PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - Angry_Weasel (D-VA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:33

Prediction Map
Angry_Weasel MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Angry_Weasel MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem311
 
Rep227
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem291
 
Rep142
 
Ind0
 
Tos105
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+60+59000202252+59
Rep000-60-59253227-59
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
93483942
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Oh, ok. This is my last prediction. 51.5-47-1.5 :P


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 32

Final Prediction?


Version: 31

I am reluctant to make VA too solid.... I think the Joe the Plumber might narrow this race by a point or two before backfiring and making Obama win by even more.


Version: 30

Well, the ass rucking continues...Onto the second tier of swing states!


Version: 29

The map starts to move because of Quinipiac.


Version: 28

Gee...big surge in Obama's numbers, but I only have Virginia shored up.


Version: 27

The McCain bounce has faded, but it appears that the red states will still get more 60%+s than the blue states. However, there have been very exciting polls from Hawaii, that show that they may even go to 70%.


Version: 25

BIIIGGG BOOST TO OBAMAMANIA- Let's see how he deals with the lead.

Obama- 52.1% 299 EV
McCain-46.7% 239 EV
Barr- .6% 0 EV
Nader- .2% 0 EV
Field- .4% 0 EV

Swing States-

WEST
Oregon- 56-43
Nevada- 50-49
New Mexico- 51-48
Colorado- 52-47
WILDCARDS-
Montana- 45-54
Alaska- 45-54
Arizona- 44-55

MIDWEST
Missouri- 49-50
Iowa- 53-46
Minnesota- 57-42
Wisconsin- 51-48
Michigan- 50-49
Ohio- 49.9-48.7
WILDCARDS-
Indiana- 44-55

EAST
Pennsylvania- 51-48
New Hampshire- 50-49
WILDCARDS
Connecticut- 55-44
Deleware- 54-45
New Jersey- 54-45
Maine- 56.5-42.5

SOUTH
Virginia- 49-50
Florida- 46-53
WILDCARDS
Arkansas- 42-57
Georgia- 44-55
South Carolina- 46-53
North Carolina- 48-51
Mississippi- 43-56


Version: 24

Brokered Electorate-

Obama 49.9% EV 269
McCain 49.3% EV 269

I still don't know why New Hampshire is strong for McCain if Obama is so strong in Colorado.


Version: 23

April 22

Swings-

Nevada- Obama 51, McCain 47
New Mexico- Obama 48, McCain 50
Colorado- Obama 49.5, McCain 48.5
Iowa- Obama 51, McCain 47
Wisconsin- Obama 50, McCain 48
Michigan- Obama 49.5, McCain 48.5
Pennsylvania- Obama 49.5, McCain 48.5
New Hampshire- Obama 50, McCain 48
Virginia- Obama 46, McCain 52

Locked-Up Swings-
Oregon- Obama 53, McCain 45
Minnesota- Obama 53, McCain 45
Missouri- Obama 44, McCain 54
Ohio- Obama 46, McCain 52
Florida- Obama 44, McCain 54
Arizona- Obama 38, McCain 60
Arkansas- Obama 39, McCain 59


Wild Cards-
Alaska- Obama 44, McCain 54
Montana- Obama 44, McCain 54
Connecticut- Obama 53, McCain 45


Version: 22

April 1.


Version: 21

McCain v. Obama


Version: 20

Willy Mittens v. Clinton

52-47


Version: 18

Clinton v. McCain


Version: 17

Clinton 45
Romney 39
Bloomberg 15
Nader 1

Bloomberg Strengthens Romney in the east but weakens Romney in the west as secular republicans give Bloomberg a spin.


Version: 16

Romney v. Clinton. No suprises. Romney 47, Clinton 52.


Version: 15

Clinton v. McCain.

McCain sweeps the west but gets raped in the East.


Version: 14

Romney v. Clinton

Clinton 53%
Romney 46%


Version: 13

I did not know that Huckabee was caving into the "race baiters" (as Huck called them) on immigration. This is my new map.


Version: 12

Yup. CO will go dem before NM. Hispanics should like Huckabee. Moderate Libertarian Ex-GOP indy suburbanites will not.


Version: 11

Hickabee v. Obama


Version: 10

Clinton v. Huckabee....and no. He will not do well in the Southwest.


Version: 9

Go ahead, make my next 4 years.


Version: 8

Whoever gets to 15% against Guiliani on RR will be analyzed next.

-....And it's Romney!


Version: 7

Guiliani v. Clinton.


Version: 6

Clintion .v Huckabee.


Version: 5

Colorado will swing before Arkansas or Florida, even if Clinton is doing bad there and better there.


Version: 4

Using RR on likely nominees.. Pro-military, pro-choice Guiliani sweeps Colorado but gets stymied in Florida.


Version: 3

I actually think that Colorado will swing and that New Mexico will be sealed. Let's see what happens.


Version: 2

I was playing with the best case scenario for Dems and the GOP today, in each event, the score was about 360 to about 160.


Version: 1

PROVISIONS: This is the scenario where the parties come into 2008 equally matched.


THIRD PARTY PREDICTION:
Doubting that there will be a major third party this year,
I will not include Bloomberg, Nader and will only account for a third percent for Greens, Libertarians and Constitutionalists, each...and maybe .1% for those joke ballots and non-serious candidates(or serious ones that are run out of their mom's basements).

SWING STATES:

Oregon- Kerry won Oregon by 3 points in 2004. I predict it will go blue by 5 points, given the partisan trend that is limited by an unpopular democratic governor. 52-47-1

Nevada: Bush won Nevada by 2 points in 2004. With the slow partisan trend towards democrats (there are now as many dems as GOPers in this state with secular independents), and growing presence minorities and unions in Las Vegas, I predict that Nevada will go 50-49-1 in the next election.

New Mexico: Bush won by 1 point here. Though there is not much of a partisan trend, there is unlikely to be another conservative who appeals well to pro-life, anti-gay minorites (which new catholic immigrants are and that Bush was known for courting). Also, with the new emphasis on the Southwest that the democrats have on building a base on minorities and secular moderates(which the west is know for), I predict this state will go 52-47-1.

Colorado: Bush won by 4.6 points here in 2004. With the DNC being held here and the growth of a secular and urban middle class, I expect to see a vigorous shift to the left here as it is the Dem's senate seat to lose(It will probably be Schaffer versus Udall and though Udall is a solid liberal, Schaffer is basically the Tom Coburn of Colorado). However, because of the hawkish Air Force who will want to stay in Iraq or attack Iran and the influx of religious conservatives, I expect the GOP will win this state by a few thousand or hundred votes. This could be the site of a recount if it really mattered and state law allowed for it. 49.7-49.2-1

Florida: Bush won here by a


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 53/56 46/56 99/112 88.4% pie 1 340 48T684
P 2016 President 49/56 31/56 80/112 71.4% pie 4 1 246T678
P 2012 President 56/56 49/56 105/112 93.8% pie 2 48 4T760
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 33 1 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 5 0 96T407
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 20 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 3 2 65T465
Aggregate Predictions 278/293 210/293 488/586 83.3% pie


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