Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:32

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	291
Rep	247
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	291
Rep	185
Ind	0
Tos	62

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+5	0	+39	0	0	0	20	2	252	+39
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-39	26	3	247	-39
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
96	47	41	4	4

Analysis

State Previous Current Reasoning
IN R40L R50L It looks like McCain will reach 50% here.
MT R50S R50L Obama is catching up here, but I don’t think he’ll pull off a win.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 31

State Previous Current
AK R60S R50S
AZ R60S R50S
CA D50S D60S
DE D50S D60S
IN R50S R40L
NV R40T D50L
PA D50S D50L
TN R60S R50S
ME CD1 D50S D60S

Version: 30

State Previous Current
DE D60S D50S
DC D90S D80S
ID R70S R60S
KS R60S R50S
KY R60S R50S
LA R60S R50S
MA D50S D60S
MT R50L R50S
NH D50L D50S
NM D50L D50S
NY D50S D60S
NC R50L R50T
ND R50S R50L
VA R50T D50L
NE R60S R50S
NE CD1 R70S R60S
NE CD2 R60S R50S

Version: 29

State Previous Current
AK R70S R60S
AR R60S R50S
CO D40L D50S
CT D60S D50S
DE D50S D60S
FL R50S R50T
MI D40T D50S
MN D50L D50S
MO R50S R50L
NH R40T D50L
NC R50S R50L
PA D50L D50S
ME1 D60S D50S

Version: 28

I've never been one for ties, but I think MI may go Obama, and that gives us 269-269. That means we have President Obama.

Version: 27

Montana for Obama was a stupid prediction. Back to R50L.

Version: 26

With Ron Paul now on the ballot in MT, I say it'll go D40T instead of R50L.

Version: 25

State Previous Current
CO D50L D40L
CT D50S D60S
ID R60S R70S
IA D50L D50S
LA R50S R60S
MI D50T R40T
MN R50S D50L
MO R50L R50S
MT R50S R50L
NV R40L R40T
NJ D50T D50S
NM D50T D50L
ND R60S R50S
OH R50T R40T
RI D50S D60S
SD R60S R50S
TN R50S R60S
UT R70S R60S
VA R50L R50T
WI D50L D50S

Edited to fix several (or many) errors that I had (MN going Republican????) - so this is the fully corrected version (I think). Also, I switched MI back to McCain (for now).

Version: 24

Updated to reflect McCain picking Palin instead of Romney (and I had meant to change PA and OH over before):

State Previous Current
AK R60S R70s
MA R50T D50S
MI R50L D50T
OH R50L R50T
PA R50L D50L

Version: 23

State Previous Current
MN R50T D50S
MO R50S R50L
NV D40L R40L
NM D50L D50T
NC R50L R50S
OH R50T R50L
OR D50L D50S
WA D50L D50S
CO D50T D50L

Version: 22

Just a few minor changes:

State Previous Current
MO R40T R50S
NV D50L D40L
VA R50T R50L
WA D50L D50S

Version: 21

MN from D50S to R50T

Version: 20

McCain/??? vs. Obama/???

State Previous Current
AR R50T R60S
CO R50T D50T
FL R60S R50S
IA D40T D50L
KY R50S R60S
MD R50T D50S
MA D50L R50T
MI R50T R50L
MN D60S D50S
MO D40T R40T
MT R60S R50S
NV D50T D50L
NJ D50L R50T
NY D60S D50S
NC R50T R50L
OR D40L D50L
PA D40T R50L
TX R60S R50S
VT D50S D60S
WA D50S D50L
WV R50T R50S
WI R40T D50L
ME1 D50S D60S
ME2 D50L D50S

Version: 19

WI from D50L to R40T

Version: 18

McCain/??? vs. Obama/???. No major 3rd party candidate.

State Previous Current
AZ R50S R60S
CO R50L R50T
FL R50L R60S
HI D50S D60S
IA R40T D40T
LA R50L R50S
MD D50S R50T
MA D50S D50L
MN D50L D60S
NV D40T D50T
NY D50S D60S
UT R80S R70S
VA R50L R50T
WA D50L D50T
WI D40T D50L

Version: 17

Rom/Huck v. Edw/?????

NC D40T --> R50T

Version: 16

State Previous Current
AR R40T R50T
MO R40T D40T
MT R50S R60S
NV R50L D40T
NM D40L D50L
OH R40T R50T
SD R50S R60S
WA D40L D50L

Version: 15

MI from R50L to R50T

Version: 14

State Previous Current
AR R40L R40T
OR D50L D40L
WA D50L D40L
WV R50S R50T
WI R40T D40T

Version: 13

OK - I strengthened up some states - got tired of keeping them @ 40%

State Previous Current
LA R40L R50L
MN D40T D50L
NV R40L R50L
OR D40L D50L
VA R40L R50L

Version: 12

OK - I want MO back in the Rep. category. I really like the whole Romney/Hucakbee idea - and I think that this would give Romney MO barely - so we'll make it R40T for now - but it may change back - we'll see.

Version: 11

State Previous Current
WI D40T R40T

Version: 10

State Previous Current
NC R40T D40T
AR D30L R40L

Adding Huckabee as Romney's running mate - gives AR to the Reps, and I'm changing my mind back to Edwards winning NC.

Version: 9

State Previous Current
D.C. D80S D90S
LA R50S R40L

Version: 8

State Previous Current
IA R50L R40T
LA R60S R50S
ME (at large) D50L D50S
NE (at large) R70S R60S (I forgot to change that when I gave up on Hagel)
NE (CD 2) R70S R60S
NE (CD 3) R70S R60S

Version: 7

State Original New
AR R50L D30L
IA R50S R50L
MO R50L D30T
NV R50L R40L
NC D40L R40T

AR and MO, 2 strong Bible belt states don't like Romney's Mormonism, so some defect to a 3rd Party candidate, leaving the Dems. an advantage to get around 38%.

Version: 6

NH from D40T to R40t
NC from D50S to D40L

Version: 5

Alright - I fixed the CA error, making it Strong Dem.
Changed NM to Dem.
Changed MN to Dem.

Version: 4

Romney vs. Edwards - I gave up on Hagel.

Version: 3

Alright - I took WI off the Rep. side and lowered my confidence in some R and D states and increased it for LA.

Version: 2

OK - now this is redone after I corrected my Edwards is from SC to NC thingy. All good now - thank you, padfoot.

Version: 1

This is my HONEST non-partisan opinion - predicting a Hagel vs. Edwards election - what I'm thinking will happen as of now - even if this is NOT - it's gonna be Romney v. Edwards - and in that case, it may be a little different, but generally teh same.

Version History

Member Comments

By: applemanmat (L-VA) 2008-11-24 @ 18:25:37
I guess the polls were right after all. You should've gave Obama a bigger victory. Romney 2012!!!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	23	74	T	115
2022 Senate	34/35	31/35	65/70	92.9%	1	1	3	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	1	1	5	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	6	1	T	118
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	1	6	179	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	1	4	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	6	51	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	4	14	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%	1	1	42	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	26/36	56/72	77.8%	1	3	94	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	2	40	T	149
2016 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	2	1	35	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	23/34	54/68	79.4%	1	1	6	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	2	1	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	11	8	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	24/36	57/72	79.2%	3	5	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	18/36	47/72	65.3%	3	1	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	6	17	T	153
2012 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	7	1	115	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	18/33	48/66	72.7%	5	1	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	22/52	65/104	62.5%	37	-	22	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	1	332	79	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	16	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	8	0	17	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	6	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	45/56	96/112	85.7%	32	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	14	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	10	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	26/52	68/104	65.4%	30	-	20	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	19/49	60/98	61.2%	31	-	11	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	4	21	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	10	2	232	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	14	1	36	T	312
2004 President	51/56	25/56	76/112	67.9%	24	4	1441	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	900/994	637/994	1537/1988	77.3%

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