Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	329
Rep	209
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	286
Rep	163
Ind	0
Tos	89

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+7	0	+77	0	0	0	20	2	252	+77
Rep	0	0	0	-7	0	-77	24	3	209	-77
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
92	47	40	4	1

Analysis

Final Prediction:

National: Obama 51.79-46.92

Alabama: McCain 59-40
Alaska: McCain 57-38
Arizona: McCain 53-45
Arkansas: McCain 54-44
California: Obama 59-40
Colorado: Obama 51-47
Connecticut: Obama 57-41
Delaware: Obama 58-40
District of Columbia: Obama 90-9
Florida: Obama 50-49
Georgia: McCain 53-46
Hawaii: Obama 65-32
Idaho: McCain 66-33
Illinois: Obama 60-38
Indiana: McCain 51-48
Iowa: Obama 54-45
Kansas: McCain 59-39
Kentucky: McCain 55-43
Maine: Obama 57-42
Louisiana: McCain 56-43
Maryland: Obama 60-39
Massachusetts: Obama 61-37
Michigan: Obama 56-43
Minnesota: Obama 55-44
Mississippi: McCain 54-45
Missouri: Obama 49.7-McCain 49.1
Montana: McCain 50-47-3
Nebraska: McCain 60-39
Nevada: Obama 51-47
New Hampshire: Obama 53-46
New Jersey: Obama 58-41
New Mexico: Obama 54-44
New York: Obama 64-34
North Carolina: McCain 50-49
North Dakota: McCain 52-46
Ohio: McCain 49.9-49.2
Oklahoma: McCain 62-37
Oregon: Obama 55-43
Pennsylvania: Obama 53-46
Rhode Island: Obama 60-39
South Carolina: McCain 54-45
South Dakota: McCain 55-44
Tennessee: McCain 57-42
Texas: McCain 55-44
Utah: McCain 64-35
Vermont: Obama 66-33
Virginia: Obama 51-47
Washington: Obama 57-42
West Virginia: McCain 54-45
Wisconsin: Obama 54-44
Wyoming: McCain 66-33

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 12

Obama 51.5-McCain 47.2

Final PV and State-by-State predictions coming tomorrow

Version: 11

Obama 51.9-46.8. OH is such little bitch.

Version: 10

Obama 52-47

Version: 9

We'll go with a 53-46 national margin for now

Version: 7

no clue

Version: 6

YES WE CAN vs. Johnny Boy

Version: 5

Updated out of boredom. Clinton vs. Giuliani. I'm probably overestimating Hildawg's performance, but this is October 2007 so who cares

Version: 3

Giuliani vs. Clinton.

Version: 2

yeah. cliched map, but predicting a swing of a couple of points nationally towards the Dems.

Version: 1

I actually think the Republicans will retain the White House due to my usual pessimism, but based upon current polls, the Dems obviously have an advantage.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	2	1	47	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	0/52	0/52	0/104	0.0%	1	-	228	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	2	1	34	T	456
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	2	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	41/56	92/112	82.1%	13	1	178	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	4	1	96	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	2	1	9	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	23/52	8/52	31/104	29.8%	7	-	147	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	18/49	11/49	29/98	29.6%	5	-	132	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	182	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	19	1	46	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	30/36	65/72	90.3%	22	1	1	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	296/420	220/420	516/840	61.4%

Links

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