Comments History
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hideVersion: 43
Republican Ticket: John McCain (AZ)/Sarah Palin (AK)
Democratic Ticket: Barack Obama (IL)/Joe Biden (DE)
So we are almost to the end of the presidential election. This is my new map and it is identical, as far as states won, to my version 41 map. My thoughts on this race have changed very little even with Obama's supposed "surge" in the media/beltway polls and the turmoil on Wall Street. I still find the race very competitive and very close. I think that it could go either way. If it breaks for McCain this is the most likely case. Either way there is a core group of states that will ensure either candidate recieves at least 200 electoral votes and I'd expect a difference of no more than 3% to 4% in the popular vote. That could change but since its the view I've held since May I'd say that is how I'm likely to continue to see it.
As for the states, I've already talked about core states. I continue to feel the election comes down to ten battlegrounds - New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Pennslyvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. That makes a total of five states that need defending and five left for expansion by both sides from the 2004 map.
McCain Defensive/Obama Offensive - Colorado, Ohio, New Mexico, Virginia, and Nevada
Obama Defensive/McCain Offensive - Pennslyvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
All these states present opertunities for the candidates. I think that given McCain's maverick streak, excitement in the GOP base for Palin, the ticket's appeal to suburbia/rural voters, white voter turnout/racial polarization (unfortunately), appeal to Reagan Democrats, and possible improved margins in the Jewish, hispanic, and union votes that the GOP ticket could play very well in Ohio, Pennslyvania, and New Hampshire. On cultural issues Michigan and Minnesota are possibilities but for now I'd give Obama an edge in both.
Obama has his options too and could win more than I think. He already plays well in Iowa, a state that voted for Dukakis and Gore so I can believe it voting for a candidate like Obama. New Mexico is another likely flipper. I still say Colorado can be held in place and I'm not that worried about Virginia. And if the state is not a tossup on my map I'm not worried about it either regardless of what the polls say.
So there it is. I'd like to note that this map will be my only map for the month of October. I shall update my prediction one last time on the day prior to the election, November 3rd. That will make it my 44th verison for the 44th president who will be elected the next day. It will be based on all my thoughts and data that I have seen since the primaries. Polls will be consulted but it will still largely be based off candidates and issues. Both my congressional and gubinatorial maps will also be updated at this time.
One more personal note. As some of you may or may not have noticed my presence on the boards has declined signifigantly since the GOP convention. This is primary because I have been so busy with school, work, research, and my personal life. I don't expect it to get much better between now and the election but I will post as often as possible. So if I don't respond right away, don't fret, I'll get to you.
McCain/Palin 2008!
Palin/Jindal 2012!
Version: 42
Republican Ticket: John McCain (AZ)/Sarah Palin (AK)
Democratic Ticket: Barack Obama (IL)/Joe Biden (DE)
So its all come down to this. After all the talk of how there would be a changing electoral map we find ourselves looking once again at most of the classical swing states and a couple new ones. The game plans for each campign at this point is relativily simple. There are as of now ten key battleground states. Five are states that Bush won in 2004 and the other five are states that Kerry won in 2004. McCain and Obama will have to work to defend the five their party held in the previous election while trying to make gains into the other five that where lost last time.
McCain Targets/Obama Defense - New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennslyvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
Obama Targets/McCain Defense - Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.
Now two of these states I expect to solidify over the coming weeks. Virginia for McCain and Minnesota for Obama. The remaining eight states represent areas in which either candidate may expand. I personally I'm feeling good about McCain's prospects. The Rust Belt is an extremely attractive target and presents the best opertunities for pick ups. Should these states fall early on Election Day I think the western states will also head in our direction. Then again we could just as easily hold our own out west.
The basic stratigy is simiple. McCain must hold the Key 2000 Bush states. This will give him a total of 274 electoral votes and the White House. Note this is without Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. These are the bare minimum states to be won. Any extra states McCain picks up will be padding. For Obama he must carry all the Gore/Kerry states and add one, most likely Colorado, to his column.
As of now this is how I see the race. My current opinions are that McCain will win the presidency, Democrats will expand their margins in the Senate, and the House is an unknown as so many of those races are local. I'll do another update probably after all the debates towards the later half of October. Till then this is where I think it all stands.
Version: 41
Republican Ticket: John McCain (AZ)/Sarah Palin (AK)
Democratic Ticket: Barack Obama (IL)/Joe Biden (DE)
Now that the tickets are assembled and the Post-Labor Day general election campign begun its time for a new map. I'm increasingly optimistic about the GOP prospects for retaining the White House in the fall. The race is currently in a dead heat. If all the press, Middle East/European tours, and the convention speech couldn't seal the deal for Obama then I think the race will remain competitve till the very end.
So here is the game plan that I see. The real battle for the election is going to be out West and in the Rust Belt. Obama has done well amoung tradition Democratic base states and Palin is sure to help McCain lock up most of the GOP base states as the party is now unified, excited, and involved. This helps McCain a lot. All he really has to do is hold all the Key Bush 2000 states minus NH. This would give him 274 electoral votes and the White House.
Key Bush 2000 State for a McCain Victory - Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, and Alaska.
States in which McCain needs to play defense - Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio. Maybe some in Missouri and Florida as well.
States in which McCain needs to be attacking strongly - New Mexico, Pennslyvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. These four are within reach and could provide some serious padding for the McCain campign electorally. He could spend some time in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota but I wouldn't put too many resources into them.
So as we see we are reduced to more or less the same battlegrounds and a similar map to the ones we've seen in 2000 and 2004. If I where the McCain camp this would be my plan and in fact they are following something very similar. He and his team are focusing mostly on the West and Rust Belt. I think this is a great idea. I would encourage him to send Palin out to do a tour of all the Key 2000 Bush states in order to sure up GOP and indepednent support. Then keep hammering away at the swing states.
Onward to November. McCain/Palin 2008.
Version: 40
McCain/Palin vs. Obama/Biden
Well the election is shaping up in much the way I thought it would. Its getting very tight and competitive. With Obama suspending advertising in the seven "red" states he targeted and McCain not really making a huge effort in places like the Pacific Northwest I'd say this election will once again be decided by a hand full of swing states. This year those states seem to be Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennslyvania, Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Which means the main battlegrounds this year are the West and Midwest. I really don't expect either side to get more than about 300 EV.
Having said all that I think that McCain is doing better than I expected. He's actually listening to the base of his party while walking the fine line for independents and crossover Democrats. In fact his building a coalition of Republicans (all branches of the party base included), Hillary voters, Independents, moderates, and conservative Democrats. He is doing very well amoung the white vote and I expect him to do better amoung the Hispanic, Jewish, and female voters than past candidates of the GOP. I also happen to believe McCain is right on a number of the issues such as sucess in Iraq, confronting Russia/Iran, national security, energy, taxes, spending, and abortion.
No offense but I see Obama and Biden as the typical East Coast liberal ticket that won't sell well in the Heartland. Doesn't mean the election won't be competitive but I think McCain can win this one. Luckiest politican I've seen in years.
Version: 39
Time for a new map for a new month. I had planned on waiting until the tickets where selected before making this map but I tired of how long it was taking. Therefor I have come up with my own tickets and built the map accordingly. So here they are:
Republicans: John McCain (AZ)/Sarah Palin (AK)
Democrats: Barach Obama (IL)/Tim Kaine (VA)
**Please note that no polls where harmed in the making of this map. I'm speculating and predicting an election three months away with an unknown set of events between now and then. The race is currently tight and the map reflects a break towards McCain. Polls will play a more active roll in my maps beginning in the month of October.**
I expect Senator Obama to do extremely well within the black community, young voters, the anti-war crowd, and upper class white liberals. However, the youth vote is still smaller percentage-wise in the total electorate as compared to the older voters. Kaine's fluency in Spanish may aid Obama in keeping a majority of the hispanic vote, of course he'll probably keep it with or without him as VP. I do think McCain will do well with latinos, somewhere in the 40% range. Kaine does add more experience and moderation to the ticket but still does not add anything in the foriegn policy realm.
I expect Senator McCain to do well with whites, men, Reagan/Hillary Democrats, indepedents, women over 40, and older voters. He may well be able to increase his standing with Jewish voters as well. Women may become an important factor, especially if Palin is on his ticket. With the surge working, McCain should make his central issues energy, taxes, and national security. Palin will also help sure up the base and will be liked by the evangelical and fiscal conservatives alike. Plus she is also a Washington-outsider and reformer. I also think she could help tip suburban voters in McCain's direction given how evenly split they seem at the moment.
As for Congress the GOP has a real opertunity with energy. Already they are being labeled the new Do-Nothing or No-Drilling Congress. I think that this is a big issue for my party and could aid us greatly along with any coattails McCain may have, if he wins. I could see the Congress ending up with the House at 228 Democrats and 207 Republicans while the Senate is not so kind seeing the GOP at 47 seats at best.
But its a long way to November and we still have a lot to do before we get there. I think the Republicans have a real chance to make a come back in this election similar to the way the Democrats did in 1948. Truman was unpopular and down double-digits to Dewey in the summer, a do-nothing congress, many issues both domestic and foreign, a tribulant global climate, etc. But we'll see. I like to stay positive.
This map will remain until I know who is on the tickets for both sides.
Version: 38
McCain vs Obama
No polls where harmed in the making of this map.
Version: 37
Well the primaries are over and we have our two candidates - John McCain and Barack Obama. What a sad choice for the American people, a couple of duds in my opinion. But that is the choice we are left with. Even if you include the other candidates from both sides we had a pretty sad field in 2008. But the American people are strong and I have every confidence we will survive whomever the next president is.
In all honesty this election is very similar in my opinion to 1976. We have Obama looking very much like Carter, McCain our modern-day Ford, and a very angry electorate in a turbulant period of history.
Now the main battlegrounds setting up this year seem to be pretty obvious at this point. Despite the fact that McCain is a blood blue Rockefeller he will still do well in the GOP heartland - the South, Plains, and Interior West. Despite that Obama has troubles with Hillary/Reagan Democrats he'll still do well in the Northeast and West Coast.
So that leaves us with two main tossup regions - the Southwest and Midwest - in addition to Pennslyvania and New Hampshire. It is my belief that the following states will be the most contested this year: Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennslyvania. We shall see what the election brings. Both candidates have troubles with their bases and I think these battlegrounds will decided the election. It may not be real close but at this point I don't see either breaking the 300 electoral vote mark.
The true rebuilding of the Republican party and the furthering of the conservative movement will not begin until the next election cycle, 2008 is all about damage control. I don't think we will be smashed but I'm also not expecting any miracles outside of something really big happening, some October suprise, or what have you.
So here's to 2010 and 2012!
Version: 36
Normally with a candidate like John McCain and given the damage that Bush has done to the Republican Party I'd be worried. Bush's blood blue policies, lack of leadership, and abandonment of conservative principles have royalily pissed off the base of the GOP. Nor did we have any good candidates running this year as Bush could not pick a young VP. Along with cross over Democrats, the Rockefellers have hijack the GOP under John McCain while a divided base looked for a savoir.
Our lack of adherence to GOP values and Reagan principles cost us in 2006, and I fear it will only get worse in the congressional races this fall. Fortunately I believe the Democrats are running a very damaged candidate in Barak Obama. The long race with Hillary, his questionable associations, liberal policies, limited time in Washington, and saddly race will all play a factor in this election.
I feel that Obama is like some of those that came before him: McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry. And I really think he'll have trouble with some white voters. Never good in tight elections. McCain can win with a coalition of Hillary Democrats, blue dog/conservative Democrats, independents, moderates, Rockefellers, and members of the base that won't sit at home while Obama gets elected. But a depressed base could hurt even though I think we'll have enough to win.
McCain's strength will be where all GOP strength is: the south, intermountain west, and the plains. I also believe he'll do quiet well in the Rust Belt. Obama will play well in the northeast, west coast and parts of the upper midwest. So that is where I see the race at this time. It can all change as we move into the fall.
Version: 35
Things on the forum have been a little stressful as of late, and since the Democratic race is going to roll on for sometime to come, I thought we'd have a little fun. I was inspired to do this map based on the thought that the Democrats split here similar to the division that occured in 1860. So below I'll lay out my senerio for our 2008 becomes reminancent of 1860. But first the tickets:
Republicans: John McCain (AZ)/Mark Sanford (SC)
Democrats: Barak Obama (IL)/Tim Kaine (VA)
Independent-Democrat: Hillary Clinton (NY)/Evan Bayh (IN)
Libertarian: George Barr(GA)/Mike Huckabee (AR)
Alright, so in the end Hillary Clinton never gets enough delegates, popular votes, or super delegates to defeat Barak Obama. In mid-July Howard Dean gathers the super delegates and after several rounds of discussion gets them to just barely put Obama over the top with 2,031 delegates total. The Democratic establishment completely abandons the Clintons and declares Obama the winner of the nomination fight that began seven months ago. Obama is nominated officially in Denver and chooses Virginia govenor Tim Kaine as his VP.
Hillary and loyal Clinton supporters are furious. Dean has forced the suposibly free super delegates to choose in what is considered a backroom deal. And nothing is done about Michigan or Florida, both of whom are left out of the DNC convention in Denver. So the Clintons organize the Independent Demcrats and hold their own convention in Philadelphia where Hillary is nominated. Senator Evan Bayh is choosen as VP.
Meanwhile John McCain continues a quiet campign and selects South Carolina govenor Mark Sanford as VP. This is a base acceptible choice that helps easy tensions between the Rockefeller and Reagan wings of the party. But not everyone is pleased. Thus enters George Barr, the Libertarian candidate. Due to his loose in the GOP primary, Mike Huckabee joins the Libertarians. This draws support from social conservatives, especially in the south but only a minority. The majority continue to stay with the GOP. Still this is a strain on McCain's campign.
End Results:
McCain: 41%
Obama: 34%
Clinton: 18%
Barr: 7%
The states of Pennslyvania, Michigan, Colorado, Arkansas, Georgia, Virginia, New York, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, and Indiana become very nasty battle grounds. McCain could normally sweep up the divided Democrats but the weight of Barr/Huckabee hold him down in a number of places. But at the end of the day, with just barely enough electoral votes, McCain becomes the president by plurality.
Enjoy!
Version: 34
McCain vs. Obama
Possible McCain VPs: Michael Steele, Mark Sanford, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Pence, or Marsha Blackburn
Possible Obama VPs: Tim Kaine, Bill Richardson, Mike Easly, Janet Napoliteno, Tom Vilsack, or Ben Nelson
I think that Obama has some real western strength. I'm not too sure why at the moment only that he has it. The west is a bit more independent and a lot more competitive than it use to be. I think the same could be said about the Midwest where I think that McCain can run strong in the Rust Belt and Mit-Atlantic.
If I where McCain I would advise him on focusing all his attention on the Key Four - Michigan, Ohio, Pennslyvania, and Missouri. All of which are within his reach. Minnesota and Wisconsin are also in play for McCain. He's only real target in the Northeast ought to be New Hampshire. John could keep the west but he'll need to focus on Nevada, Colorado, and back east Virginia. The rest of the south should be pretty solid so that is one less GOP worry.
Obama can run strong in Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana are still out of reach. As are the plains states. I don't think he'll do well in Florida. But Virginia has some options for him. He'll be good in Iowa and Illinois. Most of the Northeast is his including Massachusetts which is no tossup.
So about 6 months to the election. Its going to get wild.
Version: 33
Republicans: John McCain(AZ)/Mitt Romney (MA)
Democrats: Barak Obama (IL)/Tim Kaine (VA)
I think that as this election rolls on it will get close. McCain has incredible opertunties but his bipartisanship efforts to run an "honorable" campign means to me that he won't fight like he needs to. He could win bigger but I think he's too much of a wimp and a moderate. But I still think he can win the election despite all that. He has strong cross over appeal to Reagan Democrats, moderates, and independents. I think he'll do well amoung blue-collar workers and hispanics.
He'll have to work to meet the base of his own party half way and he needs a good VP like Romney, Blackburn, Pence, Sanford, or Jindal. However I think that faced with either Obama or Hillary that most GOPers will see McCain for what he is: a place holder that is the lesser of two evils for the conservative cause. He needs us and his current efforts to reach out to us in the base show this. So we make the best of it.
I truely believe that this election will be decided in the Midwest. McCain has a good lock on most of the south and will run strong in the west. I think the key states he ought to focus his efforts on are Pennslyvania, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Colorado and Nevada should be top priority as well. If he has any time left after that then he can run to places like Maryland, New Mexico, Oregon, and the like.
Version: 32
Alright lately I've become a little more optimistic about the election this fall, mostly due to what I've seen out of the Democratic primaries. So this is the best case senerio for John McCain. To be honest I'm not sure who McCain will face in November but I think that either way he stands a fighting chance and here is why.
First off McCain, though I think it a wimpy move, has pledge to run a clean campign. He often talks about his respect for the Democrats, which is fitting since they have so much in common, but I digress. He is playing it smart by staying in the background, safely the GOP nominee while the in-fighting in the Democratic party continues to roll on unabaited.
His VP selection prior to our convention will be very important. My guess is that he either picks Romney or Sanford, both of which would be base acceptible. McCain already knows he needs conservatives to win which is why he is working to meet us half way. He is supporting making the tax cuts perminent, he's tough on national security, he says he knows the borders must be secure (will see how long that lasts), he'll be good on judges, he'll be good on spending/earmarks, he'll be more pro-life than the Democrats, and he's said he favors more nuclear power and refinaries.
As for the Democrats, I see them going to a brokered convention. With Hillary's high negatives, Obama's questional record, and a generally divided party it should prove to be an interesting convention indeed. I have no idea who will win. I have a guess but I'm going to keep it quite till later. Either way, no matter who is nominated, there will be a fall out. Lot of passionate supporters on each side that may well cry fowl. McCain will have a large crossover appeal and if the base turns out he can win.
I also think the House is up for grabs while the Senate remains safely Democratic with a gain of four seats, max. This is an anti-incumbent year. The people are pissed and pissed at DC. I think the races we're seen so far have shown this. Both parties are in for some suprises congressionally come the fall and where the pieces are going to land I don't know. But the House is in play in my opinion along with the White House.
So here it is, the best case McCain win. We'll just see how well he can do come November.
Version: 31
Alright as a loyal member of the Republican party and a conservative I have decided to put up a very best case senerio McCain map. I don't know if he can win right now or not. I'm more inclined to say no but we'll see what the next few months bring. We have three Democrats running currently so for the conservatives of America we really have no good choices. All we can hope and pray for is that McCain picks a good VP and stays strong on national defense. So here are the tickets:
Republicans: John McCain (AZ)/Sarah Palin (AK)
Democrats: Barak Obama (IL)/ Tim Kaine (VA)
Its tight all over the places but McCain manages to get just enough votes from independents, moderate Democrats, and the base of the GOP to pull off a win. Sarah Palin will greatly help with the base. She would be a great choice along with George Allen, Mike Pence, Michael Steele, Marsha Blackburn, Duncan Hunter, Mark Sanford, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Rick Santorum, JC Watts, JD Hayworth, someone! So we'll see what the next few months bring.
Again this is the best case senerio. I fear it will be much much worse. Time will tell.
Version: 30
Well to election 2008, its 1976 all over again.
For the Republicans we have John McCain, the moderate maverick senator of Arizona. McCain has some sever problems. He is not well like by the conservative grassroots Reagan base of the GOP. He is more in line with the moderate establishment Rockefeller just like Ford. He is old, slow, and his speaking abilities are clear but not that great. He is low on energy and does not inspire. Nor does it help that the American people are in a very anti-DC mood, bad for a beltwayer like McCain.
A very conservative VP might help him with the base and make the election tight. Possible candidates include Sanford, Hutchison, Jindal, Burr, Rice, Pence, Romney, and Allen. Unacceptible are Graham, Huckabee, and Lieberman. Crist and Pawlenty would likewise not be good choices as they are more moderate. McCain is going to have to throw conservatives a bone and it still may not help. The base is depressed.
Playing the role of Jimmy Carter is Barak Obama. This young man out Illinois has been in DC for only 3 years. He is preceieved as fresh and new. Dispite being the most liberal senator he attracks a lot of independents. Obama's speaking abilities are also second to none. The Democrat base is fired up and he can raise money in a very short amount of time. Some have said he is more of preacher than a leader which is another reminder of Carter.
To be fair I think McCain could do well with hispanics over Obama thus keeping Colorado, New Mexico, and Florida in his column. The Goldwater belt in the south is unlikely to stray as are the plains and intermountain states. He could do well in West Virginia with the military, seniors, and white voters. Ohio could also prove to be fertile ground. His maverick stance and Lieberman's aid may deliver him Connecticut and New Hampshire as Ford once did.
Obama could turn Nevada and solidify much of the midwest from Missouri to Wisconsin to Michigan. Pennsylanvia and much of the northeast are also safe. Virginia and Kentucky, depending on the VP and issues could prove to be swingers while Arkansas and its Democratic tradition could be revived. The Pacific Northwest should also give Obama little trouble.
So in the end we get a result very similar to 1976. What a depressing time for conservatives. We can either lose the general election or have our party taken over by the Rockefellers. Still lots of time left and I suppose in this race anything can happen. VP selection will be critical on both sides.
Hey sometimes it takes a Carter to get a Reagan.
Version: 29
Well that's it. We're done. Super Tuesday may not have totally settled things but it sure did set the trends to come. I could be wrong and we could get a brokered convention but I think McCain is the GOP nominee, and with that we've lost the election. Game over. I think that Obama may have set himself up to be the big winner and so here are the tickets for this map:
Republicans: John McCain (AZ)/Mike Huckabee (AR)
Democrats: Barak Obama (IL)/Mike Easley (NC)
McCain's coalition of moderates, independents, men, older voters, veterans, and hispanics may have been enough to get him the nomination but the rank and file party members and conservatives hate him. The base will still come out for local elections but they will not vote for McCain. Not to mention the fact that McCain does not inspire anyone. He's old and has a bad temper.
Obama on the other hand is full of energy and has not been in DC all that long. He represents hope and optmism. A strong running mate in Easley, former governor of North Carolina, will make him a formible candidate. Independents will flock to him and Democrats will turn out in large numbers. I also believe that some Republicans will vote for him too. With the conservative base largely staying out of it McCain is going to get crushed.
We Republicans have our worked cut out for us. We have a lot fo rebuilding to do in this party. We need to vote in local elections then regroup for 2010 and 2012. We can be a very effective minority and we will not be shut out of power. We'll be back. And now the Democrats have to preform. DC is a lot different from the campign trail and they won't get everything they want. They've been telling us they can govern better so lets see if they can do it. As a conservative I'm doubtful.
I also take no pleasure in sitting out the presidential race. I'll work on congressional races and the local election in my state but I won't vote for a Democrat nor McCain. No worries though, sometimes it takes a Carter to get a Reagan.
Version: 28
Since the GOP is finished this year because we are nominating McCain and because many conservatives refuse to except him I decided that I'd have a litte fun with my maps and do something interesting to reflect what could be for the 2008 election.
Democrats: Hillary Clinton (NY)/Evan Bayh (IN)
Republicans: John McCain (AZ)/ Mike Huckabee (AR)
Conservative Coalition: Rick Santorum (PA)/ JC Watts (OK)
McCain and Hillary go on to win big on Super Tuesday and lock up their parties nomination shortly there after. Its a real battle but they manage to hold off the future of the parties, i.e. Romney and Obama and thus preserve the status quo. Heavy in fighting in both parties combind with the anti-DC attitude of most Americans leaves the electorate in a particularly sour mood.
Rather than sit out the election, the conservatives of the Republican party unite to create a third party, the Conservative Coalition. The movement is meant to be a temporatery one that appeals to the whole of the Reagan coalition and conservatives so that they have someone to vote for in the fall. They select Rick Santorum from Pennsylvania as they're nominee at their convention in St Louis and JC Watts agrees to run as the VP.
Meanwhile Hillary and McCain battle it out for moderates and independent voters. Many far left liberals and die hard Obama fans find Hillary's win a tough pill to swallow and many in the anti-Clinton Democratic force consider sitting out the election. Blue dogs and men are particularly drawn to McCain's campign. Senators Bayh and Graham are selected as VPs.
Final Election Results:
Hillary Clinton 41%
John McCain 34%
Rick Santorum 25%
So while there will be high tension in the Democratic party it is nothing compared to the battle in the GOP. In the end conservatives decided to regroup and prepare for 2010, 2012, and working with the state and congressional minorities avablible to them.
Sometimes it takes a Carter to get a Reagan.
Version: 27
Well that's it, John McCain is the GOP nominee after his big win in Florida tonight, we're done. This reminds me of when we nominated Bob Dole. Welcome back Mrs. Clinton.....or Obama I don't really know just yet about that. Unless I see some sort of major turn around from conservatives we've lost this one. We could still win it with McCain, maybe, if we're facing Hillary since she'll drive the turn out of our base. I would hope its enough. But Obama will roll over the elderly McCain no question.
To my Democratic friends, congradulations and govern well. But don't get too comfortable, we'll be back.
Now to my fellow conservatives and Republicans we have only ourselves to blame. We can't nominate someone like this and expect to win. But its not all gloom and doom. I still believe we'll retain between 48 and 45 seats in the Senate and narrow the margins in the House to something like 210. We won't be shut out completely. Now its time to rebuild and regroup. We plan for the 2010 mid-terms after the people get to see the Democrats in action. We focus on grassroots efforts to get our party back into fighting shape.
Hey sometimes it takes a Carter to get a Reagan. We'll be back.
Version: 26
Alright due to popular and the fact that I too have gotten tired of scrolling down to read the over 500 posts of my previous map I have decided to create a new map based on the current Republican "frontrunner". Here are the tickets:
Republican: Mitt Romney/JC Watts
Democratic: Hillary Clinton/Tom Vilsack
I know that most of you will disagree with this assessment and that's okay. Have a good laugh at my expense if nothing else. The real flip flop issue I can find for Romney is on abortion. There are a few minor social issues that he had to compromise on due to the nature of being the govenor of the most liberal state in the union but overall I think his record and his current campign appeals to the Reagan coalition as a whole. As strong running mate like Watts would be a good choice.
I also don't think the mormon issue matters to most Christians. I've talked with a lot of people both on and off line and I have found relativily little resistance to Romney. In any case he'll be running against either a woman or a black man so I think bias might cancel out. And remember that anything can happen in the campign. But as of now he holds the most delegates, most votes, and most states in the GOP race. Also not the number of tossups here. I only left the strong base states as partisan because with no incumbent the red-blue is over. Candidates and issues will settle this election.
No polls were harmed in the making of this map and I know many of you think this is a pipedream. Maybe it is, maybe not. We'll see what the general election brings. Against Hillary I believe the conservative base can and will rally behind Romney. We'll see. If it looks bad I can always change the map later.
Version: 25
Merry Christmas everyone!
I have decided that since we are waist deep in the primaries and that everything is so up in the air right now that I would go ahead and do my dream map. Yes that's right and its a Christmas gift to all my fellow conservatives and Republicans. But of course I'm thinking of my Democratic friends as well. This is in no way what I expect next year but it is what I would love to see.
Republican Ticket: Rudy Giuliani (NY)/Condelezza Rice (AL)
Democratic Ticket: Barak Obama (IL)/Dennis Kucinich (OH)
Its an outstanding year for the GOP. Rudy sweeps across the country building a 50-state Republican party. He and Condi work to being hope and optimism to the people and campign on national security, taxes/spending, energy independence, judges, and immigration. Conservativism wins the day as Mrs. Clinton was beaten badly in the primaries. Despite the optmism Obama does not fair as well as he hopes but does go on to gain the role of number one Democrat in the Senate.
I suppose for my ultimate dream map I would also have Maine, Michigan, Washington, and maybe Minnesota going Republican, but because its Christmas I wanted to give my Democratic friends here something so I left them safely in Democratic hands.
Again this is simply a map I would love to see, as I am sure my fellow Republicans would agree. I'll keep this verison until we have our nominees. I know I've been saying that for a while but I'm serious this time (I hope, lol). Anyway enjoy but my primary focus is, well, on the primaries.
Version: 24
Okay I know I said the last map was the last one for this year but I felt inspired and besides the other map was getting a little long in the comments section. Not to mention that we have GOP and Democratic primary maps now on which to mull over those races. So I did a map that I've been wanting to do for some time.
Republican Ticket: Rudy Giuliani (NY)/Haley Barbour (MS)
Democratic Ticket: Barak Obama (IL)/Michael Bloomberg (NY)
I think Giuliani would do very well against Obama especially in the South and West. Obama is strongest in the Midwest and with Bloomberg's aid captures Pennsylvania. Giuliani manages to make gains in the Pacific Northwest, winning Washington state by only a couple thousand votes. Likewise, Obama scrapes out a victory in Iowa. Wins for Rudy in Wisconsin and Connecticut are razor thin, only a few hundred, but he manages to pull it off.
This map goes along with my Republican and Democratic primary maps where Rudy and Barak are the winners, obviously. It could very well play out this way assuming Rudy can hold on a few more weeks and that Obama can gain enough momentum and support. An interesting possibility if nothing else. We shall see.
Let the commenting begin!
Version: 23
Alright here is what I hope is my final map prior to the primaries next year. I would like to keep this map for the next month or so because at this point our focus is going to shift from the general election to the primaries and then back to the general election in about March.
**I am offering my map page to be a discussion base for the Republican primary, as it will be my main focus over the coming two or three months.**
For the map itself, again its Rudy Giuliani/Haley Barbour vs. Hillary Clinton/Tom Vilsack. I know many of you think that I am crazy to be optimistic but I feel great about this election. No incumbent, an angry electorate, the direction and future of the country on the line, anything can happen. But I don't think the GOP is as badly damaged as many think. Nor do I believe the Democrats are as favored as most think. We have a great opertunity in 2008. But those are just my opinions. I'm content to let the voters decided things next year. Whatever happens, so be it. It all comes down to voter turn out.
It should be known that I offically endorse Rudy Giuliani for the Republican primary. That said I also believe that all of our candidates are able to win the general election against Hillary Clinton, depending on the campigns they wage. In order of winning next year I think it goes Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Thompson, and Romney. I like all our candidates for the most part and welcome discussion from other GOPers that support other candidates.
This page is completely open for all GOP political discussions but I'm also willing to host any commonts about the Democratic primary between Hillary and Obama. However, this page will mostly stick with the primaries and I'll return to serious general election talk afterwards.
Version: 22
Republican Ticket: Rudy Giuliani (NY)/ Haley Barbour (MS)
Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton (NY)/ Tom Vilsack (IA)
I believe that we are on the verge of a new political era that may well begin in 2008. It is a period in which America will move forward into the 21st century and the old red-blue state map that was a product of the Bushs and Clintons will be gone. On that note I believe that this country is ready to put the dynasty families behind us. Neither Bill Clinton nore George W Bush will be on the ballot in 2008. Their policies will likewise be off the table as this election will be about the nominees whom I forsee at this point as being Hillary and Rudy. It is our first election without an incumbent since 1952.
Rudy Giuliani is a solid non-social issues Reaganite, a figher, and a leader. He is a federalist and a moderate on the social issues. I think that after the primaries many social conservatives that did not vote for his nomination will support him in the face of a Hillary presidency. He is currently the second choice amoung a majority of conservatives voting for one of the other candidates in the primary. A strong social conservative and GOP base popular VP, such as Mississippi Governor Barbour, would make a very balanced ticket.
The Democratic candidate is, of course, Hillary Clinton. However Hillary, as the map shows, is just another in a long list of liberal northern Democrats including Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and John Kerry in 2004. Note that the all of the first five failed to gain the White House. Only southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton rose to the office and southerner Al Gore, despite loosing the electoral vote, gained the popular vote.
Hillary is our establishment candidate in a time that is very anti-Washington, regardless of party. She is also a senator and the last time a senator won the White House was in 1960 with JFK. I don't know when the last senator before him was elected but it was quite a while. Rudy's ability to bring out the base (especailly against Clinton) and win over moderates/independents/a few blue dogs can help him win the White House.
At the end of the day I see the vote at this point being something like Giuliani 51% to Clinton 47%. Not a huge difference and a result seen in many of the individual state races. The election will be decided on candidates and the issues. Do they stand with a majority of Americans, are they likible? These are critical and I think that in the arena of ideas that Rudy can beat Hillary.
At this point the best GOP pick ups come from Oregon, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile the Democrats best shots come from Newada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia.
Note the overall change here is not that great. Democrats pick up two states and the GOP picks up four. That gives Republicans a net gain of two. 2008 will not be 2006, that tide has pasted. Boddy Jindal's 54% election in Louisiana, the Democratic congress' ability to get nothing done, and the MA-5 House race that saw a popular liberal with lots of money and campigning by popular Democrats win only by five points show that the GOP is far far from dead. Granted the White House is its own very unique race independent of other political races. Its a game of wait and see, and the people will have the final say.
No polls where harmed in the making of this map.
Version: 21
Republican Ticket: Rudy Giuliani (NY)/ Haley Barbour (MS)
Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton (NY)/ Tom Vilsack (IA)
This early in the game we don't know much of anything about the election that is essentially about a year away. I am fairly convenced at this point that the race will be Rudy vs. Hillary. I have selected popular Mississippi govenor Haley Barbour to balance the ticket for Rudy and former Iowa govenor Tom Vilsack for similary reasons. I think both of these teams are possible and solid. It is the first election, primarily since 1952 that we have no incumbents running for office. Neither Bill Clinton nor George W Bush will be present on the 2008 ballot.
Rudy Giuliani is a solid non-social issues Reaganite, a figher, and a leader. He is a federalist and a moderate on the social issues. I think that after the primaries many social conservatives that did not vote for his nomination will support him in the face of a Hillary presidency. Barbour will help secure the rest of the base much as Michael Steele, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, or Marsha Blackburn would.
The Democratic candidate is, of course, Hillary Clinton. However Hillary, as the map shows, is just another in a long list of liberal northern Democrats including Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and John Kerry in 2004. Note that the all of the first five failed to gain the White House. Only southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton rose to the office and southerner Al Gore, despite loosing the electoral vote, gained the popular vote.
Hillary is our establishment candidate in a time that is very anti-Washington, regardless of party. She is also a senator and the last time a senator won the White House was in 1960 with JFK. I don't know when the last senator before him was elected but it was quite a while. Rudy's ability to bring out the base (especailly against Clinton) and win over moderates/independents/a few blue dogs can help him win the White House. Note, however, that we are moving steadly away from the red-blue state divide where much of the nation outside the base states are in play. Thus the base states here are of equal value and the rest are tossups.
At the end of the day I see the vote at this point being something like Giuliani 51% to Clinton 47%. Not a huge difference and a result seen in many of the individual state races. On the congressional side of things the Democrats are most likely to retain control of the Senate and have the possibility of picking up the seats in Virginia, Colorado, and/or New Hampshire. Republicans may pick up the seat in Louisiana and/or New Jersey. I expect very little change at the end of the day with the end result most likely being 52 Democrats to 46 Republicans to 2 Independents. As for the House, it could go either way at this point. The current House is a failure in an anti-Washington year. The GOP also stands ready to retake some of our lost seats from 2006.
Note the overall change here is not that great. Democrats pick up two states and the GOP picks up four. That gives Republicans a net gain of two. 2008 will not be 2006, that tide has pasted. Boddy Jindal's 54% election in Louisiana, the Democratic congress' ability to get nothing done, and the MA-5 House race that saw a popular liberal with lots of money and campigning by popular Democrats win only by five points show that the GOP is far far from dead. Granted the White House is its own very unique race independent of other political races. Its a game of wait and see, and the people will have the final say.
No polls where harmed in the making of this map.
Version: 20
Alright here is my new prediction map and it is a little different from those I have done in the past. What I have done is gone back and looked at past elections. I tried to see what candidates played well in what areas and how those states shifted over time. Thus this map is heavily based off historical trends, the fact that without an incumbent anything is possible, and that there is a long time till the election. No polls where harmed in the making of this map.
First off the candidates need to be established. For this map I have Rudy Giuliani as the Republican nominee with a running mate of Haley Barbour of Mississippi. There are other possible running mates choice, I have selected one that the base truely loves. Rudy and his potential VP are fresh and outside of the Washington beltway. Rudy is a strong Reaganite on the non-social issues and a federalist on social issues. This combination of leadership and likeibility presents a strong cnadidate for the GOP. He'll need good regional and social conservative balance in his running mate.
The Democratic candidate is, of course, Hillary Clinton. I suspect she'll pick a running mate like Tom Vilsack or Bill Richardson. However Hillary, as the map will show, is just another in a long list of liberal northern Democrats including Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and John Kerry in 2004. Note that the all of the first five failed to gain the White House. Only southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton rose to the office and Al Gore, despite loosing the electoral vote, gained the popular vote (he was also a southerner).
Since 1972 and 1984 were landslide elections against popular incumbents those two maps have little to do with this prediction. Here the map is based off the 1968 election but updated with 2004 trends/base states and contains some 1988 leanings. Hillary is our establishment candidate in a time that is very anti-Washington, regardless of party. In many ways similar to some of the aboved mentioned Democratic nominees. Rudy's ability to bring out the base (especailly against Clinton) and win over moderates/independents/a few blue dogs can help him win the White House. Note, however, that we are moving steadly away from the red-blue state divide where much of the nation outside the base states are in play.
At the end of the day I see the vote at this point being something like Giuliani 51% to Clinton 48%. Not a huge difference and a result seen in many of the individual state races. On the congressional side of things I am prepared to make this prediction. The Democrats are most likely to retain control of the Senate and have the possibility of picking up the seats in Virginia, Colorado, and/or New Hampshire. Republicans may pick up the seat in Louisiana and/or New Jersey. I expect very little change at the end of the day with the end result most likely being 52 Democrats to 46 Republicans to 2 Independents.
If one looks at the elections in the House over the years sited to help make this map in 1968 the GOP gained 5 deats, in 1972 they gained 12 seats, in 1984 they gained 16 seats, in 1988 they lost 2 seats, and in 2004 they gained 2 seats. That is an average of 7 seats gained. I think it will be a little larger than that, maybe something like 14 seats. So at the end of the day you'd have a House of 219 Democrats and 216 Republicans. A very slim control for Democrats.
I am hoping that this is my last map prior to the conclusion of the primaries. I'd like to wait till then and afterward create another map but I'll just have to see how it goes over the next three months or so.
Note: Due to technical difficulties on map version 19 I have recreated the map here with the only difference being that Mississippi is now 60% GOP due to Haley Barbour's VP status.
Version: 19
Alright here is my new prediction map and it is a little different from those I have done in the past. What I have done is gone back and looked at past elections. I tried to see what candidates played well in what areas and how those states shifted over time. Thus this map is heavily based off historical trends, the fact that without an incumbent anything is possible, and that there is a long time till the election. No polls where harmed in the making of this map.
First off the candidates need to be established. For this map I have Rudy Giuliani as the Republican nominee with a running mate like Haley Barbour of Mississippi or Rick Perry of Texas. Rudy and his potential running mate are fresh and outside of the Washington beltway. Rudy is a strong Reaganite on the non-social issues and a federalist on social issues. This combination of leadership and likeibility presents a strong cnadidate for the GOP. He'll need good regional and social conservative balance in his running mate.
The Democratic candidate is, of course, Hillary Clinton. I suspect she'll pick a running mate like Tom Vilsack or Bill Richardson. However Hillary, as the map will show, is just another in a long list of liberal northern Democrats including Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, Walter Mondale in 1984, Michael Dukakis in 1988, and John Kerry in 2004. Note that the all of the first five failed to gain the White House. Only southerners Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton rose to the office and Al Gore, despite loosing the electoral vote, gained the popular vote (he was also a southerner).
Since 1972 and 1984 were landslide elections against popular incumbents those two maps have little to do with this prediction. Here the map is based off the 1968 election but updated with 2004 trends/base states and contains some 1988 leanings. Hillary is our establishment candidate in a time that is very anti-Washington, regardless of party. In many ways similar to some of the aboved mentioned Democratic nominees. Rudy's ability to bring out the base (especailly against Clinton) and win over moderates/independents/a few blue dogs can help him win the White House. Note, however, that we are moving steadly away from the red-blue state divide where much of the nation outside the base states are in play.
At the end of the day I see the vote at this point being something like Giuliani 51% to Clinton 48%. Not a huge difference and a result seen in many of the individual state races. On the congressional side of things I am prepared to make this prediction. The Democrats are most likely to retain control of the Senate and have the possibility of picking up the seats in Virginia, Colorado, and/or New Hampshire. Republicans may pick up the seat in Louisiana and/or New Jersey. I expect very little change at the end of the day with the end result most likely being 52 Democrats to 46 Republicans to 2 Independents.
If one looks at the elections in the House over the years sited to help make this map in 1968 the GOP gained 5 deats, in 1972 they gained 12 seats, in 1984 they gained 16 seats, in 1988 they lost 2 seats, and in 2004 they gained 2 seats. That is an average of 7 seats gained. I think it will be a little larger than that, maybe something like 14 seats. So at the end of the day you'd have a House of 219 Democrats and 216 Republicans. A very slim control for Democrats.
I am hoping that this is my last map prior to the conclusion of the primaries. I'd like to wait till then and afterward create another map but I'll just have to see how it goes over the next three months or so.
Version: 18
Republican Ticket: Rudy Giuliani/Mike Huckabee
Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson
I think that as of right now the Giuliani-Huckabee ticket is the strongest hand the GOP can play. Rudy Giuliani is a different kind of Republican. He is a conservative on the non-social issues. He is moderate on social issues but is a federalist whom believes those issues should be left to the people of the states. Huckabee is an excellent choice for VP. He is popular with social conservatives and is regionally from the south. This is a well balanced ticket.
I believe that Rudy will hold the majority of the GOP, while Huckabee will hold a few more social conservatives that would be a little skeptical otherwise. Certainly a few of the evangelicals won't vote for him, but it will be a small group. Giuliani can more than make up for them in mostly moderates and some Reagan-blue dog centrist Democrats.
This is an interesting election in that we have no incumbents running. I think Giuliani will be well recieved as fresh, new, and a Washington outsider. All good things in a time when the nation is tired of our standard politicans in DC. He is a strong and proven leader and the best choice for the GOP in my opinion.
As for the rest of the elections, I don't know. Certainly the Democrats will maintain the Senate. Something like 53 seats. The House is up for grabs, we'll know more about those races in a few months. In the meantime, its just more early speculation.
Version: 17
Alright a new map. This is another possible Giuliani victory senerio. I think that at the end of the day Rudy will be our nominee and Hillary Clinton will capture the Democratic top spot. The 2008 election will require us to let go of some of our preconseptions. For example, while there will be some evidence of it, the red-blue state map will be shot, neither Bush nor Bill Clinton will be on the ballot. It will be a different kind of Republican verse a very polarizing liberal Washington Senator.
Republican Ticket: Rudy Giuliani/Haley Barbour
Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson
I'd like to quickly go throw the states that are real tossups. First off I don't think the GOP is shut out of Ohio and I believe we are more than capible of holding Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, and Colorado. This could also be the year we pick up Wisconsin and against Hillary I expect it to fall. I blieve that on his own Rudy can pick up Oregon, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
Now the two oddities on this map are Connecticut and Maine. I know many will think I'm insane by having them go GOP by 40%. But I believe that with the endorsements of Joe Lieberman, Susan Collins, and Olympia Snowe (plus their campign support) could delivery these states to Giuliani. Hillary's polarization and energizing the GOP base will also be a big boost. But its too early to tell for sure so I wanted to go ahead and get it out there.
This is by no means a final map, just another possibility. It'll be interesting to see how things play out in the general election next year. 13 months is a long time and anything is possible in that amount of time. We'll just have to see how it goes, should be a good show if nothing else.
Version: 16
Rudy Giuliani vs. Hillary Clinton
Now I have said how I don't believe that Hillary Clinton is electible. So I wanted to spend time on this map looking at what Giuliani can do in the context of the general match up against Hillary, whom I don't think can win. So lets start at the beginning.
Primary: Giuliani has the potential to win quite a few states in the up coming GOP primary. He is a proven leader who is electible and conservative on the non-social issues in an important election for the White House. I think this will earn him base support. Thompson is the only credible threat as McCain, Romney and the others are going to burn out. Even Newt wouldn't make a dent.
States Rudy should (or has a chance to) be able to win for the nomination include Wyoming, Nevada, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, Maine, Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Louisiana, Washington, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Wisconsin, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Ohio, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, and New Mexico for a grand total of 1774 delegates (out of 2458)
Following the primary season, Rudy needs a to choose a running mate. The best possibilities I see at the moment are Fred Thompson, Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Michael Steele, or Marsha Blackburn.
Now I think Rudy will do well nation-wide but I think his strongest levels of support could come from out west. I am confident he'll play well in the midwest and not much if anything in the south is going to vote for Hillary. The northeast should be interesting. I am sure we can pick up New Hampshire and maybe Connecticut. Pennsylvania is another possibility.
So I think this will be a fun and interesting election cycle with no incumbent and a chance to break with the Bush-Clinton dynasties. Lets sit back and enjoy the ride.
Version: 15
Hey all, new map and one I hope to keep for a while. As I have said many a time, this is a different election year based on candidates and issues. I know many have written off the GOP, I think that is a mistake. We did bottom out but now we are rebuilding and I think over the next few odd months we will start to see things change. But let's look at this map for now.
Republican: Rudy Giuliani
Democratic: Hillary Clinton
I have not put in any running mates at this time as we are so early in the election process. In the elections before, most candidates would have just now declared. So we have a ways to go before we will know anything for sure about this election. I like to keep an open mind. But to help with this map I want to go throw and tell you how I build my maps so here we go!
First off I start by identifing the base states. That is I put down the states that are 100% going GOP and those 100% going Democratic no matter the candidate. For 2008 the Democratic base states include Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, Maryland, DC, Illinois, California, Washington, and Hawaii. The GOP base states include Indiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and Alaska.
Next, after the base states are assigned, I place the strong partisan lean states on the map. That means I place states that are pretty much sure wins but could be electorial suprises. For the Democrats those states include Maine, Connecticut, Delaware, and New Jersey. The GOP strong partisan lean states include Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, and Arizona.
That leaves the remaining states in the union that are very open to change and very independent, I'm talking of course about the tossups. I see this year's tossups including Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
The Senate shall remain Democratic but the House is up for grabs. Let the commenting begin!
Version: 14
Being so far out from the election and not even being finished with the primaries makes any map we do at this point pure speculation. However, I have been making various maps to test out various electorial combinations. This map is a continuation of that experimentation and also a possibility for next year.
The general tickets at this point don't matter so much in the way of VPs. So this map is a general Rudy Giuliani verses Hillary Clinton. In many respects this election could resemble the 1976 election. A polarized country with a moderate Republican running against a more center left Democrat.
Rudy can make Pennsylvania and New Hampshire competitive. He also has the possibility to intrude into New Jersey and maybe Connecticut. But at this point I'll just say that Hillary holds the Northeast, though very closely in PA and NH.
Likewise to the Northeast, I am going to say that outside races in Virginia, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Florida that the South is solid GOP. I don't see that changing. Again for now I'm inclinded to let Hillary have favorite daughter status in Arkansas, but I think Rudy can win the rest of the tossups in the South.
The Midwest is a mixed basket. Indiana and Illinois are locks for their respective parties. Michigan and Minnesota are still tossups but at this point I'll say that Hillary gets enough union and traditional Democratic support to win. Missouri, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin are perfect places for Rudy to win and I think he is capible of carrying all four.
The west is where I did some creative thinking. It seems as though it is the region that the GOP is doing the best in and so I would venture to say that the RNC will spend as much money as possible there. Guiliani already wants to campign in non-traditional GOP states so who knows.
California, Washington, and Hawaii are sure bets for Hillary. Rudy has he's sure bets too. I think he is more than capible of carring Colorado and Nevada. I also think that given enough time he could sway New Mexico and Oregon. A possibility none the less.
Overall Democrats keep the Senate and I don't think anyone would disagree with that. The House is a tossup at this point. Smash showed at least 35 GOP seats the Democrats could pick up and I have shown at least 45 the GOP could pick up (see version 12 for more details). At this point it could really go either way and we'll have to wait till next August before we have a good idea where things are heading in all the races.
Version: 13
Republican ticket: Rudy Giuliani/Duncan Hunter
Democratic ticket: Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson
Northeast: Hillary should be able to carry this region without much trouble. Surely the base states such as Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, and DC will give her their electorial votes. Maine, Delware, Connecticut, and Maine could prove interesting but will likely stay Democratic depending on the candidates. Pennsylvania could be won by either parties as could New Hampshire, though I find New Hampshire more independent and capible of change than Pennsylvania.
South: Just as Hillary is likely to clean up the northeast with little exception, so too is the GOP candidate assured an easier victory in the mostly solid GOP south. I don't see many contests here though Virginia, Florida, and West Virginia are bound to be competitive. I believe Rudy can hold them. Arkansas is going to be a real fight. It is the best shot outside West Virginia for Hillary to gain southern ground. However for a Clinton victory much of the south is simply not required.
Midwest: Giuliani has the potential to do great here. He can rebuild the GOP image in Ohio, and ensure that Missouri and Iowa stay Republican. Not that the races won't exist but I think he can beat Hillary. Indiana is a GOP lock to begin with and I think we could see Wisconsin fall in 2008. Michigan and Minnesota are the biggest pickups I think Rudy can make. Each was lost by Bush by only 3 points and I think that with general voter disatisfaction that outsider Giuliani can win here. Illinois need not even be discussed. The plains states of Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas should still be GOP safe especailly with Hillary on the ticket.
West: Hillary has her locks out here in California, Washington, and Hawaii. Richardson will also likely sway New Mexico into a lock for her. Giuliani can count on Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana. Nevada and Colorado are places that Rudy can carry and I think most like will. Colorado in particular seems to like him at the moment.
So there you have it. Not a blow out but a healthy GOP election with few suprises. The Senate remains Democratic while the House is up for grabs depending on how things go over the next 15 months. Lots of time between now and voting day and I am sure this will only be one map of many to be made in that time period.
Version: 12
Republican: Rudy Giuliani/Mike Huckabee
Democratic: Hillary Clinton/Ron Wyden
Again we have to put the red-blue state mind set to rest. Its over and done with. It is the first election since 1952 with no incumbent for either party. Bush is not on the ballot. I forsee the major issues to be Iraq/the greater war on terror, energy, immigration, healthcare, taxes/economy, and government reform. There will be a clear difference between the parties.
Hillary is again polarizing with a left of center voting record. I think she will also be viewed as the same old same old establishment canidate while Rudy has the advantage of being a leader of a major city and a Washington outsider.
-Northeast: Hillary is able to hold her own in this part of the nation. Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, DC, New York, and Maryland easily fall to her. Delaware and Maine are signifigant leaners and stay Democratic. New Hampshire and Pennsylvania could see higher turn out of GOP voters against Hillary and Rudy can do well amoung moderates/independents as well as Reagan Democrats.
The real shocker could be Connecticut. Not a sure thing for Rudy at all but could flip IF Rudy can turn out and hold the GOP base in the state together. It will be critical that Lieberman endorse and campign for him here and Giuliani will need to spend time in the state as he said he would. Lieberman independents/Democrats could give Rudy enough support to take the state. A possibility, maybe.
-South: Giuliani cleans up here. This is the GOP's back yard and he easily carries the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Texas, Florida, and Oklahoma. Virginia and West Virginia look iffy for a while but he has the potential to carry both with the military vote and conservative turn out. West Virginia could still go Democrat though. Arkansas flips due to Bill's presence and Hillary's favor daughter stance. Still competitive state though.
-Midwest: Giuliani is a good fit for Ohio and Missouri. Indiana is a GOP lock. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan will be close but Rudy can carry those states with moderates/independents voting with the GOP base. Minnesota remains out of reach and Illinois, well need I say more. Nebraska, Kansas, and the Dakotas have no trouble electing Rudy over Hillary.
-West: Hillary can count on Hawaii and California. Washington is a leaner that she'll most likely carry and Oregon will probably flow suite, especially if Wyden is on the ticket. It could flip though. Hillary's popularity in New Mexico probably gives her that state. Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Alaska are no brainer GOPers. Nevada and Colorado could be close but I think Rudy can carry both of them. Arizona is an odd state but I think Giuliani wins it before Hillary. Immigration and national security sink her there.
For now I'll hold off on Congressional predictions. I don't have enough data. But what I can say at this point with some certainity is that the Senate will remain Democratic and the House is a tossup. It could go GOP by a very slim margin or it could stay Democratic by a slim margin. Close either way.
Version: 11
Alright its time for a new map and some new ideas so here is map number eleven. Again, I think with Bush gone the red-blue divide is also history. With no incumbent and a wide variety of issues, this should make for an interesting election year.
Republican ticket: Rudy Giuliani (New York)/Mike Huckabee (Arkansas). This ticket is well balanced both regionally and issues-wise for the the non-social and social issue conservatives. It also has a strong appeal to moderate and indpendent voters.
Democratic ticket: Hillary Clinton (New York)/Joe Biden (Delaware). I have a feeling Hillary is going to get the nomination thanks to the Clinton machine. I am taking a guess at a possible running mate. I am unsure who she will choose at the moment.
I could go through this map state by state but that would require a lot of time and I would be repeating myself from one map to another so I'll so this more by regions.
Northeast: Though Rudy does better here than any other Republican could, its still the Democrat's backyard. He manages to get close in New Hampshire (48%) and New Jersey (45%) but Hillary still comes out on top (50% and 53% respectivily). The only state that Giuliani is able to steal away is Pennsylvania carring it 51% to 49%.
South: This is the GOP's backyard. Hillary will not play well here. Giuliani's stances on national defense, taxes, immigration, and other non-social issues combined with Huckabee's social conservativism pulls Dixie for the Republicans. Florida is tough by Rudy takes it 52% to 48%.
Arkansas and West Virginia are the only expections. Bill Clinton's connection to Arkansas and its typical pattern of voting Democratic give Hillary the state 52% to 48%. West Virginia sees higher union turn out while social conservatives aren't so thrilled with Giuliani here even with Huckabee on the ticket. The final count is close 50% to 49%.
Midwest: My home region is very flickled. Giuliani is perfectly suited to pick up Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Minnesota stays true to its Democratic tradition while Rudy just can't seem to over come the union vote in Michigan. Indiana and Illinois, well need I say more.
West: Now the west is where things get interesting. Many have said the west is tired of southern Republicans and east coast Democrats. I think that Rudy's moderate social positions and strong economic conservative stance will be enough to sweep the west. Colorado New Mexico (without Richardson) and Nevada go a comfortable 50% for Giuliani while Oregon is barely his at 48%. California, Washington, Utah, Idaho, Alaska, Hawaii, and Wyoming need no explination.
The Congress is hard to predict but I am going to say that the Democrats keep the Senate. The House is even harder because it could go either way but I would say the GOP can pick up enough seats to flip it with a thin majority.
Version: 10
Alright here is map ten. Again I hold to my belief that the 2008 election will be different from the past few elections we have seen. Having said that it does have some ties to both the red-blue state set up (though greatly deminished) and of course history. Next year the American people will have a clear choice between the two views that will take the United States ever further into the 21st century. And with no incumbent on the ballot anything is possible.
Republican Ticket: Rudy Giuliani/Mike Huckabee
Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson
New Hampshire: Giuliani has the potential to really well here. He can gain a number of moderate/independent voters as well as Reagan Democrats. Hillary is very polarizing and in an independent minded state like this it can cost her. Not only that but many of the Republicans in the state are more non-social issue conservatives which is another Rudy boost. The victory for Rudy would be something like 48% to 46%.
New Jersey: While Rudy has the same potential to do good here, it is a very Democratic state. Not that it couldn't flip but Hillary will probably be able to hold the state with Richardson on the grounds of 49% to 45%.
Delaware: Another possible pick up and another uphill battle. The results will be close especially if Rudy wins Pennsylvania as it can effect the state's northern and Democratic New Castle county. The win for Hillary is something on the order of 48% to 47%.
Pennsylvania: This is an excellent state for a Giuliani/GOP pick up. Rudy has the ability to win enough of the Philadephia suburbs while Huckabee can help with some of the more rural social conservatives. The win would something like 49% to 47%.
West Virginia: Giuliani can connect with the pro-military and the non-social conservative votes. Huckabee has the appeal needed to hold many social conservatives. Hillary's polarization can really do her some damage here and the state will probably fall Rudy's way 53% to 47%.
Ohio: A very critical state but one I think the GOP can hold. Rudy and his coalition of anti-Hillary conservatives, moderates, and Reagan Democrats is enough to pull the state with a margin on the order of 50% to 48%.
Michigan: If Giuliani can pick up this state he'll have to work hard. The union vote is extremely strong here and Hillary enjoys much more favorible ratings. I would say she keeps the state 51% to 48%.
Wisconsin: This state has been so close for so long all it needs is just the right GOP canidate to tip it. Any of the top tier can but Rudy has the best chance. Hillary is again another factor in this state in the GOP favor. It would fall probably 49% to 48%.
Iowa: I believe that we can retain this state. If it did not go for John Kerry I don't think it will go for Hillary. Plus there is appeal from Rudy to the moderates. Another close victory 49% to 47%.
Arkansas: At first I did not think any state in the south could fall to Hillary but this one just may. It has a long history of being a very Democratic state on both the local and federal level. Even with Huckabee it would be close, I'd say 50% to 49%.
Colorado: Rudy and the other GOP canidates seem to be doing well there. I would say that the moderate/pro-military vote goes Rudy's way and Huckabee keeps the social conservatives from Colorado Springs in check. It would fall 51% to 47%.
New Mexico: Hispanics in this state like Hillary and Richardson is a big bonus. Of all the southwest this is the state most likely to fall, probably 52% to 47%.
Nevada: I see the GOP keeping this state. Its voters are very partisan and Hillary will drive GOP turnout. Giuliani will also do well amoung the state's moderates/independents and I think carry the state 50% to 49%.
Oregon: This state is an interesting development. The balanced Giuliani-Huckabee ticket can appeal to just about everyone in the state's Republican population. Moderates might also be more drawn to Rudy and less to the polarizing Hillary. The state also has a history of voting GOP and the last few elections never had it more than 4 points away. It would be very close if it flips, 47% to 46%.
Version: 9
Alright, this is my outside the box, red-blue state map dead version nine map. As I have said over and over again this election will be different from the past four elections that we have seen (1992 to 2004). We have no incumbent (Bush is not on the ballot), a wide open field of canidates, a clear difference between the positions of the parties, voter disatisfaction with government, and many important issues that will define America well into the 21st century.
Republican Ticket: Rudy Giuliani/Mike Huckabee
Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson
New Hampshire: Giuliani makes a strong showing here and gains the support of a majority of independent voters. He is even able to attract some Reagan Democrats and carries the state 48% to 46%.
Connecticut: This is the suprise of the night. Joe Lieberman's endorsement and campigning for Giuliani helps pull a number of independents, Reagan Democrats, and "Lieberman" Democrats. Hillary's record on voting for the Iraq war causes a number of strong anti-war Democrats to stay home or vote for minor third parties and the state falls to Rudy 49.85% to 49.15%.
New Jersey: Giuliani spends a lot of time in the state and pulls a majority of the independents and Reagan Democrats. GOP voters also turn out in higher than expected numbers. Rudy wins a majority of the southern counties in addition to the counties that Bush won in 2004. Giuliani carries the state 48% to 47%.
Delaware: Again Rudy makes a strong showing here and does well amoung the independents. His gains in New Castle county are just enough to hand the state to Giuliani 47% to 45%.
Pennsylvania: Rudy and Hillary stay in a dead heat in this battleground state throughout September and October. Its very close but Hillary still manages to do better in the Philadelphia suburbs and carries the state 50% to 49%.
Ohio: Giuliani and Huckabee coupled with the anti-Hillary sentiment help drive out the GOP vote. Again Rudy does well amoung the moderate voters and carries the state 50% to 48%.
West Virginia: It is hoped that the pro-military vote and Huckabee's presence on the ticket will give Rudy a victory. However, a strong union turn out and Giuliani's inability to connected to a majority of West Virginian voters results in the state falling to Hillary 48% to 46%.
Michigan: Giuliani does well here and is able to over come the strong union vote in Detroit, Flint, and Lansing. He manages to carry the state 47% to 45%.
Wisconsin: The state has been close for many elections and with Rudy on the ticket for non-social issue conservatives and Huckabee for the social issue conservatives, coupled with Rudy's popularity amoung independents allows him to carry the state 49% to 48%.
Iowa: The Giuliani coalition's continues to gain momentum and the state falls to Rudy 48% to 46%.
Colorado: Hillary spends a lot of time campigning here. However, the independent vote is more inclined to vote for Rudy and the pro-military vote also goes his way. Huckabee holds enough social conservatives from around Colorado Springs to give the state to Giuliani 51% to 49%.
New Mexico: Clinton does well amound hispanics and Richardson's presences on the ticket hands the state to Hillary easily 52% to 48%.
Nevada: Rudy spends as much time here as he can. The very partisan vote coupled with a gain in moderate voters gives the state to Rudy 50% to 48%.
Oregon: It looks in August as if Rudy may carry the state. But Rudy is unable to spend much time there as he campigns in Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Ohio, and New Jersey during the last few days of the election season. Hillary keeps most of the moderate votes and carries the state 51% to 49%.
Again the House falls to the GOP, a gain of between 18 to 25 seats. Not a huge majority but one none the less. The Senate remains Democratic with slight gains to something like 52 to 54 seats.
Version: 8
This election is going to be different from the last four elections that we have seen (1992 to 2004). It is the first time in almost 60 years that we have no incumbents running on the ballot, which includes Bush. The next president will be chosen based on the canidates and the issues, the red-blue state way of thinking is history. I believe that the American voters will have a clear choice between two directions for the country.
Republican: Rudy Giuliani/Mike Huckabee
Democratic: Hillary Clinton/Bill Richardson
New Hampshire: Giuliani campigns here but is unable to get out enough GOP votes and like the rest of New England Hillary does well there, beating Rudy by a margin of 50% to 48%.
New Jersey: The mid-Altantic region proves to be a good area for Rudy. His appeal to independents and Reagan Democrats helps him to pull the state into the GOP column but just barely 49.85% to 49.15%.
Pennsylvania: Giuliani does very well here helping to win back much of the Philadelphia suburbs as well as making gains amoung more moderate voters. He beats Hillary 50% to 48%.
Delaware: This state usually votes the way Pennsylvania does and Rudy's gains in the Philadelphia suburbs influences the more Democratic northern part of the state. Again the independent vote is very important and again Rudy barely carries the state 49% to 48%.
West Virginia: At first it looks as though a low social conservative turn out and union voting will hand the state over to Hillary. However, the pro-military vote and enough social conservatives turn out to vote against Hillary that Rudy wins the state 54% to 48%.
Ohio: Giuliani spends a lot of time campigning here and rebuilding the GOP infastructure. Ohioians enjoy the fresh difference of Rudy's Washington outsider campign and the state goes 51% to 48% for Giuliani.
Michigan: Dispite campigning here several times, Rudy can't over come the union vote from Detriot, Flint, and Lancaster. Hillary wins the state 49% to 46%.
Wisconsin: A state that has been close for years finally falls to the GOP. Giuliani's gains in independent votes and Reagan Democrats combined with high anti-Hillary Republican voters gives Rudy the state 49% to 48%.
Iowa: Again Giuliani's new coalition of Republicans, Independents, and Reagan Democrats is enought to pull the state his way when combined with the polarization of Hillary. Rudy wins 48% to 46%.
Colorado: Rudy makes it close but a depressed evanglical turnout around Colorado Springs combined with Richardson's popularity hands the state over to Hillary 48% to 47%.
New Mexico: Popularity amoung hispanics and Richardson's presences on the ticket gives the state to Hillary 51% to 48%.
Nevada: Giuliani spends a few days here before the election and campigned in the state several times over the year. Higher than normal anti-Hillary GOP voters help give the state to Rudy 50% to 47%.
Oregon: Hillary faces an early threat and its tight through September but ultimately the state endorses her 51% to 49%.
Due to very low approval numbers, the lack of meaningful legislation, constant in-fighting, a continuation of earmark/spending, and endless investigations the House of Representatives sees Republican gains of 22 seats giving them a governing majority of 224 to 211.
The Democrats pick up the Senate seats in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Oregon. That makes 52 Democrats, 2 Independents, and 46 Republicans.
Version: 7
Alright here is map number seven. Now I know that it looks very stange but it is the break down of the red-blue state divide that was part of the Bush polarization. The country is tired of Bushes and tired of Clintons, no more dynasty families for America. It is also our first election in almost 60 years (since 1952) where we do not have an incumbent runing. Now a few things about the map.
First off, while the red-blue state divide is dead here and we get back to real elections, each of the major parties still carry what I call their partisan heartlands. In that I mean there are certain states that will vote for their party's canidate no matter what. These areas are,
GOP Heartland: Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and Alaska. Total electorial votes 148.
Democratic Heartland: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, Maryland, DC, Washinton state, California, Hawaii, and Illinois. Total electorial votes 154.
The tickets are as follows with no real credible third party.
Republican: Rudy Giuliani with a VP of Michael Steele. This is my dream team. Giuliani will be able to hold the GOP base while doing very well with independents and Reagan Democrats. Steele is liked all around by the GOP base and is a good number two choice.
Democratic: Hillary Clinton with a VP of Bill Richardson. Hillary will get the nomination and I don't know who she'll pick as her VP. I don't think it will be Obama. She is very shrill and polarizing and I personally don't think she is electible. Lets look at some specific states for this senerio:
New Hampshire: The race is very close but Giuliani manages to gain the upper hand with Reagan Democrats and higher GOP turn out to combat Hillary. Progress in Iraq also helps. The state goes to Rudy 49% to 47%. Sununu is defeated in the senate race. This is not suprising since Kerry won the state in 2004 while senator Gregg was easily reelected.
New Jersey: It could be a redo of 1976. Clinton resembles Carter and Giuliani Ford. His position on social issues coupled with independent votes and Iraqi progress helps swing the state Rudy's way but just barely, 49.85% to 49.15%.
Pennsylvania: Similar again to 1976. Many assume Rudy will win and he does well, but he does not muster the support in the Philadelphia suburbs to over take Hillary. She wins the state 51% to 49%.
Ohio: Again progress in Iraq, a do-nothing congress, good economic conditions, and Rudy's appeal to independents with Hillary's polarization give the state to Rudy 52% to 48%.
West Virginia: Both Giuliani and Clinton's more leftward stance on the social issues makes this state competitive. But Rudy musters support amoung the populace that is more pro-military and carries the state 56% to 44%.
Michigan: With a high tax and regulatory situation lowering the state's economy to 50th in the union, dissatisfaction from the auto industry about environmental regulations, immigration concerns, and the election last year of republicans to state offices by margins larger than 10 points, Rudy manages to pull the state 48% to 45%.
Wisconsin: This state has been close in every election for the past 16 years. With Bush no longer on the ballot and Rudy's appeal to the independent voters and GOP turn out against Hillary it falls 49% to 48% for Rudy.
New Mexico: Hillary does well amoung Hispanic voters in this state and Bill Richardson helps as the VP. Its close but Clinton claims the state 49% to 48%.
Iowa, Minnesota, and Oregon are all close as Hillary and Rudy battle it out. Rudy claims Iowa by 49% while Clinton takes Minnesota and Oregon by about the same margin. At the end of the day Sununu, Smith, and the open Colorado seat fall to the Democrats giving them 52 seats in the Senate with 2 indpendents and 46 Republicans.
A majority of the state governments, 27, stay Democratic. However do to the do-nothing spending laden congress and its low approval the House falls to the GOP. Republicans gain 22 seats giving them a majority control of 224 seats to the Democrat's 211.
Please note this is my opinion and attempt to move beyond the red-blue state divide. It gets us back to a time when the GOP and Democrats were competitive in many states and the presidential canidate could win by 290 to 420 electorial votes. This map could potentially be revised after the September Iraq report and by who ever wins the primary races. It is very early however I feel Rudy and Hillary are the two clearest choices thus far. And I think the battle goudnd will be in the southwest, midwest, and midatlantic.
Version: 6
I was unhappy with my last map because I fell back into the red-blue state mind set. It is important to make that break. This is our nation's first election since 1952 without an incumbent and the first since 1984 where the Bush family is not present in the election (exception is 1996). The Bushes and the Clintons are very very polarizing and the country is ready to move on past them after we deal with Hillary. I think that 2008 will be a very unique election.
The presidential race in and of its self is very unique. States can vote for one party as far as state offices and congressional elections go but vote totally different for the nation's highest office. In 2008 national security, immigration, the economy/taxes, and energy I think will be the top issues. Healthcare, the fairness doctrine, and judicial nominations will be secondary issues.
I think the Republicans will nominate either Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson with a VP of the model of Michael Steele or Mike Huckabee. Both Rudy and Fred can win the above map. I still believe that, though polarizing, Hillary will still gain the Democratic nomination but Obama with a similar voting record would be just as liberal a choice. I feel the Democrats would do better to nominate a moderate but that does not look like it will be the case. Lets look at some states:
Wisconsin: It has been close in 1996 (that is if you add Dole and Perot votes), 2000, abd 2004. It has a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage showing that the GOP would have some influence. I think that since we pulled New Mexico and Iowa in 2004 and Wisconsin can flip in 2008.
Pennsylvania: I know I said I thought it was lost but that was due to 2006 info. True we lost there but that does not mean that we can't win next year. A lot can happen, Rudy would have the best chance but Reagan did well there too and I think Fred could as well. Nationally it was close in 2004 and a possible pick when faced with polarizing Hillary and no incumbent. The vote would be close like Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin's from 2000 and 2004.
New Hampshire: No doubt the same could be said as PA. Again a presidential race is different and one without an incumbent is very different. The state is usually the most GOP friendly in the northeast despite our looses in 2006. Since won in 2000 I think it shows that it can be won in 2008 with the right campign. The final vote would be like Iowa's last year, very tight.
Michigan: As I have said, this is a different election. While we lost Michigan's govenor and senate seat in 2006 we did win the Secretary of State and Attorney General positions by a margin of 14 to 10 points respectivily. It also banned gay marriage and affirmative action programs constitutionally the latter last year by large margins. Again it is a place the GOP can pick up by half to one and half points. Enviornmental regulations on the auto industry and attempts to eliminate the secret ballot for non-union workers could also be factors in our favor. The recently reelected Senator Stabenow has voted with the GOP on immigration issues.
Ohio: I don't think we will loose this state. If you factor Dole and Perot's votes together in 1996 they beat Clinton. It was also a decent GOP state in 2000 and 2004. I don't think Hillary can carry the state. The GOP did loose the state offices and senate seat last year but we did retain a majority of the House seats (11 to 7) by decent margins in the suburbs and in the Columbus and Cincinnati areas. The margin of victory will probably be similar to 2004.
I think that if the GOP gets the presidency then we can win back the House. Congress has gotten so little done and has been so lacking in accomplishments that it will hurt. The House could go 224 GOP to 211 Democrats or in the area close to the pre-2006 levels.
I still think that the Senate will remain Democratic. Hagel and Graham will probably get beat in their primaries and then their replacements will win in the general election. Sununu, Smith, and Coleman will probably be defeated and replaced by Democrats making the senate 52 Democrats, 46 Republicans, and 2 Independents.
Again this is all my opinion that I have built using polls, news, radio, talking with my father (a former political science teacher), talking with family and friends across the country, and looking a history. No incumbent, major issues, both parties down, and a very polarizing Clinton will change this election when looked at the past three.
Version: 5
Based on all the information I have been looking at I must agree that a landslide in 2008 is at the moment unlikely. However, I feel that a healthy victory around 300 electorial votes is possible. This is my updated map and it places either Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson as the GOP canidate with a Michael Steele or Mike Huckabee type conervative running mate. Hillary Clinton is still the Democrat though I do believe that it is possible for Obama to pull an upset in the primaries and beat her. The map would still similarly apply for a few minor changes.
I want to take a moment to explain some of the state predictions I have and then go to the general race analysis.
Pennsylvania: This state like the rest of the northeast is lost to the GOP. It has voted Democratic in the past four presidential cycles. 2006 saw the loss of one of the most conservative senators, Rick Santorum, to Democrat Bob Casey by a margin of 17%. The governor's race was just as bad with a Democrat winning by 20%. The House saw GOP looses in the suburbs of Philadelphia (a must for a GOP win) and 11 of the state's 19 members are Democratic.
Michigan: While 2006 saw the Democrats take the govenorship 56%-41% and the Senate seat 56%-42% (both incumbents) the Secretary of State position went GOP 56%-43% as did the Attorney General 53%-43%. A majority of Michigan's House members are GOP, 9 to 6, with victories for the republicans in districts like the 8th and 9th in the precentages of 55%-43% and 52%-46%. Michigan also in 2006 passed constitutional amendment banning public institutions from using affirmative action programs 57%-42%. Likewise, the state has a constitutional ban on gay marriage and the auto industry is suffering from enviornmental regulations making this midwestern state a place the GOP could pick up.
Wisconsin: It was a state that was 49%-49% in the 2004 election and close in 2000. The state is part of the midwest and has a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. It is a possible state similar to Iowa which the GOP carried in 2004 and could be carried in 2008.
Iowa: Faced with liberal positions of Hillary on social issues and the economy from a market stand point could vote GOP again in 2008.
Ohio: 2006 was not so bad as I originally thought. Stickland won the govenorship 60%-36% against Blackwell. The Senate race also saw Brown beat DeWine 56%-43%. However, Ohio's House delegation is still 11 Republicans to 7 Democrats with a number of encouraging races. Chabot beat Cranley 52%-48%, Schmiat beat Wulsin 51%-46%, Turner beat Chema 58%-42%, Jordan beat Siferd in the Democratic trending 4th district 60%-40%, Tiberi beat Shamansky in the Columbus suburb 12th district 58%-42%, and Pryee beat Kilroy in the Columbus 15th district. The state is still a place the GOP can do well especailly since the city of Cincinnati voted reliabily GOP in 2000, 2004, and 2006.
The northeast and west coast are in firm Democratic control and the south and plains/mountain west remains GOP. The real battle will be in the midwestern states were I think the GOP can have success.
This election will be about canidates and issues, it is very early at this point and a lot can and I think will change over the next year. For now though, this is how I see the presidential race.
For the congress I make the following predictions. Though dealing with popularity issues Harry Truman won the 1948 election and the House switched from 246 Republicans to 263 Democrats. The House has gotten little done and I think that should the GOP win the presidency, the House could flip back to pre-2006 levels or thereabourts. Possible 224 Republicans to 211 Democrats.
As for the Senate, I would say that it remains Democratic with Senators Coleman, Smith, Hagel, Graham, and Sununu going home. I would say the final count will be 52 Democrats to 46 Republicans with 2 independents. Hagel and Graham being replaced in the primaries and their replacements winning the general election gives these results.
Version: 4
Alright, I have tightened my predictions. Again this is an optimistic map and it breaks mostly with the red-blue state mind set which I think is very important. This election is about canidates and issues. Here is my overall reasoning:
On the Democratic ticket is Hillary Clinton. She will win the primary with the Clinton political machine hard at work. Now she is running on several issues such as higher taxes, regulation of energy, socialized government run healthcare, amnesty for illegal aliens, and other left-wing issues. She also has a likeibility problem. A Mason-Dixon poll shows that 52% of Americans won't consider voting for her, the breakdown against her was 60% of independents, 56% men, 47% women, and 88% Republicans.
I forsee Fred Thompson on the Republican side. He has a very likeible personality and displays classic Reagan optimism. He wishes to build a coalition of Republicans, Indpendents, and Democrats on conservative issues. He is running on low taxes, energy independence, non-government controlled solutions to health care, stronger international trade and relations, building the border fense, and other conservative ideals. Thompson is more than capible of carring moderates and conservative Democrats much as Reagan did.
Bloomberg, if he runs, is not a threat. He is a liberal and a former Democrat that only changed sides to be the mayor of New York. He is pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control, liberal on poverty solutions, pro-amnesty and open borders, and opposed the nomination of Chief Justice Roberts to the Supreme Court. He is more likely to steal liberal northeastern votes than anything else.
I have done this map on the same level as my other optimistic map for the GOP. However it is much more regional. I see the northeast and west coast as Democratic strongholds. I believe however without Bush and with Hillary the GOP can gain a foot hold in the upper midwest. Cracking Oregon is also possible and we still may have a shot at New Hampshire.
For an overall picture I see the GOP winning the White House and possibly the House of Representatives. I would say the House is the only chamber of Congress within reach for Republicans. The Democrats will definitly be keeping the Senate. The GOP has some work to do in that chamber.
Version: 3
Okay, this is my best case senerio landslide for the Republicans similar to the 1988 Dukakis failure. I feel the need to move away from the red state-blue state mode of thinking, a concept created after the 2000 election. I feel that 2008 is about two things, canidates and issues.
I see the Democratic canidate being Hillary Clinton. First off she is very polarizing: a Mason-Dixon study found 52% of American voters said they wouldn't consider voting for her. The break down was 60% independents against her, 56% of men, 47% of women, and 88% of Republicans. Her platform includes higher taxes, socialized government healthcare, regulation of the energy companies, amnesty for illegal aliens, complete withdrawal from the global fight on terrorism except maybe here at home, and number of other left-wing issues.
I forsee the Republican canidate being Fred Thompson. He is very likible canidate, who has recently stated in New Hampshire that he wishes to build a coalition of Republicans, Independents, and Democrats on conservative issues. He displays that Reagan optimism that helped get the 40th president elected. His platform includes, low taxes, energy independence, fighting terrorism abroad, building the fense on the southern border, fighting against the fairness doctrine, federalism, and number of other issues.
Bloomberg is no threat to the GOP. Most conservatives say they will not vote for him. He is a liberal on abortion, gay marriage, gun control, proverity solutions, open borders, and opposed the nomination of Chief Justice Roberts to the Supreme Court. He will more than likely steal moderate to liberal voters from Hillary.
The GOP base is fired up and united thanks to immigration and the fairness doctrine issues. And we want to win. The opposition to Hillary is strong. Obama is just as liberal and would fair little better but the Clinton machine will get her the nomination. As far as Iraq goes I believe we will see a gradual withdrawal beginning sometime this fall or winter. In any case it won't be the single issue and we have Hillary voting for the war and then voting not to fund it.
Please note that this is my optimistic map and could certainly be wrong, please keep comments polite. I see the GOP regaining the House but the Democrats will most definitely keep the Senate. Republicans have some major house cleaning to do in the Senate.
Version: 2
This map is the same as the old one. I have this map based on a Fred Thompson with possible VP of Hunter, Huckabee, Tancrato, or Sarah Palin (governor of Alaska). On the Democrat side I have Hillary Clinton as the canidate.
Thompson will excite the GOP base and is plain spoken and common sense attitude can appeal to many moderates and independents. He is also a Washinton outsider wanting to speak for the people.
Hillary is very shrill and polarizing. Her support for expanded social programs and higher taxes turn off Middle America. Her votes for the war and some funding have anti-war Democrats upset with her. She is much more a divided and unable to be viewed as a centrist as her husband was.
Note this is merely my opinion. I think this will be a different election than we have all seen in over 16 years. Their is a strong Bush-Clinton polarization and many Americans including myself are ready to move on.
Version: 1
This map was generated under the assumption that either Rudy Guiliani or Fred Thompson is running on the Republican ticket with a VP of Duncan Hunter or Tom Tancrato, with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic canidate.
I believe Hillary to be a polarizing figure in American politics, and unlike her husband, is not able to convence the people she is more towards the center. I would say that the GOP may be able to take Pennsylvania without Bush running. From past election, which every way Penn votes, Delaware usually does too. Wisconsin is another possible GOP pick up also with NH.
I believe based on what I have been hearing that Florida is a safe state for the Republicans in this cycle. New Jersey and Conn. may come into play if Rudy gets the nomination.
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