PredictionsMock2008 Presidential Predictions - MrChedda (D-CO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-06-02 Version:5

Prediction Map
MrChedda MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
MrChedda MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem314
 
Rep224
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem231
 
Rep197
 
Ind0
 
Tos110
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+70+62000202252+62
Rep000-70-62243224-62
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
77452741
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Without a doubt it's going to be a Obama vs McCain ticket.

Here's the way I see it:

Colorado-Obama killed Clinton in the Caucus here. McCain also did not win here (losing to Romney) despite the fact it borders his homestate.

Florida-Depending how the delegates are seated it's hard to tell for the Dems, though best guess if things stay the same, Obama got less than 40% of the vote. McCain took this state in a fairly easy victory.

Iowa-Obama's 1st victory! Seeing Clinton lose to him AND Edwards was a serious early blow to her in the very begining. With Huckabee winning for the Repubs, it questionable if McCain would win in this always close state

Missouri-Evenly split between delegates for the Dems and a winner take all for the Repubs. This state could go either way. Both primaries were INSANELY close. I imagine in the general election it will be again!

Nevada-A narrow margin in the Caucus, yet while Clinton won, Obama got more delegates. With Romney taking this state, unknown how well McCain will fare here.

New Mexico-While I'm really hoping Obama takes Richardson as his running mate, even if that doesn't happen, he lost to Clinton by a narrow margin, it's been known to swing to the Dems in the past 20 years (with the exception of 2004) even though McCain took this state over Romney and Huckabee, I expect it it once again go Dem and like I said, if Obama choses Richardson as V.P. it's a given!

Ohio-Though I expect Obama to take it, I don't it'll be as easily I as I once did. Though, McCain's stance on the war and even less understanding of the economy, I don't think flies well with many here.

Pennsylvania-Same case as Ohio, yet if I remember correctly, Obama did somewhat better there than OH, especially with Sen. Bob Casey's endorsement of him.

West Virginia-Despite Clinton taking this state in a landslide, Sen. Rob Byrd's endorsement of Obama and the fact Huckabee beat out McCain here, I think is helpful, as well as before 2000 it's high tendency to swing to the Dems.

These I think will be the major battle ground states and will decide the fate of our country for the next 4 years (dun dun dun!)


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 1 399 314T760
P 2012 Rep Primary 24/52 4/52 28/104 26.9% pie 1 - 164T231
P 2010 Senate 27/37 14/37 41/74 55.4% pie 1 291 375T456
P 2008 President 49/56 28/56 77/112 68.8% pie 5 155 625T1,505
P 2008 Senate 29/33 15/33 44/66 66.7% pie 2 155 281T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 303 152T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 24/52 6/52 30/104 28.8% pie 2 - 150T271
Aggregate Predictions 215/297 116/297 331/594 55.7% pie


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