Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-09-10 Version:15

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	268
Rep	265
Ind	5

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	237
Rep	222
Ind	0
Tos	79

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+3	0	+21	-1	-1	-5	19	1	247	+16
Rep	0	0	0	-3	0	-21	28	3	265	-21
Ind	+1	+1	+5	0	0	0	0	0	0	+5

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
68	44	21	3	0

Analysis

As I currently see it, this election is really at a critical point - can Obama assure success in Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire and continue battling in key background states or is he now withdrawing to defend the Democratic homeland? Doesn't matter - what matters now are four states - CO, NV, NH and WI - and one congressional district - ME's second. Here's how these can play out.

Obama best case scenario is sweeping all five areas and thus ensuring his victory.

McCain's best case scenario is also sweeping all five, but whereas Obama has a realistic chance of taking them all, McCain's overall likelihood of winning WI is less. Regardless, with the remaining figures he still wins.

McCain's best chance should he suddenly take a downturn in WI and CO is to win NH and ME's second district.

So, really, this election hinges on McCain's choice of battlegrounds - the Northeast or Colorado.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: thepolitic (I-CT) 2008-09-20 @ 13:06:19
Who is the independent candidate?

By: ejinsc (D-TX) 2008-09-20 @ 13:23:45
No independent - NH and ME's second district are the critical point that one or the other needs to win.

By: thepolitic (I-CT) 2008-09-20 @ 14:39:56
The second map is for calling the likelihood of a state going a particular way - the first is for the actual outcome.

By: ejinsc (D-TX) 2008-09-20 @ 14:56:32
Yeah, I know that. However, I don't know how to call them and also want to emphasize their importance in all of this.

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-09-21 @ 06:59:54
I don't think ME is in play - I thought it might have been, and because New Hampshire is next door, Mc might go to ME. But I think Mccain has more to worry about in VA, CO. I suspect Mc will still carry the Old Dominion - but he hasn't polled as well as he should ahve in CO. Whoever wins CO wins te election my humbl;e opinion.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2008 President	47/56	21/56	68/112	60.7%	15	55	1082	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	24/52	4/52	28/104	26.9%	4	-	162	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	12/49	4/49	16/98	16.3%	2	-	176	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	83/157	29/157	112/314	35.7%

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