State McCain Obama
Alabama 62% 37%
Alaska 61% 36%
Arizona 55% 44%
Arkansas 54% 45%
California 44% 54%
Colorado 52% 47%
Connecticut 44% 54%
Delaware 46% 53%
DC 9% 89%
Florida 52% 47%
Georgia 58% 41%
Hawai'i 45% 54%
Idaho 68% 30%
Illinois 44% 55%
Indiana 60% 39%
Iowa 50% 49%
Kansas 62% 37%
Kentucky 60% 40%
Louisiana 57% 42%
Maine 45% 54%
Maryland 43% 56%
Massachusetts 37% 62%
Michigan 48% 51%
Minnesota 48% 51%
Mississippi 59% 40%
Missouri 53% 46%
Montana 59% 39%
Nebraska 66% 33%
Nevada 50% 48%
New Hampshire 49% 50%
New Jersey 46% 53%
New Mexico 50% 49%
New York 40% 58%
North Carolina 56% 44%
North Dakota 63% 36%
Ohio 51% 49%
Oklahoma 66% 34%
Oregon 47% 51%
Pennsylvania 48% 51%
Rhode Island 39% 59%
South Carolina 58% 41%
South Dakota 60% 38%
Tennessee 57% 43%
Texas 61% 38%
Utah 72% 26%
Vermont 39% 59%
Virginia 54% 45%
Washington 46% 53%
West Virginia 56% 43%
Wisconsin 49% 50%
Wyoming 69% 29%
TOTAL 51% 48%

State McCain Obama
Alabama 60% 39%
Alaska 63% 35%
Arizona 59% 40%
Arkansas 56% 43%
California 43% 55%
Colorado 50% 49%
Connecticut 41% 57%
Delaware 40% 59%
DC 8% 91%
Florida 52% 47%
Georgia 54% 43%
Hawai'i 35% 64%
Idaho 67% 32%
Illinois 40% 59%
Indiana 56% 43%
Iowa 45% 54%
Kansas 60% 39%
Kentucky 60% 39%
Louisiana 57% 42%
Maine 46% 53%
Maryland 40% 59%
Massachusetts 40% 59%
Michigan 48% 51%
Minnesota 48% 51%
Mississippi 56% 43%
Missouri 52% 47%
Montana 57% 42%
Nebraska 65% 34%
Nevada 50% 49%
New Hampshire 50% 49%
New Jersey 45% 55%
New Mexico 48% 51%
New York 40% 59%
North Carolina 52% 47%
North Dakota 60% 39%
Ohio 51% 48%
Oklahoma 68% 32%
Oregon 45% 54%
Pennsylvania 47% 52%
Rhode Island 39% 60%
South Carolina 58% 41%
South Dakota 57% 41%
Tennessee 60% 39%
Texas 57% 42%
Utah 71% 28%
Vermont 38% 61%
Virginia 51% 48%
Washington 45% 54%
West Virginia 58% 41%
Wisconsin 47% 52%
Wyoming 68% 30%
TOTAL 50.0% 50.0%

Although Palin won't deliver any states to McCain, she will likely solidify his lead in the West, where he was heretofore been performing disappointingly.

Alabama 60% 39%
Alaska 63% 35%
Arizona 59% 40%
Arkansas 56% 43%
California 43% 55%
Colorado 50% 49%
Connecticut 42% 56%
Delaware 44% 55%
DC 8% 91%
Florida 53% 46%
Georgia 55% 44%
Hawai'i 39% 60%
Idaho 67% 32%
Illinois 40% 59%
Indiana 57% 42%
Iowa 47% 52%
Kansas 60% 39%
Kentucky 61% 38%
Louisiana 59% 40%
Maine 43% 55%
Maryland 41% 58%
Massachusetts 40% 59%
Michigan 49% 50%
Minnesota 47% 52%
Mississippi 57% 42%
Missouri 54% 45%
Montana 57% 42%
Nebraska 65% 34%
Nevada 50% 49%
New Hampshire 50% 49%
New Jersey 45% 55%
New Mexico 49% 50%
New York 40% 59%
North Carolina 53% 46%
North Dakota 60% 39%
Ohio 51% 48%
Oklahoma 69% 31%
Oregon 46% 54%
Pennsylvania 48% 51%
Rhode Island 39% 60%
South Carolina 56% 43%
South Dakota 57% 41%
Tennessee 60% 39%
Texas 58% 41%
Utah 71% 28%
Vermont 38% 61%
Virginia 51% 48%
Washington 44% 56%
West Virginia 58% 41%
Wisconsin 47% 52%
Wyoming 68% 30%

State McCain Obama
Alabama 60% 39%
Alaska 55% 41%
Arizona 59% 40%
Arkansas 56% 43%
California 43% 55%
Colorado 50% 49%
Connecticut 42% 56%
Delaware 44% 55%
DC 8% 91%
Florida 53% 46%
Georgia 55% 44%
Hawai'i 39% 60%
Idaho 66% 33%
Illinois 40% 59%
Indiana 57% 42%
Iowa 47% 52%
Kansas 60% 39%
Kentucky 61% 38%
Louisiana 59% 40%
Maine 43% 55%
Maryland 41% 58%
Massachusetts 40% 59%
Michigan 49% 50%
Minnesota 47% 52%
Mississippi 57% 42%
Missouri 54% 45%
Montana 55% 45%
Nebraska 64% 35%
Nevada 50% 49%
New Hampshire 50% 49%
New Jersey 45% 55%
New Mexico 49% 50%
New York 40% 59%
North Carolina 53% 46%
North Dakota 57% 42%
Ohio 51% 48%
Oklahoma 69% 30%
Oregon 46% 54%
Pennsylvania 48% 51%
Rhode Island 39% 60%
South Carolina 56% 43%
South Dakota 56% 42%
Tennessee 60% 39%
Texas 58% 41%
Utah 70% 29%
Vermont 38% 61%
Virginia 51% 48%
Washington 44% 56%
West Virginia 58% 41%
Wisconsin 47% 52%
Wyoming 68% 30%
TOTAL 50% 50%

Here are my predicted percentages in a John McCain vs. Barack Obama race, ignroing vice-presidential picks and assuming a third-party vote similar to 2004 (1% in most states), with the swing respective to Bush-Kerry (due to rounding some percentages may seem somewhat off):

Alabama | 62-37 | D+1
Alaska | 57-39 | D+8
Arizona | 59-40 | R+9
Arkansas | 57-42 | R+5
California | 43-55 | D+2
Colorado | 49-49 | D+5 (Obama win)
Connecticut | 42-56 | D+4
Delaware | 45-54 | D+1
DC | 8-91 | D+3
Florida | 54-45 | R+4
Georgia | 59-41 | R+1
Hawai'i | 37-62 | D+16
Idaho | 66-33 | D+5
Illinois | 40-59 | D+9
Indiana | 58-41 | D+4
Iowa | 47-52 | D+6
Kansas | 60-39 | D+4
Kentucky | 61-38 | R+3
Louisiana | 57-42 | R+0
Maine | 43-55 | D+3
Maryland | 40-59 | D+6
Massachusetts | 40-59 | R+6
Michigan | 50-49 | R+4
Minnesota | 46-53 | D+4
Mississippi | 60-39 | R+1
Missouri | 52-47 | D+2
Montana | 56-42 | D+7
Nebraska | 64-35 | D+4
Nevada | 50-49 | D+2
New Hampshire | 50-49 | R+2
New Jersey | 46-53 | D+0
New Mexico | 49-50 | D+2
New York | 40-59 | D+1
North Carolina | 53-46 | D+5
North Dakota | 59-39 | D+7
Ohio | 50-49 | D+1
Oklahoma | 69-30 | R+8
Oregon | 46-54 | D+4
Pennsylvania | 49-50 | R+2
Rhode Island | 40-59 | R+2
South Carolina | 56-43 | D+4
South Dakota | 56-42 | D+7
Tennessee | 59-40 | R+5
Texas | 58-41 | D+6
Utah | 70-29 | D+5
Vermont | 38-61 | D+3
Virginia | 51-48 | D+5
Washington | 44-56 | D+5
West Virginia | 60-39 | R+8
Wisconsin | 49-50 | D+1
Wyoming | 68-30 | D+2

Based on these percentages, the total national popular vote would be around 51-49 (D+1), with McCain getting 286 EVs to Obama's 252.

Most McCain: Utah, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska
Most Obama: DC, Hawai'i, Vermont, Rhode Island/New York/Massachusetts/Maryland/Illinois

Largest swings: Hawai'i, Illinois, Arizona, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Alaska

Here are my predicted percentages in a John McCain vs. Barack Obama race, ignroing vice-presidential picks and assuming a third-party vote similar to 2004 (1% in most states), with the swing respective to Bush-Kerry (due to rounding some percentages may seem somewhat off):

Alabama | 62-37 | D+1
Alaska | 57-39 | D+8
Arizona | 59-40 | R+9
Arkansas | 54-45 | R+9
California | 44-54 | D+2
Colorado | 49-49 | D+5 (Obama win)
Connecticut | 42-56 | D+4
Delaware | 45-54 | D+1
DC | 8-91 | D+3
Florida | 54-45 | R+4
Georgia | 57-42 | D+2
Hawai'i | 37-62 | D+16
Idaho | 66-33 | D+5
Illinois | 40-59 | D+9
Indiana | 58-41 | D+4
Iowa | 47-52 | D+6
Kansas | 60-39 | D+4
Kentucky | 62-37 | R+5
Louisiana | 57-42 | R+0
Maine | 43-55 | D+3
Maryland | 42-57 | D+2
Massachusetts | 41-58 | R+8
Michigan | 49-50 | R+2
Minnesota | 46-53 | D+4
Mississippi | 60-39 | R+1
Missouri | 54-46 | R+1
Montana | 56-42 | D+7
Nebraska | 63-36 | D+6
Nevada | 50-49 | D+2
New Hampshire | 51-48 | R+2
New Jersey | 46-53 | D+0
New Mexico | 49-50 | D+2
New York | 42-57 | R+3
North Carolina | 55-45 | D+2
North Dakota | 59-39 | D+7
Ohio | 52-48 | R+1
Oklahoma | 69-30 | R+8
Oregon | 46-54 | D+4
Pennsylvania | 50-49 | R+3
Rhode Island | 42-57 | R+6
South Carolina | 56-43 | D+4
South Dakota | 56-42 | D+7
Tennessee | 60-39 | R+7
Texas | 58-41 | D+6
Utah | 70-29 | D+5
Vermont | 38-61 | D+3
Virginia | 52-47 | D+3
Washington | 45-55 | D+3
West Virginia | 60-39 | R+8
Wisconsin | 50-49 | R+1
Wyoming | 68-30 | D+2

Based on these percentages, the total national popular vote would be around 51-49 (D+1), with McCain getting 300 EVs to Obama's 238.

Most McCain: Utah, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska
Most Obama: DC, Hawai'i, Vermont, Illinois, Massachusetts

Largest swings: Hawai'i, Illinois, Alaska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana

I am suprised that Hillary Clinton did not become the Democratic nominee; I belived she could make it even after Virginia and Wisconsin. However, the results in Indiana and North Carolina have made it clear Barack Obama will be the nominee. It is far too unlikely that Clinton can catch up in the remaining primaries.

Thankfully, the long and dirty fight between Obama and Clinton has damanged the former's image and made him much easier to defeat. He is, demographically, a bad fit for the key swing states.

Obama will probably fare better than Kerry in several Western states (the Dakotas, Montana, Nebraska, Colorado, Nevada). However, most of these states are heavily Republican anyway and improving by a few percentage points won't help win win the electoral votes of any except Nevada and Colorado. New Mexico is again a swing state, but I believe that, unlike the other Western states, Obama does not have an advantage over McCain here. After all, he lost the Democratic caucus. Obama does enjoy an advantage in Iowa and it is probable he can bring the state into the Democratic column in 2008.

Moving towards the east and South, however, Obama does much worse. Oklahoma is virulently anti-Obama and McCain could even break 70% here, rivaling Utah for the most Republican state. Even with high black turnout, Obama does not have much hope in the Southern states. In the peripheral Southern states with low black populations (KY, TN, WV in particular) McCain seems poised to go over 60%. He can keep Arkansas and Missouri Republican. Florida leans Republican with Obama, who is a very poor demographic fit with the state.

Moving up towards the North, Obama is safe in his home state and in Minnesota, but endangered in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. McCain probably has a tiny advantage in the last two and could bring the former two into his camp if he runs a good campaign in both.

Obama will win with a ridiculous margin in the District of Columbia, likely breaking 90%. The Northeast will be safe Democratic, as usual, except for New Hampshire. Polling gives McCain an advantage here, but as in previous elections it is basically a tossup. Massachusetts does not seem too enthusiastic about Obama and, although they will certainly vote for him, they may be replaced as the most Democratic state by Vermont, the most Obama-friendly of the Northeastern states and one which is rapidly trending Democratic.

I am very proud I have stood with McCain even in the worst days of his campaign and that he was succeeded in becoming the Republican nominee. I look forward to the November against EITHER of the Dems.

Here I have chosen McCain vs. Clinton scenario. I understand many think Obama will win the nomination, but the following months look very favorable to Clinton. She will win solidly in PA, KY, and probably IN, and have an overwhelming margin in WV. But thats a dicussion for the Dem primary predictions.

State by state, taking into account all recent polls as well as other factors:
ALABAMA: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

ALASKSA: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

ARIZONA: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

ARKANSAS: A curious state. Against Obama, McCain secures a solid victory. Against Clinton, polls used to show a strong lead for this state's former first lady. The latest Rasmussen poll, however, shows a 7% McCain lead. No other poll has shown McCain even tied with Clinton, so I'll wait for further polls to decide whether to leave it Dem or change it to McCain.

CALIFORNIA: The Democratic trend will continue in 2008. Solidly Dem against McCain.

COLORADO: Against Clinton, pretty solid McCain. Obama could fare better and would make this state much more of a tossup.

CONNECTICUT: McCain will likely do better than Bush, but both Obama and Clinton will defeat him here.

DELAWARE: Solidly Dem.

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: Solidly Dem.

FLORIDA: Florida is trending Republican and all polls point to this trend continuing in 2008. McCain will defeat Clinton and Obama by a small margin, although Clinton can fare better than the Illinois senator.

GEORGIA: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

HAWAI'I: Solidly Dem (Obama would obviously do better margin-wise).

IDAHO: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

ILLINOIS: Solidly Dem (Obama would obviously do better, possibly breaking 60% or at least getting close).

INDIANA: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

IOWA: Obamamania is very strong here and Obama will have an edge if he's nominated. The state would lean Republican, however, against Clinton.

KANSAS: Solidly McCain against any Dem (Sebelius as a veep would make this state more interesting, but it would still lean heavily towards McCain).

KENTUCKY: Solidly McCain against any Dem, although Clinton can make it closer than Obama.

LOUISIANA: Solidly McCain against any Dem. It will continue its Republican trend.

MAINE: Leans Democrat against Clinton, more strongly so against Obama. I doubt McCain can win, although he will do better than Bush.

MARYLAND: Solidly Dem, but if Clinton is nominated it will be much closer than in past years (the latest Rasmussen poll shows them statistically tied).

MASSACHUSETTS: Solidly Dem, although McCain will do better than Bush. Clinton will do far better than Obama (the SurveyUSA polls have Obama doing far worse than he should be, with single-digit margins).

MICHIGAN: Has warmed up to the Republicans in recent weeks. Tossup, but I think McCain can win. Clinton probably does better than Obama.

MINNESOTA: Like Michigan, it was become more Republican in recent polling. Tossup, but still I think the Dems have an edge.

MISSISSIPPI: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

MISSOURI: Tossup, although recent polls give McCain a slight advantage. Both Dems would fare equally good/bad.

MONTANA: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

NEBRASKA: Solidly McCain against any Dem, that silly SurveyUSA poll notwithstanding.

NEVADA: The Dems could pick up this state with Obama. If Clinton wins the nomination, it goes in the Republican column.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Will again be a tossup. I think Obama can do better than Clinton, despite her primary victory.

NEW JERSEY: Leans Dem. This state has always been fools gold for the GOP.

NEW MEXICO: Another tossup. Obama can do better than Clinton, I think, an win the state. This Clinton, I'd say McCain has a minimal edge, like Rasmussen shows.

NEW YORK: Solidly Dem. It's trending towards that party.

NORTH CAROLINA: Leans McCain against any Dem.

NORTH DAKOTA: Solidly McCain against any Dem, that silly SurveyUSA poll notwithstanding.

OHIO: Yet again, it will be a tossup. It will lead Republican if Obama is nominated. Clinton can fare much better and win Ohio's 20 EVs, although both Dems loose against McCain in the latest Rasmussen poll.

OKLAHOMA: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

OREGON: Against Obama, solid Dem. Against Clinton, a tossup with a McCain advantage, as recent polls show

PENNSYLVANIA: An obvious tossup. Obama will fare much worse than Clinton can can loose PA's 21 votes. Both Dems loose in the latest Rasmussen and Strategic Vision polls and Obama losses in the latest SurveyUSA poll (Clinton is tied).

RHODE ISLAND: Solid Dem.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Solidly McCain against any Dem, that silly SurveyUSA poll notwithstanding.

SOUTH DAKOTA: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

TENNESSEE: Solidly McCain against any Dem. Clinton does better than Obama.

TEXAS: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

UTAH: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

VERMONT: Solidly Dem. McCain will be able to temporarily pause Vermont's violent turn to the left and can do better than Bush, but definitely can't win.

VIRGINIA: Looked like a tossup for a while, but in recent weeks it has gone back to the Republican column. It has been trending Democratic, but it extremely unlikely that either of the Dems can flip it this year, particularly with McCain's strong military support.

WASHINGTON: Against Obama, solid Dem. Against Clinton, tossup. Polls have shown her and McCain neck to neck. I believe that McCain can take this state for the GOP for the first time since 1984.

WEST VIRGINIA: The state loves Hillary. She will break 60% in the primary and can win it in the general. Obama will loose it against McCain.

WISCONSIN: Will be a very close election again. McCain will probably win against Clinton (Rasmussen give him a 12-point advantage, although it's unlikely the margin will be this high). Obama is favored if nominated.

WYOMING: Solidly McCain against any Dem.

McCain vs. Clinton

The Democratic race turned out much more competitive than I expected. I have chosen Hillary Clinton simply out of convenience: as it stands now both she and Obama have good chances of winning the Democratic nomination.

On the GOP side, McCain's victory in New Hampshire and good showing in Iowa (tied for 3rd) has tranformed him into a frontrunner. The latest polls show him and Huckabee leading the Republican race. Hopefully, he can capitalize on his NH victory and win in Michigan and the rest of the states.

McCain is clearly the best Republican candidate against any of the Democrats. Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson will not win any of the Kerry states and will probably loose some of the 2004 Bush states. Giuliani could have put some northeastern states in play, particularly NJ, but at the same time he looses support in some Republican states such as VA. McCain is the only GOP candidate that can keep most of the Bush states while at the same time making inroads in some of the states that voted Democratic in 2004.

CO: Will probably be close in 2008, although the Republicans will win. Both McCain and Giuliani defeat Clinton in the 11/28/2007 Rasmussen poll.

FL: One of the key states in the past two elections. In the latest poll, Public Policy Polling 1/4/2008, McCain defeats Clinton by 46-42. The only other Republican who defeats her is Huckabee; both Giuliani and Romney loose.

IA: According to SurveyUSA 1/6/2008, only Huckabee and McCain are competitive against Clinton. McCain fares best, defeating her 48-44.

KY: This state should be pretty solidly Republican, but in 2008 season polls Democrats and Republicans have been tied. In the latest poll, SurveyUSA 1/6/2008, all the Republicans tie Clinton except for McCain, who defeats her 51-41.

MA: The most solid Democratic state in the Union almost certainly won't go Republican in 2008. However, it is interesting that in the 12/15/2007 SurveyUSA poll, McCain looses to Clinton by only 43-53. He is the only Republican that breaks the 40% line in a match against Clinton.

MD: Rasmussen's 1/3/2008 poll of this usually solid Democratic state shows McCain basically tied with Clinton, 45-43. Although I think Baltimore is sufficiently Democratic to keep this state in the Dem column, it will be more competitive than usual with McCain on the ballot.

MO: McCain is statistically tied with Clinton 46-50 according to SurveyUSA 12/15/2007. Romney and Giuliani both loose against her.

NC: Has apparently shifted into the tossup column for 2008, although recent polls have shown Republicans getting a larger lead. Unfortunately, the latest poll to include McCain was Rasmussen 10/18/2007, which shows all the Republicans tied against her.

NH: A statistical tie for all the Republicans, 43-43 for McCain vs. Clinton, according to the latest poll (Rasmussen 9/16/2007).

NM: McCain defeats Clinton 48-45 in the most recent poll (SurveyUSA 12/15/2007). He is the only GOP candidate that wins this swing state, although most of the other Republicans are near the margin of error.

NV: Appears to be a swing state for 2008. Unfortunately, there hasn't been a McCain vs. Clinton poll from this state in a few months.

OH: McCain fares best of all the GOP candidates in the 1/6/2008 SurveyUSA poll, beating her by 48-46. All the other Republicans except Huckabee loose this vital state.

OR: Hasn't voted Republican since Reagan's 1984 landslide. All the Republicans loose against Clinton EXCEPT for McCain, who in the most recent poll (SurveyUSA 12/15/2007) is tied 46-46 and in previous polls has managed a slim victory.

PA: This key swing state will again be in play in 2008. Rasmussen's 1/3/2008 poll shows McCain leading Clinton 45-43. Romney isn't even competitive.

VA: Has become a swing state after Allen's defeat in 2006. Rasmussen 1/3/2008 shows McCain decisively defeating Clinton 49-38, while Romney manages no better than a tie.

WA: Has been solidly Democratic since 1984. Unsurprisingly, most of the Republicans loose to Clinton. However, McCain manages a statistical tie in the latest poll (SurveyUSA 12/15/2007), 47-49. In past polls, he has also tied.

WV: This state could be competitive in 2008, but there has been only one poll of this state, Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates 1/5/2007, which showed a decisive Democratic win. However, after the Iraq surge Republicans have probably recovered. I have decided to leave it Democratic until another poll is conducted.

WI: This state has been getting increasingly close in presidential elections. In the 12/15/2007 SurveyUSA poll all the Republican candidates at least get a statistical tie against Clinton, but only McCain managed to defeat her (49-42).

McCain vs. Clinton

Despite the recent tide in favor of Obama, I still think Clinton is the likeliest candidate to win the Democratic nomination. On the GOP side, McCain is experiencing an immense surge of support. Perhaps he is not yet a fronturnner, but who can honestly claim to be a frontrunner in this incredibly fluid race?

McCain is clearly the best Republican candidate against any of the Democrats. Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson will not win any of the Kerry states and will probably loose some of the 2004 Bush states. Giuliani could have put some northeastern states in play, particularly NJ, but at the same time he looses support in some Republican states such as VA. McCain is the only GOP candidate that can keep most of the Bush states while at the same time making inroads in some of the states that voted Democratic in 2004.

CO: Will probably be close in 2008, although the Republicans will win. Both McCain and Giuliani defeat Clinton in the 11/28/2007 Rasmussen poll.

FL: One of the key states in the past two elections. In the latest poll where McCain was included (Rasmussen 11/19/2007), McCain defeats Clinton 48-38. He does better against her than any of the other Republicans.

IA: All the Republicans are statistically tied against Clinton, although McCain performs best, defeating her 46-45 according to SurveyUSA 12/15/2007.

NC: Has apparently shifted into the tossup column for 2008, although recent polls have shown Republicans getting a larger lead. Unfortunately, the latest poll to include McCain was Rasmussen 10/18/2007, which shows all the Republicans tied against her.

NH: A statistical tie for all the Republicans, 43-43 for McCain vs. Clinton, according to the latest poll (Rasmussen 9/16/2007).

NM: McCain defeats Clinton 48-45 in the most recent poll (SurveyUSA 12/15/2007). He is the only GOP candidate that wins this swing state, although most of the other Republicans are near the margin of error.

NV: Appears to be a swing state for 2008. Unfortunately, there hasn't been a McCain vs. Clinton poll from this state in a few months.

MA: The most solid Democratic state in the Union almost certainly won't go Republican in 2008. However, it is interesting that in the 12/15/2007 SurveyUSA poll, McCain looses to Clinton by only 43-53. He is the only Republican that breaks the 40% line in a match against Clinton.

MO: McCain is statistically tied with Clinton 46-50 according to SurveyUSA 12/15/2007. Romney and Giuliani both loose against her.

OH: McCain fares best of all the GOP candidates in the 12/15/2007 SurveyUSA poll, tying with her 45-45. All the other Republicans loose this vital state.

OR: Hasn't voted Republican since Reagan's 1984 landslide. All the Republicans loose against Clinton EXCEPT for McCain, who in the most recent poll (SurveyUSA 12/15/2007) is tied 46-46 and in previous polls has managed a slim victory.

VA: Has become a swing state after Allen's defeat in 2006. The most recent poll (SurveyUSA 12/15/2007) shows Clinton defeating all the Republican candidates by margins greater than the margin of error, with the sole exception of McCain, who ties with Clinton (46-48).

WA: Has been solidly Democratic since 1984. Unsurprisingly, most of the Republicans loose to Clinton. However, McCain manages a statistical tie in the latest poll (SurveyUSA 12/15/2007), 47-49. In past polls, he has also tied.

WI: This state has been getting increasingly close in presidential elections. In the 12/15/2007 SurveyUSA poll all the Republican candidates at least get a statistical tie against Clinton, but only McCain managed to defeat her (49-42).

McCain vs. Clinton

Victory in Iraq is now within sights, after following a strategy McCain supported all along. Polls show a McCain surge among Republican primary voters, and in the RCP averages he has reached second place for the first time since June. The darkest days of the McCain are now past. He is in second-place in NH already in some polls and his New Hampshire Union Leader will hopefully thrust him to victory.

This map is based mostly on polls and past voting records. McCain leads Clinton or is tied in battleground states such as FL, IA, OH, NH, and NM. He is also the best GOP candidate against Hillary in past Republican states such as NC, VA, and KY. He has also the only Republican who can win in traditionally Democratic OR.

McCain vs. Clinton

Good news comes from Iraq every day: violence falling by 70% since the surge began, both Iraqi and American troop deaths falling, families moving back to Baghdad, alliances with Shi'ite and Sunni clerics, al-Qa'ida debilitated almost to complete defeat, and a growing trend in support for the war among the American public.

McCain has a lot to gain from these successes. He advocated a troop surge even before Bush announced it and has wholeheartedly supported the new strategy. Already, polls are showing McCain getting back to second-place in a nationwide primary. He is the best Republican candidate against Hillary Clinton nationally and in several key states. And while admittedly Sam Brownback never garnered significant support, his backing of McCain will hopefully gain him a few more voters.

This map is based on the most recent polls. McCain is beating Clinton in OR polls and is tied with her in WA polls. In NM, VA, and CO, he also has a large lead against her. Polls show him tied or slighly above Clinton in NH, FL, MO, NC, and OH. A victory in Iraq will probably strengthen his leads in several of these tossup states.

McCain vs. Clinton

This week was pretty good news for the GOP. On the Iraq front, more successes have been reported, with violence falling 70% since June and al-Qa'ida in Iraq so weakened that many commanders are calling for a declaration of victory against that organization. There is still a lot to do, particularly in the province of Nineveh and in eliminating the PKK, but victory in Iraq is nigh.

McCain also has received very good news. He is the best Republican against Hillary nationwide, with one poll showing only a 1% difference between the two. State by state he's also doing well. Polls in Oregon show him defeating Clinton and in Washington he is exactly tied. I'm being optimistic in this map and hope that the Iraq issue can turn around these traditionally Democratic states. McCain also has a substantial lead in New Mexico, surprisingly.

In more negative news for the GOP, North Carolina has been transfered to the tossup columns because of recent polls which show Democrats and Republicans basically tied.

I have become convinced that West Virginia will probably go Democratic in 2008. Polls also show a dwindling Republican lead in North Carolina but a closer race in Washington. A lot can change between now and election day and I believe that the United States will triumph in Iraq. That victory alone can change this map significantly, but the election will still be very close.

The most recent polls show Republicans' fortunes dwindling. Virginia appears to be trending towards the Democratic column. One poll also shows West Viriginia as solidly Democratic, although I'll await further confirmation. Leads in TN and KY also seem less certain. On the other hand, Republicans are growing in NH and one poll shows McCain stastically tied with Clinton.

This is my scenario for a Clinton vs. McCain fight. McCain is my candidate for the Republican nomination which is why I chose him as the Republican. I chose Clinton as the Democratic simply because the polls show her winning virtually every primary except Iowa.

Since my last prediction, the Republicans' fortunes have fallen significantly. Polls have shown very tight races in Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, and Iowa, and growing Democratic leads elsewhere.

I personally support McCain for the Republican nomination, though I am well aware his chances of winning are dwindling. Nonetheless, I try to be optimistic. He is the Republican in this prediction. For the Democratic candidate, I chose Hillary Clinton because she is clearly the front-runner. Unlike many, I don't think Bloomberg will run and therefore I didn't include him.

This scenario is based on polls and the 2004 results. New Mexico is clearly moving left and is fairly certain to go Democratic in 2008, no matter if the Republican candidate is McCain, Giuliani or Romney. Same thing with New Hampshire.

Wisconsin seemed to be promising for Republicans, but given Bush's currently unpopularity, it is unlikely to vote for the Republican candidate in 2008. Connecticut and perhaps New Jersey could go Republican if Giuliani is the candidate, but this becomes unlikely if McCain or Romney is chosen.

Oregon may be surprising. I think this state will be quite close if McCain is nominated. Quite a few polls (yes, I know, it's too early in the race to be trustworthy, but still) show McCain defeating Clinton. Giuliani and Romney on the other hand both loose against her.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida will yet again be very close states. Pennsylvania has greater chances of going Republican if Giuliani is the candidate, but with McCain vs. Clinton it will probably choose the latter. Ohio will be exceedingly close and I rather arbitrarily colored it blue.

I think the GOP in 2008 has greatest chances of winning if either Giuliani or McCain are the candidates. I can't see Romney and Fred Thompson winning against any of the Democratic front-runners. If these last two are the GOP candidate, the Democrats will win most of the tossup states and therefore the White House.

• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Presidential Prediction Home
• Update My 2008 Presidential Prediction Map