Election 2008 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-09-28 Version:1

Prediction Map
kevinatcausa Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
kevinatcausa Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	269
Rep	269
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	255
Rep	240
Ind	0
Tos	43

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+3	0	+21	-1	0	-4	19	2	248	+17
Rep	+1	0	+4	-3	0	-21	28	3	265	-17
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
76	44	27	4	1

Analysis

Probably the only unusual thing about this prediction relative to the others on the site is that I see NM/CO going to Obama even though NH switches to McCain. This is based on two hunches:

(1) NH is a state where it seemed like Obama dramatically underperformed polls in the primaries.

(2) Just a sort of vague feeling that if any state is a "fit" for McCain to a much greater extent then it was be for Bush, that state would be New Hampshire. (Then again, I'd put Virginia a close 2nd on this list, and the recent polling results there suggest I may have no idea what I'm talking about there).

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2008 President	48/56	28/56	76/112	67.9%	1	37	671	T
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	17/33	49/66	74.2%	2	8	185	T
2004 President	55/56	41/56	96/112	85.7%	3	2	34	T
Aggregate Predictions	135/145	86/145	221/290	76.2%

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