Comments History
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hideVersion: 36
Alphabetically through Iowa. Will finish Monday.
Version: 35
The news and endorsements continue to break for Obama and against McCain.
Obama is winning early voting by a huge margin and the undecideds will break to the winner, Obama. Plus, some dispirited Republicans stay home.
Obama and the Clintons spend the final days hitting key races for Senate, Governor and U.S. House. Obama goes to Mississippi to make a personal appeal for himself and Ronnie Musgrove.
Version: 34
This map assumes Obama hits Omaha and Mississippi in the closing days of the campaign. The Nebraska visit will have him on the stage with Warren Buffet and promote the candidacy of Scott Kleeb.
The Mississippi visit will be to rally Black voters to Ronnie Musgrove and to make the case for Mississippi "Whites" to embrace the future and support the Dem ticket.
There will also be visits to Georgia and Texas.
McCain, Palin and the GOP have lost. They know it. The blame game has begun. Prominent Republicans are endorsing Obama. Republican operatives are attacking each other in the media.
The Arizona result is based on polling and my observation that Arizona has generally been trending Dem for awhile and McCain has lost the seniors and Obama has done well with Latinos.
On election night Obama has won when the networks call Virginia and PA for Obama.
By winning PA Obama will have beat back McCain's hail mary there. At that point Obama only needs to win two of the following three: CO, MN and VA.
Obama seems solid in MN and very likely in CO. If Obama wins VA by enough that they can call the state early there's no chance McCain wins both CO and MN.
Version: 33
Toned it down a bit, but McCain's campaign has collapsed.
The media has called the election.
Republican operatives are more concerned about trying to keep the disaster from tainting themselves than getting Republican candidates elected. And the main form these GOP operatives use is to blame other Republicans in the media.
The McCain campaign is so far off message, no one knows what the message is supposed to be.
The attacks on Obama are falling flat. Obama looks presidential. McCain looks like a loser. And Palin... people think she's overstayed her 15 minutes of fame.
The economic crises has people scared. The experts don't understand it clearly. And people know that when things are bad--really bad--there's one party that has a history of looking after Americans who are "down on their luck" and it isn't the party that advocates cutting taxes on the rich.
Maybe Obama is an exceedingly talented con artist, but he seems to be channeling some of our most successful presidents, Clinton, Reagan, JFK, FDR and Lincoln. McCain seems to be channeling Bob Dole, at least on McCain's good days. On his bad days, I got no idea what McCain's doing.
Version: 32
The bottom has fallen out from the McCain campaign. The early votes are being cast for Obama/Biden. The people waiting are hearing and seeing more and more bad stuff about McCain.
The McCain campaign is being kept off-message. What is the message? The economy? Or Obama's character?
McCain is losing on everything.
John McCain and Sarah Palin will be the two people sacrificed to cleanse the country of its sins of electing and following George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.
Version: 31
This is about McCain's best case scenario. He'd have to win the following states where he is currently behind or tied in polling:
Minnesota (O+6.9)
New Hampshire (O+6.6)
ME-02 (unknown)
North Dakota (O+3.6)
Nevada (O+3.2)
North Carolina (+3.1)
Florida (O+2.8)
Ohio (O+1.7)
Missouri (O+1.3)
Indiana (M+1.7)
Montana (M+3.7)
And McCain still loses as long as Obama closes the deal in Virginia (O+8.9) and Colorado (O+6.6).
What about Pennsylvania (O+15.3)? There's no early voting, but swing `over fifteen points in the final two weeks? In a state carried by Gore and Kerry? A state that now has a Dem governor?
Does McCain have the money to compete in so many states? Does he have the field operation?
The story is how do the Congressional races, governor races and state legislative races turn out.
McCain has lost. Bush's legacy has been a heavy burden, sure. But McCain has run arguably the worst, most incoherent campaign for a major party nominee in a long time.
Version: 30
Obama over McCain: the blowout.
Republicans can now begin discussing why they lost in 2008.
Version: 29
This is the conservative "if the election were held today" scenario.
I expect the McCain campaign to collapse even more between now and E Day. The McCain campaign will vacillate between wanting to get back in the game (more and more desperate attacks) and wanting to preserve some dignity.
McCain will be perceived as indecisive and not in-charge of his own campaign.
Obviously the economy is taking a toll on the McCain campaign too.
The chief drama on election night will be the down-ballot results and listening to Republicans explain the party's catastrophic losses.
Version: 28
To paraphrase Dwayne Johnson, "Do you smell what Barack is cooking!"
The McCain campaign is drifting off into goofier and goofier personal stuff as the economy tanks.
McCain doesn't ever acknowledge he did anything wrong as part of the Keating Five. Dude has some sort of issue that keeps him from keeping it real.
And what about McCain's health? Is he shooting straight with us or is he setting the country up for two or three years of President Sarah Palin?
The momentum is turning against Republicans and incumbents.
Obama rides the wave of change to the biggest Dem victory since 1964.
Version: 27
McCain is becoming more erratic and unpredictable as the pressures mount. Palin is a media disaster.
The economy is going to be the dominant issue. Obama wins by comfortable margin.
If there was justice Baldwin, Barr, McKinney and Nader would get about 30% of the vote as a protest of the mismanagement of the Republicans and Democrats. Unfortunately, for them there isn't justice and they are playing in a rigged game.
Version: 26
McCain is sufficiently off message that he will lose.
Version: 25
Comfortable win for Obama/Biden over McCain/Palin with relatively weak showings by minor party candidates (Barr, Nader, McKinney, Baldwin, etc.).
McCain/Palin campaign continues to be reacting to problems, many of the candidates and campaigns own making until elections.
Obama/Biden generally seem more competent, if not inspiring, to the electorate.
Version: 24
Among other problems with the McCain candidacy, I don't think Palin is going to make it until election day.
Version: 23
Obama/Biden defeats McCain/Palin (?) with minor candidates getting about 5% total.
Version: 22
The big blowout.
Version: 21
The blowout cometh.
Version: 20
Team Obama does a bang-up job on GOTV, GOP support depressed and suffering from a small amount of the base voting Libertarian or Constitution Party.
Version: 19
Obama wins Dem base solidly with minimal erosion to McKinney (Green) and other minor party candidates. Dems are highly energized and do first-rate job at GOTV.
McCain has trouble with defections to Bob Barr (Libertarian) and Alan Keyes (Constitution). Plus the GOP base isn't energized for GOTV. Many big business Republicans see the handwriting on the wall and either sit-out the election or contribute to Obama and the Dems b/c they realize Dems are going to control executive and legislative branches for at least four years and likely eight or more.
Version: 18
Obama blow-out of McCain with Barr (Libertarian), McKinney (Green), Keyes (Constitution) and Nader (independent) also playing in the national mix.
Version: 17
Barr (Lib) gets 3-5%, McKinney (Green) gets 0.6-3%. Obama beats McCain handily.
Version: 16
Obama (Dem)
McCain (GOP)
Barr (Libertarian)
McKinney (Green)
somebody (Constitution)
Version: 15
Obama beats McCain by wide margin.
Version: 14
Obama/Selebius vs. McCain/Giuliani
Version: 13
The GOP determines that Huck is some combination of unelectable and unacceptable.
The big business Republicans hatch a scheme where Huckabee's ticket will compete for electoral votes in some states and Bloomberg's ticket will compete for electoral votes in states where they judge Bloomberg will be more competitive.
The end game is to force Huck to accept VP in the Electoral College.
Needless to say, the scheme doesn't come close to working. Once Obama nails down the Electoral Votes he needs he begins to campaign for key Senate seats, governorships and House seats.
Version: 12
Clinton/Clark (Dem)--38%
McCain/Huckabee (GOP)--38%
Bloomberg/Hagel (ind)--15%
Paul/? (Kucinich, maybe) (Lib)--4%
McKinney/? (Green)--4%
Alan Keyes/? (Constiution)--0.2%
All independent electoral votes go to Bloomberg/Hagel, but McKinney is close in DC.
Version: 11
Huckabee-McCain vs. Obama-Nunn, the blow-out scenario
Version: 10
Huckabee/Hagel vs. Edwards/Gore (no strong minor party or independent candidates). This is sorta a best-case scenario for the GOP.
Version: 9
Dems: Hillary Rodham Clinton-Obama
GOP: Huckabee-Colin Powell
Lib or indepdent: Ron Paul-Lou Dobbs
Green: McKinney Camejo
This is sorta the best case scenario for a Paul/Dobbs ticket.
If this happened, it would create the scenario where the Paul/Dobbs ticket and the GOP ticket could cut a deal to decide the president and VP.
In this scenario I imagine Paul would claim the top spot and Huckabee would get VP. Powell would reprise his role as secretary of state. And Lou Dobbs would go back to cable and be an unofficial advisor.
The Democrats would control Congress by formidable majorities.
Version: 8
Democratic ticket
Republican ticket
Ron Paul (Libertarian)
Cynthia McKinney (Green)
Lou Dobbs (independent)
McKinney carries Georgia and Vermont.
Paul carries Texas and Alaska.
Dobbs gets a Congressional district in Nebraska.
Ironically Dobbs gets more votes than McKinney on the national level, but fewer electoral votes.
The Republicans blame Dobbs for losing.
Version: 7
The percentages are low on this map b/c I'm assuming Ron Paul runs as a Libertarian or independent, Cynthia McKinney runs as a Green and Bloomberg runs as an independent.
I tend to think Huckabee will get the GOP nod.
I attended a Vet's Day event with some far Left types. Ron Paul is making inroads into the anti-war activists.
People are really pissed.
Version: 6
A storm is brewing for the GOP.
Demoralizing activists. Wrong on issues. Poor fundraising. Unappealing candidates. Powerful interest groups seeing the need to court Democrats.
Version: 5
People hate the Iraq occupation.
The GOP made itself the party of Bush.
Other than appeals to bigotry, there's no policy reason to support the GOP.
The Democrats are not only going to win the presidency, but the party will gain ground in Congress and state legislators. Democratic control will look insurmountable.
Version: 4
Strong independent ticket gets 5% with other independents getting 1%.
Dems win in a blow-out like 1964, 1972, 1980 or 1984.
Version: 3
Edwards/Obama
Romney/Thompson
Hagel/Bloomberg
Version: 2
I see Dems as being hungrier to win and Republicans more dissatisfied with their party, hence willing to defect.
Also, Hagel and Bloomberg are Republicans, so it kinda makes sense that they will appeal more to Republican voters.
Version: 1
Hagel/Bloomberg or Bloomberg/Hagel in race.
2008 President
2008 Senate
2008 Governor
2007 Governor
2006 U.S. Senate
2006 Governor
2004 President