Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-02 Version:16

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	375
Rep	163
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	286
Rep	157
Ind	0
Tos	95

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+10	0	+123	0	0	0	20	2	252	+123
Rep	0	0	0	-10	0	-123	21	3	163	-123
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
100	50	43	4	3

Analysis

This prediction is based off a 6.5% Obama national victory. Tossups are margins less than 5, leans 5-10, strong greater than 10%.

Some noteables
North Carolina Obama +2.2%
Virginia Obama +7.3%
Missouri Obama +1.4%
Pennsylvania Obama +8.6%
Ohio Obama +3.7%
Nevada Obama +4.1%
Florida Obama +3.5%
Indiana Obama + 0.8%

South Dakota McCain +3.8%
North Dakota McCain +2.7%
Montana McCain + 1.8%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	3	4	82	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	14/36	45/72	62.5%	2	1	145	T	300
2012 President	56/56	46/56	102/112	91.1%	1	2	47	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	1	2	40	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	24/37	58/74	78.4%	4	1	86	T	456
2010 Governor	37/37	26/37	63/74	85.1%	2	1	11	T	312
2008 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	16	2	13	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	20/33	53/66	80.3%	4	2	57	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	10/11	21/22	95.5%	2	2	3	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	158	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	15	2	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	10	1	44	T	312
2004 President	49/56	33/56	82/112	73.2%	2	139	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	440/463	315/463	755/926	81.5%

Links

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