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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-31 Version:29

Prediction Map
applemanmat Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
applemanmat Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem317
 
Rep221
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem248
 
Rep201
 
Ind0
 
Tos89
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+70+65000202252+65
Rep000-70-65243221-65
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
91473842
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Final Map:

Obama 53%
McCain 45%
Nader/Barr 1%
Others 1%

It's been a long race. I've been looking at the polls everyday for at least 6 months now. I really hope McCain wins, but it likely won't happen. Based on Obama's lack of experience and associations of Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, etc. I can't trust him. History has it that Obama will win, but likely not by a landslide. Obama will get 337 electoral votes at the most. Ihe wins Florida and Indiana it will add up to 375. But I can't see it happening.

In order for McCain to win he'll have to make a huge upset in Pennsylvania. That's the #1 most important state. But he's losing in the polls by over 10%, so the west part of the state would have to have a huge turnout. Overall for McCain to win the polls must be wrong. That could happen for 2 reasons: Bradley Effect and undecided voters. However, a high turnout for African-American is expected so it can shift the election.

Florida:

Current polls show a pure toss-up. But I disagree. Jewish voters are skeptical. There will also be a high turnout for old people. It was definitely going to McCain before this last month. So I'm really confident it will go to McCain mostly because the southern part of the state aren't enthusiastic for Obama.

Ohio:

Always a pure toss-up. But Bush actually has a 37% approval rating (which is actually pretty high), so McCain has a pretty dedicated base. McCain has really put a lot of effort in the last week, so it most likely will go McCain.

Pennsylvania:

If any Kerry state changes, it will be this one. McCain must win this state to win. If not, he will lose. The West part is racist. The only area that will go to Obama is Philly. I think it will be a lot closer than what the polls say.

New Hampshire:

McCain has a strong base here, and Obama isn't that popular. The polls for the Democratic primary were totally wrong so anything can happen.

Colorado:

Obama has a strong base here. Not to mention, Bush didn't win by much. Also, even when McCain was winning in the polls he still wasn't getting close. So, it will most likely go to Obama.

North Carolina/Virginia:

African American turnout will decide these 2 states. The 2 haven't voted Republican in a while and there are alot of racism, so it will be close. Anyone's game.

Missouri/Nevada:

Both are bellwhethers so it will go to whoever wins. Missouri is too close in the polls. So if Obama wins, he will win this state by less than 1%.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Republican08 (R-CT) 2008-10-31 @ 21:14:32
thank you applemanmat, you have inspired me to redraw the map, your sense is very logical, if mccain wins the states the big 3 left is either colorado, or virginia? what happens if he doesnt get it hail mary for pennsylvania? i feel it but its one of those all outs thats got this election a real nail bighter because of the bradley effect.prediction Map

 By: pace (D-IL) 2008-10-31 @ 21:17:33
Nice map...minus MO.prediction Map

 By: applemanmat (R-NJ) 2008-10-31 @ 21:32:16
If McCain doesn't get Pennsylvania, but wins all the other toss-ups, it will be a tie 269-269. McCain would have to pray hispanics don't turnout and win New Mexico or something.prediction Map

 By: Republican08 (R-CT) 2008-10-31 @ 21:37:56
I really do feel a possible Bradley Effect happening in PA the hard part is the demographics around Scranton and there love towards Joe Biden might shift it, that would be devestating.prediction Map

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) 2008-10-31 @ 23:32:37
Nevada is trending strongly towards Obama in more recent polling. Even Arizona is getting too close for comfort for the McCain campaign. No sign that Pennsylvania is going to break its recent trend of voting Democratic in Presidential elections. I just can't see McCain pulling this one out absent something drastic happening. The Republicans would do well not to do damage to their political brand in these final days, by not going overboard on Obama. Take the loss gracefully.prediction Map

 By: applemanmat (R-NJ) 2008-11-24 @ 18:34:03
I guess the polls weren't wrong after all. Oh well at least it will be more easy to predict next election. We now know that Pennsylvania and New Hampshire won't ever go Republican. Any state McCain got in this election is an automatic Republican state. As for the 2012 election, if Obama has low approval ratings than the Republican will obviously win all the close states in 2008.

Romney 2012!!!
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-25 @ 00:14:50
Automatic Republican?? Like Missouri?? How about against incumbent President Obama?prediction Map

 By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-11-25 @ 04:00:44
When you're so low in the Electoral College, you try to be positive and think you can't get any lower...prediction Map

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-11-25 @ 12:31:25
Franken/Coleman close close

210 votes separate them with 3000 challenged for mostly bogus reasons. This one will be the last race finished after the Georgia vote.

We shall see.....
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 17 17T
P 2012 President 50/56 36/56 86/112 76.8% pie 31 2 591T
P 2012 Senate 28/33 16/33 44/66 66.7% pie 21 2 211T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 11 1 24T
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 14/52 49/104 47.1% pie 5 - 75T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 3 177 37T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 28 2 100T
P 2010 Governor 36/37 28/37 64/74 86.5% pie 15 2 5T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 14 1T
P 2008 President 51/56 40/56 91/112 81.3% pie 29 4 200T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 12/33 44/66 66.7% pie 11 4 281T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 6 4 86T
Aggregate Predictions 293/334 189/334 482/668 72.2% pie


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