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Date of Prediction: 2008-09-28 Version:1

Prediction Map
kevinatcausa Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
kevinatcausa Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem269
 
Rep269
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem255
 
Rep240
 
Ind0
 
Tos43
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+30+21-10-4192248+17
Rep+10+4-30-21283265-17
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
76442741
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Probably the only unusual thing about this prediction relative to the others on the site is that I see NM/CO going to Obama even though NH switches to McCain. This is based on two hunches:

(1) NH is a state where it seemed like Obama dramatically underperformed polls in the primaries.

(2) Just a sort of vague feeling that if any state is a "fit" for McCain to a much greater extent then it was be for Bush, that state would be New Hampshire. (Then again, I'd put Virginia a close 2nd on this list, and the recent polling results there suggest I may have no idea what I'm talking about there).


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 48/56 28/56 76/112 67.9% pie 1 37 671T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 17/33 49/66 74.2% pie 2 8 185T
P 2004 President 55/56 41/56 96/112 85.7% pie 3 2 34T
Aggregate Predictions 135/145 86/145 221/290 76.2% pie


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