Well...this will probably be my last map update for the campaign season.

the swing states are now the following: NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, all 2004 red states, obviously.

I'm thinking about putting IN as lean McCain, and having CO and VA as lean Obama, but I'm trying to hold out for a modest defeat, not a blowout.

I think the finish line will reveal Obama winning by 4% in the popular vote and 338-200 in the Electoral College. I think this is reasonable considering how relatively polarized the different regions of the country are.


I'll start with Florida...I wept over putting this one into the Demicratic column, but alas I'm coming to grips with reality that Obama won't just win, he'll win comfortably, and that includes picking up Florida.

North Carolina - Honestly I'm not surprised by how close the race is due to all the college towns and Obama's appeal. What I am surprised is that he actually does lead here currently. I do think that given it's GOP history and it's lack of a Fairfax, or one that's big and flying leftward, that McCain will hang on. Unless a large amount of RURAL, CONSERVATIVE, WHITE voters STAY HOME en masse, I don't see a blue NC when the real Nov. 4 poll comes in. Pat McCrory might actually help McCain rather than the other way around.

Virginia - quickly becoming the next New Jersey...polls showing Obama in the double digits is really depressing me...not that I think he'll win by that margin, but that he'll defintely win VA.

Ohio - always around the national average or a tad more GOP, Obama wins.

Missouri - I think rural, white, conservative voters in the end will save McCain on Election Night.

Indiana - very frighteningly close. the only state above the Mason Dixon line we will probably win. I find it shocking that a rural, conservative state is this close.



Colorado - pretty much GONE. the conservative base won't turn out as much handing it to Obama.

Nevada - Close, but will go to Obama in the end.

Any state that voted for Gore AND Kerry - GONE from the moment Bush won a second term on Election Night 2004.

Iowa - GONE

New Mexico - GONE

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