National popular vote: Obama by 7%
(Obama 52.5%, McCain 45.5%, others 2.0%)

Alabama: McCain by 23%
Alaska: McCain by 11%
Arizona: McCain by 3%
Arkansas: McCain by 9%
California: Obama by 18%
Colorado: Obama by 8%
Connecticut: Obama by 19%
Delaware: Obama by 23%
District of Columbia: Obama by 90%
Florida: Obama by 4%
Georgia: McCain by 3%
Hawaii: Obama by 31%
Idaho: McCain by 28%
Illinois: Obama by 26%
Indiana: McCain by 1%
Iowa: Obama by 15%
Kansas: McCain by 13%
Kentucky: McCain by 13%
Louisiana: McCain by 11%
Maine: Obama by 16%
Maryland: Obama by 21%
Massachusetts: Obama by 22%
Michigan: Obama by 14%
Minnesota: Obama by 12%
Mississippi: McCain by 12%
Missouri: Obama by 2%
Montana: McCain by 1%
Nebraska: McCain by 28%
Nevada: Obama by 6%
New Hampshire: Obama by 11%
New Jersey: Obama by 16%
New Mexico: Obama by 13%
New York: Obama by 30%
North Carolina: Obama by 1%
North Dakota: McCain by 1%
Ohio: Obama by 5%
Oklahoma: McCain by 26%
Oregon: Obama by 17%
Pennsylvania: Obama by 10%
Rhode Island: Obama by 21%
South Carolina: McCain by 9%
South Dakota: McCain by 8%
Tennessee: McCain by 14%
Texas: McCain by 11%
Utah: McCain by 27%
Vermont: Obama by 25%
Virginia: Obama by 7%
Washington: Obama by 16%
West Virginia: McCain by 9%
Wisconsin: Obama by 13%
Wyoming: McCain by 25%


Edit (November 3, 2008):

-10% to Obama in Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

+10% to McCain in Alabama and Nebraska.

-10% to McCain in Montana and North Dakota.

Moved Pennsylvania from strong Obama to lean Obama.

Moved Florida and Ohio from lean Obama to tossup.

Moved South Carolina and South Dakota from strong McCain to lean McCain.

Moved Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota from lean McCain to tossup.

Moved Missouri from tossup McCain (>40%) to tossup Obama (>50%).

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