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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:75

Prediction Map
bonncaruso Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
bonncaruso Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem375
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem375
 
Rep159
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+100+123000202252+123
Rep000-100-123213163-123
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
100504442
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This is my final prediction, 11/04/2008.

Obama will win in a national landslide.

Poll Convergence 12 is here, in full detail.

The complete analysis (distillation) of PC 12 is here.

According to the strict statistics:

Obama: 341
McCain: 171
Tossups: 26 (NC, IN)

According to the strict statistics, without tossups:

Obama: 356
McCain: 182

But I have allowed 1% in all of this for personal feeling on the issue and I made some changes that I stand behind. This is all explained in the analyis, so go read it.

Based on 99% statistic and 1% gut feeling, here my altered projection, without tossups:


Obama: 30 states, 375 EV (IN, MO, MT to Obama)
McCain: 21 states, 163 EV (ND to McCain)
EV Margin: Obama + 212

--------------------------------

Tomorrow, we will all know.

This statistics project has been the most exhausting project of my adult life. I am glad we have come to the end of this long road.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-04 @ 09:07:50
Once again, here is the complete analysis, including the statistical shift for MO and IN and MT and the gut feeling shift for ND.

Last Edit: 2008-11-04 @ 17:31:35
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 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-04 @ 14:37:10
Nearly identical with my prediction map! I beleive that the only differences are in percentages - you have DC at 90%, VT at 70%, CT & CA at 60%, and NV at 50%. I have them each a notch lower. I had CT & CA at 60% in my version 21, but dialed them back yesterday.

In confidence, I have ND & GA tossups, & NE1 & 2 & WV lean.

Good luck!
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-04 @ 16:45:32
Is there evidence for Vermont >70%?
Optimistic but realistic.
Pure Bonn. :-)
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 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-11-04 @ 16:55:51
Mmm...I STILL don't see MO happening. Guess I'm going to have to eat that one. Good luck all...prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-04 @ 17:43:33
Yes, there is evidence for this.

Vermont tends to jump up to 6 points for a candidate it is crazy about. So, with the latest polls going as high as +36, going to +40 is entirely possible.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-06 @ 16:38:18
Well, it's looking more and more like I missed the call on MO, but the rest is right on the money, +/- a couple of margins. But until the remaining 3 million votes are all counted, who knows???prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-06 @ 16:47:38
The only percentages you missed that I can see is HI & MA. You are probably in select company for having accurately projected VT as 70%+ and DC at 90%+!

Seems like we were just discussing HI being Obama's strongest state. Someone must have it as 70%+.

Kudos. Especially to all who accurately predicted Indiana. :)

ps - has VT slipped below 70% since the early returns?

Last Edit: 2008-11-06 @ 16:55:59
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-06 @ 16:59:26
I have already done a preliminary comparative analysis of the results of Nov. 4th, election night, with the averages of the final polling and the results of the GE in 2004. These numbers are just preliminary numbers, until the official results are cast in stone, so to speak, but the numbers speak a clear language all on their own.

Here is the report.

When the end tallies are official, I will re-do the report and enhance it.

Go read it. Fpr those who may not be hanging around here, come visit my blog, which I will keep up and running for a long time.

Oh, and BTW:


2004:

Bush - 62,040,610 votes


2008:

Obama (current total): 64,417,303, and rising.

This means that Obama has garnered more votes than any other candidate in american political history.

Also, in the analysis to Poll Convergence 12 (final), which you can read here, I predicted the following the following percentages for the two candidates:

Obama: 52.77%
McCain: 45.23%

Here the current percentage statistics:

Obama: 52.47%
McCain: 46.21%

Current deviation:

Obama: -0.30%
McCain: +0.97%

Now, with around 2.5 to 3 million votes yet to count, it is very possible that Obama will come up to 52.77-52.80 and McCain down to maybe 46.00%, but not down to 45.23% - so my call on Obama was very, very close and may end up being exact. But my call on McCain was off by about 1%.

--------------------------

Remember the 60 year electoral study I did in November 2007, starting with this end analysis? Well, once the tallies for 2008 are official, I will do a new 100, 60 and 48 year study. Stay posted.
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-06 @ 17:15:05
Bonn also missed the percentages in MT, CT, (though they're both so close around 50 and 60 he could be right in the end), ND, WY, AK, AZ, VT (VT is only 67% Obama right now with 99% of precincts reporting) and missed the call in MO, though it was so close...
And we need to get the results in NE-03 and ME-01 to know whether they're >60%.

Which means 99 to 101 out of 112 are right, or 88.4 to 90.2%.
Great job, especially on Indiana which was an awesome insight.

I'm curious to see a map that got all three MO, IN and NC right. Especially both MO and IN. I got MO and NC but missed IN.
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-06 @ 17:42:01
Good job and an analysis worth reading

Last Edit: 2008-11-06 @ 18:20:02
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 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-07 @ 01:15:46
No, Bonn is right on in CT: 60.2, and MT: 49.7.

I have the same results map, though I think Bonn outdid me on percentages.

I've seen 2 or 3 maps with IN, MO, & NC correct. I have yet to see any with those three right + NE-2 for Obama, which I think will be the ultimate result.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-07 @ 07:46:54
Apparently, the race in NE-02 is not decided.

Here the preliminary numbers out of Omaha, however, there are between 16,000-17,000 early and provisional ballots to be counted, mostly out of Douglas County.

The statistical probability is EXTREMELY high that Nebraska will split it's electors for the first time in history and that Obama will take NE-02.

Wow.


And guys, as for percentages, I would still wait till everything is cast in stone - then I will do the report again.

Last Edit: 2008-11-07 @ 10:34:37
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-07 @ 10:12:03
You're right about that. For instance, Indiana might still be >50%, in which case you'd be wrong.
Why is it so long? It's been three days now. In France, the local results are printed the very next day in national papers (and I love to read them nearly line-by-line).

I thought McCain was up in NE-02. There again, my info is probably out-of-date already. And people don't seem to sure about the Missouri call either.

Anyway, whatever these results turn out to be, great job.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-07 @ 10:17:13
Because of federalism, each state can set it's own deadlines for counting the overseas vote, the absentee ballots and the provisional ballots. It can take up to 10 days in some cases.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-07 @ 10:18:11
And you are right, Obama could go over 50% in IN, in which case my % call would be wrong, however, according to stats, there are far less outstanding votes in IN than elsewhere.prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-07 @ 10:39:21
Federalism...
In France, almost every polling place works the very same way, there is neither early voting nor provisional ballots (we only have absentee voting and then someone else has to cast your ballot -someone you can trust, for instance I'll give mine to my mother next year). And since we don't have an electoral college, we just count overseas votes in the popular vote.
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 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-11-07 @ 11:53:00
Yehhaw! Obama wins :). That said, my prediction was lame as hell; I miss-called three states!prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-08 @ 03:23:04
We talked a bit during the year about the possible impact of third party candidacies, especially that of Bob Barr. Obviously, there was no decisive impact on the national result. Nor was there a decisve effect in GA, which was the focus of much of the Barr discussion. In Indiana, however, Barr pulled 29,000 some votes, exceeding Obama's margin of roughly 26,000. Speculation would be that most of these votes would have gone to McCain. In North Carolina, Barr got double the number of votes as Obama's margin.

As for Nader, he pulled nearly three times the number of votes than McCain's margin in Missouri.

I found this interesting.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 04:31:41
Well, we still do not know 100% over MO, but it looks like I mis-called one state and we all practically mis-called NE-02, because I do think that no one really expected this thorough a wave for Obama.

I did put NE-02 on the battleground reports about 2 weeks before the GE, but unfortunately, there was only one poll to work with, and therefore no reliable way to measure trends and shifts in the CD without actually living there.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 08:41:01
Needless to say, this is the most impressive and also most creative win for a democrat since 1964, I would venture to say.

And when the end totals are set in stone, then I can also present a number of record breakers for Obama and a number of superlatives.

Last Edit: 2008-11-08 @ 08:44:03
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 08:47:16
For instance, IL was the largest margin for a DEM ever and the second largest margin for both parties, right behind 1904.

Last Edit: 2008-11-08 @ 08:47:33
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 09:39:28
And if the trend in NC continues, then Obama will have the record for the closest squeaker in this state and knock George H.W. Bush (41) out of first place (1992). But like I said, wait until every vote is officially in the record and the percentages are emblazoned on Mt. Sinai :)prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-08 @ 13:03:04
I beleive that Liberalrocks & Demboy each called NE-02 for Obama, although they also called MO for him. If Liep scores CDs the same as states, these two, Rock and whoblizall, who had IN & MO correct (presumably) would be tied for state accuracy. I don't think anyone got IN + MO + NE02 correct, though there may be one hiding in the inaccessible depths of the site. Who, BTW, had incredible percentage accuracy, with only NC being slightly off with a prediction of 50%+ & MO, also slight, at 50% for McCain. Kudos to who.

I gave into polling indicating that Obama was doing better in MO than IN, despite my hunch from earlier polling backed up by Obama's 'head start' here with the late primary, & personal witnessing the enthusiasm gap, that this was not the case. This and my failure to call 60%+ in CA (somehow disuaded by geceres) and 70%+ in HI on my final map were my biggest "DOH"s!

For my late map, I relied heavily on 538.com for percentages, and backed off a number of higher projections in my second to last map (VT, HI, CT, CA & MA), mainly out of nervousness from viewing last minute ads on Rev.Wright and the coal issue.

All in all, a fun year wasting away before the computer moniter. What am I do do with myself now? I suppose I'll have to start excercising again. :)

Last Edit: 2008-11-08 @ 14:12:37
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 13:59:32
Get out and go running. Go skating with your daughter.

Mine is "reading" books with Mama. And has a real love affair going on with the moon. She is so fond of the moon, she offer's father moon her sacred pacifier :)
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 14:00:37
And when I consider how much number crunching I did, I am very pleased with most of my projections. Most have had some brandy in my tea when I called VT at 70%, but, hey, what the hell... in for a eurocent, in for a eurodollar....prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-08 @ 14:14:05
It appeared that that was a prodigious projection intially.prediction Map

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-08 @ 15:57:46
Did you predict Omaha district for Obama, just called for him with the absentee votes in ...375-163.

Thanks for all your great stats!
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 16:36:17
No, I did not predict NE-02 for him. With only one poll to go on, I was flying blind.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-08 @ 16:52:30
I just did some blitzmath on CA.

Apparently, there are still 1.6 million votes to count in CA, which would bring to the state just a little over 12,000,000 votes. 600,000 of those votes are from Los Angeles. This is critical information, as Obama curently has a 41 point margin in Los Angeles county, so those remaining 600,000 votes are also likely to break 70-30 for Obama.

1.6 million is 13.3% of the total votes, once they are all counted.

Obama is at around 61% right now in CA. The early voting in CA went overwhelmingly for Obama. So, the statistical probability that the end-ballots will pull Obama under 60% is very small. Much more likely is that the end-ballots will push him over 63%, maybe 64% overall. Wait and see.

I don't think Obama will surpass FDR's record from 1936 or Harding's record from 1920, but he may take 3rd place in this the largest state in the Union. His real vote margin could grow from 2.5 million votes to 3.1 million votes. In other words, he may end up with a larger vote margin in CA than Bush had in the entire Union in 2004.

Last Edit: 2008-11-08 @ 16:55:33
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-08 @ 22:37:26
Provisional ballots very likely favor Obama, but I'd guess mail-in ballots in California might favor McCain. I would have a sincerely hard time believing Obama could break 70% in CA over those matters.

But I suppose time will tell :D
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-09 @ 04:49:21
Christianity Today published statistics on the evangelical vote from Tuesday.

On the surface, the data looks similar to 2004:

2004 - evangelicals:

79 - Bush
21 - Kerry

Margin: Bush +57

2008 - evangelicals:

74 - McCain
25 - Obama

Margin: McCain +49

That's a margin shift of +9 for the DEMs.

But under "weekly churchgoing evangelicals", there was an amazing shift, worth noting:

2004 - "weekly churchgoing evangelicals":

61 - Bush
39 - Kerry

Margin: Bush +22


2008 - "weekly churchgoing evangelicals":

54 - McCain
44 - Obama

Margin: McCain +10

That's a postive margin shift of 12 points in 4 years for a DEM candidate, and a black one at that.

Another contributor to Christianity Today has also put out an Evangelical Electoral Map, using CNN exit polls and google map technology.

It is worth it to look at the map and see first hand the wide, wide disparity in evangelican voting patterns, according to region of the country.

There is also a large version of the map and also an alphabetical breakdown of evangelical voter statistic here.

In the deep south (the Thurmond and Wallace states, to put a very specific point across), Obama did the worst. In the Great-lakes / Rustbelt states, Obama did the best, including, amazingly enough, WV. His best performance among evangelicals was in his home state of IL. But he almost hit 30% in OH, which is an amazing statistic in and of itself, and he hit 32% in IN and 36% in IA. Considering that evangelicals generally consider liberalism to be godless, these are truly groundbreaking statistics.

I am writing this for three reasons:

1.) I think evangelicals are truly good people with giving spirits and a desire to search for the truth, regardless of whether I agree with them on a number of issues.

2.) It proves that evangelicals are not part of a monolithic organization - they are not always of one mind. And are not afraid to speak their mind, even when their opinion goes against the majority opinion within their ranks.

3.) It proves that evangelicals are just as influenced by outside (political) factors as any other sub-group within US-american demographics.

I will be fascinated to watch how evangelicals interact with and react to an Obama presidency. We may be looking at a major demographic shift in progress here. I think within these statistics is an important developing story. Stay tuned. I will be following this thread over the next 4 years.




Last Edit: 2008-11-09 @ 08:02:53
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-10 @ 06:08:19
Upcoming on my blog:

Bonncaruso cannot twiddle his thumbs for long :) :)- so, a sneak preview of what's coming up:

Well, first, as soon as the official returns from all 51 states, commonwealths and DC are engrained in stone and 100% final, I will do a complete statistical analysis of the GE from Nov. 4th, including:

-percents (to the 1/100th of a percent), margins (also to the 1/100th of a percent), actual votes, actual margins and a comparison to 2004, noting the differences in real votes and also in percentages (also to the 1/100th of a percent).

-When the congressional district data is also complete, I will be doing a map of the USA with the election results by CD.

-a comparison of the results of 2008 to the end polling averages from Nov. 3rd, by individual states and also by regions of the union.

-a new partisan ranking, based on the results of 2008, including a comparison to the partisan rankings from 2004.

-an updated list of superlatives on the state level.

-a complete analysis of exit polling results.

Second, in January 2009:

-a brand new 51 state study of electoral trends, 100 years (from 1908-2008, instead of from 1904-2004), 60 years (1948-2008), 40 years (1968-2008) and 20 years (1988-2008). I did a similar project in November 2007. This is a massive project and chews up a great deal of time, so I will probably be posting bits and pieces until it is all done.

-also, some interesting predictions about demographic shifts between 2008-2012, political manuevering in key states, especially based on the results of NE-02 and it's ramifications for the future. Also, an end-report on voter registration as a basis for 2010.

But until then, Bonncaruso is mega-tired from all this number crunching and needs about a week away to detox from the whole thing. So, I will probably not be posting much in the next week.

I have just got to stop dreaming of rounding 1/100th of a percent up or down :) :)

UNITY 2024 (CR and BC): "And you thought our biceps are big, just wait until you feel our brains"
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-11 @ 18:06:19
Still too early to call MISSOURI.

Current McCain margin: +4,968

7,000 provisional ballots will be counted starting tomorrow. Those ballots come from very, very strong Obama districts.

Still, this is a longshot for Obama. He would need a margin of 4,969 out of 7,000 ballots, which means he needs to pick up 6,000 of those 7,000 ballots, or 85.71%.

It is possible, but statistically unlikely in a state that has been this close.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-12 @ 04:29:06

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (continuing update):


The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 11/12, the PV and percentages:


Obama: 52.62% (66,115,514)

McCain: 46.05% (57,859,168)

Nader: 0.54% (679,465)

Barr: 0.40% (500,045)

Baldwin: 0.14% (180,864)

Other: 0.25% (320,071)


Current PV total: 125,655,127

real vote margin: +8,256,346


Margin: Obama +6.57


PV total 2004: 122,293,548


Difference to 2004: +3,415,579


Deviation from my projection:


Obama: -0.16%

McCain. +0.82%

Other: -0.67%


Tendency: rising for Obama.


I missed McCain's percentage. But am only 0.16% away from Obama's percentage. And these numbers will change again a number of times. The statistical probablility is extremely high that Obama comes up to at least 52.70%.

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-12 @ 04:55:07
OY!!!! OY!!!! OY!!!!!


I am not 100% sure how many more votes are out there to count, but assuming that a number of states use the 10 day rule to count absentee ballots or military ballots, spread over 50 state plus DC, I can imagine that easily 800,000-900,000 ballots are still yet to be tabulated. That would average to 17,647 per "state". Wait and see. But soon we will have the official results and the whole world will know.

But I just did blitzmath in my head and came to a startling conclusion, based on the current PV total of 66,115,514 for Obama. If Barack Obama gets just 484,486 of those remaining votes to be tabulated, then his vote tally comes to:

66,600,000 votes

Those who know the Book of Revelations out of the Christian Bible (the final book, called "Die Offenbarung Johannes" in german) know immediately what these first three digits have been interpreted to mean. I can see and "hear" the propaganda for the extreme-right and the religious right already revving up.

Mark my words: there will be op-eds and write ups about this in certain circles, as soon as the final vote comes in, for I think that Obama will come it at either just below or just above 66.6 million votes.

My statistical response as a thinking american: fascinating.

My response as a jew: OY!

When the right-wing press kicks into overdrive about this, just remember who reported it first: good old, mild mannered Bonncaruso.

Last Edit: 2008-11-12 @ 05:03:52
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 By: whoblitzell (I-JPN) 2008-11-12 @ 08:22:21
Numerical symbolism is a bunch of hooey.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-12 @ 11:06:05
Could be. I agree with you. But in some circles, if the numbers go where I think they will go, the numbers will be like hay for a bonfire.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-12 @ 11:08:03
An editorial by P.J. O'Rourke, a conservative's conservative:

We blew it....

First sentence, and I quote:

"Let us bend over and kiss our ass goodbye....."


:) :) :) :)

rofl
rofl
rofl
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-12 @ 14:56:37

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (continuing update):



The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 11/12, 14:30 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Obama (D)

66,354,771

52.66%

+8,336,450

+6.61%

McCain (R)

58,018,321

46.05%

Nader (I)

691,277

0.55%

Barr (L)

507,495

0.40%

Baldwin (C)

180,864

0.14%

McKinney (G)

150,427

0.12%

Other

97,430

0.08%

Total

126,000,585

100.00%


Comparison: my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.66%

52.77%

-0.11%

McCain (R)

46.05%

45.23%

+0.82

All others

1.29%

2.00%

-0.71%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

66,354,771

58,018,321

1,627,493

126,000,585

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+7,326,332

-4,022,289

+402,994

+3,707,037


Tendency: rising for Obama.


I missed McCain's percentage. But am only 0.11% away from Obama's percentage. And these numbers will change again a number of times. The statistical probability is extremely high that Obama comes up to at least 52.70%.

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-14 @ 06:52:29
Oh, and Obama has hit that 66.6 million vote count that I mentioned earlier, but I do think he will move on maybe to 67 million. Perhaps.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-14 @ 06:52:42

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (continuing update):



The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 11/14, 06:50 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Obama (D)

66,624,424

52.69%

+8,442,075

+6.68%

McCain (R)

58,182,349

46.01%

Nader (I)

695,084

0.55%

Barr (L)

509.235

0.40%

Baldwin (C)

181,612

0.14%

McKinney (G)

151,682

0.12%

Other

97,787

0.09%

Total

126,442,173

100.00%


Comparison: my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.69%

52.77%

-0.08%

McCain (R)

46.01%

45.23%

+0.78

All others

1.30%

2.00%

-0.70%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

66,624,424

58,182,349

1,635,400

126,442,173

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+7,595,585

-3,858,261

+410,901

+4,148,625


Tendency: rising for Obama.


I missed McCain's percentage. But am only 0.08% away from Obama's percentage. And these numbers will change again a number of times. The statistical probablility is extremely high that Obama comes up to at least 52.70%, maybe 52.72%.

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-15 @ 13:32:47

Two states have now posted official tallies: GA and SC.


GE results, comparison to 2004:


State

Obama

%

McCain

%

Other

%

TOTAL

Mar.

Mar %

GA

1,844,137

46.99

2,048,744

52.21

31,422

0.80

3,924,303

204,607

+5.22

2004

1,366,149

41.37

1,914,254

57.97

21,472

0.65

3.301,875

548,105

+16.60

Diff:

+477,988

+5.62

+134,490

-5.76

+9,950

+0.15

+622,428

-343,498

-11.38

SC

862,449

44.90

1,034,896

53.87

23,624

1.23

1,920,969

172,447

+8.97

2004

661,699

40.90

937,974

57.98

18,057

1.12

1,617,730

276,275

+17.08

Diff:

+200,750

+4.00

+96,922

-4.11

+5,567

+0.11

+303,239

-103,828

-8.11



The numbers speak for themselves. 477,988 more voters voted DEM this cycle than in the last in GA.

Obama's percentage in GA is the best showing for a democrat since 1980. John McCain's winning margin in the state is the second leanest in GOP history.


In SC, 200,750 more voters voted DEM this cycles than in 2004. Obama's percentage in SC is the best showing for a democrat since 1976 (Carter lost this state in 1980, and it has remained reliably Republican since then). John McCain's winning margin in the state iwas considerably reduced from both 2004 and 2000, but still better than Dole's and Bush 41's margins in 1996 and 1992.


When all states have posted official tallies, I will also be examining and averaging by region. For now, the average DEM % gain in the south (based on these two states) is: +4.81%. The average margin reduction for the GOP thus far is: -9.75%.


In both cases, the „other“ vote went up a nominal average of +0.13%, which is essentially statistical noise.


Alone from these two states, 925,667 more voters went to the polls than in 2004. That's an 18.85% voter growth in GA over 2004 and and 18.74% voter growth in SC over 2004. So, the region thus far is putting out consistent statistics.

prediction Map

 By: Indi-rocks (R-CA) 2008-11-15 @ 13:50:46
Didnt Clinton carry Georgia in 1992? Granted his percentage of the vote may not have been as high as Obama's due to the Perot influence. Clinton received the states electoral votes which really is where a win counts. Clinton came pretty close to beating Dole in Georgia in 1996. Bill Clinton also had won Montana's and Colorado's electoral votes in 1992. Still baffles me how Dole was able to win back Montana Colorado and Georgia and Clinton increased his % of the popular vote and electoral vote in 1996.

Mc Cain has held his own in only one state I can see, Oklahoma where 2008 almost mirrors 2004 down to the actual votes cast.

Last Edit: 2008-11-15 @ 13:57:17
 

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-15 @ 15:49:40
You can't discount that Obama won the largest popular vote of any candidate in history, the largest % and a higher proportion of white voters for a Dem. since Johnson.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-15 @ 16:36:08
Yes, Indy-Rocks, Clinton won GA in a three-way race in 92, but his percentage was lower than Obama's from Nov. 4th, 2008.

Your assessment of OK is absolutely correct, btw. Oklahoma and Massachusetts, in terms of comparison to 2004, are the two most "stabile" conservative or liberal states in the Union, based on partisan performance.

Dole won those states you mentioned back as they were closer to his geographical base. However, in doing so, he lost FL. The trade was worth it, I believe.

Wing: I agree, Obama has won the largest popular vote in history, the comparison however is not quite fair, as the electorate is constantly growing. Warren Harding, who won the largest margin in the history of the Union (1920: +26.17% over Cox/Roosevelt) never had the chance to garner 67 million votes, for there were not enough voters at that time to even come close to 67 million, much less 127 million. Fairer are the percentages, and even more telling, the margins. The real proof of the pudding is in the margin and the partisan shifts from cycle to cycle.

To put it into perspective: Obama's 8.5 + million margin over McCain is impressive, especially considering the unique dynamics of this race; however, Reagan won by 16,678,120 votes in 1984, Nixon won by 17,995,488 votes 36 years ago, Johnson won by 15,951,287 votes in 1964, Eisenhower won by 9,551,152 votes in 1956 and FDR won by an amazing (for his time)11,070,786 votes in 1936.

That he picked up the highest proportion of white voters since LBJ, however, is truly impressive. This is a factor of this election that pleases me perhaps the most of all.

Last Edit: 2008-11-15 @ 16:37:25
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-15 @ 16:57:06

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (continuing):

The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:

Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%

As of 11/15, 16:00 EDT, the PV and percentages, according to David Leip:

Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

127,242,580

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

67,026,721

52.68%

+8,549,839

+6.72%

McCain (R)

58,476,882

45.96%

Other:

1,738,977

1.37%

Comparison - my projection to current results:

Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.68%

52.77%

-0.09%

McCain (R)

45.96%

45.23%

+0.63

All others

1.37%

2.00%

-0.63%

Comparison to 2004:

Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

67,026,721

58,476,882

1,738,977

127,242,580

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+7,998,282

-3,563,728

+514,478

+4,949,032

Tendency: stabilizing for Obama at 52.68-52.70.

I missed McCain's percentage. But am only 0.09% away from Obama's percentage. And these numbers will change again a number of times. The statistical probablility is extremely high that Obama comes up to at least 52.70%.



Last Edit: 2008-11-15 @ 16:59:39
prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-11-16 @ 02:07:29
bonncaruso, texaslefty and I have the audacity of hope that Merkel will win re-election in a landslide next year!prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-16 @ 03:44:35
I'm not so sure. Merkel herself is quite popular but her party isn't that much. However, it might be that the Grand Coalition has to hold on because of Die Linke, in which case Merkel might still be Chancellor for some time, unless the SPD surpasses the CDU/CSU in the popular vote.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-16 @ 04:49:04
I disagree: I think that the CDU and the FDP will come over 48.6% together this time. Merkel will win. Westerwelle will be vice-chancellor.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-16 @ 07:10:44
Here the second state by state preliminary report from the GE on Nov. 4th.

The report is also directly under this post to read.

There are some interesting small shifts to notice between this report and the 1st preliminary report. Worth taking notice of.

Final report in less than 3 weeks, I assume.
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-16 @ 07:11:07

This is the second preliminary report on the GE from 2004. The first report is here to read.


At the current time, Obama has won 29 states + NE-02, whereas McCain has won 21 states, and one state is not yet declared: MO. However, the statistical probability is very high that MO will be declared for McCain.


Two states have now made their results official: SC and GA. All other results are still unofficial, but the remaining changes should be very, very minor (within 0.01-0.05% in terms of margin).


Here is a comparison of the current results from Nov. 4, 2008, meaning, the winning margin for each state, in comparison to the final poll convergence numbers (Diff. 1) and to the averages from the GE in 2004 (Diff. 2). The table is arranged according to winning margin, from Obama's largest down to his leanest, then from McCain's leanest to his largest.



St.

EV

BO-%

JM-%

Margin

11/03 AVG.

Diff. 1

2004

Diff. 2

1948-2004

DC

3

92.46

6.51

85.95

69.00

+16.95

79.84

+6.11

69.56

HI

4

71.85

26.58

45.27

36.00

+9.27

8.74

+36.53

10.01

VT

3

67.46

30.45

37.01

27.00

+10.01

20.14

+16.87

6.93

RI

4

63.12

35.22

27.91

18.10

+9.81

20.75

+7.16

16.23

MA

12

61.98

36.28

25.70

21.33

+4.37

25.16

+0.54

14.75

NY

31

62.16

36.70

25.46

29.00

-3.54

18.29

+7.17

5.42

MD

10

61.77

36.62

25.15

17.30

+7.85

12.98

+12.17

2.85

DE

3

61.94

36.95

24.99

20.70

+4.29

7.59

+17.40

0.05

IL

21

61.80

36.89

24.91

24.90

+0.01

10.34

+14.57

0.09

CA

55

60.85

37.29

23.56

24.00

-0.46

9.95

+13.61

0.96

CT

7

60.71

38.11

22.59

21.33

+1.26

10.37

+10.96

0.03

ME

4

57.83

40.30

17.53

17.15

+0.38

9.00

+8.53

4.67

WA

11

57.52

40.64

16.88

14.60

+2.28

7.18

+9.70

0.97

MI

17

57.40

40.94

16.46

14.44

+2.02

3.42

+13.04

0.42

OR

7

56.74

40.45

16.29

15.57

+0.72

4.16

+12.13

1.58

NM

5

56.77

41.91

14.86

9.26

+5.60

0.79

+15.65

4.10

NJ

15

56.70

42.28

14.42

16.00

-1.58

6.68

+7.74

3.43

WI

10

56.33

42.43

13.90

11.34

+2.56

0.38

+13.52

1.83

NV

5

55.11

42.69

12.42

6.83

+5.59

2.59

+15.01

9.94

PA

21

54.60

44.35

10.25

7.30

+2.95

2.50

+7.75

0.25

MN

10

54.06

43.82

10.24

12.00

-1.76

3.48

+6.76

6.15

NH

4

54.13

44.52

9.61

10.43

-0.82

1.37

+8.24

11.34

IA

7

53.78

44.52

9.27

12.75

-3.48

0.67

+9.94

3.84

CO

9

53.51

44.86

8.65

6.62

+2.03

4.67

+13.32

9.41

VA

13

52.56

46.41

6.15

4.93

+1.22

8.20

+14.35

10.14

OH

20

51.10

47.31

3.79

2.31

+1.48

2.11

+5.90

5.15

FL

27

51.00

48.20

2.80

1.79

+1.01

5.01

+7.81

8.65

IN

11

49.92

48.97

0.95

1.18

+2.13

20.68

+21.63

13.29

NE-02*

1*

50.61

49.39

0.48

4.00

+4.48

--

--

--

NC

15

49.70

49.38

0.32

0.62

-0.30

12.44

+12.76

4.13

--

--

--

--

--

--

MO

11

49.26

49.43

0.17

0.46

-0.29

7.20

-7.03

0.21

MT

3

47.16

49.66

2.50

1.66

+1.16

20.50

-20.00

9.54

GA

15

46.99

52.21

5.22

3.85

+1.37

16.60

-11.38

3.17

SD

3

44.75

53.16

8.41

7.50

+0.91

21.47

-13.06

13.31

ND

3

44.66

53.34

8.68

1.34

+10.02

27.36

-18.68

18.31

AZ

10

45.04

53.77

8.73

4.43

+4.30

10.47

-1.74

14.60

SC

8

44.90

53.87

8.86

12.55

-3.69

17.08

-8.22

7.47

TX

34

43.72

55.48

11.75

13.00

-1.25

22.86

-11.11

5.49

WV

5

42.58

55.67

13.10

7.66

+5.44

12.86

+0.24

3.81

MS

6

42.71

56.45

13.74

10.50

+3.24

19.69

-5.95

9.66

TN

11

41.77

56.94

15.17

14.00

+1.17

14.27

+0.90

4.23

KS

6

41.44

56.83

15.39

17.00

-1.61

25.38

-9.99

19.84

NE*

4*

41.33

56.81

15.49

19.00

-3.51

33.22

-17.73

24.44

KY

8

41.17

57.40

16.23

12.40

+3.83

19.86

-3.63

4.32

LA

9

39.93

58.56

18.63

10.43

+8.20

14.51

+4.12

3.64

AR

6

39.03

58.58

19.55

10.75

+8.80

9.76

+9.79

3.53

AL

9

38.80

60.42

21.62

19.33

+2.29

25.62

-4.00

10.25

AK

3

37.31

60.01

22.70

14.58

+8.12

25.55

-2.85

15.80

ID

4

36.07

61.55

25.48

23.00

+2.48

38.12

-12.64

24.44

UT

5

34.15

62.87

28.72

24.00

+4.72

45.54

-16.82

26.59

OK

7

34.35

65.65

31.29

30.15

+1.14

31.23

+0.06

16.03

WY

3

32.54

64.78

32.24

23.00

+9.24

39.79

-7.55

20.97

*Obama won 1 elector from NE (NE-02), again making history. This is the first time that either of the two states that officially split their electors has actually split them, in this case, Nebraska. I will be doing a write up on this and its ramifications for NE, ME and most likely, TX for the future.


The current statistics for NE-02:



State

EV

Obama

%

McCain

%

Total

Margin

NE-02

1

138,892

50.61

135,567

49.39

274,459

+0.48


Here a table comparing the margin spreads (numerically):


Margin

BO-GE

EV

BO 11/03

EV

JM-GE

EV

BO 11/03

EV

+30 and up

3

10

2

7

2

10

1

7

+20 to +30

8

143

7

132

4

21

3

12

+10 to +20

10

105

11

99

9

89**

11

105

+5 to +10

4

33

4

40

5

39

2

8

+2 to +5

2

47

2

33

1

3

2

25

+1 to +2

--

--

2

30

--

--

2

14

Subtotal

338

341

162

171

Under +1

2**

27**

1

15

1

11

1

11

TOTAL

365

356

173

182


**Figure adjusted for the elector-splitting in NE.


Since the first preliminary report, some states have shifted places in the ranking:


For Obama:


MA has moved ahead of NY, so they have switched 5th and 6th places in the DEM partisan rankings.

MD has jumped from 10th place to 7th place in the DEM partisan rankings.

DE has moved up from 9th to 8th place, with an almost identical margin as IL (the home states of the two democratic candidates).

WA has moved up from 14th to 13th place. OR has moved from 18th to 15th place. Notice also how close the margins in OR and WA are to each other. This is proof that neither WA nor OR were ever really in play during the election, regardless of partisan propaganda. It is also proof that their demographic and ideological makeup is almost identical to each other. (See ND and SD below)


For McCain:


His homestate of AZ has moved from 18th place up to 17th place in the GOP partisan rankings.

Because of the chance in AZs status, note that ND and SD are next to each other at 19th and 18th place in the GOP partisan rankings, with margins a quarter of one percentage point apart from each other, once again proof that these two states are practically identical to each other in demographic and in ideological make-up, part of the reason why I broke with the polls for ND that were giving Obama a lead.

Comparison to 2004: Kerry won 8 of 20 states with a margin of +10 or more. In 2008, Obama won 22 of 29 states with a margin of +10 or more, and two more state are at the +9-10 range.


The DEM ticket made huge gains in the homestates of both candidates (IL, DE). The GOP ticket actually did worse in their homestates than George W. Bush did in 2004 (AZ, AK).


Currently, Obama's national average is stabilizing around +6.72. Interestingly enough, the state in the Union that comes the closest to mirroring the natonal average is: VA.


THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (continuing):



The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 11/15, 16:00 EDT, the PV and percentages, according to David Leip:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

127,242,580

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

67,026,721

52.68%

+8,549,839

+6.72%

McCain (R)

58,476,882

45.96%

Other:

1,738,977

1.37%


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.68%

52.77%

-0.09%

McCain (R)

46.96%

45.23%

+0.63

All others

1.37%

2.00%

-0.63%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

67,026,721

58,476,882

1,738,977

127,242,580

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+7,998,282

-3,563,728

+514,478

+4,949,032


Tendency: stabilizing for Obama at 52.68-52.70.


I missed McCain's percentage by more than ½ point. But am only 0.09% away from Obama's percentage. And these numbers will change again a number of times. The statistical probablility is extremely high that Obama comes up to at least 52.71%.



What comes next?


When all 51 „states“ have official tallies, then the end tables will be published:


1.) by winning margin.

2.) in the order to margin shift over 2004.

3.) comparison to end-polling prognoses (how accurate were they? What were the last minute trends? Who outperformed the polls more and where did they do it?)


4.) And then a partisan shift table as well (will be explained later).

Partisan shift is not the same as margin shift. In order to measure partisan shift, we need the value 2.46 from 2004 (positive value for the GOP, negative value for the DEMS) and the end-value from 2008, which is currently 6.72 (negative value for the GOP, positive value for the DEMS, a reversal from 2004) and all margins to the 1/100th of a percent. Then I will explain how this works in building the partisan rankings as a basis for 2012.


Also, a listing up superlatives and squeakers, of surprises and expecteds.

prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-18 @ 16:11:09
Bonn, why do you predict a Merkel win? I'm interested in Germany but I don't speak German so I can't really have a close understanding of it... But I feel Die Linke will be a powerful wedge.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-18 @ 16:31:44
I doubt it. The Linkies are already weakening. Merkel is extremely popular, so I suspect that the CDU will come in at around 39% and the FDP at 10% - 49% is enough to form a BLACK-YELLOW coalition, which is what I think will happen.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-18 @ 17:15:58
ALASKA SENATE RACE UPDATE:

As of 17:02 EDT:

Begich: 146,286
Stevens: 143,912

Margin: Begich +2,374
Was: Begich +1,022
Change: +1,352

Begich will win. Stevens is toast.

Last Edit: 2008-11-18 @ 17:16:26
prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-19 @ 02:58:22
Thanks for the answer. From what I've read, the CDU is still way ahead of the SPD, but if they don't make it to 40% or very close to that they'll be in trouble to make a black yellow coalition. However, I think Merkel will remain Chancellor whatever:
-if she has 49% with CDU and FDP, she wins.
-if she doesn't, but still CDU/FDP lead SPD/Grunen and CDU leads SPD, then she can either continue the grand coalition or try the Jamaica coalition.
Indeed, I doubt there will be an Ampel coalition if Merkel leads Steinmeier in the popular vote. The final possibility, the red red green coalition, sounds very unlikely.
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-19 @ 04:02:33
NO, the FDP is gaining, may get back to 11%, so Merkel needs between 37.5%-38.5% to lock up a BLACK-YELLOW coalition.

Jamaica will not come into question, believe, neither that nor the traffic-light coalition.

The way things are looking, CDU will hit between 39-40%, the FDP between 10-11%, so a BLACK-YELLOW coalition will be between 49-51%, more than enough according to the german constitution.
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-19 @ 04:02:44
ALASKA and the 58th DEMOCRATIC senator in this cycle:

(As of 19.11.2008, 04:00 EDT)

Begich: 150,708 (47.76%)
Stevens: 147,004 (46.58%)

Margin: Begich +3,724 (+1.18%)

This includes 22,838 of the roughly 24,000 ballots that were out, so even if Stevens gets 100% of all the straggler ballots, Begich still wins. A recount costs $15,000. The race is over with.

Last Edit: 2008-11-19 @ 06:59:14
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-19 @ 13:10:07

MISSOURI update, Nov. 19, 2008, 13:30 EDT (19:30 GDT +1)


Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

% Mar.

McCain (R)

1,445,781

49.42

+3,636

+0.13

Obama (D)

1,442,145

49.29

Nader (I)

17,811

0.61

Barr (L)

11,385

0.39

Baldwin (C)

8,200

0.28

Kinney (G)

469

0.01

TOTAL

2,925,791

100.00



Comparison to 2004, thus far:



State

Obama

%

McCain

%

Other

%

TOTAL

Mar.

Mar %

MO

1,442,145

49.29

1,445,781

49.42

37,865

1.29

2,925,791

3,636

0.13

2004

1,259,171

46.10

1,455,713

53.30

16,480

0.60

2,731,364

196,540

7.20

Diff:

+182,974

+3.19

-9,932

-3.88

+21,385

+0.69

+194,427

-192,904

-7.08


We clearly see that McCain is earning less votes than Bush got in 2004, and the percentage loss of -3.88 is becoming a common figure as I do the math (somewhere between -3.80 and -4.10). But the margin has shrunk from +0.17 down to +0.13 for McCain. Even so, without knowing how many ballots are yet to be counted, but assuming that at least 5,000 of them were just counted out of 9,000 outstanding, the statistical probability is extremely high that McCain will carry MO by a razor-thin margin. In this case, it is very possible that Nader is a spoiler for Obama, more so than Barr would be for McCain.



Last Edit: 2008-11-19 @ 13:41:02
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-19 @ 14:02:37
Barr was a spoiler for McCain in IN & NC. Yeah, Bob! There were also 14,000 write-ins in NC. I suppose these are Nader & McKinney, who weren't on the ballot.

Last Edit: 2008-11-19 @ 14:17:24
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-19 @ 15:53:48
Election 2008 breaks the 5,000,000 barrier over 2004:

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (continuing):



The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 11/15, 16:00 EDT, the PV and percentages, according to David Leip:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

127,307,378

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

67,048,575

52.67%

+8,550,385

+6.72%

McCain (R)

58,498,190

45.95%

Other:

1,760,613

1.38%


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.67%

52.77%

-0.10%

McCain (R)

46.95%

45.23%

+0.62

All others

1.38%

2.00%

-0.62%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

67,048,575

58,498,190

1,760,613

127,307,378

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+8,002,136

-3,542,420

+536,114

+5,013,830


Tendency: stabilizing for Obama at 52.67-52.68.


I missed McCain's percentage by more than ½ point. But am only 0.10% away from Obama's percentage. And these numbers will change again a number of times. The statistical probablility is high that Obama comes up to at least 52.69%.

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-19 @ 16:01:51
The AP calls MO for McCain.

"JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. – Republican John McCain has defeated President-elect Barack Obama in Missouri — the last state to be decided in the 2008 presidential election.

McCain's narrow victory over Obama breaks a bellwether streak in which Missourians had picked the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1956.

With all jurisdictions reporting complete but unofficial results, McCain led Obama by 3,632 votes Wednesday out of more than 2.9 million cast — a margin of 0.12 percentage points.

Both men spent considerable resources trying to win Missouri, a state that Obama ultimately did not need for his national victory.

Obama won 365 electoral votes. Missouri's 11 electoral votes will give McCain 173."

-----------------------------------

FACTOID:

This win, with a margin of +0.12%, goes into the history books as the second closest sqeaker in MO history, after Taft's +0.09% win in 1908 (the margin was 628 votes out of 715,927 votes cast). At that time, MO was a powerhouse state, with 18 electoral votes out of 483 EV , or 4.73% of the EC. Compared to today, MO now has 11 out of 538 EV, or 2.04%.

Last Edit: 2008-11-19 @ 16:10:57
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 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-19 @ 16:29:29
& throws a large monkey wrench into many maps on this site. Does this mean Liep will post scores now, or will he wait for official results?

Last Edit: 2008-11-19 @ 16:31:00
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-19 @ 16:48:47
Wing: That does not bother me. With the race this close in MO, it could have gone either way, and I mentioned this a number of times vis-a-vis MO and NC in the days leading up to Nov. 4th. That's the risk you take when it is so close. If the Barr-freaks had not come out in IN, then in spite of an amazing turnout for Obama, McCain would have eeked out a sqeaker there as well.

What pleases me the most is that my baseline statistics were all correct; that being said, the end interpretation of extremely close states is, at the end of the day, partly a matter of luck. With more polling in NE-02, I would have probably called the CD for Obama, but with such a dearth of information, it was impossible to make an informed decision.

I accept the monkey wrench. For my first time out of the gate in a presidential election, I have nothing to be ashamed of, and more than that, the US public just elected a black man with 52.78% of the PV and in an electoral landslide. So many little bits of history were made in one night, it will take a complete analysis to get all of those tidbits out there, like the one in the following post, which I am sure will delight you.

I assume that Mr. Leip will wait until the official results, for a percentage like 49.92 could theoretically still jump to 50.00, but this is of course highly unlikely. Better to wait until the last 1/100th of a percent is engraved in the tablets on Mt. Sinai :) :)

Best,

BC

Last Edit: 2008-11-19 @ 17:07:15
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-19 @ 16:51:29
Now would be a good time for all DEMOCRATS to collectively say "OH, MY GOODNESS!!":


SALT LAKE CITY went for OBAMA! WOW.

This in what was just four years ago the most conservative state in the Union.

"Updated election results released Tuesday show that Salt Lake County voters favored Barack Obama over John McCain -- but just barely -- marking the first time in decades that a Democratic presidential hopeful won the state's most populous county.

With the addition of more than 29,000 provisional and late-arriving absentee ballots, President-elect Obama scored a come-from-behind victory over McCain. The county's official election canvass didn't change the outcome in any other race.

Obama trailed McCain by about 1,900 votes before the provisionals, cast mostly by people who moved but didn't change their voter registration, and absentees were added.

The final result gave Obama a 296-vote victory, which equates to less than one-tenth of 1 percent.

The race was so close that if McCain wanted a recount in Salt Lake County, he could get one. But no one really expects that to happen.

The updated election results have no impact on who won the presidency or even on Utah's five Electoral College votes, which easily went to McCain.

But Obama's Salt Lake County win sure mean a lot to the leaders of the Utah Democratic Party, who watched President Bush win the last two elections by a margin of more than 20 percentage points in the county.

"It is a huge step for us," said party Chairman Wayne Holland.

He has studied the major strides Democrats have made in surrounding western states like Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, all of which
went for Obama. Holland said the shift from Republican elected officials to Democrats only occurred after Democrats started winning in the major metro areas of Denver, Albuquerque and Las Vegas.

He said seeing Obama win Salt Lake County was "our grand hope."

And now that it has come true, he believes it will result in greater Democratic gains throughout the state.

"You will see this start the spread into the rural areas."

Salt Lake County Republican Chairman James Evans is far from convinced. He said Democrats have won in the county before, noting Scott Matheson claiming more votes than Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. in 2004, but that it hasn't resulted in Democrat gains throughout the state.

"If you look at the size of McCain's victory in Utah, it is somewhat premature for Democrats to claim any momentum," said Evans.

McCain beat Obama 62 percent to 35 percent in Utah. But Obama had the strongest showing of any Democratic presidential hopeful in Utah since Hubert Humphrey ran in 1968.

He also won three counties -- Salt Lake, Grand and Summit -- while that last two Democratic candidates didn't win even one.

Most of the Democratic gains in the 2008 election happened in Salt Lake County. They won the straight-party voting, retained the county mayor's seat and picked up a seat on the County Council, giving them a 5 to 4 majority.

Democrats also claimed three new state House seats in the Sandy area, including one held by the sitting House Speaker, and one state Senate seat.

But Evans cautions Democrats against being too gleeful, saying Republicans faced "considerable headwinds" this year, with an unpopular President Bush and the growing economic crisis.

He expects Salt Lake County to continue to vacillate between Republicans and Democrats making it the state's biggest political battleground for years to come."
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-20 @ 08:11:09
UPdated percentages out of IN:

Obama: 49.95 (was: 49.92)
McCain: 48.91 (was: 48.96)

Margin: +1.04 (was +0.96)

Obama has officially crawled over 1 percentage point, is still however officially below 50%, as I predicted (whew!).
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-20 @ 16:45:46
I've gone through the websites for all 50 states plus DC today for unofficial or official election results.

There are lots of updates that Mr. Leip has not yet recorded. Like me, he is probably waiting until the official numbers come through, as re-inputting data can sure get tedious.

But already in CA, 440,000 more votes are in the record (314 of which are for Obama, btw). Visually, going through so many states, I see updated numbers that will add up to hundreds of thousand of votes yet.

The national popular vote will most likely go over 128 million and Obama will probably hit 67.6 or 67.7 million. I bet his percentage will come closer to the 52.77% that I predicted on Nov. 3rd for Nov. 4th. Wait and see.
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-22 @ 07:27:56
I have posted a 3rd preliminary report from the GE 11/04 on my blog.

There are just tons of factoids in this report that will fascinate. I encourage all to read the whole report.

There are some other factiods that I am first pre-releasing only on this website.

Go to my blog and notice on the large table that:

-the percentages and margins for WA an ME, the two most far-flung continental states, extreme NW and extreme NE, are almost identical to each other.

-Obama beat McCain WEST of the Mississippi river: 97 EV to 85 EV. This is the first time since 1992 that a DEMOCRAT won west of the Mississippi. Not only that, he one every single state west of the Mississippi with a landslide (yes, including CO).

-Obama won all of the NORTHEAST (Aceola) and all of the rust-belt/mid-west states (depending on how you categorize the Dakotas, there is not concensus on this point). By winning IN, this is the first time since 1964 that a DEMOCRAT has won such a long stretch of contiguous states. Not even FDR won this configuration of states, either in 1932, 1936, 1940 or 1944. FDR won more states, but not this configuration.

In the post above this one here on my map, I wrote:

"The national popular vote will most likely go over 128 million and Obama will probably hit 67.6 or 67.7 million. I bet his percentage will come closer to the 52.77% that I predicted on Nov. 3rd for Nov. 4th. Wait and see."


Well, take a look:

Current PV total: 128,110,073
Obama current: 67,562,020 (52.74%)
McCain current: 58,759,016 (45.87%)
Margin: +8,803,004 (+6.87%)

Obama is currently at 52.74%. I predicted 52.77%, so we only have 0.03% more to go before it's a lock!!!

Obama is close to breaking Bush's PV record by 6,000,000 votes. He may also surpass a 9 million vote plurality over McCain.

Last Edit: 2008-11-23 @ 01:42:34
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-22 @ 09:09:09
Bonn, for the sake of your sleeping time I beg you to use an Xcel table... :-)

I read some of your analysis and find it very interesting but I think this is too early to call the election a realigning election. There have been few surprises this year, since except for Indiana and North Carolina no state broke its trend significantly. Virginia, Colorado and Nevada had all been trending this way. I think for now it's more like a deviating election, with some major gains in the Midwest and West as well as the coastal South, the way Bill Clinton made forays in the South and West in 1992 that just didn't hold in 2000. If Obama loses these gains in 2012 or his successor does in 2016, then this can't really be called a realigning election in the way 1932/6 transformed the map and political alignment for two decades.

And since political identification is so lose these days, it's a bit difficult to classify dealigning, deviating and realigning elections the way it was done in the Michigan model.
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-23 @ 02:18:19

So, I have already finished crunching all the numbers for all states, as of midnight between Nov. 22 and Nov. 23, EDT.


Here they are. The font is very small to accomodate a large table. If you are using Firefox, „Ctrl +“ will enlarge the whole thing for you. If you are using IE 8, there is a magnifying symbol at the bottom right hand corner of your browser, similar story for Opera 9.


The table is, I believe, unique in the internet as it gives a direct comparison to 2004, both in raw numbers and in percentages and also in partisan shift.


The blue numbers are democratic, the red numbers are republican, and the bold numbers are those of the winner.


The columns to the left that are shaded in grey indicate a final tally, no more updates are expected from these states.


Here is an example from the table:



St.

Obama

%

McCain

%

Other

%

TOTAL

Mar.

Mar %

USA

67,969,029

52.76

59,075,413

45.86

1,784,531

1.38

128,828,973

8,893,616

6.90

2004

59,028,439

48.27

62,040,610

50.73

1,224,499

1.00

122,293,548

3,012,171

2.46

Diff:

+8,940,590

+4.49

-2,965,197

-4.87

+560,032

+0.38

+6,535,425

+11,905,787

+9.36

AR

414,826

38.81

628,710

58.82

25,424

2.37

1,068,960

213,884

20.01

2004:

469,953

44.55

572,878

54.31

12,094

1.15

1,054,945

102,945

9.76

Diff:

-55,127

-5.74

+55,832

+4.51

13,330

+1.22

+14,015

+110,939

+10.25

CA

7,819,181

61.18

4,721,634

36.94

239,522

1.88

12,780,337

3,097,547

24.24

2004:

6,745,485

54.31

5,509,826

44.36

164,546

1.32

12,419,857

1,235,659

9.95

Diff:

+1,073,696

+6.87

-788,192

-7.42

+74,976

+0.56

+360,480

+1,861,888

+14.21


Nationally, if my projection of 52.76% for Obama holds (this is only 0.01% away from my prediction, btw), then this means that the DEMS gained 4.49% in the national popular vote over 2004, the GOP lost 4.87% over 2004 and the IND (other) vote gained 0.38% over 2004. The margin difference means that the DEMS came from 3 million behind in 2004 to almost 9 million ahead in 2008, an almost 12,000,000 vote shift. Translated into %, that would be the so-called partisan shift. If Obama holds at 52.76%, then the partisan shift in the nation would be +9.36.


On to Arkansas. Since there are so very few states where Obama got less votes than Kerry did in 2004, I have underlined those examples (AR, LA, OK, WV).


Look at CA. Currently, only 360,480 more votes than in 2004. I suspect that yet more votes are to come in from California. Obama's percentage in CA is the second highest for any DEM in history (after 1936) and the fifth highest for any candidate of any party. His margin is the third highest in the history of the state (after 1936, 1928).


I believe that seeing the difference this way in hard cold numbers is very illustrating.


Comparison - my projection to current results that I have found:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.76%

52.77%

-0.01%

McCain (R)

45.86%

45.23%

+0.63

All others

1.38%

2.00%

-0.62%



This puts my projection from Nov 4th (before the polls closed) just 0.01% off from reality. I still missed McCain's margin by more than ½ point (which is more than just statistical noise), but my topline for Obama was right on the money.





Last Edit: 2008-11-23 @ 02:27:25
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-23 @ 02:35:19
Here the same table, smaller font.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-24 @ 16:38:01
According to BALLOT ACCESS NEWS, the official canvas from the state of California will not come out until December 13th, which is a Saturday.

There is disagreement as to why this is so. The American Independent Party of CA is claiming that one democratic elector who had been submitted to be on the slate of electors was not correctly registered in Los Angeles County.

Others argue that the deluge of absentee ballots is taking time to sort out.

I think that both arguments have enough holes in them to pass for swiss cheese.

Anyhow, no official report from me until after December 13th, apparently, since the report can't be made until all data is cast in stone. Hmmmm.....

Last Edit: 2008-11-24 @ 16:38:38
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-25 @ 17:43:39

52.77!!!!!!!



Currently, Obama's national average, which last week was at +6.72, has moved up to at least +6.92, a margin jump of +0.20 in 9 days. Interestingly enough, the state in the Union that comes the closest to mirroring the national average is: VA.


If Obama holds at +6.92, then the national partisan shift from 2004 to 2008 would be: +9.38


The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 11/25, 17:00 EDT, here are the numbers I have:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

129,147,277

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

68,141,444

52.77%

+8,937,640

+6.92%

McCain (R)

59,223,804

45.85%

Other:

1,789,029

1.38%


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.77%

52.77%

+/- 0.00%

McCain (R)

45.85%

45.23%

+0.62

All others

1.38%

2.00%

-0.62%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

68,141,444

59,223,804

1,789,029

129,147,277

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+9,113,405

-2,816,806

+564,530

+6,853,729



If the tend continues, then Obama may somewhat overshoot 52.77, but for now, my prediction is EXACTLY on the money.

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-26 @ 17:28:51
KOS is also showing Obama at 52.77%, but they are showing higher numbers overall, and a margin of exactly +7.00%. Fascinating.

According to KOS, we are now over 130.2 million votes.
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-27 @ 19:01:17
My hat is off to you and thanks for an excellent analysis and some interesting discussion along the way! Here in MN the recount continues along friendly lines. Both sides have made frivilous challenges so there will be probably around 6000 ballots to be looked at and each candidate will gain from this. I rate Coleman's chances at 50-50 in this race just like election day.

Interesting that some democratic areas added votes for COleman and Republican areas for Franken. Thank goodness we have paper ballot backups. A court may decide the clerical error absentee ballots....

This will be the last seat decided...

Happy Thanksgiving!
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-28 @ 04:35:42
I suspect that the recount will be very, very close, but considering that Franken has never had the lead, the statistical probability is that Coleman will win by his chinny-chin-chin.

I suspect that the GOP, in a battle of the bulge move, will throw everything including kitchen sinks into GA in order to hold the senate seat, and again, statistically speaking, Chambliss has the better cards in his hand than Martin.

So, at the end of the day, it looks like:

D - 56
R - 42
I - 2

So, essentially, 58-42, with three very RINO republicans sitting among those 42, so the chances for cloture in the case of a grand old filibuster-fest are still very good.
prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-28 @ 04:37:30
OH, and happy belated Thanksgiving to all. Yesterday was a normal work day in Germany.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-28 @ 12:12:05
Happy Thanksgiving, Bonn & all.

I've been following the MN recount via 538.com. He opines that with the high number of ballot challanges (Coleman higher), which don't count until ruled on by the state board, we don't really know much, but he predicts a slim Franken victory. The fact that Coleman has maintained the lead is more a function of his ballot challanges than anything that could be very empiric.

Last Edit: 2008-11-28 @ 14:52:50
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 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-28 @ 12:20:07
Windgiddy you are correct. And in the Minneapolis Trib it does show some of the ballot challenges. Many are frivilous and some you can determine the voter's intent.

I suspect a legal challenge no matter what!

prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-11-28 @ 18:13:16
Of course, in a race this close, all is possible, but just as I predicted practically everything about Obama with 98%-100% accuracy, based on what I see, the statistical probability is extremely high that Coleman will eek out a win here.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-12-02 @ 14:09:03
Here is preliminary report no. 4, the last report before the final report.

Here is part of the report:

As of 12/02, 06:00 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

129,805,369

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

68,496,622

52.77%

+9,061,299

+6.98%

McCain (R)

59,435,023

45.79%

Other:

1,824,704

1.44%


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.77%

52.77%

+/-0.00%

McCain (R)

45.79%

45.23%

+0.56

All others

1.44%

2.00%

-0.56%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

68,496,622

59,435,023

1,824,704

129,805,369

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+9,467,883

-2,605,587

+649,525

+7,511,821


Tendency: Obama stabilizing at 52.77%. As far as I can see, I am the only blogger in the entire net who predicted this percentage, and currently, it is right on the money.





Last Edit: 2008-12-02 @ 14:10:20
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-12-06 @ 08:51:52

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE UPDATE:


Currently, Obama's national average, which was at +6.98 on 12/02, has moved to +7.16, a margin jump of +0.18 in four days: The current national percentages and margin are pretty much in the middle between Obama's win in VA (+6.30) and CO (+8.95) and is now coming closer and closer to the national poll averages from 11/03.


If Obama holds at +7.16, then the national partisan shift from 2004 to 2008 would be: +9.62 (+7.16 - (-2.46) = +9.62)


The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 12/06, 08:00 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

130,700,139

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

69,077,276

52.85%

+9,361,935

+7.16%

McCain (R)

59,715,341

45.69%

Other:

1,907,522

1.46%


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.85%

52.77%

+0.08%

McCain (R)

45.69%

45.23%

+0.46%

All others

1.46%

2.00%

-0.54%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

69,077,276

59,715,341

1,907,522

130,700,139

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+10,048,837

-2,325,269

+683,023

+8,406,591


Tendency: Obama has moved above the 52.77% I predicted. Good for him, bad for me :) :) So, I have currently missed his winning percentage by 0.08%, but am now less than one half point away from McCain's percentage. If this trend continues for the remaining official results/canvasses, then Obama could rise to 52.87%-52.88% and McCain may sink to 45.67%-45.68%, so the margin may hit an even +7.20 for Obama.


Other than CA and TX, most of the big states have either final results or official canvasses. I suspect that there are less than 500,000 votes remaining outstanding, but we will probably go over 131 million votes in 2008. CA will put out it's official canvass on 12/13.

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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-12-10 @ 16:32:37

Currently, Obama's national average, which was at +7.16 on 12/06, has moved to +7.25, a margin jump of +0.09 in four days: The current national percentages and margin are pretty much in the middle between Obama's win in VA (+6.30) and CO (+8.95) and is now coming closer and closer to the national poll averages from 11/03. His current percentage, historically ranked, comes closest to Ulysses B. Grant from 1868 (52.66%) and his percentages comes closes to FDR from 1944 (+7.49). I will be doing a large rankings work up, it will be posted as soon as the FINAL CANVASS is done.


We have now crossed over the 131 million vote mark. And more than 9,000,000 more voters went to the polls in 2008 than in 2004.


With only 5 states still posting unofficial numbers and a sixth state (MA) still pending for some mysterious reason, and with 29 states having posted FINAL numbers but no official canvass (yet), I suspect that there are at the most no more than 100,000, maybe 150,000 votes left to tally. California will put out it's official CANVASS on 12/13 and if there are any major shifts in numbers, they will probably be the most noticable here. Dr. Michael McDonald from George Mason University has an EXCELLENT website about this and his tracking of the numbers is excellent.


If Obama holds at +7.25, then the national partisan shift from 2004 to 2008 would be: +9.71 (+7.25 - (-2.46) = +9.71)


The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 12/10, 16:00 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

131,309,422

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

69,445,987

52.89%

+9,522,569

+7.25%

McCain (R)

59,923,418

45.64%

--

--

Other:

1,940,017

1.44%

--

--


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.89%

52.77%

-0.12%

McCain (R)

45.64%

45.23%

+0.41

All others

1.48%

2.00%

+0.52%

Margin

+7.25

+7.54

+0.29



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

69,445,987

59,923,418

1,940,017

131,309,422

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

Difference:

+10,417,548

-2,117,192

+715,518

+9,015,874


Tendency: Obama shot past my predicted 52.77% (ah, the joy was but short lived), but overall, my prediction is about as close to the bullseye as you can get: I am currently off by 0.12 on Obama's %, 0.29 on the margin and 0.41 on McCain's percentage – all under one half of a point.

prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2008-12-17 @ 03:55:17
It looks like, when all is said and done and the very last straggler write-in votes will be made official in the next 30-60 days, that Obama's national winning margin will be +7.24.

Of this, I am 99.999% sure, but not 100%. But it looks like it.

With that in mind, that makes the national swing from 2004 to 2008: +9.70.

With these numbers now set in stone, I am just about to produce the end-statistics in a massive way. Stay tuned.

Last Edit: 2008-12-17 @ 03:56:13
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-01-04 @ 09:01:47
For politics buffs, 2008 was a year for the history books.

Most of you know that I have kept a politics blog for almost 2 years now, and I have followed the statistics for election 2008 all the way from start to finish. The primary season was, imo, without a doubt the most fascinating in my lifetime and the GE was just as fascinating to watch.

I have done an extensive statistical analysis of the results of the presidential election. The analysis is apolitical, meaning, there are no partisan arguments given for winning or losing, but rather, the analysis is only about the numbers, about winning numbers, losing numbers and verifiable trends. I have also been extreme careful in my choice of words in order to keep the analysis as neutral as possible.

You can read the analysis here at my blog. However, since it is so large and since blogspot tends to do strange things with tables and graphics, I have also published the analysis in 5 parts through GOOGLE DOCS:

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5

The nice thing about GOOGLE DOCS is that GOOGLE automatically re-publishes any corrections that are made. The analysis is full of tables (charts) and maps. I recommend it, especially if you would like to see how your state performed in the GE in relation to others.

I have also created excel documents with exact vote counts for each state, etc...

You may want to check out the main excel document here.
In order to resort the data per wish, here the same excel document, but you must be registered by google in order to manipulate the data

Also an extensive listing of Obama's place in the national rankings over 184 years.

Feel free to stop by and read the analysis. Tons of fascinating facts and factoids there....


With this post, I bid you all goodbye for a while. Should you wish to keep in touch, you can email me at:

bonncaruso@gmail.com
bonncaruso@web.de
bonncaruso@hotmail.com

Last Edit: 2009-01-05 @ 04:52:51
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 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2009-01-08 @ 00:50:35
My favorite, from the conclusion:

"The most stunning cross-party partisan shift of 2008 was the Obama win in IN, a core GOP state, causing a shift of +21.78."

Congrats to the handful that picked Indiana, and not Missouri to vote Dem.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-01-09 @ 07:28:57
:)prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-01-24 @ 18:24:00
Oh, Lord, the ghost of Puma crap is back.

First, learn to spell. Either you are an uneducated person who doesn't care to get better at reading and writing, or you are an absolute moron.

Second, I am neither smiling nor frowning. Obama won, fair and square, and my statistically based predictions pretty much hit it on the mark.

If you think this country has gone to pot, then look at the last eight years of neo-con rule that utterly fucked up our economy, ruined our standing among allies, and united our enemies.

And if you ever write about wanting to shoot people in public office again, then I will personally contact the FBI.

So, go away.
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 By: jlorenzen (D-OH) 2009-01-28 @ 20:28:23
Faye is not real and never has been. I refuse to believe that anyone is truly as ignorant, as uneducated, as racist, as bigoted, as xenophobic, and as pathetic as the imaginary faye. It was mildly entertaining during the election season. Now, not so much. Hopefully the creator of this fictional creature comes up with something new. prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-01-29 @ 09:33:17
True, how true.prediction Map

 By: jlorenzen (D-OH) 2009-01-29 @ 22:45:27
To the creator of faye: let's try something different. The cranky old lady from Vegas is wearing too thin. How about a 50ish Jewish mother from Brooklyn? Or a 30 year old Mormon man from Provo? I know... how about a twenty something hispanic Catholic from South Central Los Angeles? Whatever you choose, please have them write a least at the fifth rade level. Your faye stories are nearly unreadable now. And there not very believable either. Thanks.prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-01-30 @ 15:49:01
I can't really imagine why someone would be so persistent in making this parody now with noone watching -or they would really need to have a lot of time to kill. But there again, if people like me have time to read it -on the eve of an exam, with that-, then someone may have time to write that just for fun.

But nothing surprises me anymore as far as American politics are concerned. Conservatives often caricature themselves -just listen to Coulter or Limbaugh or Glenn Beck.

And actually I don't think Aretha Franklin was singing the national anthem. She sang another song, at least from what I saw and heard, but then I didn't stay through the whole inauguration show.

I like the idea of the Mormon man from Provo. :-)

My favorite Faye quotes (misspellings corrected):

"chicken of light"

An accurate description.

"her daughter had her legs spread and something slipped in that shouldn't"

Well put.

"anyone that voted for him can't go to heaven"

That's when being an atheist comes in handy.

:-)

Last Edit: 2009-01-30 @ 15:49:47
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-01-31 @ 00:20:34
You misunderstood me. I just don't care much about Aretha Franklin, but I was just pointing out that she wasn't singing the American Anthem.

And Faye, I have seen a person peeing on the street in France only once (a couple of weeks ago, actually). It was late at night. I don't do that and doing so is considered as dirty as it can be in any other country. Though from the smell there is apparently a lot of it going on in the Paris underground.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-02-19 @ 05:40:39
Well, in a certain way, one sees the entire GOP rolled up in one disgusting person, who is still not intelligent enough to remember that I have told her (or him, or it, for all I care) at least 10 times that I am not german, but rather, a US-american living in Germany.

Her utter stupidity tells us all we need to know.

Faye, go away. 52.87% of the US voted AGAINST types like you, thank God.
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-02-21 @ 06:19:27
Certainly. I might add, though, that you should not include the New England GOP and the endangered species of the Republican moderates in that category. People like Jim Douglas, Olympia Snowe and Jodi Rell still talk sense some of the time.

And I wonder why she doesn't strike out at me. After all, I'm a plain Frenchman living in France. :-)
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-02-24 @ 15:24:35
1) The tiny Frenchman is 6 ft 3 inches tall and a heterosexual, like the overwhelming majority of the French population (tiny Frenchman rolling his eyes).
2) Russia is not and has never been a communist country, the USSR was. Russia is currently one of the most wildly capitalistic countries in the world with massive corruption and inequalities.
3) Bobby Jindal is not black, he is an Indian American, therefore his racial registration is Asian American.

The rest is not really a matter of rational thought.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-03-24 @ 05:15:15
French, why do you try? Faye is a fake. An absolute fake. No person in the USA can write this poorly and be able to find a keypad.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-03-30 @ 16:26:23
A state by state ranking analysis of the GE 2008, using Obama's percentages and margins, has been published here and here.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-04-01 @ 07:41:35
A preliminary analysis of the NY-20 race, including the upcoming absentee ballot count, is here and here.prediction Map

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-04-08 @ 15:03:07
I have done an even more intensive county by county analysis study of the state of OHIO vis-a-vis the presidential election from 2008.

The document is in three parts and published at GOOGLE DOCS.

Part I
Part II
Part III
The excel spreadsheet with all the raw data

As was the case with INDIANA, the study of
OHIO was fascinating and provides much thought provoking information.

The advantage of GOOGLE DOCS is that I can continue to update and correct a document and it will be automatically republished without the link changing. So, until I am absolutely sure that all the bugs are out, I will not publish the text here at my blog. Rather, just go to the links provided up above.


Next state for intensive county by county study: VIRGINIA
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-04-27 @ 03:30:14
As was the case with INDIANA and OHIO, I have now completed a massive county-by-county study of the results of the GE 2008 for VIRGINIA.

President Obama, who won the Commonwealth of Virginia with a +6.30% margin, was the first Democratic candidate to win this state since 1964 and the second Democratic candidate to win since 1948. Of note: VIRGINIA and COLORADO, both Democratic pick-ups in 2008, are the no. 1 and 2 states that came closest to Obama's national winning margin; VIRGINIA went „blue“ for slightly less than the national margin while COLORADO went for President Obama with slightly more than the national margin. It is rare when an unexpected battleground state flips and also mirrors the national numbers, but even rarer when this happens with two such states. Note also that these two states are in completely different regions of the Union, more proof that the GE 2008 was a so-called "re-alignment election".

In a nutshell:
1.) Obama set a new VIRGINIA raw vote record for a candidate of any party: 1,959,932 votes, 242,573 votes more than Bush's record-breaking raw vote from 2004. This is also the largest increase in votes for one party from one cycle the the next in VA history; the Democratic party added 504,790 votes to it's total over 2004. Incidentally, McCain also did better than Bush (2004) in VIRGINIA: he bested Bush's PV take by 8,046 votes. However, the ratio of the democratic vote increase over the GOP vote increase was 63.74 to 1! The popular vote growth rate for VIRGINIA was 16.91%.

2.) Obama won VIRGINIA with the 11th largest winning percent, the 11th largest winning margin, the 4th largest state partisan shift and the 4th largest Partisan Value* in US history for a Democratic candidate. Of the 14 Democratic winning cycles in VIRGINIA, this puts Obama roughly in the middle of the standings. That 4th largest partisan-shift, by the way, is larger than Johnson's from 1964. You have to go back to 1912 to find a Democratic partisan shift in VA larger than this one.
The dynamics of President Obama's win in VIRGINIA are very, very different than in the other two states (IN, OH); this information is critical and has far reaching ramifications for both the Democrats and the GOP in future elections. For this reason, I've done such an analysis.

*Partisan Value = the difference between the state partisan shift and the national partisan shift. For instance, the partisan shift in Virginia was +14.50%, while the national partisan shift was +9.73%, which means that Virginia was +4.77% stronger than the national pull toward the democratic party in 2008.

I've divided the information into three parts.

In Part I, there is important background information on Virginia, including details on the 14 DEM election cycles where a democratic candidate won the state. Also in Part I is the general overview of the county-wide results. You can link via Google Docs.

Part II contains a very large, detailed and enhanced (in comparison to the analyses of INDIANA and OHIO) table of the 134 counties/independent cities in Virginia, first by descending partisan shift and an analysis of the partisan shift ranges, and then by county size (% of the 2008 statewide popular vote), descending. Harrisburg (independent city), Fairfax and Buchanan counties are used as a prime examples of how Obama won Virginia, even through counties where he lost. We also see statistical proof of the "appalachian phenomenon" in the southwest part of the state. You can link via Google Docs.

Part III is an analysis of the democratic pick-up counties and also of the "tipping-point" counties, including some colorful maps. The conclusion draws pointed differences between Obama's historic win in Virginia and his wins in Indiana and Ohio (quoted also below). You can link via Google Docs.

Auxiliary sources:

I took the county-wide raw data for the entire state for both 2008 and 2004 and plugged it into an excel spreadsheet, which you can find here. Subsidiary data for all 134 counties/independent cities in VIRGINIA can be found here. Should you have difficulty calling up the spreadsheet, if you email me, I can send you a copy.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here a full quote from the conclusion:

"In INDIANA, every single county trended more or less democratic, without exception – there was a blue shift that moved the entire state and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed greatly to Obama's narrow win here – yes, the counties that he still lost to McCain. This shows a large level of GOP defection to Obama in 2008. Here, Obama gained 405,028 raw votes over Kerry from 2004, while McCain lost 133,790 raw votes over Bush from 2004, an uneven shift. Indiana's PV growth rate over 2004 was 11.47%. And Obama won by +1.03%.

In OHIO, not every county trended democratic (11 trended GOP), but there were no GOP county pick-ups. Also, in Ohio, the largest cities, all five of them, played the crucial role in moving the state into the democratic column and those overwhelmingly white, rural counties contributed very little to Obama's narrow win, in contrast to INDIANA. Surely there were some moderate GOP defections, but there were also a moderate amount of newly registered voters. Here, Obama gained 198,877 raw votes over Kerry's total from 2004, while McCain lost 181,948 raw votes over Bush's total from 2004, a moderate mirror image shift. Ohio's PV growth rate over 2004 was a nominal 1.36%, way under the national PV growth rate of 7.46%. And Obama won by +4.58%.

However, in VIRGINIA, there was real resistance to Obama, but this resistance occured in counties that are „emptying out“, so to speak. We see a large poli-demographic shift in VA, with the north and the southeast gaining greatly in political strength for the democratic party. Here there were obviously far fewer GOP defections, if at all (McCain scored more raw votes in VA than Bush from 2004), but far more newly registered and democratic dedicated voters. This poses a far larger problem for the GOP than either Indiana or Ohio, for Obama's +1.03% margin in Indiana can be overcome and Ohio is expected to be a battleground state in virtually every cycle, but the addition of more then 500,000 voters to the democratic rolls in just one cycle is much harder for the opposition to overcome. The best case scenario for the GOP is that VIRGINIA becomes a bitter battleground state. However, +6.30% is hardly a battleground margin. It is a better margin than Obama scored in OHIO, FLORIDA, INDIANA and NORTH CAROLINA. It is a lean winning margin, but a comfortable one and will require a minimum 12.60% shift back in order for the GOP to regain the state; I doubt that this shift will come from those 500,000 new voters. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Obama cements VIRGINIA into the democratic column in his first term, adding the state to core democratic territory and thus making the electoral math for the GOP more difficult."
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 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2009-04-30 @ 11:07:24
Another great work-up, Bonn. Just in 2004, pundits talked of demographic changes in Florida making it harder for Dems to win there (compared to 2000), yet here it is, blue again 4 years later. Do you see the demographic changes in Virginia as more lasting than those in Florida?

So after all the hand wringing during the election and its aftermath, the Democrats will not have to wait til 2010 for a 60 vote Senate majority, but will have it very soon, once Franken is finally seated from MN. I understand Specter will be no rubber stamp, and recommend Nate Silver's analyses on 538.com. Still, very few if any expected the Dems to reach 60 seats this year. In retrospect, very few expected them to gain a majority in 2006, and there has been a huge change in the balance of power on Capitol Hill in little more than 2 years.
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 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2009-05-06 @ 03:23:36
I see the changes in both states as more lasting. NC will be the new bitter battleground for a while, I think.

I suspect that both Senators from Maine will defect to the democratic party within 1 year, after the ultra-conservative purging process going on within the hulk of what used to be a big-tent GOP is over with.
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 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2009-05-06 @ 08:41:48
Neither Senator from Maine is in any particular danger of losing either the primary (since the New England Republican parties are not as right-wing as the other state parties) or the general election (since they are both popular in Maine). Collins won by a landslide even as Obama beat McCain soundly in 2008, and Snowe will probably do the same thing in 2012.

Therefore, I think they will not switch parties because of seniority reasons (I mean, Specter just lost THIRTY YEARS of seniority). The only reason they might switch would be continued pressure and abuse from the national Republicans, which might influence their rank in the committees and the caucus. Both Collins and Snowe are about as close to the mainstream Democrats as to the mainstream Republicans, so their party identification matters only in terms of power sharing in the Senate, and unless they see clear advantages in switching, they won't.

And if they should, I see Snowe doing it before Collins, and therefore Collins remaining in the GOP because oddly enough they don't really like each other.
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 33/36 18/36 51/72 70.8% pie 1 32 200T
P 2012 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 7 0 115T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 20/37 54/74 73.0% pie 11 0 151T
P 2008 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 75 0 13T
P 2008 Senate 27/33 16/33 43/66 65.2% pie 3 326 303T
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 16/52 61/104 58.7% pie 14 - 38T
P 2008 Rep Primary 36/49 11/49 47/98 48.0% pie 10 - 64T
Aggregate Predictions 284/319 172/319 456/638 71.5% pie


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