama loss in North Carolina is a huge win for the Democratic Party.

North Dakota: “Tossup” to “Strong R”. Quite a leap to make in one month, but the RNC and Sarah Palin have worked their magic on North Dakota quite well. Obama has pulled his men from the state, and the dream of carrying much-coveted North Dakota is over. Somehow, I think Obama will get over it.

Ohio: “R>40” to “D>50”. If the election were held today, would Obama manage to take much-coveted (no sarcasm this time) Ohio? In the words of Sarah Palin, you betcha!

Oregon: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. Remember 2000, when Gore won Oregon by less than 7,000 votes? 2008 won’t be anything like that.

South Dakota: “Lean R” to “Strong R”. And wherever North Dakota went, South was sure to follow.

Tennessee: “R>60” to “R>50”. Do less Tennesseans think Obama is a Muslim now? Or have more just embraced him as a POPULIST Muslim?

Virginia: “R>40” to “D>50”. Quick logic question: if Virginia used to be the just-out-of-reach-for-the-Dems not-quite-Deep-South swing state, and North Carolina is now the just-out-of-reach-for-the-Dems not-quite-Deep-South swing state, where does that leave Virginia?

West Virginia: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Those folks who predicted McCain would break 60% -- hell, even 70!% -- in West Virginia must be eating a lot of crow right now. Turns out, economic populism trumps even racism. Who knew?

It's time for my monthly update, and what a time to attempt an update. Based on Gallup and Rasmussen's daily tracking polls, Obama currently has the lead nationally by 5-8 points, but that can be attributed to the fact that we have seen Obama's convention bounce hit the national polls, but not McCain's. So I'm left at a disadvantage: will the RNC eat into Obama's lead? Erase it completely? REVERSE it? No way to tell.

Meanwhile, most of the state polling has not been updated since the convention, and reflects a time when the two candidates were tied in the national polls. It is all I have to go on in a lot of cases, but it is faulty at best. And trying to correct for it in this especially uncertain week is all but impossible. So, doing the best I can:

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Colorado: “D>50” to “D>40”. Colorado may well be what Ohio was in 2004 (but hopefully, with different results). Recent polling has shown the state to be incredibly close, but edging in McCain’s direction. It is my hope that fresh, post-convention polling will show Obama with his groove back here.

Delaware: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. I’m gonna go ahead and assume Joe Biden takes this state out of play. Because, you know, McCain’s odds of stealing it were so amazingly high before Biden jumped on the ticket.

Idaho: “R>50” to “R>60”. This is me wimping out on my “Idaho will trend hugely to the Dems” call. It will trend to the Dems, but hey, Idaho is Idaho.

Kansas: “R>50” to “R>60”. The fling with Obama is over, and the true colors have emerged. Don’t know what more there is to say.

Kentucky: “R>50” to “R>60”. Kentucky remains on the >50/>60 border, but I’m gonna bias this one in favor of McCain based on a few recent conversations with authentic Kentuckians.

Nevada: “R>40” to “D>40”. It would be nice if we could get some fresh polling out of Nevada from more reliable firms, but based on what I have to work with, the pendulum seems to be swinging back towards Obama here. Maybe. It’s still as close as can be.

North Dakota: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. North Dakota continues to dress in swing state clothing. I’m still skeptical, but it’s getting less and less difficult to believe North Dakota has caught some strain of Obamamania.

Pennsylvania: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Obama’s lead here has been modest but amazingly steady over the past few months. Plus, I have a hunch Biden will play well here.

Tennessee: “R>50” to “R>60”. I knew this state was in trouble when CNN did a report a while back about how a third of its residents believed Obama to be a Muslim.

Texas: “Lean R” to “Strong R”. It’s not that McCain is picking up a lot of traction in Texas; his lead is remaining remarkably steady. But that’s just it: though I’m willing to predict McCain will beat Obama by less than half the margin Bush beat Kerry here, it’s still a lock for McCain any way you look at it.

Virginia: “D>40” to “R>40”. It will be down to the wire. The polls are basically tied, but I feel I have to give the tie breaking vote to McCain, just because Virginia is traditionally a Republican state.

It's time for my August update, and we have a little problem here: the national polling and the state polling ain't lining up.

Since my July update, which saw Obama still cruising on a wave of support following his clinching the nomination, the national polling (as measured by Gallup and Rasmussen) has moved from advantage Obama to statistical tie to advantage Obama again (courtesy of, I suspect, the Europe trip) to statistical tie again, which is where they currently stand. Happily, not once for the past few months have things stood at advantage McCain, by any measure. But if we're to believe the current national numbers, we should be seeing a near tie; if we look at the composite state polls, we should be seeing Obama winning with well over 300 electoral votes. So what's going on?

One thing to explain the gap is time delay. Many of the recent state polls were released when Obama was riding high, which would explain why he's allegedly dominating Pennsylvania, winning Ohio, and even with McCain in Florida and Missouri. I suspect fresh state polling in even the coming days will show McCain gaining steam in these states -- and many more.

Another possible thing to account for the gap: in 2004, Bush was able to run up victory margins in the severely red states that Kerry could not match in the severely blue states. Although you don't have to look further than North Dakota to see that many of the traditionally hardcore Republican states have been diminished, it still seems likely that McCain will be able to break 60% in more states -- and in states with bigger populations -- than Obama, potentially accounting for "wasted votes" that will enable Obama to win the electoral college handily even if he ties McCain for the popular vote. Of course, if you're going to believe this theory, you have to conveniently ignore the very real possibility that Obama will break 60% in the massive states of Illinois and New York -- and that would be a LOT of "wasted votes" benefiting McCain.

I tried to take all the above into account while updating my prediction this month. I ended up with a headache.

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Alabama: “R>60” to “R>50”. Just like in 2004, Alabama will end up voting a little more conservative than its neighbors, but I once again think increased minority turnout will keep Obama above 40% in all the Southern states. This change of heart is, admittedly, based more on recent polling of states surrounding Alabama than polling from Alabama itself, but with McCain holding (alleged) single-digit leads in Mississippi and Georgia, I can’t see Obama NOT doing a good deal better than Kerry here.

Idaho: “R>60” to “R>50”. It seems like just yesterday that Bush was crushing Kerry by a 38% margin in Idaho, but the times have changed considerably. The Larry Craig scandal seems to have done some legitimate damage to Idaho Republicans (not enough to make them lose elections to Idaho Democrats, though – let’s not be silly), and the 2006 Idaho gubernatorial race shocked the country by being…*gasp*…almost competitive. McCain vs Obama polling is consistent with McCain being right below the 60% border, and with Montana having recently achieved swing state status, I’m willing to believe it.

Illinois: “D>60” to “D>50”. The latest poll from Illinois (and the state ain’t being polled much) was a disappointment, showing Obama up by only 11%. Tough, especially considering a total slaughter in Illinois seems well within the range of possibility. But alas, no Democrat has managed to break 60% in Illinois at the presidential level in…well, ever, I’m pretty sure. Better safe than sorry.

Montana: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. Montana? A swing state? Before you start looking for Ross Perot’s name on the ballot, remember that Democrats – admittedly, local Democrats – have been able to win throughout the state for decades now. Independent spirits have always been able to appeal to the Montana electorate, and, whether it’s legitimate or not, Obama has a strong image as an independent spirit. Memo to McCain: get the NRA good and riled up in Montana to get this state firmly back in your column.

Nebraska: “R>50” to “R>60”. The very short-lived fling with Obama is over, and Nebraska is re-embracing its conservative roots vigorously. Those early Dem pipe dreams about being able to swing a congressional district or two just seem embarrassing now.

Nevada: “R>50” to “R>40”. At the time of this writing, 50.3% of Atlas predictors think Nevada will go for Obama; 49.1% think it will go for McCain. That about sums it up: polls, geography, state history and logic all point to Nevada being INCREDIBLY close in November. I’d like to think Barr will perform well here, given Nevada’s strong libertarian tendencies, and throw things to an Obama plurality, but there’s no evidence in the polls to support that yet. We’ll have to wait and see.

New York: “D>60” to “D>50”. Obama’s margin of victory in the polls couldn’t be much more erratic here; due to the aforementioned tight national polling, I’m siding with the polls showing Obama up something in the 13-20% range. It’s more than good enough.

Ohio: “D>50” to “R>40”. Speaking of erratic polling: Ohio is the new king of it. Along with Nevada and Virginia, I would rank Ohio as one of the three closest states right now. Given the current very tight national numbers and the tendency of Ohio’s results to mirror the national results – with a slight Republican tilt – I’m VERY tentatively giving it to McCain. For now.

Rhode Island: “D>50” to “D>60”. Things are looking more promising than ever in always-liberal Rhode Island. They might have preferred Clinton, but they’re coming around to Obama, big-time.

South Carolina: “Lean R” to “Strong R”. Time to face the facts: Obama has hit a glass ceiling in South Carolina, as well as Georgia and Mississippi. The polls sometimes show a tantalizingly close race in the deep south, but that data reflects record numbers of minorities voting damn near unanimously for Obama. Until the deep south gets a bigger minority population, there’s simply nothing Obama can do that will ever allow him to break 45% in these states. No point in mining for the fool’s gold.

Wisconsin: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Something is about to happen to America’s bluest purple state (or bluest purple state, if you prefer) that hasn’t since 1988: one candidate is going to take a majority of the votes! And that candidate is, of course, Barack Obama. I’ll let geography take the credit for this one.

There is only one thing preventing Obama from surely becoming the next President of the United States: the fact that the election is not held tomorrow.

My July update finds Barack Obama riding a bump that's been going on ever since shortly after I entered my last update. Gallup and Rasmussen's daily tracking polls have been consistently showing Obama with a statistically significant lead when you look at the overall trend. Hopes are up, and though it might seem (and frankly, is) silly to assume that Obama will win in November based on what the polls are showing in early July, there is cause for a longer-term optimism. Obama is gaining great ground in unifying the Democratic party, and if he can succeed in keeping shipwreck victims from the U.S.S. Hillary on board (and I don't see any reason he won't be able to), McCain will have a hard time opening up a statistically significant lead in the polls on him again. The only other foreseeable party crasher is mass latent racism, and all we can do there is keep our fingers crossed.

Of course, there are plenty of UNFORESEEABLE events ahead, and nobody knows exactly how the picking of the veeps and the conventions and the debates will change the polling (with Bush out of the debates, they're no longer a guaranteed Dem poll booster). Fear not, Republicans: McCain can absolutely still win this thing. I just like his chances of doing so a lot less than I did a month ago.

On to the nitty gritty.

Changes from last month’s prediction and explanations for them:

Arkansas: “R>60” to “R>50”. Hillary’s endorsement has helped Obama enormously here, and fresh polling after the Unity Rally might even show Obama’s upper limit to be around 45%. Still, a sure loss in the end.

Florida: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. The polls are just inconsistent enough to keep Florida interesting. Demographically speaking, it’s still McCain’s territory, and frankly I trust the pollsters showing McCain leading here (such as Rasmussen) a bit more than I trust the ones showing Obama leading (such as ARG and Public Policy Polling). However, given Obama’s surge in the recent national polling, Florida can’t be discounted as a potential Dem pickup.

Kentucky: “R>60” to “R>50”. Again, credit to Clinton. Obama won’t be slaughtered here, but he won’t end up doing much better than John Kerry, either.

Michigan: “D>40” to “D>50”. Michigan appears to be over the delegate fiasco and is embracing its Democratic roots. I have a hard time imagining McCain leading here again – even a McCain/Romney ticket would have a hard time swinging Michigan to the GOP.

Missouri: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. Like Floria, the polling is inconsistent. Missouri’s location doesn’t provide any clues: it’s technically in the Midwest, where Obama is polling better than any Democrat has in a long time, but it’s also down there by the South, where he doesn’t have a frigging chance. Diagnosis: unknown.

New York: “D>50” to “D>60”. More credit to Hill. Obama is right on that >50/>60 border, but with the memory of 9/11 not quite so fresh and with the subsequent fear mongering fading from New Yorkers’ minds, I suspect the state will return to its 2000 liberalism.

Ohio: “R>50” to “D>50”. The elusive, alluring Ohio might just finally be in the Dem column right now. The state’s results in presidential elections have been eerily similar to the national result for decades now, so if Obama hopes to keep Ohio blue, he better win the national election. Or maybe it’s the other way around.

Virginia: “R>50” to “D>40”. Virginia might just be the closest state in the Union right now. For those who need a history lesson, the state last voted Dem at the presidential level in 1964, but the state has been trending rapidly left in recent years. Winning over Virginia would be quite an accomplishment for the Democratic party, as well as a testament that a little time and a little hard work can turn red states purple (and maybe even blue someday). Plus, a Virginia victory would be something for Obama to shove in Bill Clinton’s face.

Washington: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. Remember those early polls here that showed McCain leading Obama? Neither do I.

Another month has gone by, and the polls haven't changed much: Obama and McCain are still consistently statistically tied nationally, with perhaps the slightest of edges going to McCain. For all that, though, at this point the electoral math might just be giving the slightest of edges to Obama. Either way, what I can't stress enough is that if this election were held today, it would be very, very close. My hope is that Obama will get a significant bump after Clinton concedes (which should be happening any second now), but that will remain to be seen.

I should note that all of my predictions up until this point (this prediction included) have assumed no successful third party candidacies, which is a risky and possibly improbable thing to assume. Still, note that when I give a candidate a state with less than 50% of the vote, I am just signifying that I believe it will be especially close there.

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Arkansas: “R>50” to “R>60”. I find it hard to believe that in this state Clinton would probably carry I’m projecting that Obama will fall short of 40% of the votes, but the polls are consistent about it. I’m sure the difference in how Clinton and Obama do here can be attributed to the subtle differences in their economic policies and attitudes about meeting with enemy leaders. I mean, what else would it be?

Michigan: “R>40” to “D>40”. Now I know the polls don’t support this change (yet), but Michigan Democrats tell a story here that I’m willing to believe: Michigan Democrats are fed up with the primary’s delegate fiasco and are taking it out on the candidates in the polls, but once the actual election comes around, they’ll fall in line behind Obama.

Nebraska: “Lean R” to “Strong R”. Obama’s western midwest luck is drying up, and the idea of Obama picking up any of Nebraska’s CDs is looking more and more like a pipe dream. Going by the new numbers, he might not even break 40% in the state. Even worse, I suspect new polls from the Dakotas might show similar results.

Nevada: “D>40” to “R>50”. Obama’s Southwestern lead is also gradually beaten eaten away at (except, curiously, in Colorado). If the election were held today, I think he’d just manage to hold New Mexico, but Nevada would probably break for McCain.

New Hampshire: “R>50” to “D>50”. This state is really bothering me. The polls show a statistical tie, but this is not where a New England state – ANY New England state – should stand in 2008. Rasmussen recently polled New Hampshire on the issues and found, among other things, that they give Bush a 27% approval rating and that 62% believe withdrawing from Iraq should be a higher priority than "winning" in Iraq. New Hampshire handed Bush victory in 2000 and then tried to take it back in 2004 – I just don’t think it will make the same mistake again.

Pennsylvania: “R>40” to “D>50”. Working-class Pennsylvania voters are rushing to prove that they’re not bitter at all and don’t cling to a thing. See, pundits? It was just a brilliant campaign strategy all along.

This month’s edition of Obama vs McCain “if the election were held today” finds Obama at what I can only hope we’ll look back on as the lowest point of his campaign. I was wrong about the Reverend Wright scandal: it’s done real damage, and it doesn’t seem to be going away. Far more troubling to me than the scandal itself is the way Obama is handling it: “Let’s rise above these manufactured political issues” is, well, John Kerry talk. If the GOP can stick Obama with the lasting image of an out-of-touch, intellectual elitist – which they appear to be of the verge of doing – then McCain will win the election.

At the time of this writing, Gallup and Rasmussen have been in agreement for several days (if the fact that “several days” seems like a long-term poll trend doesn’t show that I’m watching the polls too closely, I don’t know what will) that McCain is beating Obama nationally by a sizable margin. I never thought I’d see the day when Clinton would fare better against McCain than Obama, but I believe it has arrived.

Even though Obama is in a bit of trouble right now, the electoral landscape doesn’t favor McCain too strongly. If Obama can just carry the states I have him winning here and swing Michigan and Pennsylvania (which is far from an impossible feat – in fact, I bet many will scowl at my giving them to McCain in the first place), he’ll win.

Finally, I should add that I tried to use recent polling to determine all of the states, but that I kept McCain’s recent alleged 5-6 pt. national margin of victory in mind when I did it. Thus, if polling from the last month consistently showed a state to be a tie, I probably gave it to McCain, and I expect fresh polling from the state (provided it comes in the coming days, before everything changes again) to reflect a McCain upswing, barring a special circumstance that would affect the state individually.

Okay, enough babbling.

Changes from last month’s prediction and explanations for them:

Indiana: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. One of the few bright spots in Obama’s downturn: there have now been enough polls out of Indiana to confirm that Obama’s momentum here is more than a mirage. I have a lot of trouble picturing the state actually going Democratic come November, but at least it’s in play.

Kansas: “Lean R” to “Strong R”. I knew it was too good to be true: Now that Kansas knows Obama is one o’ them intellectuals who probably believes in evolution, McCain is a lock to win it.

Maine: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. Obama is thoroughly appealing to Maine’s independent spirit. He has very little chance of losing here, even in the second congressional district.

Massachusetts: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. As predicted, now that Obama is (kind of) the front-runner, the Massachusetts polls are making more sense.

Minnesota: “Tossup” to “Lean D.” The recent polls numbers in Minnesota are undeniable, but with the Republican convention being held there and the lingering chance of Pawlenty becoming McCain’s veep, a successful GOP power-grab for this state is not out of the question.

Nevada: “D>50” to “D>40”. I’m only making this change to show how close I now believe things are in Nevada, and, in fact, all three southwest swing states (the other two being New Mexico and Colorado). Obama maintains the slightest of edges for now, but these three states that voted narrowly for Bush might be showing their Republican colors very soon.

New Hampshire: “D>50” to “R>50”. The polling indicating Obama has suffered a New Hampshire collapse is also undeniable. I remember pundits discussing that Obama didn’t do as well as predicted against Hillary largely because independents voted in the Republican primary for McCain. I’m willing to bet McCain has an edge among independent voters in New Hampshire now, and that’s one hell of an important voting bloc in this state.

New Jersey: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Yes, this one is largely inspired by those wonderful hacks at Monmouth University. Still, there’s real reason to believe Obama is picking up steam here.

Pennsylvania: “D>40” to “R>40”. Herein lies Obama’s most severe blow: I honestly believe that if the election were held today, we’d see a slim McCain victory in Pennsylvania. It’s nothing some aggressive campaigning (or a Hillary endorsement that isn’t coming anytime soon) wouldn’t cure, but it’s something he needs to get on. The Democrats who believe Pennsylvania will default to the Dems in November no matter what the polls say need a harsh reality check.

West Virginia: “Lean R” to “Strong R”. Clinton could turn West Virginia into a swing state, but Obama simply can’t; especially not now. This state is looking more and more like a candidate for R>60.

Obama vs McCain, take three.

What a difference a month has made. The Reverend Wright "scandal" has done some real damage to Obama, but he's already on the upswing from it (it's hard for one scandal to do any lasting damage in today's mudslinging 24-hour cable news world -- I suspect by the end of this, each candidate will be an alleged in-the-closet Atheist racist serial child molester). A Gallup poll released today had McCain leading Obama by 1 point, and that statistical tie is very consistent with recent state polling. More than ever, it's anybody's game.

In this scenario, McCain wins, but honestly, if the election were held today, I have no idea who would pull it off.

Changes from last month’s prediction and explanations for them:

Alabama: “R>50” to “R>60”. High Southern black turnout or not, Alabama has made its reservations about voting for Obama quite clear. Regrettably, he’ll do just as bad as Kerry here.

Alaska: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Alaska is always a bit of a mystery. It has a long history of voting for GOP presidential candidates, but it also loves independent candidates, and polls have shown Obama has great independent appeal. Plus, with Ted Stevens and Frank Murkowski running around up there, Alaska might finally be getting fed up with the GOP.

Arkansas: “Tossup” to “Strong R”. It’s quite a jump to make, but Arkansas clearly wants nothing to do with Obama. Even Clinton is losing her edge here.

Connecticut: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. There was a lot of talk early on about how a McCain or a Giuliani could make Connecticut into a potential Republican pickup. Polls have made it clear that while this may be possible against Clinton, for whatever reason, it simply isn’t against Obama.

Hawaii: “D>50” to “D>60”. If Obama is the nominee, Hawaii will shape up to be one of the strongest Dem states in the Union, and its citizens will turn out in droves to vote for their home-grown hero.

Illinois: “D>50” to “D>60”. Obama is Illinois’s home-grown hero, too. Makes me think the most electable man in the country would be one who had lived at least a year in each state.

Kentucky: “R>50” to “R>60”. Like Arkansas, Kentucky is a should-be swing state in which McCain will utterly crush Obama. I’m not gonna say it’s a racism thing; I’m just gonna think it really hard.

Maryland: “Lean D” to “Solid D”. Like in the South, I project a high black voter turnout in Maryland. The main difference is that here, it will actually matter.

Michigan: “D>50” to “R>40” and “Lean D” to “Tossup”. Nowhere was the recent damage done to Obama more noticeable than Michigan. To make things worse, anyone who remembers back to the 2000 Republican Primaries knows Michigan is pretty fond of McCain. Michigan is now a very important coin toss.

Minnesota: “Lean D” to “Tossup”. Another damage site, but Obama is salvaging this one already.

Missouri: “D>40” to “R>50” and “Tossup” to “Lean R”. I pin this, too, on the recent controversy…as well as Missouri’s proximity to trouble-makers like Kansas and Arkansas.

Montana: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Dems have always been able to perform well in Montana…if they’re the right kind of Dem. Obama is looking like he just might be that kind of Dem.

Nebraska: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. I never would have guessed it, but we’ve got a real race happening in Nebraska. I can’t get my homes up too high after the Dem caucus here, though (remember those whole tri-county areas where like 5 people caucused total?). Still, a state to watch.

Nevada: “D>40” to “D>50”. There’s no reason to believe Obama won’t capture the majority of votes here (given a scenario of minimal third-party activity). His lead, though small, is consistent.

North Carolina: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. I would have expected the Carolinas to be following in the company of Alabama and Kentucky and Arkansas, but they’re holding their own ground. Neither is a good bet for a Dem pickup, but neither is a lost cause.

North Dakota: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. According to the one poll we’ve all seen, Obama has the lead here. This is me not getting my hopes up.

Ohio: “D>50” to “R>50”. I probably never should have given Obama Ohio to begin with. Though I give McCain the slight edge now, it’s still about as swingy as swing states get.

Oregon: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Obama is showing a consistent lead and Oregon has gone Dem for five presidential elections in a row.

Pennsylvania: “R>50” to “D>40”. Obama is gaining ground against both Clinton and McCain in Pennsylvania. Right now he and McCain are neck-and-neck, but I believe Pennsylvania will find its way to embracing Obama. It’s pretty vital to Obama’s victory that it does.

South Carolina: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. See North Carolina.

South Dakota: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. And wherever North Dakota went, South was reasonably sure to follow.

Vermont: “D>50” to “D>60”. It’s finally Vermont’s turn to break the 60% mark. The state just adores Obama, and I predict it will be his strongest state in New England.

Washington: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Same reasoning as Oregon.

West Virginia: “Tossup” to “Lean R”. Clinton would probably carry West Virginia, but it looks like Obama is going to have no such luck.

Obama vs McCain, take two.

As I was hoping for and expected, once Obama became the front-runner, the horrible McCain vs Obama polls righted themselves. If the election were held today, we would have one hell of a close election -- as close as Bush vs Kerry, if not closer. This map follows a combination of polls and common sense. Any of the tossup states could be easily swung; it's anyone's game.

Changes from last month’s prediction and explanations for them:

Alabama: “R>60” to “R>50”. The South will surely pick McCain over Obama, but a predicted high black voter turnout in the Southern states coupled with Obama’s swinging Virginia into the tossup category leads me to believe McCain will stay just below the 60% mark.

California: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. The new Survey USA that has Obama up by 27 makes my ever having doubted California look mighty foolish. I’m still waiting to have the same embarrassment/relief about Massachusetts.

Florida: “Tossup” to “Lean R”. This is just not Obama’s state. I could point to a lot of potential reasons McCain might be polling so well against Obama in this alleged swing state, but I think the real answer is pretty obvious: Florida has way more old people than black people. (Sorry, I’ll behave now)

Kansas: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Obama is polling exceptionally well in Kansas, given that he’s a Democrat and Kansas is Kansas. Unfortunately, I don’t expect this trend to last, but for now it goes to Lean.

Michigan: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Obama is polling just as well here over McCain as Clinton previously was over Giuliani. Michigan is voting for a Democrat, practically regardless of who that Democrat is.

Minnesota: “R>40” to “D>50” and “Tossup” to “Lean D”. What a difference a few weeks has made here in terms of polling. To everyone who will say I should have seen this coming, I can only agree.

Mississippi: “R>60” to “R>50”. Same reasoning as Alabama.

New Hampshire: “R>50” to “D>50”. After months of very close polling in most reasonable Dem vs GOP match-ups, Rasmussen puts Obama with an actual, statistically significant lead over McCain. Good enough for me.

New Jersey: “Lean D” to “Tossup”. McCain is as well received in New Jersey now as Giuliani was at the height of his popularity, and that’s a factor that shouldn’t be ignored.

New Mexico: “R>50” to “D>50”. The polls are inconsistent, but give a slight edge to Obama. Looks like McCain’s appeal stops at the Arizona border…if it even extends that far. Still, to McCain’s credit, he’s the only Republican who ran in this thing with any chance in hell of carrying this state; the others were in a contest to see who could alienate the most Hispanic voters the fastest.

New York: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. Much like New Jersey, McCain is as well received here as Giuliani was at the height of his popularity. And much like Giuliani, McCain has no chance in hell of actually carrying New York.

Ohio: “R>50” to “D>50”. This state doesn’t know what it wants. You’d think they would have clearly learned their lesson after 2004, but I guess not (you’re not off the hook either, Florida). I’d still prefer Clinton’s chances here over Obama’s, but as things stand, I’m projecting Ohio for Obama. I’m 50.0000001% sure of it.

Texas: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Like with Kansas, I don’t quite dare believe my eyes, but for now polls are consistently showing Obama is an actual contender here.

Virginia: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. This is quite possibly the most optimistic poll turn-around of all, because Virginia is quasi-Southern. It’ll be as close as the overall election, but I’m keeping it in McCain’s column on on the basis that Virginia hasn’t voted for a Dem for President since LBJ. It’s definitely trending in the Dems’ direction, though.

Since things are looking up for Obama and McCain is a lock for the nomination, this is my first attempt at pitting them against one another. This map is based foremost on recent polling data, and I know it has some oddities, such as Obama carrying Colorado and Nevada while losing New Mexico and McCain taking Minnesota while Obama swings Missouri. I really can't explain these, except to point to the polls.

I do think we're going to see an upturn in Obama's polling numbers...we're seeing it already, in fact, and the fact that the most recent Colorado polling is days old while the most recent New Mexico polling is weeks old may be very telling in the way things will ultimately swing.

I'd like to break off from the current numbers and try to paint a picture of where I believe things will stand in November, but I just don't know. McCain is a very wise choice for the GOP, and puts states into play that otherwise would be Dem locks, but Obama is no lightweight and, at this point, has the momentum advantage.

Ideally, the ultra right-wing nuts who are livid at McCain getting the nomination will field their own candidate, split the Republican vote, and make things a lock for the Dems. Oh, what a fantasy that would be...

Clinton vs Giuliani, take three. In this scenario, Richardson is on Clinton's ticket, while Giuliani picks Huckabee. This new version begins the de-2004-ification of my maps, and is the first to be backed up by actual poll data in most states. Clinton is faring better than I ever would have expected in the northern South, while Giuliani is doing a little damage in New England. All things considered, the polls are pointing increasingly toward an electoral victory for Clinton, but with all the tossup states an electoral landslide for either candidate isn't out of the question. With Clinton in the race, the popular vote is gonna be close, regardless of how the electoral vote turns out.

And to those of you who told me I had WV wrong in my last couple predictions, all I can do is concede.

My updated Clinton/Richardson v Giuliani/Thompson scenario where things go a good deal better for Clinton. I still believe Giuliani is a strong candidate and Clinton a divisive one, but in the end I really believe discontentment with the Republican Party will win out.

Percentages and confidence levels have been tweaked a bit. I gave up on my Louisiana shifting Dem pipe dream, and acknowledged the Dems have a fighting chance in WV (though I still believe VA is more likely to shift over).

This is something like what Clinton/Richardson vs Giuliani/Thompson vs assorted third-party candidates that rack up arond 3% of the vote combined would look like if held today. Of course, by November 2008 all kinds of things will have changed. Clinton has been dragged through the mud by her opponents for the past 15 years, while the anti-Giuliani attack machine was only released on the market a couple months ago. As with every good election campaign, by election day we should have heard so many ridiculous ugly claims about both candidates that we're tempted to start a write-in campaign, so that should level the playing field somewhat, and possibly even give Clinton an edge. Also, Bloomberg could show up to the party, rendering me dazed and confused and unable to make any more prediction maps.

In this map, strong means the candidate won by 10% or more of the vote, lean means he won by 5-9.99% of the vote, and toss means he won by less than 5% of the vote.

Of course, all speculation this early is pointless. When we're all watching the presidential debate between Mike Gravel and Ron Paul, I'll feel mighty foolish.

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